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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by incandenza on Jun 7, 2023 8:56:44 GMT -5
Rafaela has gotten hot in the last couple weeks, hitting .378/.380/.667 since May 25th with four doubles and three homers.
On the one hand, it's hard to complain about a 1.047 OPS. On the other hand, I kind of want to complain about the OBP being only .002 higher than the AVG. (He has just two walks in 50 PA.)
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Post by huskies15 on Jun 7, 2023 9:18:33 GMT -5
I think the fact that he's impacting the baseball again is more important than the lack of walks. There's a happy medium that he hasn't quite reached, but with his defense I think it's more important to see he can still get to some pop. We'll see where his approach settles in.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 7, 2023 9:25:53 GMT -5
I think the fact that he's impacting the baseball again is more important than the lack of walks. There's a happy medium that he hasn't quite reached, but with his defense I think it's more important to see he can still get to some pop. We'll see where his approach settles in. I would disagree with this. It's certainly nice to see him hitting, but we already knew he could impact the baseball when he makes contact with it. I am still pretty hesitant to fully buy in until we see him improve on his areas of weakness as opposed to having stretches where his strengths are amplified.
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Post by jmei on Jun 7, 2023 10:25:11 GMT -5
I'm not sure that walk rate is the right metric to be monitoring with Rafaela. Given his scouting report (not enough pitch recognition and aggressive approach) and the fact that he's in the high minors with his defense likely pushing him to the majors sooner rather than later, I just don't ever think he's ever going to be a guy who walks a lot, and I don't think asking him to take pitches just for the sake of taking pitches is going to help his development (it's just going to put him behind in the count more). Instead, I think the emphasis should be on selective aggression and swinging at the right pitches (pitches he can drive rather than pitches he's going to put into play weakly). Unfortunately, a lot of those stats (z-swing rate, o-swing rate, etc.) aren't readily available for minor leaguers, but looking at his strikeout rate (as a proxy for swinging at the right pitches) and isolated power (as a proxy for his ability to consistently drive pitches) is more important to me than how frequently he walks.
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Post by patford on Jun 7, 2023 10:40:42 GMT -5
I'm not sure that walk rate is the right metric to be monitoring with Rafaela. Given his scouting report (not enough pitch recognition and aggressive approach) and the fact that he's in the high minors with his defense likely pushing him to the majors sooner rather than later, I just don't ever think he's ever going to be a guy who walks a lot, and I don't think asking him to take pitches just for the sake of taking pitches is going to help his development (it's just going to put him behind in the count more). Instead, I think the emphasis should be on selective aggression and swinging at the right pitches (pitches he can drive rather than pitches he's going to put into play weakly). Unfortunately, a lot of those stats (z-swing rate, o-swing rate, etc.) aren't readily available for minor leaguers, but looking at his strikeout rate (as a proxy for swinging at the right pitches) and isolated power (as a proxy for his ability to consistently drive pitches) is more important to me than how frequently he walks. I'd like to see him called up if there is a 15 day IL injury where he would fill the opening. It's too soon to bring him up with the intention that he's MLB ready and is going to play every day but I'd love to see what kind of difference his defense would make and if his aggressive approach at the plate plays at all against advanced pitching.
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Post by jbsox on Jun 7, 2023 16:37:00 GMT -5
I see 110 at bats into the season Rafaela is hitting .236 with a .263 OBP. I’m curious with national rankings if he’ll quickly fall as fast as he has risen. MLB currently has him at 75. I’d love for him to be a star as it would a great story, but that may be far fetched, an average regular with great D seems more likely, or may even fall to just a utility player. Such a polarizing prospect it seems. It’s nice to see my reverse jinx worked, and he’s been on mostly a tear since my comment above. 😊
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 7, 2023 18:45:50 GMT -5
I see 110 at bats into the season Rafaela is hitting .236 with a .263 OBP. I’m curious with national rankings if he’ll quickly fall as fast as he has risen. MLB currently has him at 75. I’d love for him to be a star as it would a great story, but that may be far fetched, an average regular with great D seems more likely, or may even fall to just a utility player. Such a polarizing prospect it seems. It’s nice to see my reverse jinx worked, and he’s been on mostly a tear since my comment above. 😊 It may say rookie poster but that was a savvy veteran move
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jun 8, 2023 1:07:40 GMT -5
Rafaela has gotten hot in the last couple weeks, hitting .378/.380/.667 since May 25th with four doubles and three homers. On the one hand, it's hard to complain about a 1.047 OPS. On the other hand, I kind of want to complain about the OBP being only .002 higher than the AVG. (He has just two walks in 50 PA.)
Definitely fun seeing his numbers go up with his current hot-streak. The 2 walks in 50 PA is .040, which is in-line with the .038 gap he has this season, so it's not great, but it's consistent.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jun 8, 2023 1:12:34 GMT -5
Rafaela has hit about as well this year in AA as he did last year, but with more stolen bases and less power. The power he has shown in 2019, 2021 and 2022 was consistent and trending upward, which makes sense as he has grown and added muscle: 2019: 1.675 bases per hit 2021: 1.687 bases per hit 2022: 1.799 bases per hit 2023: 1.455 bases per hit
It's quite odd that he had such a power outage at the beginning of the season, but it's picking up now. If we assume it was a fluke, then he's right in-line with what he did last season in Portland.
(I used 'bases per hit' as it doesn't scale with batting average, the way ISO does)
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 8, 2023 7:12:29 GMT -5
It’s pretty f’n cold in Maine for a kid from DR in April and May. I’d hazard a guess that played into his slow start. He never lived/played in cold weather in his life.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 8, 2023 10:22:21 GMT -5
That and the 42% chase rate in June probably. He did bring it down to 40% this month (so, presumably, about 38% in May) but only Alfaro, Jimenez, Montero and Lugo have chased outside the zone more.
He's also struggled against velocity, although that wasn't an issue last year. I feel like that might be where the weather thing is showing up?
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Post by foreverred9 on Jun 8, 2023 18:01:13 GMT -5
He had an at bat last night where he had bases loaded, got to 0-1 count, then proceeded to chase two balls below the zone to strike out. Thankfully the catcher missed it then threw it into right field so 2 runs scored, but it was an ugly at bat in a key moment.
I just can't get excited when every month Chris mentions that his chase rate hasn't changed. It's disappointing, as the pitching is only going to get better as he moves up.
He's certainly young so it's not time to give up on him, but it's feeling so far like a year with no development. They might need to just bump him up at some point to force the issue more on him, as it doesn't seem like he can change it at AA.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 15, 2023 16:02:57 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 15, 2023 16:34:56 GMT -5
Was thinking about it today, unless there's an injury, I bet Niko Goodrum's July 1 opt-out is when they do it. If he opts out, there's your roster spot. If he doesn't, then fine, cut someone loose. Keeps the depth.
That said, also could see it happening Monday. Abreu is close and he might be the guy who takes the spot I'm talking about above.
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Guidas
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Post by Guidas on Jun 16, 2023 12:17:13 GMT -5
Was thinking about it today, unless there's an injury, I bet Niko Goodrum's July 1 opt-out is when they do it. If he opts out, there's your roster spot. If he doesn't, then fine, cut someone loose. Keeps the depth. That said, also could see it happening Monday. Abreu is close and he might be the guy who takes the spot I'm talking about above. How about he just move him up to MLB to play SS and roll with the ABs? Then send Casas down, put Turner on 1st, Masa to DH, Kiké to second, an OF of Duvall, Duran and Verdugo, DFA Arroyo and bring up Dalbec to spell Turner? Not that I've given this any real thought. I'm just thinking of run-prevention without sacrificing too much offense. I mean, how much worse can Rafaela be than Reyes/Arroyo, who he'd be effectively replacing?
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 16, 2023 12:21:13 GMT -5
Was thinking about it today, unless there's an injury, I bet Niko Goodrum's July 1 opt-out is when they do it. If he opts out, there's your roster spot. If he doesn't, then fine, cut someone loose. Keeps the depth. That said, also could see it happening Monday. Abreu is close and he might be the guy who takes the spot I'm talking about above. How about he just move him up to MLB to play SS and roll with the ABs? Then send Casas down, put Turner on 1st, Masa to DH, Kiké to second, an OF of Duvall, Duran and Verdugo, DFA Arroyo and bring up Dalbec to spell Turner? Not that I've given this any real thought. I'm just thinking of run-prevention without sacrificing too much offense. I mean, how much worse can Rafaela be than Reyes/Arroyo, who he'd be effectively replacing? I had a similar thought on Rafaela, I realize it's probably very unlikely but I also don't think it's the craziest of ideas. As you said how much worse than Reyes can he be and his ceiling is much higher in the chance that he hits the ground running.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 16, 2023 12:24:27 GMT -5
How about he just move him up to MLB to play SS and roll with the ABs? Then send Casas down, put Turner on 1st, Masa to DH, Kiké to second, an OF of Duvall, Duran and Verdugo, DFA Arroyo and bring up Dalbec to spell Turner? Not that I've given this any real thought. I'm just thinking of run-prevention without sacrificing too much offense. I mean, how much worse can Rafaela be than Reyes/Arroyo, who he'd be effectively replacing? I had a similar thought on Rafaela, I realize it's probably very unlikely but I also don't think it's the craziest of ideas. As you said how much worse than Reyes can he be and his ceiling is much higher in the chance that he hits the ground running. Or he is a little worse than Reyes, struggles, you've started his clock and set his development back. I can see the case but personally would rather wait until they think he's ready. Also my impression is that while he's a good short stop he's a stud in center, and I'd rather he comes up there first and wins fans over with his glove regardless of what happens with the bat.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 16, 2023 12:27:53 GMT -5
I had a similar thought on Rafaela, I realize it's probably very unlikely but I also don't think it's the craziest of ideas. As you said how much worse than Reyes can he be and his ceiling is much higher in the chance that he hits the ground running. Or he is a little worse than Reyes, struggles, you've started his clock and set his development back. I can see the case but personally would rather wait until they think he's ready. Also my impression is that while he's a good short stop he's a stud in center, and I'd rather he comes up there first and wins fans over with his glove regardless of what happens with the bat. Valid points but I guess I kind of see the clock thing as irrelevant. If he struggles send him back to AAA and you chew up what .10 of a season? I'm not saying it's likely I know that it isn't but on the flipside maybe he's a spark plug to the team that could certainly use one right now.
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Post by kingstephanos on Jun 16, 2023 13:20:05 GMT -5
I'm curious, many of you guys would want the Red Sox to sneak into the playoffs this year?
I'm not sure I see the usefulness in any approach that tries to squeeze potential playoff appearances from this clearly mediocre stone of a team (whom occasionally display a modicum of competency).
To play devil's advocate, I'd put forth the idea that bringing up Rafaela and putting him alongside guys that are just playing out the string would be detrimental to his development. These guys don't compare to the "chicken and beer" squad, but pushing prospects into the deep end of losing and unmet expectations may not be the best course of action.
Duran, for example, did not prosper last year as the team put up loss after loss on the field
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jun 16, 2023 13:28:34 GMT -5
I'm curious, many of you guys would want the Red Sox to sneak into the playoffs this year? I'm not sure I see the usefulness in any approach that tries to squeeze potential playoff appearances from this clearly mediocre stone of a team (whom occasionally display a modicum of competency). To play devil's advocate, I'd put forth the idea that bringing up Rafaela and putting him alongside guys that are just playing out the string would be detrimental to his development. These guys don't compare to the "chicken and beer" squad, but pushing prospects into the deep end of losing and unmet expectations may not be the best course of action. Duran, for example, did not prosper last year as the team put up loss after loss on the field Why wouldn't you want them to make the playoffs? Unless you're battling for the top pick in the draft (lottery aside), isn't missing the postseason and picking 15th the worst case scenario?
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 16, 2023 13:42:59 GMT -5
I think Rafaela would be a lot worse than Reyes. Reyes gets on base at a decent clip and is probably a better defender at the position
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 16, 2023 13:56:27 GMT -5
I think Rafaela would be a lot worse than Reyes. Reyes gets on base at a decent clip and is probably a better defender at the position Yeah worth calling out that Reyes has given pretty much what you could have hoped for. He's been above replacement level, he has an 84 wRC+. I'm not sure Rafaela could match that right now.
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Guidas
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Post by Guidas on Jun 16, 2023 16:50:08 GMT -5
I'm curious, many of you guys would want the Red Sox to sneak into the playoffs this year? I'm not sure I see the usefulness in any approach that tries to squeeze potential playoff appearances from this clearly mediocre stone of a team (whom occasionally display a modicum of competency). To play devil's advocate, I'd put forth the idea that bringing up Rafaela and putting him alongside guys that are just playing out the string would be detrimental to his development. These guys don't compare to the "chicken and beer" squad, but pushing prospects into the deep end of losing and unmet expectations may not be the best course of action. Duran, for example, did not prosper last year as the team put up loss after loss on the field I would be all for squeaking into the playoffs. Once you're in, the odds are literally a coin-flip. It also helps for attracting free agents. Yes, please.
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Post by kingstephanos on Jun 16, 2023 16:55:19 GMT -5
I'm curious, many of you guys would want the Red Sox to sneak into the playoffs this year? I'm not sure I see the usefulness in any approach that tries to squeeze potential playoff appearances from this clearly mediocre stone of a team (whom occasionally display a modicum of competency). To play devil's advocate, I'd put forth the idea that bringing up Rafaela and putting him alongside guys that are just playing out the string would be detrimental to his development. These guys don't compare to the "chicken and beer" squad, but pushing prospects into the deep end of losing and unmet expectations may not be the best course of action. Duran, for example, did not prosper last year as the team put up loss after loss on the field I would be all for squeaking into the playoffs. Once you're in, the odds are literally a coin-flip. It also helps for attracting free agents. Yes, please. Hmmm, maybe. But I'd say cash (a la San Diego) attracts free agents more than a Wild Card playoff loss. But that's me 🤷🏽
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Post by kingstephanos on Jun 16, 2023 17:01:27 GMT -5
I'm curious, many of you guys would want the Red Sox to sneak into the playoffs this year? I'm not sure I see the usefulness in any approach that tries to squeeze potential playoff appearances from this clearly mediocre stone of a team (whom occasionally display a modicum of competency). To play devil's advocate, I'd put forth the idea that bringing up Rafaela and putting him alongside guys that are just playing out the string would be detrimental to his development. These guys don't compare to the "chicken and beer" squad, but pushing prospects into the deep end of losing and unmet expectations may not be the best course of action. Duran, for example, did not prosper last year as the team put up loss after loss on the field Why wouldn't you want them to make the playoffs? Unless you're battling for the top pick in the draft (lottery aside), isn't missing the postseason and picking 15th the worst case scenario? As an entitled Patriots fan, I really don't care about a playoff entrance unless the team has the horses to actually win the title outright. Being happy just to get there always seemed like a 'small market' belief system (found in places like Jacksonville or Charlotte).
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