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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 26, 2023 9:09:21 GMT -5
Even if the Sox think being short Rafaela is the right move, its pretty tough to actually execute a trade that takes advantage of that. How many trades leaguewide since last season ended involved a top 100 guys getting moved? Without looking it up, I would guess like 5. Beyond that, the Sox aren't in go for it now mode, and prospect for prospect challenge trades are extremely rare.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 26, 2023 9:30:11 GMT -5
Let me get this straight. We’re willing to give Casas more time but 60 ABs into the season we’re giving up on Rafaela. I don’t get it. Who's giving up on him? That's not what "selling high" means. You can think that he would deliver more value in a trade than he would end up providing as an MLB player while also acknowledging he is still likely to provide value as an MLB player. I'd be perfectly fine if they decided to kept him even if I'm pretty low on his offensive outlook relative to most, but if they had to trade a top 10 guy I would absolutely prefer it be him given he maximizes the intersection of value he'd likely return as well as the biggest current gap between his perceived value by the consensus and his perceived value by me. But that's way different than giving up, that's a pretty quick jump to the extremes.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Apr 26, 2023 9:49:28 GMT -5
I don't even know what 'selling high' looks like for a guy like Rafaela. He is a good prospect but nowhere near good enough to headline a package. Pretty sure everyone believes he is an elite glove with an average hit tool at best, and that is still several years away. And we saw this past offseason teams are really reluctant to give up major league talent for prospects. What exactly do people expect to come back for a player like that? My guess is Red Sox fans would be outraged at whatever the Red Sox got back in a trade that sends him away.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 26, 2023 9:56:17 GMT -5
I don't even know what 'selling high' looks like for a guy like Rafaela. He is a good prospect but nowhere near good enough to headline a package. Pretty sure everyone believes he is an elite glove with an average hit tool at best, and that is still several years away. And we saw this past offseason teams are really reluctant to give up major league talent for prospects. What exactly do people expect to come back for a player like that? My guess is Red Sox fans would be outraged at whatever the Red Sox got back in a trade that sends him away. This is getting way off-topic but to me he's not so much a headliner as a guy you'd add to an existing MLB player to juice up a trade for an upgrade (so like, for example, if they were to trade Houck and Rafaela for an upgrade in the rotation, or something along those lines).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 26, 2023 10:01:59 GMT -5
The thing with "selling high" is the assumption day the public perception of a player lines up with the industry evaluation. Rafaela strikes me as a guy whose public valuation may have been higher than that of teams, although it only takes one, I guess.
And yeah I think if Dombrowski were the GM Rafaela gets moved this past offseason.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Apr 26, 2023 10:04:56 GMT -5
Let me get this straight. We’re willing to give Casas more time but 60 ABs into the season we’re giving up on Rafaela. I don’t get it. No one is giving up on Rafaela because off 60 atbats. Some people are concerned that in his 500 PA last year and in his first 60 this year he has shown a particular weakness, that we know he is trying to work on, and it would be nice to see some evidence of improvement there.
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Post by patford on Apr 26, 2023 10:20:18 GMT -5
The thing with "selling high" is the assumption day the public perception of a player lines up with the industry evaluation. Rafaela strikes me as a guy whose public valuation may have been higher than that of teams, although it only takes one, I guess. And yeah I think if Dombrowski were the GM Rafaela gets moved this past offseason. As he's a high upside prospect with a major unknown any trade at this time would be selling low. The team seems to think highly of him or he probably would have been moved. There probably is interest from other teams because he's tantalizing. To me he's exactly the sort of prospect you do not trade unless the organization thinks they have positively identified a flaw which is beyond fixing which would be something like an inability to hit a high fast ball. His bat speed and hand to eye coordination are a factor that in a sense works against his exit velocities. Which is to say when he chases he makes weak contact where another player would swing a miss. This makes it hard to judge is exit velocities on a numbers level as strike outs are not a factor which can drag down a exit velocity and weak contact does. What would it do to exit velocities if strike outs were factored in as a zero? In any case it seems to me it's the Sox Prospects staff who are pumping the brakes on high expectations when they see fans here clamoring for Rafaela now or thinking he will be up after the All Star game. And rightly so as he hasn't shown he can hit advanced pitching.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 26, 2023 10:26:39 GMT -5
If it ever feels obvious that they should sell high on a guy, I question whether that player is actually worth as much as we think he is. Other teams have scouts and analysts looking at this full time, do we think they can't see the red flags that jump out to people looking at a Fangraphs page and reading public reports?
Not talking about Rafaela in particular, I don't think it's necessarily obvious they should trade him now. But I felt this way about guys like Dalbec who surged in rankings after strong showings in the high minors but with big swing holes.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Apr 26, 2023 11:39:19 GMT -5
The thing with "selling high" is the assumption day the public perception of a player lines up with the industry evaluation. Rafaela strikes me as a guy whose public valuation may have been higher than that of teams, although it only takes one, I guess. And yeah I think if Dombrowski were the GM Rafaela gets moved this past offseason. You've mentioned that you are lower on Rafaela than the general public opinion due to being burned in the past by defense-1st prospects, but where are you getting the above take? This a 'gut feeling' or something more?
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Post by greatscottcooper on Apr 26, 2023 12:14:04 GMT -5
My problem with the “let’s sell high on this guy” argument is this. How do you know you’re selling high on a guy? What if Xander Bogaerts never panned out? If that was the case then trading him mid 2013 would have been selling high. Whatever return you received would likely have been much less valuable than the value he returned over a decade. It’s purely hindsight to say “we should have traded this guy” just like it is to say “we shouldn’t have traded this guy” I think you trade prospects to fill in the holes when you can stomach the possibility of trading away a star because your team and farm are already strong. I wouldn’t trade Mayer for anyone for example. But If this was a 95 win team, with tons of young talent locked up, and other guys isn’t system then yes, I would. Right now, Rafaela’s value could be the highest it will ever be OR the lowest it will ever be again. All depending on what he does moving forward. We don’t have a crystal ball, and the future could certainly use CF/SS. So….yeah sign me for not trading him. In 2013 there were zero reasons to think that Xander Bogaerts would not be a successful major league hitter, and possibly an outstanding one. Natural power and a great approach. It was not clear that he would be an acceptable shortstop, but he was working at it. The one we should have sold high on was Will Middlebrooks, who looked like a beast in 2012 but had holes in his games which drove him out of baseball. Yes, Xander is a different prospect than Rafaela, that wasn't my intention to compare the two, you could use anyone who was a prospect at one point who then went on to have a productive career. Take your pick. And to be fair, there's no such thing as having zero reason to think something that hasn't happened yet will happen. We've seen the #1 prospect in all of baseball faulter before. Bogaerts was just a really really really good prospect who we had a lot of faith in that he was going to pan out, and he did.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Apr 29, 2023 9:26:23 GMT -5
Christopher Smith on twitter notes that Rafaela "has gone 14-for-34 (.412) over an eight-game hitting streak to raise his slash line to .310/.347/.423/.770." Would love to know whether this involves better selectivity within the zone.
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Guidas
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Post by Guidas on Apr 29, 2023 9:33:20 GMT -5
Christopher Smith on twitter notes that Rafaela "has gone 14-for-34 (.412) over an eight-game hitting streak to raise his slash line to .310/.347/.423/.770." Would love to know whether this involves better selectivity within the zone. Exactly, or if he's following the Jarred Duran "See the ball, hit the ball" method. Also, Rafaela is my newest binky, but I want to see him sustain this kind of approach/results for about 100-150 more PAs before I move him up.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 29, 2023 9:56:26 GMT -5
Christopher Smith on twitter notes that Rafaela "has gone 14-for-34 (.412) over an eight-game hitting streak to raise his slash line to .310/.347/.423/.770." Would love to know whether this involves better selectivity within the zone. This doesn't directly answer your specific question, but he has one walk in that stretch and a .520 BABIP. Nothing much on the surface to suggest a change in approach.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 29, 2023 13:11:26 GMT -5
Rafaela is doing fine but isn’t hitting for power, is striking out too much, still isn’t walking, and has committed multiple errors in the outfield. I don’t see an argument for his stock being higher than it was last year.
Still all things considered his line is solid. It just seems heavily BABIP fueled
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Post by jbsox on May 13, 2023 7:38:52 GMT -5
I see 110 at bats into the season Rafaela is hitting .236 with a .263 OBP. I’m curious with national rankings if he’ll quickly fall as fast as he has risen. MLB currently has him at 75. I’d love for him to be a star as it would a great story, but that may be far fetched, an average regular with great D seems more likely, or may even fall to just a utility player. Such a polarizing prospect it seems.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 13, 2023 13:59:03 GMT -5
Not that concerned, he’s just slumping right now. Had a good April
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on May 13, 2023 14:12:04 GMT -5
Not that concerned, he’s just slumping right now. Had a good April 2 for 3 with a walk and four SB today, in the seventh inning. And he just stole his fifth, stealing third before the pitcher even delivers, then beating the pitcher's throw to 3rd. The announcer says it's his 4th sb, but the box score says 5. I've only seen a couple of innings. Now he scores after the throw from the C gets away from the P. Ninth inning: second walk and two more stolen bases for seven, 17 on the year.. The Somerset catcher is not Johnny Bench. Note: one of the seven has been called “defensive indifference”
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Post by bosoxnation on May 13, 2023 16:36:50 GMT -5
He's only 22. He's probably 2-3 years from being an MLB player. I think he's progressing extremely well. We have to remember to be patient with young 20 year old's. I think he should play this whole year in AA and next year AAA and then we will see what we got with him. We're not in need of an outfielder at this point anyway so we are lucky enough to no have to rush him.
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Post by sarasoxer on May 13, 2023 18:01:13 GMT -5
He's only 22. He's probably 2-3 years from being an MLB player. I think he's progressing extremely well. We have to remember to be patient with young 20 year old's. I think he should play this whole year in AA and next year AAA and then we will see what we got with him. We're not in need of an outfielder at this point anyway so we are lucky enough to no have to rush him. Remember when Conigliaro and Yaz were in the majors at 20 and 21? I love Bleis defensively...and expect above average offense too. I'd like to think that he would be ready in 2 years at age 24 max.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 13, 2023 19:17:21 GMT -5
He's only 22. He's probably 2-3 years from being an MLB player. I think he's progressing extremely well. We have to remember to be patient with young 20 year old's. I think he should play this whole year in AA and next year AAA and then we will see what we got with him. We're not in need of an outfielder at this point anyway so we are lucky enough to no have to rush him. Remember when Conigliaro and Yaz were in the majors at 20 and 21? I love Bleis defensively...and expect above average offense too. I'd like to think that he would be ready in 2 years at age 24 max. Not many of us remember age 21 Yaz in 1960 or 19 year old Tony C in 1964, lol. Actually Tony C was a HR champ at age 20, in 1965. That guy would likely have hit 500 plus HRs if he hadn't been beaned in 1967. For more current times, Devers makes sense as I think he was up at age 20. I think Jeff Suppan debuted in 1995 at age 20 as well.
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Post by bosoxnation on May 13, 2023 23:09:46 GMT -5
He's only 22. He's probably 2-3 years from being an MLB player. I think he's progressing extremely well. We have to remember to be patient with young 20 year old's. I think he should play this whole year in AA and next year AAA and then we will see what we got with him. We're not in need of an outfielder at this point anyway so we are lucky enough to no have to rush him. Remember when Conigliaro and Yaz were in the majors at 20 and 21? I love Bleis defensively...and expect above average offense too. I'd like to think that he would be ready in 2 years at age 24 max. Mookie, Bogaerts and Devers were all up young. Those are all stars. Yes there’s a few guys that make it up early. Mostly because of need. We’re able to bring Rafaela up in 2 years without rushing him and putting him in the best situation to succeed. That or i can see us dealing him for pitching.
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Post by wcsoxfan on May 14, 2023 9:30:16 GMT -5
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Post by sarasoxer on May 14, 2023 9:32:32 GMT -5
Remember when Conigliaro and Yaz were in the majors at 20 and 21? I love Bleis defensively...and expect above average offense too. I'd like to think that he would be ready in 2 years at age 24 max. Mookie, Bogaerts and Devers were all up young. Those are all stars. Yes there’s a few guys that make it up early. Mostly because of need. We’re able to bring Rafaela up in 2 years without rushing him and putting him in the best situation to succeed. That or i can see us dealing him for pitching. True enough. I can't see us trading Rafaela tho. He's started a bit slow with the bat but his MLB arrival will coincide with the Duvall departure...He is special in the field and exudes confidence without swagger. He will be popular in Beantown.
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Post by kingstephanos on May 14, 2023 13:03:50 GMT -5
Mookie, Bogaerts and Devers were all up young. Those are all stars. Yes there’s a few guys that make it up early. Mostly because of need. We’re able to bring Rafaela up in 2 years without rushing him and putting him in the best situation to succeed. That or i can see us dealing him for pitching. True enough. I can't see us trading Rafaela tho. He's started a bit slow with the bat but his MLB arrival will coincide with the Duvall departure...He is special in the field and exudes confidence without swagger. He will be popular in Beantown. I can't disagree with the Rafaela appreciation, as he's both dynamic in the field and on the base paths. If he can be an above replacement-level player (meaning his bat doesn't sink his WAR) then it would be much better to keep him - especially from a roster construction stand point. I will say, "hot and cold" bats (a la JBJ) do frighten me when it comes to promising prospects. The bat is the most important tool to have - hopefully he can learn to become at least an adequate hitter at the big league level.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on May 14, 2023 13:21:39 GMT -5
Rafaela has 2 outstanding tools (D and base running). His hit tool may not be ideal, but he has shown he has some pop. In my opinion, he will at least be able to hit .260 with an OBP of .310. No that isn't great but with everything he can bring, he is a quality player.
I'm all for them trying to get him more selective but don't take away his ability to "sting" the ball. With it heating up, Ceddanne may be more productive once again.
Many players have NO outstanding skills. This guy could be dynamic even with him doing some chasing!
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