SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
hank
Rookie
Posts: 111
|
Post by hank on Sept 23, 2022 9:47:04 GMT -5
I think perhaps a good pro comp for Ceddanne might be our own Enrique Hernandez? Hernandez is a career .240/.315/.420 slash line, plays good defense at multiple positions up the middle. Ceddanne has a higher ceiling I would say as he seems to have a bit more pop and sounds to be a better defender at SS than Hernandez but just a thought. It would be rather nice to have a guy similar to a prime Hernandez controlled for 6 years once Hernandez is gone. Could be. Which is why Rafaela is not going to be rushed when you have his comp under contract for next year. You really don't know how any of these guys will perform in the big leagues. Casas is off to a 4 for 42 start and he had over 300 AAA PA's
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
|
Post by nomar on Sept 23, 2022 12:32:51 GMT -5
I think perhaps a good pro comp for Ceddanne might be our own Enrique Hernandez? Hernandez is a career .240/.315/.420 slash line, plays good defense at multiple positions up the middle. Ceddanne has a higher ceiling I would say as he seems to have a bit more pop and sounds to be a better defender at SS than Hernandez but just a thought. It would be rather nice to have a guy similar to a prime Hernandez controlled for 6 years once Hernandez is gone. Could be. Which is why Rafaela is not going to be rushed when you have his comp under contract for next year. You really don't know how any of these guys will perform in the big leagues. Casas is off to a 4 for 42 start and he had over 300 AAA PA's Casas is also 1/26 on balls in play which is a rate he couldn’t replicate if he tried. Agreed that there is no reason to rush Rafaela though. Kiké will be here next year and I don’t expect to see Rafaela in the mix until 2024 or later.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Sept 23, 2022 12:39:59 GMT -5
Could be. Which is why Rafaela is not going to be rushed when you have his comp under contract for next year. You really don't know how any of these guys will perform in the big leagues. Casas is off to a 4 for 42 start and he had over 300 AAA PA's Casas is also 1/26 on balls in play which is a rate he couldn’t replicate if he tried. It's amazing - an .038 BABIP! If he had managed merely to turn 5 more of those balls in play into singles (he'd still have a lousy .231 BABIP), his batting line would be .214/.326/.429. That's a solidly above average hitter.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Sept 23, 2022 15:09:47 GMT -5
Casas is also 1/26 on balls in play which is a rate he couldn’t replicate if he tried. It's amazing - an .038 BABIP! If he had managed merely to turn 5 more of those balls in play into singles (he'd still have a lousy .231 BABIP), his batting line would be .214/.326/.429. That's a solidly above average hitter. Eh his quality of contact has been terrible, xBA of .181, xSLG of .282. He's not hit like an above average hitter, some bad BABIP luck or not.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Sept 23, 2022 16:01:32 GMT -5
Eh his quality of contact has been terrible, xBA of .181, xSLG of .282. He's not hit like an above average hitter, some bad BABIP luck or not. Hasn't he? He's got 3 home runs in 49 PAs and a 14% walk rate. And I only spotted him a .231 BABIP to get that above average line. That would be bad BABIP luck, even if his "natural" BABIP is on the low side; what he's actually had is off the scale.
I'd put it this way: if he can maintain a 14% walk rate and hit 35 homers a year I feel confident that he will stick as a starting first baseman.
ADD: This made me curious... Of all qualified hitters this season, only three have a BABIP below .231. The very lowest is .215, and that belongs to... Anthony Rizzo. Who overall is hitting .224/.337/.490, good for a 135 wRC+. That's kinda nuts.
You spotted him a BABIP that would be lucky based on the quality of contact he's actually had. Maybe his quality of contact has been unsustainably bad, and I agree his results have been unlucky beyond how he's performed. But his quality of contact has been awful, only two qualified guys in MLB have a lower xBA than he's had, Joey Gallo and Max Stassi, and they're hitting .176 and .180 respectively. Three guys have a worse xSLG, Austin Hedges, Victor Robles and and Geraldo Perdomo (C, CF, SS). Overall I'm not concerned with Casas I agree that his approach and promise look great to me, but arbitrarily assigning him singles to show how unlucky he's gotten paints an inaccurate picture.
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Oct 1, 2022 6:48:39 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Dec 29, 2022 11:12:20 GMT -5
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 6,423
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Dec 29, 2022 11:18:12 GMT -5
Small sample size aside that could be a very promising development since according to his advanced stats on his player page at Portland he had a 19.8 K% with just a 5.1 BB% in his 71 games played there. With his defensive prowess he is going to add value to an ML roster, if he can tweak his approach even a bit to be less free swinging enough to bolster his OBP even just a bit he can be an absolute stud.
|
|
|
Post by pappyman99 on Dec 29, 2022 11:26:54 GMT -5
Right now in terms of projecting if all goes well
.280/.330 with 25 home runs is his ceiling in my eyes.
That could change based off his performance this year since he has really skyrocketed over the last 18 months
|
|
|
Post by maxwellsdemon on Dec 29, 2022 12:31:04 GMT -5
Rafaela has become my binky because I treasure outfield defense abpve all else. Probably goes back to my days as a fifth grader shagging ball for the big kids (7th & 8th graders) for a chance to occasionally get to hit. My hero growing up was Jimmy Piersall - not for his batting with that ridiculous wide stance - but for his taking away hits from others. It's what I liked best about Freddy Lynn even though he was a great hitter and, of course, JBJ. Can't wait to see Cedanne patrolling center field in Boston, hopefully some time later iin 2023.
|
|
|
Post by bosoxnation on Dec 29, 2022 13:54:17 GMT -5
This is the player iâm most excited about besides Mikey Romero. I just hope he keeps doing his thing and is ready to take over CF in 2024. I think it would be awesome if we could pull that off, sign Kiké to another 1 year deal. Put him at SS and then hopefully Romero or Mayer take over in 2025. If we can have Devers, Romero/Mayer, Ceddanne, Casas and Yoshida all doing there thing by 2025 I think that we will then be able to build a powerhouse.
|
|
|
Post by awalkinthepark on Dec 29, 2022 14:06:05 GMT -5
I am probably in the minority here but if the Red Sox aren't going shell out the money for a premier free agent or trade any of their prospects, then I think they should be aggressive with their promotions. I realize Casas was hurt last year but I think they waited too long to call him up considering how bad their 1B situation was. The same goes for Rafaela, unless he completely falls on his face in the minors he should be getting a lot of reps at the major league level.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywaterinla on Dec 29, 2022 14:21:25 GMT -5
I am probably in the minority here but if the Red Sox aren't going shell out the money for a premier free agent or trade any of their prospects, then I think they should be aggressive with their promotions. I realize Casas was hurt last year but I think they waited too long to call him up considering how bad their 1B situation was. The same goes for Rafaela, unless he completely falls on his face in the minors he should be getting a lot of reps at the major league level. I think the belated call up with Casas was more injury related than being conservative. Otherwise, agreed on aggressive promotions. If Rafaela (or Mayer, Romero, Bleis, Paulino, etc) are tearing the cover off the ball in the first 2-3 months, they should be promoted to the next respective level. Let the kids play.
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 6,423
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Dec 29, 2022 14:30:42 GMT -5
I am probably in the minority here but if the Red Sox aren't going shell out the money for a premier free agent or trade any of their prospects, then I think they should be aggressive with their promotions. I realize Casas was hurt last year but I think they waited too long to call him up considering how bad their 1B situation was. The same goes for Rafaela, unless he completely falls on his face in the minors he should be getting a lot of reps at the major league level. If the Red Sox for some reason aren't going to attempt to lock up their own guys then wouldn't that be even more reason not to rush them up? You wouldn't want to rush up an unfinished player and lose a year of control. Theoretically you'd want to maximize how good they are in those 6 years of control not waste a year by calling them up before they're ready.
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Dec 29, 2022 18:53:41 GMT -5
I am probably in the minority here but if the Red Sox aren't going shell out the money for a premier free agent or trade any of their prospects, then I think they should be aggressive with their promotions. I realize Casas was hurt last year but I think they waited too long to call him up considering how bad their 1B situation was. The same goes for Rafaela, unless he completely falls on his face in the minors he should be getting a lot of reps at the major league level. Those two ideas (not spending money on free agents, aggressively promoting) have nothing to do with each other. The Red Sox don’t rush guys because of what’s going on with the Major League roster, they do it because rushing guys is often bad for their development. If anything, there’s a case they’ve been too aggressive lately.
|
|
|
Post by awalkinthepark on Dec 30, 2022 11:35:02 GMT -5
I am probably in the minority here but if the Red Sox aren't going shell out the money for a premier free agent or trade any of their prospects, then I think they should be aggressive with their promotions. I realize Casas was hurt last year but I think they waited too long to call him up considering how bad their 1B situation was. The same goes for Rafaela, unless he completely falls on his face in the minors he should be getting a lot of reps at the major league level. Those two ideas (not spending money on free agents, aggressively promoting) have nothing to do with each other. The Red Sox don’t rush guys because of what’s going on with the Major League roster, they do it because rushing guys is often bad for their development. If anything, there’s a case they’ve been too aggressive lately. It's not that all those things are related to one another, it's that development happens at the major league level too. And as far as 'rushing to the majors', I don't personally think anyone actually knows what counts as 'he was rushed' vs. 'he isn't good enough to be a major league player'. There are plenty of guys who have fantastic minor league stats but then struggle in the majors. Alternatively there are also guys that go directly from AA to the bigs and do well, like Michael Harris. 'Rushed to the majors' is one of those things that people tell themselves to explain why some young player struggles, when I actually think a lot of players just struggle because the transition from the minors to the majors is really difficult.
Obviously there needs to be some indication that a guy is ready. I use projections for that: ZiPS thinks Rafaela could put up a 90 OPS+ in the majors based on his minor league stats, which is a good enough indication to me that he is close to major league ready. If he is going to struggle over the first 1000 plate appearances of his career, and he probably will regardless of how much time he spends in the minors, I would rather the Sox get started on that sooner rather than later instead of giving playing time to free agent scrubs that won't be here in a 2 years anyway.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,123
|
Post by jimoh on Dec 30, 2022 13:03:33 GMT -5
It's not that all those things are related to one another, it's that development happens at the major league level too. And as far as 'rushing to the majors', I don't personally think anyone actually knows what counts as 'he was rushed' vs. 'he isn't good enough to be a major league player'. There are plenty of guys who have fantastic minor league stats but then struggle in the majors. Alternatively there are also guys that go directly from AA to the bigs and do well, like Michael Harris. 'Rushed to the majors' is one of those things that people tell themselves to explain why some young player struggles, when I actually think a lot of players just struggle because the transition from the minors to the majors is really difficult.
Obviously there needs to be some indication that a guy is ready. I use projections for that: ZiPS thinks Rafaela could put up a 90 OPS+ in the majors based on his minor league stats, which is a good enough indication to me that he is close to major league ready. If he is going to struggle over the first 1000 plate appearances of his career, and he probably will regardless of how much time he spends in the minors, I would rather the Sox get started on that sooner rather than later instead of giving playing time to free agent scrubs that won't be here in a 2 years anyway.
You really think the bolded part is true? You don't think that a guy who's never hit in AAA and had problems with his approach in AA wouldn't be better in 2024 and after if he's allowed to work on his weaknesses in AAA?
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 30, 2022 13:15:15 GMT -5
It’s tempting to trash the suggestion that Rafaela starts the season in Boston. He’s only had 284 at bats above single A. Also, if he has more to learn in the minors, then doing so there can only reduce the amount of time he’d struggle at the MLB level.
But I get it. Ceddanne, from a positional point of view is perfect for this roster. Plus defense I’m CF/SS. That exactly what we could use, but again I think Rafaela is just a year too soon.
|
|
|
Post by awalkinthepark on Dec 30, 2022 13:37:37 GMT -5
It's not that all those things are related to one another, it's that development happens at the major league level too. And as far as 'rushing to the majors', I don't personally think anyone actually knows what counts as 'he was rushed' vs. 'he isn't good enough to be a major league player'. There are plenty of guys who have fantastic minor league stats but then struggle in the majors. Alternatively there are also guys that go directly from AA to the bigs and do well, like Michael Harris. 'Rushed to the majors' is one of those things that people tell themselves to explain why some young player struggles, when I actually think a lot of players just struggle because the transition from the minors to the majors is really difficult.
Obviously there needs to be some indication that a guy is ready. I use projections for that: ZiPS thinks Rafaela could put up a 90 OPS+ in the majors based on his minor league stats, which is a good enough indication to me that he is close to major league ready. If he is going to struggle over the first 1000 plate appearances of his career, and he probably will regardless of how much time he spends in the minors, I would rather the Sox get started on that sooner rather than later instead of giving playing time to free agent scrubs that won't be here in a 2 years anyway.
You really think the bolded part is true? You don't think that a guy who's never hit in AAA and had problems with his approach in AA wouldn't be better in 2024 and after if he's allowed to work on his weaknesses in AAA? I think there is a lot of evidence that development happens at the major league level, yes. Very few players transition from the minors to the majors without any sort of hiccup, even really good prospects struggle for a few years before they put it together. That doesn't mean they should be in the minors.
I am not saying Rafaela is there yet, I don't think he should make the team out of ST. But I think he is close, and I would prefer the Red Sox be aggressive rather than conservative with their promotions.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 30, 2022 13:48:52 GMT -5
Rafaela's problem is that he needs to improve in not chasing pitches outside the zone. Consider that (using players' numbers at a single level, not combined) his 42% chase rate in Portland was second-worst in the system (no DSL) for hitters with at least 125 PA at a level, behind only Jimenez's 44%. His 38% in Greenville was 6th worst (Ronaldo, Castellanos Portland, Castellanos Worcester).
This isn't "he's got a few things to work on." This is "he's got a major flaw in his game that's going to get him toasted in MLB without enough dev time."
|
|
|
Post by GyIantosca on Dec 30, 2022 14:00:28 GMT -5
I’d Gedman the type of hitting instructor that s cleans up prospects swings? Is he old school like Boggs the Charlie Howe school? Or is he all about analytics? If he is in AA with a hole in his swing are the odds against him?
Betts cleaned up his swing and kicked ass fast. Who was a major factor in his growth in Boston?
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 30, 2022 14:48:15 GMT -5
I am probably in the minority here but if the Red Sox aren't going shell out the money for a premier free agent or trade any of their prospects, then I think they should be aggressive with their promotions. I realize Casas was hurt last year but I think they waited too long to call him up considering how bad their 1B situation was. The same goes for Rafaela, unless he completely falls on his face in the minors he should be getting a lot of reps at the major league level. If the Red Sox for some reason aren't going to attempt to lock up their own guys then wouldn't that be even more reason not to rush them up? You wouldn't want to rush up an unfinished player and lose a year of control. Theoretically you'd want to maximize how good they are in those 6 years of control not waste a year by calling them up before they're ready. Fire Bloom right now if he won't call up a guy because he wants to maximize a players 6 years! Huge difference between Casas and Rafaela. Ones an average type defender at 1B, which has the 2nd highest bar for a bat. The other can potentially play great defense at SS and CF, which gives him the 2nd and 3rd lowest bars besides catcher. Not saying I don't agree, I'm not rushing him because we could use him. Yet if he hits like last year again, he should be on a fast track to Boston. His path to being valuable is much easier than Casas because of his D at premium positions.
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 6,423
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Dec 30, 2022 14:57:58 GMT -5
If the Red Sox for some reason aren't going to attempt to lock up their own guys then wouldn't that be even more reason not to rush them up? You wouldn't want to rush up an unfinished player and lose a year of control. Theoretically you'd want to maximize how good they are in those 6 years of control not waste a year by calling them up before they're ready. Fire Bloom right now if he won't call up a guy because he wants to maximize a players 6 years! Huge difference between Casas and Rafaela. Ones an average type defender at 1B, which has the 2nd highest bar for a bat. The other can potentially play great defense at SS and CF, which gives him the 2nd and 3rd lowest bars besides catcher. Not saying I don't agree, I'm not rushing him because we could use him. Yet if he hits like last year again, he should be on a fast track to Boston. His path to being valuable is much easier than Casas because of his D at premium positions. Casas also has from what I've seen a very advanced bat for a guy who was playing minor league baseball and a refined approach at the plate, something Rafaela does not have nor is he very close to having it from what I can tell. I do agree that Rafaela either way offers value with his defense, I mean Grisham batted under .200 and still put up a little over 2fWAR based off just his defense. Still I see no reason to rush up a guy who has played a grand total of 71 games above A ball. I guess I could see how my comment may be portrayed as me saying keep guys down in the minors as long as possible which isn't what I am advocating for, hell if they think Rafaela is ready for opening day call him up. I'd be A-okay with it but like I said he really needs to work on his approach at the plate because if he continues to swing at just about every pitch he sees in or out of the zone pitchers are going to throw him junk and he's going to chase it a rate that won't let him add any value with his bat.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,659
|
Post by cdj on Dec 30, 2022 15:19:38 GMT -5
I think the idea of Rafaela breaking camp with the team is crazy tbh, I mean I guess if there’s some sort of horrific plane accident then maybe it will happen
You can absolutely ruin players by bringing them up too early. We shouldn’t be prioritizing marginal short terms gains over the bigger picture. He doesn’t have an approach yet. Do what’s best for him long term.
|
|
|
Post by Smittyw on Dec 30, 2022 17:02:20 GMT -5
I'd like to be in a position by Opening Day where we're not talking about rushing a kid who should be in AA because we're so desperate for defense up the middle.
|
|
|