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Post by Guidas on Aug 2, 2021 16:22:59 GMT -5
Here's the visual for that (click to expand): I added trend to that, one that has a little (but not too much flexibility!). There is an evolutionary track for players and he seems to be on it. Like yourself, I don't think it's the end of the world. It will be interesting to see what he decides at the end of the year. That will probably be conditioned on how the rest of this season goes for him. I've got to believe it depends on whether the CBA will yield a universal DH or not. He won't know unless the Players Union and MLB announce an agreement before or directly after the World Series. That seems unlikely. In the absence of that, the teams that would be in the market for a DH and willing to pay in excess of $20M are exceedingly small. |
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Post by blizzards39 on Aug 2, 2021 19:19:15 GMT -5
Nice needed off day looks like it may be prosperous.
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Post by 75tillnow on Aug 2, 2021 20:47:26 GMT -5
Nice needed off day looks like it may be prosperous. This is an important point -- Toronto lost and, as of now, looks like so did TB and the Yanks (to the Orioles?? God Forbid!). This means we are only one game behind TB and 5 up in the lost column to the Yanks and Jays. In other words, I hope everyone is feeling better now. We have reinforcements coming and there are 55 games left -- thats 1/3 of the season. Besides, an actual pennant race is so much more fun! |
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 2, 2021 23:52:46 GMT -5
Nice needed off day looks like it may be prosperous. This is an important point -- Toronto lost and, as of now, looks like so did TB and the Yanks (to the Orioles?? God Forbid!). This means we are only one game behind TB and 5 up in the lost column to the Yanks and Jays. In other words, I hope everyone is feeling better now. We have reinforcements coming and there are 55 games left -- thats 1/3 of the season. Besides, an actual pennant race is so much more fun! Nice half game gain on all the competition on a day off!! |
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,830 
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Post by cdj on Aug 3, 2021 0:08:33 GMT -5
Yankees also lost Cole to covid and Urshela to a hamstring
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 3, 2021 10:51:31 GMT -5
Either that or he looks like someone who is in a slump. His xwOBAs have followed a very smooth trajectory, save for the 2020 outlier:
2015: .382 2016: .393 2017: .423 2018: .412 2019: .389 2020: .316 2021: .368
His 2017 peak was his age 29 season, a very typical peak. He's 33 now. He might buck the trend - occasionally guys do - but there would be nothing unusual about this pattern continuing through a pretty much linear decline.
Having said that, I think the team is fine either way. If he opts out, they have money to add more offense (Schwarber, for one, looks like he's on the about-to-peak portion of the same trajectory); if he doesn't, he should still be decent next season, if not quite the hitter he was 3-4 years ago.
It's pretty obvious that he's not as good as he was when he was almost the best hitter in the league. I just think a lot of the criticism is overreaction. He isn't in free-fall mode. Right now, he's just in a slump.
I wonder how much the 60 game season last year is affecting players this year?
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Post by beasleyrockah on Aug 3, 2021 12:40:59 GMT -5
JD has hit .260/.330/.479 since last season started (669 PA's). This year has been much better than last year, but most of that was from his great start in April. Since April ended, JD's hit .264/.326/.459 over his last 325 PA's. You can't just throw out his incredible April, it's a reminder he can still be a dominant hitter, but recently that run was the outlier. If he continues hitting at his post-April pace, there's no chance he opts out - or if he does, I'd be thrilled at that point. He needs to get hot and go on a run.
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