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Post by costpet on Jul 12, 2022 6:41:50 GMT -5
Baseball drafts are a far bigger crap shoot than any of the other leagues. How many of our number 1s never made it to the majors? Bloom has had a much bigger success with the International signings. So, I wouldn't get too excited about who they draft, at least not initially.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jul 12, 2022 7:42:39 GMT -5
Baseball drafts are a far bigger crap shoot than any of the other leagues. How many of our number 1s never made it to the majors? Bloom has had a much bigger success with the International signings. So, I wouldn't get too excited about who they draft, at least not initially. Then this thread is not for you |
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Post by borisman on Jul 12, 2022 8:08:08 GMT -5
Food for thought: Would Kumar Rocker be ranked ahead of Yorke or just behind?
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Post by texs31 on Jul 12, 2022 8:11:55 GMT -5
Reading through this thread and few things continue to strike me oddly:
1. That some still seem to focus on the #X (in this case 35) pick as the player you can get with that pick and not the slot money associated with it. That extra money could actually help you get MULTIPLE players, not just 1.
2. When referencing a certain pick spot we talk about the players historically taken in that spot as though that is the correct measurement of potential value (this happens in all sports tbh). One person's #35 pick is another person's #36 pick. Why only look at one draft slot when it's a range of players you now have access to?
3. The ROI of a draft pick (or any player, especially a prospect, for that matter) is NOT just their WAR (or any other statistical measure one might chose to use). At the risk of dehumanizing them for a moment, they are an asset that can help improve your team in a number of ways. Take Shaun Anderson as a quick example. He was our 3rd round pick in 2016. He never pitched for Boston and has a career WAR of -1.1. By that measure, the Sox got no value for that pick (and associated bonus money) and the "league contribution" was even worse. HOWEVER, he was a key piece in the trade for Eduardo Nunez who gave us .7 WAR the rest of that year and helped Boston finish 1st in the AL EAST (before losing to Houston in the ALDS). Doesn't that make the value of that pick to the Sox much better than the 0 he added in WAR? Any time you are adding an asset of, at least, perceived value it's a good thing and worthy of some level of excitement.
ADD - I know some may respond with the saying Nunez then produced -2.3 WAR over the next 1.5 seasons and that I'm cherry picking a data point. I would pre-counter with the fact that they traded for the 2017 season. Everything after that was a return on their FA signing (nothing to say they wouldn't have signed him as an FA even if they haven't traded for him at the prior deadline).
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jul 12, 2022 8:12:57 GMT -5
Food for thought: Would Kumar Rocker be ranked ahead of Yorke or just behind? He'd have to be behind almost by default, I'd think. If he falls to 24, I can't see him being ranked in the top 100 by nearly any outlet, and yorke is pretty locked in around 50 in most of those |
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Post by borisman on Jul 12, 2022 8:28:54 GMT -5
Food for thought: Would Kumar Rocker be ranked ahead of Yorke or just behind? He'd have to be behind almost by default, I'd think. If he falls to 24, I can't see him being ranked in the top 100 by nearly any outlet, and yorke is pretty locked in around 50 in most of those If he falls to 24 it won't be because of his talent. If he was healthy last year and singed with the Mets he'd be a top 50 candidate, easily, so arguably he would be around the Yorke range, if not ahead. |
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jul 12, 2022 8:39:09 GMT -5
He'd have to be behind almost by default, I'd think. If he falls to 24, I can't see him being ranked in the top 100 by nearly any outlet, and yorke is pretty locked in around 50 in most of those If he falls to 24 it won't be because of his talent. If he was healthy last year and singed with the Mets he'd be a top 50 candidate, easily, so arguably he would be around the Yorke range, if not ahead. I agree it would be because of health. Wouldn't that extreme uncertainty factor into rankings? |
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Post by texs31 on Jul 12, 2022 8:42:53 GMT -5
But the risk that factors into his fall would also factor into his ranking, would it not?
For 1 data point, Kiley McDaniel would not have him in his Top 100 per his Final Top 300 rankings.
EDIT - FASTfreddysthefuture2003 (amiright??) beat me to it.
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Post by borisman on Jul 12, 2022 8:52:00 GMT -5
If he falls to 24 it won't be because of his talent. If he was healthy last year and singed with the Mets he'd be a top 50 candidate, easily, so arguably he would be around the Yorke range, if not ahead. I agree it would be because of health. Wouldn't that extreme uncertainty factor into rankings? To a point, absolutely, similar to positional value. |
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 12, 2022 9:05:44 GMT -5
Food for thought: Would Kumar Rocker be ranked ahead of Yorke or just behind? Certainly behind for me. Obviously he could move up quickly, I don't know that Rocker comes in as a Top-100 guy. He might've been a Top 50 if he'd signed, but his injury situation might've also played out very differently. We can't just ignore the reason he didn't sign. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 12, 2022 9:33:31 GMT -5
Yeah, pick 1, regardless of who it is, probably debuts in the 5-9 range? Don't hold me to that though.
Just consider that 23 teams will have passed on drafting the player. Unless it's an "it's because he was insisting on top 5 pick money"-type thing, that's not going to be a top 100 guy.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 12, 2022 9:47:14 GMT -5
Man Keith Law was harsh on my guy Reggie Crawford. I think it’s worth taking him at 79 . We’ll see how things pan out. That would be awesome if they grab Rocker at 24. So they hit on the guy they wanted last year according to Law. I have a feeling Connor Preliep won’t make it to 24. I can’t wait. I feel like a kid waiting for Christmas Eve.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 12, 2022 12:08:32 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Jul 12, 2022 12:10:50 GMT -5
Sure am getting "we're taking Rocker at 24 if he's available" vibes. How far overslot would they go to do it?
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jul 12, 2022 12:12:00 GMT -5
Strange they would be stating it publicly but thanks for the tidbit 😄😄
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 12, 2022 12:14:38 GMT -5
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jul 12, 2022 12:36:42 GMT -5
Man Keith Law was harsh on my guy Reggie Crawford. I think it’s worth taking him at 79 . We’ll see how things pan out. That would be awesome if they grab Rocker at 24. So they hit on the guy they wanted last year according to Law. I have a feeling Connor Preliep won’t make it to 24. I can’t wait. I feel like a kid waiting for Christmas Eve. Curious where he said that. Also, Reggie just dropped this |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 12, 2022 12:43:35 GMT -5
Man Keith Law was harsh on my guy Reggie Crawford. I think it’s worth taking him at 79 . We’ll see how things pan out. That would be awesome if they grab Rocker at 24. So they hit on the guy they wanted last year according to Law. I have a feeling Connor Preliep won’t make it to 24. I can’t wait. I feel like a kid waiting for Christmas Eve. Curios where he said that. Also, Reggie just dropped this Interesting. There are a lot of guys that have entered the portal because they want to have options for if they don't like where they get drafted (if they get drafted at all), but I don't think I've seen all too many legit draft prospect guys actually commit from the portal. Wonder if this means he's going regardless. |
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 12, 2022 13:00:34 GMT -5
Curios where he said that. Also, Reggie just dropped this Interesting. There are a lot of guys that have entered the portal because they want to have options for if they don't like where they get drafted (if they get drafted at all), but I don't think I've seen all too many legit draft prospect guys actually commit from the portal. Wonder if this means he's going regardless. No it doesn’t mean that with any certainty, but the fact that you even have to wonder if that is the case shows that it gives him leverage in contract negotiations. Smart move IMO, although I really hope he doesn’t go back to school so we can count him as a UConn player. |
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Post by Guidas on Jul 12, 2022 13:00:48 GMT -5
Baseball drafts are a far bigger crap shoot than any of the other leagues. How many of our number 1s never made it to the majors? Bloom has had a much bigger success with the International signings. So, I wouldn't get too excited about who they draft, at least not initially. Then this thread is not for you Just because it's a crapshoot doesn't mean we shouldn't get excited. I mean, we all have our faves, there are a few guys who could fall and a few others that we can dream on. |
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 12, 2022 13:09:10 GMT -5
Then this thread is not for you Just because it's a crapshoot doesn't mean we shouldn't get excited. I mean, we all have our faves, there are a few guys who could fall and a few others that we can dream on. Researching and following the MLB, NBA, and NFL drafts kill a lot of time for me at work every year. A debt I can never repay. |
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 12, 2022 13:12:37 GMT -5
Man Keith Law was harsh on my guy Reggie Crawford. I think it’s worth taking him at 79 . We’ll see how things pan out. That would be awesome if they grab Rocker at 24. So they hit on the guy they wanted last year according to Law. I have a feeling Connor Preliep won’t make it to 24. I can’t wait. I feel like a kid waiting for Christmas Eve. Curious where he said that. Also, Reggie just dropped this His recent list. Go check it out. I am not quoting him it was in the athletic , basically he has one pitch. He is unknown. It’s in the athletic. I think he’s at 80 rank. |
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 12, 2022 13:18:06 GMT -5
Hey I remember when Dan Shaunessy didn’t want Theo to bring in Papi. Then like 3 years later he went on the same show and said he was wrong about Ortiz. I laughed so dam hard.
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jul 12, 2022 13:29:39 GMT -5
Interesting. There are a lot of guys that have entered the portal because they want to have options for if they don't like where they get drafted (if they get drafted at all), but I don't think I've seen all too many legit draft prospect guys actually commit from the portal. Wonder if this means he's going regardless. No it doesn’t mean that with any certainty, but the fact that you even have to wonder if that is the case shows that it gives him leverage in contract negotiations. Smart move IMO, although I really hope he doesn’t go back to school so we can count him as a UConn player. Jordan Sprinkle SS from UCSB was another player I saw that is draft eligible, also a top 100ish prospect, that dropped something similar over the weekend with his announcement to Arkansas. Not sure how much is posturing or not, but have to figure these SEC schools (LSU has an absurd amount of xfers too) is giving away NIL deals, and even if its only $50- $100k. That's enormous for kids who aren't on full scholarship to play a year in the SEC and attend school for free, as a fall back option if they don't get a bonus that are happy with. We've even seen in the case of SS Maui Ahuna, xfer from a bad program, Kansas, to Tennessee for a chance to play his draft year in the SEC for free. Paul Sekenes from Air Force is another rumored star headed to Tenn, Jacob Wilson from Grand Canyon is in the portal, both of those guys are big time College National Team prospects that could follow suit too. |
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Post by bcsox on Jul 12, 2022 13:50:11 GMT -5
Maybe it’s because Belichick has warped my draft brain but when I see Tobini mentioning a certain draftable player, I assume there is now no shot they are taking him even if he is available at 24.
With regard to Bloom being risk averse with longer term deals with pitchers, am I correct in that he has only handed out one true multi year deal to a pitcher since he arrived…and probably a surprising one at that..
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