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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 16, 2023 17:51:06 GMT -5
Baseball America, Fangraphs, The Athletic, ESPN and MLB.com all project Rafaela as a 50-55 FV player.
I'm curious as to what the Sox Prospects voters disagree with from the national publications. Is it simply a disagreement in the valuation of his skill-set or do you think the above groups are over-valuing/projecting some element of his game?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Mar 16, 2023 18:07:34 GMT -5
Well, as always I don't really know what anyone means by "floor" or "ceiling." If floor = worst plausible outcome, then the floor for every prospect is to totally bust. Victor Robles, for example, was a very highly touted prospect - 65 FV with a 60 hit tool per fangraphs, which happens to be the easiest source for me to look up. So what does it prove if Robles never figured out how to hit? Just that *any* prospect might not figure out how to hit. But it doesn't mean anything specific about Rafaela. I take jmei's point to be: Rafaela is more likely to hit as well as he needs to (85 wRC+ or something?), given his defensive profile, than Casas is likely to hit as well as he needs to (maybe a 115 wRC+?) given his defensive profile? So how would people respond to that proposition?
I would give Casas a better chance to hit 115 wRC+ than Rafaela to hit 85 wRC+. I think there’s a very real chance (say, 35%) that Rafaela is a 50-60 wRC+ guy or worse. But it’s crazy how much defense raises the floor. For reference, Jonathan Schoop had a 57 wRC+ in 510 PA, but was elite/second in the league with 22.3 fDef (which includes the positional adjustment), and was still worth 1.5 fWAR. Nicky Lopez had a 57 wRC+ in 480 PA with 14.7 fDef and was worth 1.2 fWAR. In comparison, Garrett Cooper had a 115 wRC+ in 459 PA with -8.6 fDef (slightly below average for 1B) and was worth only 1.4 fWAR. Yeah I see Rafaela as riskier than Casas because there’s no offensive floor for Rafaela. His chase rate is horrendous and he’s probably maxing out around 50th percentile for avg EV. With his batted ball profile that could work just fine, but if he’s chasing everything it will all be for nothing.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 16, 2023 19:10:47 GMT -5
Baseball America, Fangraphs, The Athletic, ESPN and MLB.com all project Rafaela as a 50-55 FV player. I'm curious as to what the Sox Prospects voters disagree with from the national publications. Is it simply a disagreement in the valuation of his skill-set or do you think the above groups are over-valuing/projecting some element of his game? Rafaela to me is hard to pin down. Defensively he's supposed to be at the very least very good at SS and even better at CF. So the glove and versatility gives him a high floor. His bat however scares me, I've never been a big fan of low obp type guys. He's too free a swinger for me to be too bullish on him right now.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 16, 2023 19:50:52 GMT -5
Baseball America, Fangraphs, The Athletic, ESPN and MLB.com all project Rafaela as a 50-55 FV player. I'm curious as to what the Sox Prospects voters disagree with from the national publications. Is it simply a disagreement in the valuation of his skill-set or do you think the above groups are over-valuing/projecting some element of his game? Rafaela to me is hard to pin down. Defensively he's supposed to be at the very least very good at SS and even better at CF. So the glove and versatility gives him a high floor. His bat however scares me, I've never been a big fan of low obp type guys. He's too free a swinger for me to be too bullish on him right now. I think by May or June he'll be in CF. I'm not super high on his bat for the reasons you mentioned, but I think with an outfield of Yoshida/Duvall/Verdugo the need for outfield defense will be great, particularly if Duval doesnt hit enough. At that point the Sox might figure, the hell with it, we're not getting much offense out of that spot anyways so let's get a badly needed glove to stabilize the OF defense. I think Rafaela is a bottom of the order unless he becomes more discerning at the plate. If he does you're talking a potential all star, but that's a huge if.
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Post by sarasoxer on Mar 16, 2023 21:40:43 GMT -5
Rafaela to me is hard to pin down. Defensively he's supposed to be at the very least very good at SS and even better at CF. So the glove and versatility gives him a high floor. His bat however scares me, I've never been a big fan of low obp type guys. He's too free a swinger for me to be too bullish on him right now. I think by May or June he'll be in CF. I'm not super high on his bat for the reasons you mentioned, but I think with an outfield of Yoshida/Duvall/Verdugo the need for outfield defense will be great, particularly if Duval doesnt hit enough. At that point the Sox might figure, the hell with it, we're not getting much offense out of that spot anyways so let's get a badly needed glove to stabilize the OF defense. I think Rafaela is a bottom of the order unless he becomes more discerning at the plate. If he does you're talking a potential all star, but that's a huge if. I believe that there were reports that Rafaela was working on pitch selection following last season and that he had made progress. I saw a few of his televised at bats this spring looking specifically for that aspect and, to me, he looked like he was doing a good job of laying off. I have no doubt about his bat otherwise.
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Post by patford on Mar 16, 2023 22:17:56 GMT -5
The nice thing about Rafaela's hitting is he has the parts you can't teach. "Quick hands, plus bat speed. Good bat control and contact skills." By the end of this year we should have a good idea as to how far those tools can carry him even if his approach remains a work in progress.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 16, 2023 22:22:27 GMT -5
Rafaela to me is hard to pin down. Defensively he's supposed to be at the very least very good at SS and even better at CF. So the glove and versatility gives him a high floor. His bat however scares me, I've never been a big fan of low obp type guys. He's too free a swinger for me to be too bullish on him right now. I think by May or June he'll be in CF. I'm not super high on his bat for the reasons you mentioned, but I think with an outfield of Yoshida/Duvall/Verdugo the need for outfield defense will be great, particularly if Duval doesnt hit enough. At that point the Sox might figure, the hell with it, we're not getting much offense out of that spot anyways so let's get a badly needed glove to stabilize the OF defense. I think Rafaela is a bottom of the order unless he becomes more discerning at the plate. If he does you're talking a potential all star, but that's a huge if. In this scenario it has to be the case that Duvall is not hitting AND his defense in CF is not great AND Mondesi is not healthy (preventing Kiké from moving to CF) and this situation has to be so dire that they'd rush Rafaela up to the majors despite his clearly needing to work on his hitting. Even then I'd expect them to just use Chang or someone at SS while moving Kiké to the outfield. That's a pretty needle-threading scenario for Rafaela to appear in the majors so soon.
I think the only scenario where he's up that soon is one in which at least two of Mondesi, Kiké, and Duvall are injured and Rafaela is killing it in AAA. Just seems to me he has a clear improvement he needs to make with the chase rate, and they're going to do everything they can not to push him before it's clear that he's made it.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 16, 2023 22:41:48 GMT -5
I think by May or June he'll be in CF. I'm not super high on his bat for the reasons you mentioned, but I think with an outfield of Yoshida/Duvall/Verdugo the need for outfield defense will be great, particularly if Duval doesnt hit enough. At that point the Sox might figure, the hell with it, we're not getting much offense out of that spot anyways so let's get a badly needed glove to stabilize the OF defense. I think Rafaela is a bottom of the order unless he becomes more discerning at the plate. If he does you're talking a potential all star, but that's a huge if. In this scenario it has to be the case that Duvall is not hitting AND his defense in CF is not great AND Mondesi is not healthy (preventing Kiké from moving to CF) and this situation has to be so dire that they'd rush Rafaela up to the majors despite his clearly needing to work on his hitting. Even then I'd expect them to just use Chang or someone at SS while moving Kiké to the outfield. That's a pretty needle-threading scenario for Rafaela to appear in the majors so soon.
I think the only scenario where he's up that soon is one in which at least two of Mondesi, Kiké, and Duvall are injured and Rafaela is killing it in AAA. Just seems to me he has a clear improvement he needs to make with the chase rate, and they're going to do everything they can not to push him before it's clear that he's made it.
Duran would also probably get another look before Rafaela, too
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Mar 17, 2023 0:39:34 GMT -5
In this scenario it has to be the case that Duvall is not hitting AND his defense in CF is not great AND Mondesi is not healthy (preventing Kiké from moving to CF) and this situation has to be so dire that they'd rush Rafaela up to the majors despite his clearly needing to work on his hitting. Even then I'd expect them to just use Chang or someone at SS while moving Kiké to the outfield. That's a pretty needle-threading scenario for Rafaela to appear in the majors so soon.
I think the only scenario where he's up that soon is one in which at least two of Mondesi, Kiké, and Duvall are injured and Rafaela is killing it in AAA. Just seems to me he has a clear improvement he needs to make with the chase rate, and they're going to do everything they can not to push him before it's clear that he's made it.
Duran would also probably get another look before Rafaela, too Absolutely agree. Unless there’s a 5 alarm fire where 4 of Duvall, Yoshida, Verdugo, Refsynder, Duran and Kiké are injured/severely underperforming, the Sox aren’t going to budge on a Rafaela promotion until August/September even if he’s ripping the cover off the ball in Worcester.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 17, 2023 6:43:52 GMT -5
I think by May or June he'll be in CF. I'm not super high on his bat for the reasons you mentioned, but I think with an outfield of Yoshida/Duvall/Verdugo the need for outfield defense will be great, particularly if Duval doesnt hit enough. At that point the Sox might figure, the hell with it, we're not getting much offense out of that spot anyways so let's get a badly needed glove to stabilize the OF defense. I think Rafaela is a bottom of the order unless he becomes more discerning at the plate. If he does you're talking a potential all star, but that's a huge if. In this scenario it has to be the case that Duvall is not hitting AND his defense in CF is not great AND Mondesi is not healthy (preventing Kiké from moving to CF) and this situation has to be so dire that they'd rush Rafaela up to the majors despite his clearly needing to work on his hitting. Even then I'd expect them to just use Chang or someone at SS while moving Kiké to the outfield. That's a pretty needle-threading scenario for Rafaela to appear in the majors so soon. I think the only scenario where he's up that soon is one in which at least two of Mondesi, Kiké, and Duvall are injured and Rafaela is killing it in AAA. Just seems to me he has a clear improvement he needs to make with the chase rate, and they're going to do everything they can not to push him before it's clear that he's made it.
Honestly I'm not counting on much from Mondesi. He's hurt as often as he plays. He could easily, if healthy, wind up playing 2b should Arroyo get injured again. I know Chang is an international all star right now but I dont think he's much more than a marginal utility man. Duran was mentioned below. I suppose he could get some run, but if the outfield defense is as suspect as I think it'll be the Sox might simply welcome the defense. I also think that the Sox probably dont want to ruffle Kiké's feathers. The guy has his heart set on playing SS, and if he's a decent SS, I doubt Cora would want to move him back midseason. I do think Rafaela will hit in AAA. I dont think his flaws would be super exposed until he gets to the majors where you can see it becoming an issue, but the Sox might just decide to live with it, given the composition of the outfield defense.
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Post by iakovos11 on Mar 17, 2023 7:00:51 GMT -5
I think by May or June he'll be in CF. I'm not super high on his bat for the reasons you mentioned, but I think with an outfield of Yoshida/Duvall/Verdugo the need for outfield defense will be great, particularly if Duval doesnt hit enough. At that point the Sox might figure, the hell with it, we're not getting much offense out of that spot anyways so let's get a badly needed glove to stabilize the OF defense. I think Rafaela is a bottom of the order unless he becomes more discerning at the plate. If he does you're talking a potential all star, but that's a huge if. I believe that there were reports that Rafaela was working on pitch selection following last season and that he had made progress. I saw a few of his televised at bats this spring looking specifically for that aspect and, to me, he looked like he was doing a good job of laying off. I have no doubt about his bat otherwise. He may be making progress, but I remember one of the few games I've had on was that game against the Jays where Bleis got the hit off Manoah. Rafaela came up and took two balls, which was nice. He then swung & missed at the next two pitches - breaking balls that fell out of the zone, and then swung right through the next pitch (fastball, I think) in the zone. I haven't watched a ton of spring baseball, so he may be making progress. His winter ball stats suggest he's making a little progress. I believe he'll make some progress. How much is the big question. Big leaguers do this against Manoah, sure. But this AB stuck in my mind.
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Post by terriblehondo on Mar 17, 2023 11:32:51 GMT -5
From what I have seen this spring at the plate it has been a mixed bag as far as pitch selection. The Manoah at bat described wasn't good. But Manoah can make anybody look bad. His routes in center have looked good from what I have seen. If he is as good at SS as advertised I would have no problem with him as a utility guy right now. But I value defense more than others. I really hope his bat does develop to the point he can be a regular.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Mar 29, 2023 10:10:46 GMT -5
Disappointed to hear he is starting the season at AA. First, because I was sure he would start at AAA and so I was wrong. Second, because starting him in AA indicates to me he is not making the progress at the plate the Red Sox feel is needed.
Hope he doesn't flame out. I had him penciled in as a big part of the Red Sox rebuild.
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Post by scottysmalls on Mar 29, 2023 10:16:37 GMT -5
Eh he only had 300 PAs at AA last year, it's not like he was there a full season, plus with Duran in AAA it blocks some CF time.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Mar 29, 2023 10:31:06 GMT -5
I think it’s a good idea to let him work on his approach in an environment where he has already successfully hit in. The pitchers will respect him in AA, so if his approach has really improved, he should be able to showcase it in Portland.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 29, 2023 10:39:14 GMT -5
As others have stated, he's played roughly half a season at AA. Let him try and build upon his approach at this level for a little while longer and if he shows last season was no fluke I'm sure he'll be up to AAA relatively soon.
I wouldn't take it as any sort of indictment that they've soured on his progress at the plate.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 29, 2023 10:44:15 GMT -5
Eh he only had 300 PAs at AA last year, it's not like he was there a full season, plus with Duran in AAA it blocks some CF time. I think the Duran aspect of it is probably the most important here. While Rafaela is obviously someone we expect to be an elite defender, he's still only been a full-time outfielder for a couple years now. Both he and Duran need to be getting everyday reps there, so I'd imagine that if/when Tapia comes back to earth and Duran eventually gets his second chance, Rafaela will slide right up into that void and stick there until he's ready to debut in the bigs.
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Post by 0ap0 on Apr 25, 2023 7:51:50 GMT -5
IRafaela's current ceiling seems to be simultaneous franchise player for eight different teams and an org guy in a ninth.
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Post by pappyman99 on Apr 26, 2023 7:42:43 GMT -5
People will jump all over me for this, but he to me is a very prime and obviously sell high guy
He just seems like a poor man’s JBJ to me. A high end 4th OF, I just think he is more valuable to us moving him in a trade this year
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 26, 2023 7:55:13 GMT -5
People will jump all over me for this, but he to me is a very prime and obviously sell high guy He just seems like a poor man’s JBJ to me. A high end 4th OF, I just think he is more valuable to us moving him in a trade this year I really can't disagree with this take, I had similar sentiments this offseason. Of the top 5-10 ranked guys in the system Rafaela is probably the one I'd be on board with moving for the right player. I'm sure you're not saying to give him away for some sort of mediocre type player who could fill a short term hole but if he can be the headliner for a good player who is controlled for 3+ years I'd flip him in a heartbeat to be honest. On the flipside even if he is a high end 4th OF who also has the ability to play basically every position other than C and 1st base at least average if not above average he offers plenty of value especially in the first few cheap cost controlled years.
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Post by patford on Apr 26, 2023 8:37:34 GMT -5
People will jump all over me for this, but he to me is a very prime and obviously sell high guy He just seems like a poor man’s JBJ to me. A high end 4th OF, I just think he is more valuable to us moving him in a trade this year I really can't disagree with this take, I had similar sentiments this offseason. Of the top 5-10 ranked guys in the system Rafaela is probably the one I'd be on board with moving for the right player. I'm sure you're not saying to give him away for some sort of mediocre type player who could fill a short term hole but if he can be the headliner for a good player who is controlled for 3+ years I'd flip him in a heartbeat to be honest. On the flipside even if he is a high end 4th OF who also has the ability to play basically every position other than C and 1st base at least average if not above average he offers plenty of value especially in the first few cheap cost controlled years. Any team always wants to sell high if they are moving a player. I'm not sure where the perception Rafaela is at some kind of a high point comes from. And what exactly would this selling high on a guy in AA ball bring in return? To me selling high on a prospect would be moving a player who got a call up and went on a hot streak which the team viewed as unsustainable due to flaws which hadn't been exposed on the MLB level. At this point I think moving Rafaela would be selling low because no one knows what he is or if he will fix his approach. So the return for him would be what?
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 26, 2023 8:48:09 GMT -5
I really can't disagree with this take, I had similar sentiments this offseason. Of the top 5-10 ranked guys in the system Rafaela is probably the one I'd be on board with moving for the right player. I'm sure you're not saying to give him away for some sort of mediocre type player who could fill a short term hole but if he can be the headliner for a good player who is controlled for 3+ years I'd flip him in a heartbeat to be honest. On the flipside even if he is a high end 4th OF who also has the ability to play basically every position other than C and 1st base at least average if not above average he offers plenty of value especially in the first few cheap cost controlled years. Any team always wants to sell high if they are moving a player. I'm not sure where the perception Rafaela is at some kind of a high point comes from. And what exactly would this selling high on a guy in AA ball bring in return? To me selling high on a prospect would be moving a player who got a call up and went on a hot streak which the team viewed as unsustainable due to flaws which hadn't been exposed on the MLB level. At this point I think moving Rafaela would be selling low because no one knows what he is or if he will fix his approach. So the return for him would be what? Yes that is the catch with making trades is that progression isn't linear and really you have to just make your best guess as to what the end result will be for the player, especially minor leaguers. The thought that he "may" have hit his high point would be if one thought that his numbers in AA last year where he had a .278/.330/.500 slash line in 284 ABs weren't sustainable while perhaps another team thought that they were. I bet they don't trade him and I'm okay with it if they don't because I do think even as a super sub who can play gold glove OF defense and solid 2nd/SS/3rd base defense is still valuable especially in those first couple years of service. My thought was just if they can get get an established Major Leaguer with 3+ years of control for him then I'd be on board with doing it as I don't know if I buy him refining his plate approach enough to become a solid first division every day starter.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Apr 26, 2023 8:49:26 GMT -5
My problem with the “let’s sell high on this guy” argument is this.
How do you know you’re selling high on a guy?
What if Xander Bogaerts never panned out? If that was the case then trading him mid 2013 would have been selling high. Whatever return you received would likely have been much less valuable than the value he returned over a decade.
It’s purely hindsight to say “we should have traded this guy” just like it is to say “we shouldn’t have traded this guy”
I think you trade prospects to fill in the holes when you can stomach the possibility of trading away a star because your team and farm are already strong. I wouldn’t trade Mayer for anyone for example. But If this was a 95 win team, with tons of young talent locked up, and other guys isn’t system then yes, I would.
Right now, Rafaela’s value could be the highest it will ever be OR the lowest it will ever be again. All depending on what he does moving forward.
We don’t have a crystal ball, and the future could certainly use CF/SS. So….yeah sign me for not trading him.
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Post by jimoh on Apr 26, 2023 9:04:30 GMT -5
My problem with the “let’s sell high on this guy” argument is this. How do you know you’re selling high on a guy? What if Xander Bogaerts never panned out? If that was the case then trading him mid 2013 would have been selling high. Whatever return you received would likely have been much less valuable than the value he returned over a decade. It’s purely hindsight to say “we should have traded this guy” just like it is to say “we shouldn’t have traded this guy” I think you trade prospects to fill in the holes when you can stomach the possibility of trading away a star because your team and farm are already strong. I wouldn’t trade Mayer for anyone for example. But If this was a 95 win team, with tons of young talent locked up, and other guys isn’t system then yes, I would. Right now, Rafaela’s value could be the highest it will ever be OR the lowest it will ever be again. All depending on what he does moving forward. We don’t have a crystal ball, and the future could certainly use CF/SS. So….yeah sign me for not trading him. In 2013 there were zero reasons to think that Xander Bogaerts would not be a successful major league hitter, and possibly an outstanding one. Natural power and a great approach. It was not clear that he would be an acceptable shortstop, but he was working at it. The one we should have sold high on was Will Middlebrooks, who looked like a beast in 2012 but had holes in his games which drove him out of baseball.
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Post by bosoxnation on Apr 26, 2023 9:07:27 GMT -5
Let me get this straight. We’re willing to give Casas more time but 60 ABs into the season we’re giving up on Rafaela. I don’t get it.
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