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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
asm18
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Post by asm18 on Feb 28, 2024 9:59:32 GMT -5
Isn't Rafaela eligible for the Prospect Promotion Incentive? www.mlb.com/news/prospect-performance-incentive-ppi-eligible-playersHe doesn't seem to really profile as a guy who would typically win the Rookie of the Year award needed to net you an extra pick (elite defense in center field isn't exactly sexy to the voters) but recent or near-recent examples of RoY winners have included like Michael Harris II (2022), Jonathan India (2021), Kyle Lewis (2020 - short season), Michael Fulmer (2016) Andrew Bailey (2009) so I guess you never know. www.mlb.com/awards/rookie-of-the-year
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 28, 2024 10:05:37 GMT -5
Isn't Rafaela eligible for the Prospect Promotion Incentive? www.mlb.com/news/prospect-performance-incentive-ppi-eligible-playersHe doesn't seem to really profile as a guy who would typically win the Rookie of the Year award needed to net you an extra pick (elite defense in center field isn't exactly sexy to the voters) but recent or near-recent examples of RoY winners have included like Michael Harris II (2022), Jonathan India (2021), Kyle Lewis (2020 - short season), Michael Fulmer (2016) Andrew Bailey (2009) so I guess you never know. www.mlb.com/awards/rookie-of-the-yearHe is eligible, BA and MLB both ranked him top 100. He's such a long shot for RoY though I doubt this is a big factor. Bigger to me is that if they think he's an MLB caliber player he is an obvious roster fit as they don't otherwise have a real centerfielder (unless Duran or Abreu took a big step forward this offseason).
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Post by 0ap0 on Feb 28, 2024 10:07:45 GMT -5
I don't think they play games with the control on Rafaela I just think it comes down to will he play every day or close to it? If the answer is yes, he breaks camp. If the answer is no he will be in AAA so that he can play every day. Chances are one way or another he is one of the top 12-13 position players in the org right now but if he's more in the 10-13 range and will be used as a utility guy then it would be a disservice to his development since IMO he needs to be playing every day to get reps in the batters box. I agree. I also have a sneaking suspicion that the deciding factor will largely be the injury status of other position players. As in how much would we be playing a utility guy right away?
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 28, 2024 10:14:17 GMT -5
I don't think they play games with the control on Rafaela I just think it comes down to will he play every day or close to it? If the answer is yes, he breaks camp. If the answer is no he will be in AAA so that he can play every day. Chances are one way or another he is one of the top 12-13 position players in the org right now but if he's more in the 10-13 range and will be used as a utility guy then it would be a disservice to his development since IMO he needs to be playing every day to get reps in the batters box. I agree. I also have a sneaking suspicion that the deciding factor will largely be the injury status of other position players. As in how much would we be playing a utility guy right away?Disagree on this point, I think if Rafaela makes it, while he might flex around a bit, it'll be because they intend to run him as the starting centerfielder.
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 28, 2024 10:19:53 GMT -5
I agree. I also have a sneaking suspicion that the deciding factor will largely be the injury status of other position players. As in how much would we be playing a utility guy right away?Disagree on this point, I think if Rafaela makes it, while he might flex around a bit, it'll be because they intend to run him as the starting centerfielder. This is my thoughts as well, Cora has said something along the lines of he needs repetitions at this level in CF. That would lead me to believe if he's on the opening day roster he's their starting CF. That doesn't mean at some point in the year if Grissom or Story go down he wouldn't slide there to help.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Feb 28, 2024 10:41:15 GMT -5
I agree. I also have a sneaking suspicion that the deciding factor will largely be the injury status of other position players. As in how much would we be playing a utility guy right away?Disagree on this point, I think if Rafaela makes it, while he might flex around a bit, it'll be because they intend to run him as the starting centerfielder. Tangential to this: Pablo Reyes has been getting reps at 1B and is starting there today vs the Nationals. If McGuire (or Roberto Perez?) backs up at catcher, Reyes covers for any infield position, and Refsnyder can competently preform in any OF position, they will have the leeway to put really whoever they want in that last bench spot. Is there enough at-bats to go around for 3 OF spots between Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, O'Neill, with some sporadic Yoshida days in left and Refsnyder vs the occasional lefty? That's 6 OF options altogether, with the caveat that Rafaela can play infield as needed.
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 28, 2024 10:44:36 GMT -5
The main incentive to not playing service time games with Rafaela is honor. The PPI is worth very little since he has maybe a 5% chance of winning ROY. It's not hurting the team very much to keep him down for a month even if you believe he should be the starting CF. The extra year of control dwarfs those two factors, even for a guy who is not a likely MVP candidate type player.
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 28, 2024 10:47:33 GMT -5
Disagree on this point, I think if Rafaela makes it, while he might flex around a bit, it'll be because they intend to run him as the starting centerfielder. Tangential to this: Pablo Reyes has been getting reps at 1B and is starting there today vs the Nationals. If McGuire (or Roberto Perez?) backs up at catcher, Reyes covers for any infield position, and Refsnyder can competently preform in any OF position, they will have the leeway to put really whoever they want in that last bench spot. Is there enough at-bats to go around for 3 OF spots between Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, O'Neill, with some sporadic Yoshida days in left and Refsnyder vs the occasional lefty? That's 6 OF options altogether, with the caveat that Rafaela can play infield as needed. Lmao I get that in a perfect world Reyes could back up the whole infield, but he's 5'8". Putting him at 1B outside of emergencies would be awful... Maybe they really do intend to play Casas nearly every day, promote Rafaela, and start Bobby in AAA? Or at least they want to see if Reyes can fake it there if they decide to do that?
Edit: Given the 6 OF candidates and that Refsnyder would really be the obvious emergency 1B solution, this makes me worry for Refsnyder's future if Ceddanne makes the team.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 28, 2024 10:52:55 GMT -5
Pretty split camp. That’s fun, it’ll be interesting to see how this shakes out.
Adam Duvall is still out there too and obviously if they brought him back, this could become a lot easier to predict.
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soxin8
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Post by soxin8 on Feb 28, 2024 10:55:02 GMT -5
Isn't Rafaela eligible for the Prospect Promotion Incentive? www.mlb.com/news/prospect-performance-incentive-ppi-eligible-playersHe doesn't seem to really profile as a guy who would typically win the Rookie of the Year award needed to net you an extra pick (elite defense in center field isn't exactly sexy to the voters) but recent or near-recent examples of RoY winners have included like Michael Harris II (2022), Jonathan India (2021), Kyle Lewis (2020 - short season), Michael Fulmer (2016) Andrew Bailey (2009) so I guess you never know. www.mlb.com/awards/rookie-of-the-yearHe is eligible, BA and MLB both ranked him top 100. He's such a long shot for RoY though I doubt this is a big factor. Bigger to me is that if they think he's an MLB caliber player he is an obvious roster fit as they don't otherwise have a real centerfielder (unless Duran or Abreu took a big step forward this offseason). I was thinking the deciding factor on where Rafaela started would be if Boston added another outfielder like Duvall and how Duran looks in center this spring. Someone calculated May 16th as the cutoff for getting an extra year of control. Probably all of us here are glad the Sox delayed Pivetta in 2020 to have him this year. Still it's a difficult decision if they believe Ceddanne gives them the best chance to win now along with the RoY draft pick possibility.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 28, 2024 11:02:22 GMT -5
I know it's been said that Rafaela only makes the team if he is the starting CF, but would be also be the backup SS? Pablo Reyes, today's 5'8" first baseman, must be the favorite to be the backup SS, but if Rafaela is the backup SS (the emergency backup SS, since Story will want to play as much as possible), they can have the LHH Valdez and (if you believe in him ) Dalbec as the backup infielders. Lots of moving parts.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Feb 28, 2024 11:04:06 GMT -5
Tangential to this: Pablo Reyes has been getting reps at 1B and is starting there today vs the Nationals. If McGuire (or Roberto Perez?) backs up at catcher, Reyes covers for any infield position, and Refsnyder can competently preform in any OF position, they will have the leeway to put really whoever they want in that last bench spot. Is there enough at-bats to go around for 3 OF spots between Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, O'Neill, with some sporadic Yoshida days in left and Refsnyder vs the occasional lefty? That's 6 OF options altogether, with the caveat that Rafaela can play infield as needed. Lmao I get that in a perfect world Reyes could back up the whole infield, but he's 5'8". Putting him at 1B outside of emergencies would be awful... Maybe they really do intend to play Casas nearly every day, promote Rafaela, and start Bobby in AAA? Or at least they want to see if Reyes can fake it there if they decide to do that? It sounds kind of goofy, but they've also broken camp in recent years with Christian Arroyo as the 4th outfielder I think it's just if you look at who would have to not make the team if Rafaela does it's like: -Duran if he isn't traded is definitely making it. Maybe he's more of a LF and sits more against lefties, but if he's in the org he makes it -O'Neill if healthy makes it -Abreu... probably makes it? Werner said at winter weekend they want him to get 400 at bats - so there's a path for him to be there but also not play full time -Reyes is out of options -Refsnyder is also out of options - and apparently is an important clubhouse dude. Story was saying the other day he's one of the veterans leading the team. That said, Rafaela coming up would figure to affect his playing time in some shape or form. Which leaves Bobby, who can be optioned, and wouldn't play unless Devers or Casas need a day off.
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Post by wanderingdude on Feb 28, 2024 11:18:41 GMT -5
Lmao I get that in a perfect world Reyes could back up the whole infield, but he's 5'8". Putting him at 1B outside of emergencies would be awful... Maybe they really do intend to play Casas nearly every day, promote Rafaela, and start Bobby in AAA? Or at least they want to see if Reyes can fake it there if they decide to do that? It sounds kind of goofy, but they've also broken camp in recent years with Christian Arroyo as the 4th outfielder I think it's just if you look at who would have to not make the team if Rafaela does it's like: -Duran if he isn't traded is definitely making it. Maybe he's more of a LF and sits more against lefties, but if he's in the org he makes it -O'Neill if healthy makes it -Abreu... probably makes it? Werner said at winter weekend they want him to get 400 at bats - so there's a path for him to be there but also not play full time -Reyes is out of options -Refsnyder is also out of options - and apparently is an important clubhouse dude. Story was saying the other day he's one of the veterans leading the team. That said, Rafaela coming up would figure to affect his playing time in some shape or form. Which leaves Bobby, who can be optioned, and wouldn't play unless Devers or Casas need a day off. The only other guy i think would factor into this is if they don’t think Hamilton is worth giving everyday at bats to anymore and just promote him to be a late game pinch runner. It’s not the best use of a bench spot but it also might win you a game or two late that you wouldn’t win otherwise.
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Post by hijay on Feb 28, 2024 11:40:30 GMT -5
He is eligible, BA and MLB both ranked him top 100. He's such a long shot for RoY though I doubt this is a big factor. Bigger to me is that if they think he's an MLB caliber player he is an obvious roster fit as they don't otherwise have a real centerfielder (unless Duran or Abreu took a big step forward this offseason). I was thinking the deciding factor on where Rafaela started would be if Boston added another outfielder like Duvall and how Duran looks in center this spring. Someone calculated May 16th as the cutoff for getting an extra year of control. Probably all of us here are glad the Sox delayed Pivetta in 2020 to have him this year. Still it's a difficult decision if they believe Ceddanne gives them the best chance to win now along with the RoY draft pick possibility. This point about Pivetta really makes me think that Rafaela starts the year in Worcester. The FO has more or less admitted that their focus is more on the future than winning this year. Barring an injury that forces their hand, I'm willing to bet they view an extra year of Rafaela as more valuable than having him in CF to start the season.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 28, 2024 12:03:30 GMT -5
I know it's been said that Rafaela only makes the team if he is the starting CF, but would be also be the backup SS? Pablo Reyes, today's 5'8" first baseman, must be the favorite to be the backup SS, but if Rafaela is the backup SS (the emergency backup SS, since Story will want to play as much as possible), they can have the LHH Valdez and (if you believe in him ) Dalbec as the backup infielders. Lots of moving parts. I really doubt they're going to consider dumping Reyes unless he looks awful for some reason. The other guys can be optioned, he can't, he's shown himself a capable infield option and I don't see them ditching that depth and control so early in the year.
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Post by iamnotluistiant on Feb 28, 2024 12:08:29 GMT -5
I love watching Rafaela make highlight reel catches as much as anyone BUT I also think that us Red Sox fans are looking at him a bit with rose colored glasses. I think of Chris and Ian talking about how large a jump it is now between AAA and the majors--they say, it is as large as it has ever been. You want to make sure Rafeala has all the possible experience/tools to make the jump as easily as possible. I also know that Chris/Ian have said that if he hits. 220 he could be a viable major leaguer. What would happen if he makes the club and is hitting .080 in June? Would that be good for his development?
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Post by bettsonmookie on Feb 28, 2024 13:12:54 GMT -5
A nice first inning walk. Looks like he knows the task at hand for him and is putting in the work. I am bullish on his offensive upside.
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briam
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Post by briam on Feb 28, 2024 13:16:39 GMT -5
I wonder if Rafaela’s potentialy improved approach makes them more willing to trade Duran and just let CR lockdown CF.
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Post by iamnotluistiant on Feb 28, 2024 13:23:09 GMT -5
Take all ST results with three grains of salt. Duran has shown that he can adjust and hit MLB pitching albeit he may have been incredibly lucky last year. CR has not shown that yet. Again, if he was a regular in the line-up and wound up in May was hitting .080? It is only going to take MLB pitchers a couple of weeks to exploit the weaknesses in his swing; how he adjusts is going to be the true test if he can be a legitimate MLB hitter.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Feb 28, 2024 13:25:50 GMT -5
Take all ST results with three grains of salt. Duran has shown that he can adjust and hit MLB pitching albeit he may have been incredibly lucky last year. CR has not shown that yet. Again, if he was a regular in the line-up and wound up in May was hitting .080? It is only going to take MLB pitchers a couple of weeks to exploit the weaknesses in his swing; how he adjusts is going to be the true test if he can be a legitimate MLB hitter. He doesn’t have a lot of weaknesses in his swing. His bat-to-ball skill is excellent and is part of why he has found success despite his plate discipline issues. He is not going to hit .080, especially if his approach is improved, which it already appears to be.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 28, 2024 13:25:59 GMT -5
Take all ST results with three grains of salt. Duran has shown that he can adjust and hit MLB pitching albeit he may have been incredibly lucky last year. CR has not shown that yet. Again, if he was a regular in the line-up and wound up in May was hitting .080? It is only going to take MLB pitchers a couple of weeks to exploit the weaknesses in his swing; how he adjusts is going to be the true test if he can be a legitimate MLB hitter. Did you know that you don’t have to pose a hypothetical situation in which Rafaela is hitting .080 in May every hour?
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Post by bishop on Feb 28, 2024 13:55:56 GMT -5
Pedroia's career wasn't exactly ruined by hitting .080 June 1 or whatever it was. If they have something in the approach or swing they want him to focus on sure put him in AAA, otherwise as long as he gets the AB's I'd rather see him learning how to hit MLB pitching - don't want to read too much into 3 spring training at bats but it doesn't appear his struggles at the plate in his first taste have destroyed his confidence and made him press. I'd be just as worried it's holding back his development staying in AAA, the ISO may have been a little fluky and he's simply never going to get a ton of walks but I'd like to put him where he has the best chance of bringing his 31% MLB K rate down to his 21% minor league mark one last season.
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briam
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Post by briam on Feb 28, 2024 14:15:17 GMT -5
I mean for a great example of a MLB player figuring it out after initial struggles at the plate we can go all the way back to… 2023 Jarren Duran.
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Post by brendan98 on Feb 28, 2024 15:11:49 GMT -5
With a 26 man roster, and barring any additions/subtractions from the current group of position players, the Sox will likely use a 4 man bench, if the sure things on the roster are Wong, Devers, Story, Grissom, Casas, Yoshida, Duran, O'Neill, and 1 bench spot filled by a backup catcher, that leaves Reyes, Abreu, Rafaela, Refsnyder, and Dalbec, 1 guy doesn't make the 26 man roster unless the Sox decide to go with 12 pitchers (very unlikely). The chances of leaving each off:
Reyes: I'd say less than 10% chance Reyes is out, if he is left off the roster, you risk losing him, and you need Rafaela to be a super utility guy, which he is capable of doing, but goes against what the Sox have stated they see him as (an everyday CF)
Refsnyder: I'd say less than a 10% chance Refsnyder is out, his offense vs LHP is important to this club, and like Reyes he can't be optioned.
So most likely one of Dalbec, Abreu or Rafaela gets sent down, if you don't think Rafaela or Abreu for that matter are ready for MLB than it is an easy decision, if you think they are both ready, it should be Dalbec (until he proves otherwise he is what we know him to be, a good AAAA corner infielder who can help at the MLB level against LHP but doesn't provide much more).
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briam
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Post by briam on Mar 1, 2024 13:55:40 GMT -5
Another day, another walk. Any idea if these are non-competitive walks or is he noticeably better at working counts thus far?
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