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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 7, 2023 12:21:20 GMT -5
I'm a dummy about the finer points of prospect development, but something I've wondered... Would it make sense to say that Rafaela's hit tool, while questionable, has a high floor? I'm thinking of the fact that he has good contact skills and seemingly just needs to improve his pitch selection to avoid a lot of the weak contact. So it seems unlikely that he'll have a career-crushing K rate. And with his speed, even weak contact ought to result in some number of hits. By contrast a hitter like Kavadas, with more swing-and-miss but better zone judgment, seems more like a boom-or-bust case. Does that make sense? If so, then it seems like a decent bet that he could hit, say, .232/.296/.382 in the majors. That happens to be Kiermaier's battling line since 2018, during which time he's been a 3.3 WAR/600 PA player. If the scouting reports about Rafaela's defense are right, that outcome seems in reach for him. Super rough estimate here, but I did a quick Fangraphs leaderboard search to see the range of wRC+ of guys in the last 5 years with a ~20% K rate. (This might be a generous projection of where Rafaela will end up, especially if he tries to be less aggressive and finds himself deeper in counts more often.)
It looks like these guys bottom out at around around a 70-75 wRC+ if they 1. don't walk much and 2. don't hit for power. We're talking Albert Almora Jr., Orlando Arcia and Nick Senzel. As much people here seem optimistic about Rafaela's chances of learning to take a walk, I'm not so bullish. Still, based on his speed and his performance last year, I think he taps into enough power that we're looking at more of an 80 wRC+ floor than a 70.
If the glove lives up to the hype, that probably puts him right around 2 WAR?
I was curious so I took a look at Kiermaier's fangraph's page. 2018 in 88 games he accumulated 1.5 fWAR and 2019 in 129 he accumulated 2.5fWAR. I chose those two seasons specifically because his wRC+ was 79 in both those seasons. So taking a rough estimate that around an 80 wRC+ for a true gold glove caliber defensive CF we're probably talking closer to 3fWAR over the course of a full healthy season for someone with that type of profile.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 7, 2023 15:36:17 GMT -5
I would not say that Rafaela's hit tool has a high floor, but I think that's semantics. I think what you may be trying to say is that there's a big gap between his ceiling and floor, as opposed to someone with a big old hole in his swing that's never going to be more than a 40 hitter or something.
Keep in mind that hit tool is not just "do you strike out?" Good swing decisions, quality of contact (do you barrel the ball, as opposed to do you drive the ball for extra bases, which is power), quality of at-bats - these all factor in as well.
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 7, 2023 16:16:40 GMT -5
I would have to imagine the book is out on Rafaela since his name has been thrown around on some of the top 100 lists. Have to imagine they'll throw him junk outside and hope he chases it. Wouldn't surprise me if the first few weeks of the year he gets just about nothing in the zone. I would think we may find out somewhat quickly into the season if he's tweaked his approach at the plate much going into the year but I also know very little about the workings in and around the minors so this is more a thought I just had.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 7, 2023 16:29:30 GMT -5
I would not say that Rafaela's hit tool has a high floor, but I think that's semantics. I think what you may be trying to say is that there's a big gap between his ceiling and floor, as opposed to someone with a big old hole in his swing that's never going to be more than a 40 hitter or something.Keep in mind that hit tool is not just "do you strike out?" Good swing decisions, quality of contact (do you barrel the ball, as opposed to do you drive the ball for extra bases, which is power), quality of at-bats - these all factor in as well. Well, what I was trying to say was the opposite - that there's a relatively small gap between his floor and ceiling (which is more or less synonymous with saying he has a high floor), whereas a slugger with a big hole in their swing might get totally owned in the majors, but if they close that hole up then watch out.
And the question was whether, acknowledging the swing decision and quality of contact issue, the contact skill alone gives the hit tool a likelihood of being good enough (for an elite defender at a premium position). But it sounds like the answer is 'no.'
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 7, 2023 19:38:51 GMT -5
Yeah, the answer is definitely no. If he's going to make lots of weak contact in the majors it significantly limits the ceiling. The hope is he improves on that.
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Post by jmei on Mar 14, 2023 10:57:19 GMT -5
I continue to believe that Rafaela's prospect status is being underrated (especially nationally) because his defense isn't being properly valued. In my mind, Rafaela has both a high floor (he will play 4+ seasons in MLB even if he's a replacement-level hitter because defensive flexibility and above-average defense at multiple up-the-middle positions is so valuable) and a high ceiling (he's a 4+ WAR player if he's even a league-average hitter, and he's got the tools (bat speed, power) to be even better than that).
For instance, I personally have him rated higher than Casas because the offensive bar at 1B is so high. To get to 4 WAR at that position, Casas would have to be a ~140 wRC+ hitter (think Vlad Guerrero Jr. (.288/.364/.527 from 2020-2022) or Jose Abreu (.289/.366/.489 from 2020-2022) at the plate). Casas is certainly capable of doing that, but I'd give Rafaela higher odds of being a league-average hitter than Casas' odds of being that kind of hitter.
There's also a lot lower risk in terms of defense translating from AAA to the majors better than hit tool or game power translating from AAA to the majors. I feel more comfortable that Rafaela is going to be an everyday regular than I do with Casas or even someone like Yoshida.
So, as compared to Casas, I see Rafaela as: higher floor, same median projection, same ceiling, lower risk. I honestly think the difference is that an elite hitter ceiling looks sexier in terms of All-Star and award (ROY, MVP) potential, but elite defense looks just as good on the WAR leaderboards, and Rafaela's positional flexibility adds further value that isn't being quantified. His ability to make contact (even if it's weak contact) and speed on the bases are also potential plus factors given the potential impact of the new MLB rule changes.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 14, 2023 15:19:59 GMT -5
Isn't there a floor of below-replacement level offense though?
Cristian Pache in AA at age 20: .278/.340/.475 Victor Robles in AA at age 20 (not a huge SS): .324/.394/.489 Rafaela in AA at age 21: .278/.324/.500
Both are great defenders, but Pache is below replacement and Robles at like 1.6 career in bWAR at least.
Pache is probably going to continue to get run but he doesn't have much margin offensively to stay in the lineup.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 14, 2023 15:39:23 GMT -5
Isn't there a floor of below-replacement level offense though? Cristian Pache in AA at age 20: .278/.340/.475 Victor Robles in AA at age 20 (not a huge SS): .324/.394/.489 Rafaela in AA at age 21: .278/.324/.500 Both are great defenders, but Pache is below replacement and Robles at like 1.6 career in bWAR at least. Pache is probably going to continue to get run but he doesn't have much margin offensively to stay in the lineup. So you are saying Pache, Robles and Rafeala have (had) similar hand eye coordination, bat speed, pitch recognition, in zone exit velocities and chase rates. Compelling....
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Mar 14, 2023 15:48:15 GMT -5
Robles at like 1.6 career in bWAR at least. 6.4 bWAR career
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 14, 2023 15:55:19 GMT -5
Isn't there a floor of below-replacement level offense though? Cristian Pache in AA at age 20: .278/.340/.475 Victor Robles in AA at age 20 (not a huge SS): .324/.394/.489 Rafaela in AA at age 21: .278/.324/.500 Both are great defenders, but Pache is below replacement and Robles at like 1.6 career in bWAR at least. Pache is probably going to continue to get run but he doesn't have much margin offensively to stay in the lineup. Robles is a pretty good snapshot for how valuable it can be to get even a fringe-average offensive profile and how far the bottom can truly fall out if he's like a 30 or 35 hit tool
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Post by fenwaydouble on Mar 14, 2023 16:19:24 GMT -5
Isn't there a floor of below-replacement level offense though? Cristian Pache in AA at age 20: .278/.340/.475 Victor Robles in AA at age 20 (not a huge SS): .324/.394/.489 Rafaela in AA at age 21: .278/.324/.500 Both are great defenders, but Pache is below replacement and Robles at like 1.6 career in bWAR at least. Pache is probably going to continue to get run but he doesn't have much margin offensively to stay in the lineup. Part of why those guys have put up such lousy WAR totals is because the defensive metrics haven’t actually been as spectacular as scouts projected. Then again, that should maybe be a warning that we can’t actually pencil Rafaela in for Kiermaier-level production in the field.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 14, 2023 16:33:34 GMT -5
Robles at like 1.6 career in bWAR at least. 6.4 bWAR career Crap, was looking at least year. Good call. Point stands on Pache/floor though.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 14, 2023 16:37:52 GMT -5
Isn't there a floor of below-replacement level offense though? Cristian Pache in AA at age 20: .278/.340/.475 Victor Robles in AA at age 20 (not a huge SS): .324/.394/.489 Rafaela in AA at age 21: .278/.324/.500 Both are great defenders, but Pache is below replacement and Robles at like 1.6 career in bWAR at least. Pache is probably going to continue to get run but he doesn't have much margin offensively to stay in the lineup. So you are saying Pache, Robles and Rafeala have (had) similar hand eye coordination, bat speed, pitch recognition, in zone exit velocities and chase rates. Compelling.... Nope, just trying to have a discussion about what the *floor* is for a guy we all recognize as an outstanding CF defender and Top 100 prospect. Not sure why the need for snark. (and sorry if there was none but it reads that way) I've been caught in the "he's at least a plus defender up the middle" too many times before. Che-Hsuan Lin and his CF roller skates. Deven Marrero as the next ASU Red Sox MIF. The difference is Rafaela is even better defensively and has more offensive ceiling, so I'm not trying to call them similar prospects. I'm just saying there's a trap in projecting a guy's floor because he's good defensively as being higher than it is.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 14, 2023 16:38:34 GMT -5
Isn't there a floor of below-replacement level offense though? Cristian Pache in AA at age 20: .278/.340/.475 Victor Robles in AA at age 20 (not a huge SS): .324/.394/.489 Rafaela in AA at age 21: .278/.324/.500 Both are great defenders, but Pache is below replacement and Robles at like 1.6 career in bWAR at least. Pache is probably going to continue to get run but he doesn't have much margin offensively to stay in the lineup. Part of why those guys have put up such lousy WAR totals is because the defensive metrics haven’t actually been as spectacular as scouts projected. Then again, that should maybe be a warning that we can’t actually pencil Rafaela in for Kiermaier-level production in the field.Yeah, as good as Rafaela's defensive ceiling is, I have a question on it: How sticky, typically, is defensive "value"? It seems like most of the time when I'm seeing discourse on player defense, it's the type of thing that has some level of volatility. Part of the reason Robles was basically sub-replacement level over two of the last three years is that his defensive value seemingly fell off a cliff to go along with the offense. Kiermaier is another guy I looked at who has been more consistent but he's also a step below what he was a few years ago just in terms of WAR value. I think part of the reason that I've been a little more hesitant to jump on board the Rafaela hype train is that in my mind defense is a lot less predictable, and a little harder to qualify in the moment (I mean, when JBJ was putting up Gold Glove seasons people still wanted him gone, so while it's nice to dream on a defensive star you also have to be able to stomach it in the moment).
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Mar 14, 2023 16:47:47 GMT -5
Isn't there a floor of below-replacement level offense though? Cristian Pache in AA at age 20: .278/.340/.475 Victor Robles in AA at age 20 (not a huge SS): .324/.394/.489 Rafaela in AA at age 21: .278/.324/.500 Both are great defenders, but Pache is below replacement and Robles at like 1.6 career in bWAR at least. Pache is probably going to continue to get run but he doesn't have much margin offensively to stay in the lineup. Part of why those guys have put up such lousy WAR totals is because the defensive metrics haven’t actually been as spectacular as scouts projected. Then again, that should maybe be a warning that we can’t actually pencil Rafaela in for Kiermaier-level production in the field. Pache also actually has a decent EV but can’t get the ball off of the ground Which hasn’t been an issue for Rafaela.
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Post by jmei on Mar 14, 2023 18:22:55 GMT -5
So you are saying Pache, Robles and Rafeala have (had) similar hand eye coordination, bat speed, pitch recognition, in zone exit velocities and chase rates. Compelling.... Nope, just trying to have a discussion about what the *floor* is for a guy we all recognize as an outstanding CF defender and Top 100 prospect. Not sure why the need for snark. (and sorry if there was none but it reads that way) I've been caught in the "he's at least a plus defender up the middle" too many times before. Che-Hsuan Lin and his CF roller skates. Deven Marrero as the next ASU Red Sox MIF. The difference is Rafaela is even better defensively and has more offensive ceiling, so I'm not trying to call them similar prospects. I'm just saying there's a trap in projecting a guy's floor because he's good defensively as being higher than it is. Eh, I feel like these examples only support the idea that even if Rafaela rounds to a zero on offense, he'll be a multi-year MLB player, which is more than you can say for the Lars Anderson types. - Pache has 332 PAs spread across three seasons despite hitting .156/.205/.234 (26 wRC+) during that time, and he'll likely get an MLB bench spot with Oakland in 2023.
- Victor Robles will probably start for the Nationals in 2023 despite a career .233/.306/.359 (78 wRC+) line over 1675 PAs.
- Deven Marrero has 373 PAs spread out across seven seasons with four franchises despite a .191/.246/.279 (37 wRC+) career line.
- Che-Hsuan Lin probably would have had a similar career had he not gone back to Taiwan (where he looks to have been at least a solid regular, including this amazing highlight:
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 14, 2023 18:39:34 GMT -5
Nope, just trying to have a discussion about what the *floor* is for a guy we all recognize as an outstanding CF defender and Top 100 prospect. Not sure why the need for snark. (and sorry if there was none but it reads that way) I've been caught in the "he's at least a plus defender up the middle" too many times before. Che-Hsuan Lin and his CF roller skates. Deven Marrero as the next ASU Red Sox MIF. The difference is Rafaela is even better defensively and has more offensive ceiling, so I'm not trying to call them similar prospects. I'm just saying there's a trap in projecting a guy's floor because he's good defensively as being higher than it is. Eh, I feel like these examples only support the idea that even if Rafaela rounds to a zero on offense, he'll be a multi-year MLB player, which is more than you can say for the Lars Anderson types. - Pache has 332 PAs spread across three seasons despite hitting .156/.205/.234 (26 wRC+) during that time, and he'll likely get an MLB bench spot with Oakland in 2023.
- Victor Robles will probably start for the Nationals in 2023 despite a career .233/.306/.359 (78 wRC+) line over 1675 PAs.
- Deven Marrero has 373 PAs spread out across seven seasons with four franchises despite a .191/.246/.279 (37 wRC+) career line.
- Che-Hsuan Lin probably would have had a similar career had he not gone back to Taiwan (where he looks to have been at least a solid regular, including this amazing highlight:
I really fail to see how this collection of names represents a positive outlook. Those are all barely regulars on bad teams. I don’t think it’s any sort of consolation prizes that Rafaela at worst could be a second division regular type because, well, the Red Sox aren’t a second division team. But maybe I just don’t get what you’re going for here. I’d also say that Pache is still only getting a roster spot because of prospect equity so if you’re trying to use those guys to establish a likely floor for Rafaela I’d say we don’t actually know how far he may bottom out.
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Post by jmei on Mar 14, 2023 19:03:17 GMT -5
Second division regulars or bench players are still very valuable, especially while they have options remaining. More importantly, it means he’ll continue to have access to high-level coaching/development and additional opportunities to show improvement. It’s not a coincidence that most post-hype sleeper types are high on the defensive spectrum.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 14, 2023 19:03:36 GMT -5
Well, as always I don't really know what anyone means by "floor" or "ceiling." If floor = worst plausible outcome, then the floor for every prospect is to totally bust. Victor Robles, for example, was a very highly touted prospect - 65 FV with a 60 hit tool per fangraphs, which happens to be the easiest source for me to look up. So what does it prove if Robles never figured out how to hit? Just that *any* prospect might not figure out how to hit. But it doesn't mean anything specific about Rafaela.
I take jmei's point to be: Rafaela is more likely to hit as well as he needs to (85 wRC+ or something?), given his defensive profile, than Casas is likely to hit as well as he needs to (maybe a 115 wRC+?) given his defensive profile? So how would people respond to that proposition?
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Post by jmei on Mar 14, 2023 19:06:17 GMT -5
Well, as always I don't really know what anyone means by "floor" or "ceiling." If floor = worst plausible outcome, then the floor for every prospect is to totally bust. Victor Robles, for example, was a very highly touted prospect - 65 FV with a 60 hit tool per fangraphs, which happens to be the easiest source for me to look up. So what does it prove if Robles never figured out how to hit? Just that *any* prospect might not figure out how to hit. But it doesn't mean anything specific about Rafaela. When most folks use the term floor, they mean something like a 20th percentile outcome. The fact that Rafaela’s 20th percentile outcome is likely as a multi-year MLB contributor differentiates him from a lot of other prospects in my opinion for reasons mentioned above.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 14, 2023 19:13:03 GMT -5
I think the valuation of Rafaela has to include the fact that he doesn't just play the two most valuable field positions, but that he's so good at both. None of the others mentioned have that skillset. Nor can they sub in at third and second as he can. As was mentioned, the metrics really have no way to factor in what it means to a team and its win total to have such a flexible player available. It can cover for injuries at all those positions while opening roster spots that would otherwise have to be dedicated to specific position needs.
All that said, watching some of his bat swings is cringe inducing. He's got to get disciplined enough to get some control of the strikezone. But if he can do that, the sky's the limit, he's such a defensive talent.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 14, 2023 19:26:28 GMT -5
Second division regulars or bench players are still very valuable, especially while they have options remaining. More importantly, it means he’ll continue to have access to high-level coaching/development and additional opportunities to show improvement. It’s not a coincidence that most post-hype sleeper types are high on the defensive spectrum. I think your argument is generally fair even if I’m not on board but I’ll play devil’s advocate and push back a bit by saying the ease with which you can get a guy in that “post-hype sleeper that is high on the defensive spectrum” for not a steep cost.
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dcb26
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Post by dcb26 on Mar 14, 2023 19:38:54 GMT -5
Not really sure what the point is. If it's "in general, prospects who project to play elite defense at premium positions have a higher floor" sure. If it's "Rafaela has a higher floor than Casas" I disagree - Rafaela playing elite CF defense for half a year in AA is great, but to me what Casas has already shown, at higher levels, is better. If it's that "Rafaela is simply a better prospect than Casas" I completely disagree - I'll take hit and power tools over defense and speed any day. Obviously there is hope for Rafaela's bat, but it's based on theoretical improvements to a much greater degree than Casas. And if it's "Rafaela is going to be better than people think" I hope you're right.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 14, 2023 20:01:14 GMT -5
I see the discussion revolving around what a player brings to team wins. That does include both sides of the ball. Jmei pointed out how drastically it differs by position - how much additional offense a player has to bring at first base to make up that difference. That's legit.
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Post by orion09 on Mar 15, 2023 6:50:30 GMT -5
Well, as always I don't really know what anyone means by "floor" or "ceiling." If floor = worst plausible outcome, then the floor for every prospect is to totally bust. Victor Robles, for example, was a very highly touted prospect - 65 FV with a 60 hit tool per fangraphs, which happens to be the easiest source for me to look up. So what does it prove if Robles never figured out how to hit? Just that *any* prospect might not figure out how to hit. But it doesn't mean anything specific about Rafaela.
I take jmei's point to be: Rafaela is more likely to hit as well as he needs to (85 wRC+ or something?), given his defensive profile, than Casas is likely to hit as well as he needs to (maybe a 115 wRC+?) given his defensive profile? So how would people respond to that proposition?
I would give Casas a better chance to hit 115 wRC+ than Rafaela to hit 85 wRC+. I think there’s a very real chance (say, 35%) that Rafaela is a 50-60 wRC+ guy or worse. But it’s crazy how much defense raises the floor. For reference, Jonathan Schoop had a 57 wRC+ in 510 PA, but was elite/second in the league with 22.3 fDef (which includes the positional adjustment), and was still worth 1.5 fWAR. Nicky Lopez had a 57 wRC+ in 480 PA with 14.7 fDef and was worth 1.2 fWAR. In comparison, Garrett Cooper had a 115 wRC+ in 459 PA with -8.6 fDef (slightly below average for 1B) and was worth only 1.4 fWAR.
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