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2022 MLB Draft
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Post by incandenza on Jul 12, 2022 14:10:56 GMT -5
Maybe it’s because Belichick has warped my draft brain but when I see Tobini mentioning a certain draftable player, I assume there is now no shot they are taking him even if he is available at 24. With regard to Bloom being risk averse with longer term deals with pitchers, am I correct in that he has only handed out one true multi year deal to a pitcher since he arrived…and probably a surprising one at that.. If Bloom is loathe to spend big FA money on pitchers, doesn't that make cost-controlled pitching (i.e., the kind you draft) even more valuable to the organization? |
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Post by bcsox on Jul 12, 2022 14:20:26 GMT -5
Maybe it’s because Belichick has warped my draft brain but when I see Tobini mentioning a certain draftable player, I assume there is now no shot they are taking him even if he is available at 24.
With regard to Bloom being risk averse with longer term deals with pitchers, am I correct in that he has only handed out one true multi year deal to a pitcher since he arrived…and probably a surprising one at that..
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 12, 2022 14:47:34 GMT -5
That's a low stakes trade, but I think the Royals probably got back like double the value of the 35th pick. The $2.2 million the Braves still have to spend is a significant cost relative to the historic payoff from #35 picks. As much as I wanted to trade for draft picks, only 6 #35 picks have had a bWAR of at least 5, and two of them are old friends Johnny Damon (1st with 56.3 bWAR) and Mark Bellhorn (4th place with 8 bWAR) In fact we have the 8th place #35 pick on our roster right now. It's not the #35 that matters nearly as much as the extra money to sign overslot guys. |
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Post by jaffinator on Jul 12, 2022 15:10:54 GMT -5
Reading through this thread and few things continue to strike me oddly: 1. That some still seem to focus on the #X (in this case 35) pick as the player you can get with that pick and not the slot money associated with it. That extra money could actually help you get MULTIPLE players, not just 1. 2. When referencing a certain pick spot we talk about the players historically taken in that spot as though that is the correct measurement of potential value (this happens in all sports tbh). One person's #35 pick is another person's #36 pick. Why only look at one draft slot when it's a range of players you now have access to? 3. The ROI of a draft pick (or any player, especially a prospect, for that matter) is NOT just their WAR (or any other statistical measure one might chose to use). At the risk of dehumanizing them for a moment, they are an asset that can help improve your team in a number of ways. Take Shaun Anderson as a quick example. He was our 3rd round pick in 2016. He never pitched for Boston and has a career WAR of -1.1. By that measure, the Sox got no value for that pick (and associated bonus money) and the "league contribution" was even worse. HOWEVER, he was a key piece in the trade for Eduardo Nunez who gave us .7 WAR the rest of that year and helped Boston finish 1st in the AL EAST (before losing to Houston in the ALDS). Doesn't that make the value of that pick to the Sox much better than the 0 he added in WAR? Any time you are adding an asset of, at least, perceived value it's a good thing and worthy of some level of excitement. ADD - I know some may respond with the saying Nunez then produced -2.3 WAR over the next 1.5 seasons and that I'm cherry picking a data point. I would pre-counter with the fact that they traded for the 2017 season. Everything after that was a return on their FA signing (nothing to say they wouldn't have signed him as an FA even if they haven't traded for him at the prior deadline). People do this because it's by far the easiest way to conceptualize and compare value. The amount of time it takes to look up these numbers is a couple of seconds as opposed to what would essentially be equivalent to publishing original research in sports science. If you're looking to get hired somewhere as an intro data guy, go ahead and do it. But if I'm looking for a quick way to compare the 10th and 24th pick, this is a convenient and accurate enough way to do it. I'm not even convinced that comparing just by player WAR would be biased. It may be a noisy measure, but there's error in all directions. |
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 12, 2022 16:17:20 GMT -5
It would be hard to complain if Rocker was the pick at 24. It is hard to imagine him not ever making it to the show though I am certainly not predicting his effectiveness. Regarding the medicals, show me the pitcher who isnt one pitch away from some injury issue. You roll the dice sometimes snake eyes and sometimes seven.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 12, 2022 16:25:54 GMT -5
I think our first 5 picks should all be OF. That’s our weakest position in the system.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 12, 2022 16:32:39 GMT -5
Food for thought: Would Kumar Rocker be ranked ahead of Yorke or just behind? I would rank him 7th. Mayer Bello Casas Yorke Rafaela Bleis Rocker Walter Mata Murphy |
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,607
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Post by radiohix on Jul 12, 2022 18:07:53 GMT -5
I think our first 5 picks should all be OF. That’s our weakest position in the system. You never draft for needs. Period. You draft the best talent available. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 12, 2022 18:28:31 GMT -5
Toboni talked about Rocker because he was asked about him. That's all. There's no reason to read into anything he said one way or another.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jul 12, 2022 19:20:09 GMT -5
If the Sox were to punt on picks 4-10, here's our cap space if allocated to the 1st round and 2nd Round
Allocated to 1st Round
$4,735,600
$1,905,500
$820,000
$617,200
Allocated to 2nd Round
$2,974,900
$3,666,200
$820,000
$617,200
If the Sox were to punt on picks 2CB-10, here's our cap space if allocated to the 1st round and 2nd Round
Allocated to 1st Round
$6,135,600
$1,905,500
$20,000
$17,200
Allocated to 2nd Round
$4,374,900 (Allocated 2CB-3rd Money)
$3,666,200 (Allocated 4-10 Money)
$20,000
$17,200
Good news is the Sox have enough money to pretty much sign a T5 player, or even two T20 players.
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 12, 2022 20:48:57 GMT -5
Toboni talked about Rocker because he was asked about him. That's all. There's no reason to read into anything he said one way or another. I am not suggesting Rocker is the pick if he is there, but Tobini was probably asked about Rocker because Sox scouts have been at all of his starts. I would call it a reasonable question. |
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 13, 2022 7:05:24 GMT -5
I know why teams do this, I've been following the draft for years, but recently (as in this morning) I've been questioning the strategy of punting on 4-10 picks to sign one guy? if the draft is such a crap shoot wouldn't it make sense to find guys in that range with more potential, raw tools willing to take slot? Identifying HS talent that wants to play and start their pro career? and get a much larger infusion of raw talent into the system? Could a strategy like that bare more fruit years down the line?
Of course, I suppose if the draft is such a crap shoot, you could argue that you're not necessarily punting picks 4-10 either. And, we've seen some of those guys turn into MLBers....so just ignore everything I just said.
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Post by bosox904 on Jul 13, 2022 9:13:39 GMT -5
Yeah, pick 1, regardless of who it is, probably debuts in the 5-9 range? Don't hold me to that though. Just consider that 23 teams will have passed on drafting the player. Unless it's an "it's because he was insisting on top 5 pick money"-type thing, that's not going to be a top 100 guy. If I kept track correctly, Adley and Torkelson are the only players to be ranked top 10 the following year. Most seem to be in the early to late teens. From listening to and reading various sources, I don't think anyone views any of them on the level of a Adley or Tork. |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 13, 2022 9:25:38 GMT -5
Yeah, pick 1, regardless of who it is, probably debuts in the 5-9 range? Don't hold me to that though. Just consider that 23 teams will have passed on drafting the player. Unless it's an "it's because he was insisting on top 5 pick money"-type thing, that's not going to be a top 100 guy. If I kept track correctly, Adley and Torkelson are the only players to be ranked top 10 the following year. Most seem to be in the early to late teens. From listening to and reading various sources, I don't think anyone views any of them on the level of a Adley or Tork. There may be people who view Druw Jones as a better long-term prospect than Tork (though probably very few who would prefer him to what they thought of Adley), but the fact that those two guys were college players and therefore much closer to the majors is probably why they were immediately ranked in the top 10. Also, not worth making a whole new post about, but Peyton Graham who may be "my guy" in this class is 5th on FG's list. |
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Post by bosox904 on Jul 13, 2022 9:36:17 GMT -5
If I kept track correctly, Adley and Torkelson are the only players to be ranked top 10 the following year. Most seem to be in the early to late teens. From listening to and reading various sources, I don't think anyone views any of them on the level of a Adley or Tork. There may be people who view Druw Jones as a better long-term prospect than Tork (though probably very few who would prefer him to what they thought of Adley), but the fact that those two guys were college players and therefore much closer to the majors is probably why they were immediately ranked in the top 10. Also, not worth making a whole new post about, but Peyton Graham who may be "my guy" in this class is 5th on FG's list. That's a good point too about them coming out of high school. I could see Jones being there now that I look at MLB's grades. They have a 65 overall, which would be top 4 if he was in a system now. |
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Post by southcoastghost on Jul 13, 2022 9:42:29 GMT -5
Also, not worth making a whole new post about, but Peyton Graham who may be "my guy" in this class is 5th on FG's list. I like Graham too, but to be fair that list hasn't been updated since the start of the season, as Robert Moore is 8th on it |
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 13, 2022 9:57:49 GMT -5
I think our first 5 picks should all be OF. That’s our weakest position in the system. You never draft for needs. Period. You draft the best talent available. Correct. Thats a good way to have a crappy farm for years. It's not the NFL or NBA. However, it does seem like the best player that falls to them will probably be an Outfielder so in a way it works out. I'd be super pumped to see them end up with Rocker but I doubt he'll fall that far. |
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 13, 2022 10:00:56 GMT -5
Sure am getting "we're taking Rocker at 24 if he's available" vibes. How far overslot would they go to do it? How much leverage would Rocker really have? 2nd time around you generally have some kind of parameters of what it would take but the ability to take a hard line stance generally lessens for the player/agent due to lack of leverage. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 13, 2022 10:47:34 GMT -5
Yeah, pick 1, regardless of who it is, probably debuts in the 5-9 range? Don't hold me to that though. Just consider that 23 teams will have passed on drafting the player. Unless it's an "it's because he was insisting on top 5 pick money"-type thing, that's not going to be a top 100 guy. If I kept track correctly, Adley and Torkelson are the only players to be ranked top 10 the following year. Most seem to be in the early to late teens. From listening to and reading various sources, I don't think anyone views any of them on the level of a Adley or Tork. I'm talking where the Red Sox pick will debut on the team list. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 13, 2022 10:48:56 GMT -5
Toboni talked about Rocker because he was asked about him. That's all. There's no reason to read into anything he said one way or another. I am not suggesting Rocker is the pick if he is there, but Tobini was probably asked about Rocker because Sox scouts have been at all of his starts. I would call it a reasonable question. Oh definitely reasonable. FWIW though, given the crowd was beat writers and me, my guess is that the question came about because of Rocker's profile more than because they had scouts at his games. |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 13, 2022 13:34:34 GMT -5
Another top HS prospect has taken his name out of the draft: Paxton Kling (LSU commit). Joins Andrew Dutkanych (Vandy), RJ Austion (Vandy), and Anthony Silva (TCU) as notable prospects to pull out of the draft.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jul 13, 2022 15:21:58 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 13, 2022 15:44:34 GMT -5
I sincerely doubt that 23 teams will pass on Rocker prior to Boston's pick. Especially if GMs are saying that he could be in the majors late in the season - I dont believe he will be, but I think this guy is going top 10. |
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 13, 2022 16:00:26 GMT -5
I sincerely doubt that 23 teams will pass on Rocker prior to Boston's pick. Especially if GMs are saying that he could be in the majors late in the season - I dont believe he will be, but I think this guy is going top 10. I wasnt aware Rocker was a Borras client. Theoretically we are talking about slotting but Borras is probably a factor that makes it easier to pass on Rocker. |
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Post by Guidas on Jul 13, 2022 16:15:33 GMT -5
If Rocker truly projects as a #2 and the medicals look good, the teams picking before the Sox would be negligent to pass up on him. Hell, if he ends up as a high-end closer that's still a great pick-up for any pick after 15 or so.
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