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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 2, 2023 1:01:41 GMT -5
I'll give you my opinion of these numbers. Casas made it his stated goal to be a complete hitter. That's what he worked on in AA and the minors in general. I think he already knows he can destroy baseballs but he's interested in reaching that larger goal. He's a different cat, mature beyond his years and very disciplined with intense focus on his approach.
His time in the majors provides an absurdly small sample of what I'm talking about. In AA/AAA last season, he averaged a HR every 22 ABs. In Boston he cut that down by a third to every 15 ABs. That would give him 33 over a 500 AB season.
Their approach and goals are probably so radically different that comparing their output in AA is a futile exercise. Right now Rafaela is all about "see ball hit ball". ML pitchers feast on that till a batter learns how to make them pay for the meal.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 2, 2023 2:25:17 GMT -5
I believe I said he could flame out, which would be his floor. However if he can hit .210 with his D he on an mlb roster and of its 225 he's a starter in a league where 240 was league average. SO yes, his floor is he never makes it at all, but if he does then he is a combination of JBJ and Iglesias (maybe not quite in that class as ss but close) both of whom have/had careers based on their gloves not their bats. But if you deliberately tried to ignore the point I was making which included the qualofication and decided you'd rather then nevermind. No, you just worded the post terribly lol. A scenario in which he is as good as those two guys defensively at their respective positions is the ceiling. Bradley had average speed Rafaela has plus speed, they both were rated with plus arms and good instincts and reading balls when in the minors. So if we're talking best case scenario type ceilings wouldn't that give him the edge? I mean there's talk in Bradley's profile of him being able to stick at CF, Rafaela being a plus defender possibly at every position besides catcher and 1B. Ceiling and floors are always a hard thing depending on how you look at them and people never agree. Like Keith Law back in the day rating Margot so high because he saw 30 HR potential.
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Post by jmei on Jan 2, 2023 11:30:21 GMT -5
Rafaela is definitely a good defensive outfielder, but I’d have him at least a half tick behind JBJ. JBJ had the best routes/instincts of any outfielder in recent memory, and “perennial gold glove contender” is a high bar.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 2, 2023 14:28:51 GMT -5
As we've said all year, the thing with Rafaela is that he has good enough bat-to-ball skills that when he chases, it translates to poor contract rather than whiffs, so he doesn't strike out at a bad clip. It's the type of profile that MLB and even Triple-A pitchers are going to be able to exploit much more effectively. As for "he's been in the system for five years, he is what he is," he's 22!! If he were born in the US and went to college, he'd be been drafted in 2022. You've been posting here long enough to know how that works with IFAs. You'd say the same thing going from short season and A ball to AA no? The most advanced pitching he's faced to date and by the number it sure seems his quality of contact got better not worse. That's not a good sign? As I said quality of contact when he reaches AAA. It's like over a decade now, developmental time in minors as part of a major league club full-time is better than College. The Devers and Bogaerts reaching majors at young age was helped by entering the system at a younger age. Betts and Casas because they came from high school and didn't go to College. With the way the minor leagues are now, with the removal of short-season? No, I actually wouldn't say that. Scouts generally are extremely down on the talent level in Low-A in particular the last two seasons - it's basically been a full-season version of short-season-A. I'm not sure what you're looking at, but his quality of contact did not get better by any metric. His numbers were far worse in Portland than Greenville. His 90th percentile exit velo dropped from 102.1 mph to 100.8 mph. His percentage of hits with 95 mph or higher exit velos dropped from 30.0% to 27.2%. Even looking at publicly available numbers you can see his ISOp dropped from .264 to .222. He improved from 2021 for sure, and that's heartening! If he's able to improve his swing decisions that'd be enormous for his development. And that's why I don't want to rush him. Even if we were to say, for the sake of argument, that he could come up and play gold glove defense in CF right now, I wouldn't want him up before midseason.
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Post by larrycook on Jan 2, 2023 19:33:44 GMT -5
Rafaela is definitely a good defensive outfielder, but I’d have him at least a half tick behind JBJ. JBJ had the best routes/instincts of any outfielder in recent memory, and “perennial gold glove contender” is a high bar. Seems like Bradley was moving before the ball left the bat sometimes. His instincts were off the charts.
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Post by patford on Jan 2, 2023 21:42:13 GMT -5
Rafaela is definitely a good defensive outfielder, but I’d have him at least a half tick behind JBJ. JBJ had the best routes/instincts of any outfielder in recent memory, and “perennial gold glove contender” is a high bar. Seems like Bradley was moving before the ball left the bat sometimes. His instincts were off the charts. The best I have ever seen and I've seen a lot of Kiermaier. My guess is Bradley was so incredibly good at routes and reads that he ended up not having as many highlight reels as Kiermaier simply because he was not having to lay out so often. Not taking a thing away from Kiermaier who was also amazing.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Jan 3, 2023 1:57:42 GMT -5
Not sure where to put this, but.... Don't get me wrong here, I love what Cedanne is made of. He's already capable of playing defense at the Major league level, I think with some time and simply more ABs in the minors his bat will be more than enough to make him a fixture in CF for years to come. I think he'll have pop and get on base enough to have years that approach all star level.
That being said, if Miami were to offer A deal that centered around Cabrera for Cedanne as headliners. Wouldn't you have to do it? I think Cabrera could be a #2 Starter or better and that the combination of age, body type and stuff make him such a rare commodity.
The buzz right now is all about a trade with Miami and that they want Casas, to me that's a non starter, because it opens another hole at the MLB level. Reports indicate Miami is interested in Raphaela as well, there might not be a better chance to grab a future Stud pitcher.
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Post by 0ap0 on Jan 3, 2023 8:59:14 GMT -5
Not sure where to put this, but.... Don't get me wrong here, I love what Cedanne is made of. ...just not enough to bother learning how to spell his name. Either of his names.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Jan 3, 2023 10:46:18 GMT -5
Not sure where to put this, but.... Don't get me wrong here, I love what Cedanne is made of. ...just not enough to bother learning how to spell his name. Either of his names. Criminey Crap, I'll be sure to study up before posting again.
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Post by jaffinator on Jan 3, 2023 13:34:43 GMT -5
Not to be that guy, and also derail this conversation even further, but I think some posters here are overrating Jackie Bradley Jr. through the lens of hindsight. He absolutely had some of the quickest jumps I've ever seen and was a top tier defensive outfielder for a number of years, but his routes were always a little suspect and he wasn't ever super fast, probably in part because he got moving so quickly. I'd argue that this showed up on video but it also certainly shows up in stats.
By route, which is statcast's measure of how many of a fielder's first 3 feet correspond to the direct route to the ball, JBJ was pretty significantly below average all years. By burst, which is feet covered in the 1.6-3.0 seconds after the ball is in play, he was mildly above average. The statcast measurement for route has some intuitive issues with how we might commonly understand it and probably isn't the single most important factor in the world, but it does add up to a statistical understanding of JBJ the fielder which is pretty consistent with the player I watched - an elite outfield defender who wasn't ever the best defender at his position in the league, gold glove be damned.
So if the question is: could Ceddanne Rafaela be as good a defender as JBJ was? Yes. I wouldn't put a lot of money on it - and it's probably a little bit more likely to not happen than it is to happen - but I don't think it's super unreasonable to project on the higher end that Rafaela could be a top-10 defensive outfielder for four or five years, which is basically what JBJ was.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 3, 2023 23:03:17 GMT -5
Not to be that guy, and also derail this conversation even further, but I think some posters here are overrating Jackie Bradley Jr. through the lens of hindsight. He absolutely had some of the quickest jumps I've ever seen and was a top tier defensive outfielder for a number of years, but his routes were always a little suspect and he wasn't ever super fast, probably in part because he got moving so quickly. I'd argue that this showed up on video but it also certainly shows up in stats. By route, which is statcast's measure of how many of a fielder's first 3 feet correspond to the direct route to the ball, JBJ was pretty significantly below average all years. By burst, which is feet covered in the 1.6-3.0 seconds after the ball is in play, he was mildly above average. The statcast measurement for route has some intuitive issues with how we might commonly understand it and probably isn't the single most important factor in the world, but it does add up to a statistical understanding of JBJ the fielder which is pretty consistent with the player I watched - an elite outfield defender who wasn't ever the best defender at his position in the league, gold glove be damned. So if the question is: could Ceddanne Rafaela be as good a defender as JBJ was? Yes. I wouldn't put a lot of money on it - and it's probably a little bit more likely to not happen than it is to happen - but I don't think it's super unreasonable to project on the higher end that Rafaela could be a top-10 defensive outfielder for four or five years, which is basically what JBJ was. Based on some of the scouting reports, along with the ZiPs projections (using minor league defensive data/tracking), that may not be his high-end. Take a look back through the thread at some of the reports. Also, it's picking a nit, but you have to give JBJ credit for being top-10 over a period of 6 seasons (2014, 2016-2020)
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 4, 2023 11:55:38 GMT -5
You'd say the same thing going from short season and A ball to AA no? The most advanced pitching he's faced to date and by the number it sure seems his quality of contact got better not worse. That's not a good sign? As I said quality of contact when he reaches AAA. It's like over a decade now, developmental time in minors as part of a major league club full-time is better than College. The Devers and Bogaerts reaching majors at young age was helped by entering the system at a younger age. Betts and Casas because they came from high school and didn't go to College. With the way the minor leagues are now, with the removal of short-season? No, I actually wouldn't say that. Scouts generally are extremely down on the talent level in Low-A in particular the last two seasons - it's basically been a full-season version of short-season-A. I'm not sure what you're looking at, but his quality of contact did not get better by any metric. His numbers were far worse in Portland than Greenville. His 90th percentile exit velo dropped from 102.1 mph to 100.8 mph. His percentage of hits with 95 mph or higher exit velos dropped from 30.0% to 27.2%. Even looking at publicly available numbers you can see his ISOp dropped from .264 to .222. He improved from 2021 for sure, and that's heartening! If he's able to improve his swing decisions that'd be enormous for his development. And that's why I don't want to rush him. Even if we were to say, for the sake of argument, that he could come up and play gold glove defense in CF right now, I wouldn't want him up before midseason. You get guys reaching the majors in 4-5 years of minor league ball if they were international guys or high school guys they do it at a young age. If it was equal or even close you'd see a bunch of College guys jumping straight to majors or doing it with very little minor league experience. That's just not the case. I don't know how you argue against this. College guys reaching the majors quickly is just rare. I was comparing his numbers in 2022 to his prior years. Nevermind his high A numbers aren't sustainable unless you think he'll have a .409 BABIP long-term. His .222 iso in AA is something he never did before 2022, not even close. His strikeouts went down and walks up when comparing high A to AA. All why facing the most advanced pitching he's every faced. He did it with a .310 BABIP which is sustainable. How do those AA statcast numbers compare to his minor league numbers before 2022? You can look at it like they slightly declined from high A or that they were likely better than anything he did before 2022 while at AA. BTW where are you getting minor league statcast data?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 5, 2023 17:18:21 GMT -5
Not public. Don't have prior seasons.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 16, 2023 1:36:14 GMT -5
For those still wondering about where this guy might be best suited, defensively, you're not alone. There are people in the organization who will take different "positions" (pun intended) on whether he's better in CF or SS. He's that good. And that's before taking into account that he started out getting more reps at third, and later picked up second base skills also. Nice interview with the Sox front office principles: blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-ceddanne-rafaela-might-be-bostons-answer-in-center-or-short/
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 16, 2023 4:22:53 GMT -5
Rafaela is definitely a good defensive outfielder, but I’d have him at least a half tick behind JBJ. JBJ had the best routes/instincts of any outfielder in recent memory, and “perennial gold glove contender” is a high bar. Rafaela is definitely a good defensive outfielder, but I’d have him at least a half tick behind JBJ. JBJ had the best routes/instincts of any outfielder in recent memory, and “perennial gold glove contender” is a high bar. Seems like Bradley was moving before the ball left the bat sometimes. His instincts were off the charts. Seems like Bradley was moving before the ball left the bat sometimes. His instincts were off the charts. The best I have ever seen and I've seen a lot of Kiermaier. My guess is Bradley was so incredibly good at routes and reads that he ended up not having as many highlight reels as Kiermaier simply because he was not having to lay out so often. Not taking a thing away from Kiermaier who was also amazing. Statcast data actually has JBJ's routes as average in efficiency, and of course he had only average speed for a CF. But larrycook nails it. He would beat the cameraman and/or director in reaction time, and the first you ever saw of him, he was already in motion.
I wouldn't call it "instincts"; I think he had a hard-wired ability to tell roughly where a ball was going to land essentially as soon as it came off the bat. And he figured out that you should take off in that general direction immediately, even if you had slightly misread the ball because you used so little data in your estimate. Then you a take a second look, nail down exactly where it's going, and go there. Hence the whole route is average technically in efficiency. But he's gone multiple steps in roughly the right direction, and gotten up to speed, at the point where even good fielders are just getting started.
If you include in the route the time spent standing still and eyeing the ball as it heads into the outfield, yeah, his were great. Because his time spent waiting to create a route was as littlle as possible.
Edit: just saw that Stacast had him as just a bit above average for distance traveled in the first 3 seconds, but that's a much longer time frame than I'm talking about; that factors in a lot of foot speed. The bottom line is that a guy with well-below average initial direction (which I have as part of his methodology) and only a bit above average distance traveled in the first 3 seconds, who gets to Gold Glove territory (top few guys in the league) with his results, has to be doing something Statcast isn't measuring.
He was also really sure-handed, really good at getting the right part of the glove to the ball.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jan 16, 2023 7:39:22 GMT -5
So Jimmy Piersall was my favorite Sox player in part because I got to meet him several times since his biographer, Al Hirshberg, lived around the corner from us and was best friends with my folks. What he told me, and what I practiced and learned as a CF, is that you watch where the catcher sets up, watch the hitter start to swing and you actually can begin to move just *before* there is bat to ball contact. And yes, Eric is correct, that you adjust your path to the ball, but since you're already moving you gain an overall advantage the vast majority of the time. It is a technique that I got to practice quite a bit shagging balls for the older kids at the local park, it's a skill that can be learned to a degree if you're dedicated enough and have the time (and eyesight)
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 16, 2023 7:49:19 GMT -5
So Jimmy Piersall was my favorite Sox player in part because I got to meet him several times since his biographer, Al Hirshberg, lived around the corner from us and was best friends with my folks. What he told me, and what I practiced and learned as a CF, is that you watch where the catcher sets up, watch the hitter start to swing and you actually can begin to move just *before* there is bat to ball contact. And yes, Eric is correct, that you adjust your path to the ball, but since you're already moving you gain an overall advantage the vast majority of the time. It is a technique that I got to practice quite a bit shagging balls for the older kids at the local park, it's a skill that can be learned to a degree if you're dedicated enough and have the time (and eyesight) Framingham ?
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Post by Papi's Gift on Jan 16, 2023 8:53:47 GMT -5
Agree completely with this. I've often thought the same (though without the precision of detail). Bradley has always reminded me of Paul Blair, CF for those great Oriole teams from the mid-60s to the mid-70s. He was the best CF in the AL (8 gold gloves in 9 years during his prime), and it was a common discussion whether he or Willie Mays wss ghe best in baseball.
When asked about him, Earl Weaver simply said, "I've never seen his first step." I won't swear to all the details of an interview I read some 50 years ago, but when asked about this, this is the gist of Blair's answer. As the center fielder, I have the advantage of having a clear view of the catcher's signs, so I know what pitch is coming and where the target is. I know my pitchers, so I know the shape of the pitch they're going to throw. I know the individual hitters in the league, so I know their swing planes. So when I see a pitch thrown and a batter start to swing, I have a pretty good idea of where he's going to hit it, and I find myself leaning in that direction just before he makes contact.
That obviously requires a rare combination of vision and fast-twitch muscle response, but Bradley always reminded me of that interview, making me wonder if he had a similar combination of gifts.
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Post by Papi's Gift on Jan 16, 2023 8:59:47 GMT -5
I was responding to Eric, but I see that Maxwellsdemons beat me to the punch. Hope it comes across as reinforcement, not repetition.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Jan 16, 2023 10:03:41 GMT -5
www.mlb.com/news/new-outfield-jump-burst-route-metrics-at-baseball-savantThis is an article breaking down outfielder jump on baseball savant. Essentially, it's broken into reaction, which is the ground covered in any direction for the first 1.5 seconds, burst, which is ground covered in any direction from 1.5 to 3 seconds, and route, which is how close you are to running a direct route. This goes in line with what everyone here thinks about JBJ, even with a quote from him talking about how he prioritizes reaction above route efficiency. He lead the league in reaction from 2016 (the first year they started keeping track) to 2019. He's been in the top 5 since. You know who's been #1 the last two seasons? Kiké Hernandez. And it's not even close. Kiké is about a carbon copy of JBJ in terms of outfielder jump,to the point where I wonder if that's an organizational philosophy.
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Post by cmax on Jan 16, 2023 10:29:22 GMT -5
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jan 16, 2023 11:44:57 GMT -5
We already know the defense is a slam dunk with Rafaela. If he can be 80% of what Brandon Phillips was at the plate. Hot Damn
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Post by terriblehondo on Jan 16, 2023 12:18:02 GMT -5
I like Blooms quote from the fangraphs article. About not screwing with his development.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jan 16, 2023 14:40:06 GMT -5
philsbosoxfan Coolidge Corner area of Brookline, local park was the Lawrence School field. ETA: Now perhaps it's clearer why I am so reluctant to include Rafaela in any trade except for a top talent. Noting that the MLB average OPS in 2022 was only .706 that means that if Rafaela is only a .650 OPS guy you are giving up 34 Total Bases per 600 at bats, Looks like he could save that many bases in his sleep and of course if he hits at all...
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jan 16, 2023 14:42:07 GMT -5
So Jimmy Piersall was my favorite Sox player in part because I got to meet him several times since his biographer, Al Hirshberg, lived around the corner from us and was best friends with my folks. What he told me, and what I practiced and learned as a CF, is that you watch where the catcher sets up, watch the hitter start to swing and you actually can begin to move just *before* there is bat to ball contact. And yes, Eric is correct, that you adjust your path to the ball, but since you're already moving you gain an overall advantage the vast majority of the time. It is a technique that I got to practice quite a bit shagging balls for the older kids at the local park, it's a skill that can be learned to a degree if you're dedicated enough and have the time (and eyesight) How lucky to know Jimmy Piersall. He was my hero and model and tried to emulate him in CF, my position. I had the speed, glove and arm but sure wish I knew about anticipating where the ball was heading before it was hit. I was clueless. What a gift. I am very much looking forward to the polished version of the Cedanne Rafaela in that LL video. The Sox and it’s fans will be happy to have him.
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