SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,553
Member is Online
|
Post by asm18 on Mar 20, 2024 11:12:06 GMT -5
I think it's Rafa unforuntately Oh god. Think this forum have have to go with CR for sanity’s sake But what will people be able to call Corey Rosier - for all those many times that we have conversations about him
|
|
mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,014
|
Post by mobaz on Mar 20, 2024 19:54:15 GMT -5
CEDDERS! That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 20, 2024 19:55:06 GMT -5
Bob
|
|
|
Post by benogliviesbrother on Mar 20, 2024 20:01:22 GMT -5
Yes?
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,123
|
Post by jimoh on Mar 21, 2024 6:10:44 GMT -5
Rafito?
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
|
Post by ericmvan on Mar 21, 2024 15:35:26 GMT -5
If they do give some time to Rafaela at 2B, it will also be interesting to see who gets the most CF time. Lot's of valid options there, just none as good as him. I know Cora had mentioned a platoon at 2B. Typically that’s a L/R thing, but depending on 1) how long Grissom is out, and 2) how comfortable Rafaela is both at 2B and switching between infield and outfield, there’s a case to be made for a de facto defensive platoon. Sox 2024 Starting Pitchers: Groundball to Fly-ball Ratio in 2023 Bello - 1.94 Houck - 1.92 Whitlock - 1.20 Pivetta - .87 Crawford - .71 No pitcher will be upset with having Rafaela’s defense in center. But the number of plays there will be different on days when it’s say Kutter Crawford out there (a heavy fly ball pitcher), as opposed to someone like Bello (where Rafaela might often get the ball in center merely after it’s squeaked by the second baseman) - and I don’t think it’s insane to speculate Rafaela would be the best non-Story defensive 2B on the roster. (With that said, we’re also talking about a 23 year old rookie here just trying to crack the team - asking him to be constantly moving around while he’s adapting to the big leagues is a big ask.) Ratios can get you in trouble. Crawford last year had a 98 where 100 = average number of balls hit into the air. Bello (starting in June), Pivetta (once he introduced his sweeper) and Houck were 85, 84, and 86 respectively. Whitlock was 101 in 2021-22. So there's likely 2 dead-average starters and a trio of GB types.
The numbers for grounders, 137 Bello, 126 Houck, 102 Whitlock, 79 Crawford, 77 Pivetta.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Mar 21, 2024 18:43:33 GMT -5
I know Cora had mentioned a platoon at 2B. Typically that’s a L/R thing, but depending on 1) how long Grissom is out, and 2) how comfortable Rafaela is both at 2B and switching between infield and outfield, there’s a case to be made for a de facto defensive platoon. Sox 2024 Starting Pitchers: Groundball to Fly-ball Ratio in 2023 Bello - 1.94 Houck - 1.92 Whitlock - 1.20 Pivetta - .87 Crawford - .71 No pitcher will be upset with having Rafaela’s defense in center. But the number of plays there will be different on days when it’s say Kutter Crawford out there (a heavy fly ball pitcher), as opposed to someone like Bello (where Rafaela might often get the ball in center merely after it’s squeaked by the second baseman) - and I don’t think it’s insane to speculate Rafaela would be the best non-Story defensive 2B on the roster. (With that said, we’re also talking about a 23 year old rookie here just trying to crack the team - asking him to be constantly moving around while he’s adapting to the big leagues is a big ask.) Ratios can get you in trouble. Crawford last year had a 98 where 100 = average number of balls hit into the air. Bello (starting in June), Pivetta (once he introduced his sweeper) and Houck were 85, 84, and 86 respectively. Whitlock was 101 in 2021-22. So there's likely 2 dead-average starters and a trio of GB types.
The numbers for grounders, 137 Bello, 126 Houck, 102 Whitlock, 79 Crawford, 77 Pivetta.
That's actually encouraging as the defense up the middle should be much better than last year, unfortunately that bar was low. By the end of the 25 season the defense should continue to improve. I still think Casas can improve his defense to at least approach average. Perhaps by that time you end up with only two weak links defensively in Devers and Yoshida, where they end up playing then will be real interesting to see play out. Casas isn't likely moving soon, and we've been saying that with Devers for a while, but I have to wonder how many more years he remains there at the hot corner to lead the league in errors at third base? I also think Yoshida is going to have even a better year than his first half last season. Perhaps after the 25 season Yoshi is traded and Devers moves to DH for the 26 season.
|
|
|
Post by ephus on Mar 24, 2024 12:27:45 GMT -5
He made the Opening Day roster!
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,951
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Apr 2, 2024 8:20:34 GMT -5
I understand that everyone is excited about Little Raffy's speed and defense but I remain skeptical about whether his bat is going to play.
It's an extreme SSS, but it builds on what we saw at the end of last year. He's at .267/.235.386 for an OPS of .666. That gives him a 70 wRC+. JBJ's career wRC+ was 81 and he had us all pulling our hair out at times.
Raffy has a .400 BABIP and a xwOBA of .169. That comes after last year's .238. His K% is 41, which is up from last year's 31 percent, and he hasn't drawn a walk yet.
They know more than me and must think it's beneficial for him to be in the The Show to live learn at this point. I preferred that they give him more AAA time and find a cheapo stopgap OF to go with Duran, O'Neill and Abreu. I haven't seen anything that changes my mind about that.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 2, 2024 8:43:29 GMT -5
I understand that everyone is excited about Little Raffy's speed and defense but I remain skeptical about whether his bat is going to play. It's an extreme SSS, but it builds on what we saw at the end of last year. He's at .267/.235.386 for an OPS of .666. That gives him a 70 wRC+. JBJ's career wRC+ was 81 and he had us all pulling our hair out at times. Raffy has a .400 BABIP and a xwOBA of .169. That comes after last year's .238. His K% is 41, which is up from last year's 31 percent, and he hasn't drawn a walk yet.They know more than me and must think it's beneficial for him to be in the The Show to live learn at this point. I preferred that they give him more AAA time and find a cheapo stopgap OF to go with Duran, O'Neill and Abreu. I haven't seen anything that changes my mind about that. K% is the quickest rate stat to stabilize, followed by BB%. I'll be interested to see where those stand after 100 PAs or so.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 2, 2024 9:03:49 GMT -5
While four games are not meaningful, the combination of a 63.3% swing rate combined with just a 65.8% contact rate (and even moreso the 72.2% contact rate in the strike zone) are, uhhh, definitely not going to calm the skeptics.
|
|
|
Post by 0ap0 on Apr 2, 2024 9:45:28 GMT -5
Always fun to have a BA > OBP
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Apr 2, 2024 10:11:59 GMT -5
In hindsight Michael Taylor at $3m would be pretty nice to have right now while Rafaela works through this in AAA.
|
|
asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,553
Member is Online
|
Post by asm18 on Apr 2, 2024 10:25:06 GMT -5
Ian Browne had reported that Grissom & Refsnyder aren't expected to be back in the picture until late April/early May. With the only other immediate realistic alternative being like, Romy Gonzalez, Rafaela has some time to get swing decisions/K rate to a saner level. The other young optionable OF in Wilyer Abreu hasn't exactly been steady so far in limited action.
|
|
|
Post by huskies15 on Apr 2, 2024 10:51:26 GMT -5
The way they setup this team, this season is about finding out what you have in guys like Rafaela/Abreu/Grissom, as well as the rotation. How those guys sink or swim "should" dictate how they act in the coming offseason.
You just hope that it doesn't ruin Rafaela's long-term development. SSS to date but the MLB numbers are troubling. Love the athleticism and he'd be a fun watch for years if he can get to competent with the bat.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 2, 2024 12:48:05 GMT -5
In hindsight Michael Taylor at $3m would be pretty nice to have right now while Rafaela works through this in AAA. Tommy Pham's still out there...
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 2, 2024 12:52:37 GMT -5
You just hope that it doesn't ruin Rafaela's long-term development. This isn't a situation where he's getting called up from Class A, or, say, trying to ramp back in six weeks after spending four years in the military. If a month or so at a level too high "ruins" his development, then his development was too easily ruin-able for him to be an impact player.
|
|
|
Post by patford on Apr 2, 2024 13:05:22 GMT -5
You just hope that it doesn't ruin Rafaela's long-term development. This isn't a situation where he's getting called up from Class A, or, say, trying to ramp back in six weeks after spending four years in the military. If a month or so at a level too high "ruins" his development, then his development was too easily ruin-able for him to be an impact player. Drove in two runs and hit a ball to the CF warning track. Nor was the only Red Sox batter to strike out in the game.
|
|
|
Post by wanderingdude on Apr 2, 2024 13:18:00 GMT -5
You just hope that it doesn't ruin Rafaela's long-term development. This isn't a situation where he's getting called up from Class A, or, say, trying to ramp back in six weeks after spending four years in the military. If a month or so at a level too high "ruins" his development, then his development was too easily ruin-able for him to be an impact player. I also think the struggles might be good for him? He was succeeding with the chase right being that high in the minors, it’s hard to get players to buy in when they see the results. Him starting at AAA, still chasing at 40 percent but getting good results wouldn’t have helped all that much imo. I’m not saying he wasn’t trying to make adjustments, but it’s harder to tell yourself to fully commit when you are maintaining good results without it.
|
|
|
Post by okin15 on Apr 2, 2024 13:29:36 GMT -5
Do wRC+ and wOBA include baserunning? Not that baserunning can matter if your OBP is bad, but I'd think it's the other place (besides defense) where he outperforms it offensive stats. That said, I agree that he needs to improve in the areas y'all are mentioning, no question.
I don't think this will hurt him long term unless the team is losing because of him. If anything he'll finally see why he needs to work on those things and how it can play at the MLB level, and if he has the opportunity to go to AAA and improve, he'll hopefully use it.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Apr 2, 2024 13:39:57 GMT -5
Do wRC+ and wOBA include baserunning? Not that baserunning can matter if your OBP is bad, but I'd think it's the other place (besides defense) where he outperforms it offensive stats. That said, I agree that he needs to improve in the areas y'all are mentioning, no question. I don't think this will hurt him long term unless the team is losing because of him. If anything he'll finally see why he needs to work on those things and how it can play at the MLB level, and if he has the opportunity to go to AAA and improve, he'll hopefully use it. Those stats do not but WAR does, and FWIW he's been a negative on the basepaths so far this year (getting caught stealing is really bad) but I expect that turns around.
|
|
|
Post by capesox on Apr 2, 2024 13:54:02 GMT -5
I think Refsnyder is supposed to come back in a month, if by then he's struggling he can go down. I'm more worried about Abreu then Rafaela honestly.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
|
Post by nomar on Apr 2, 2024 13:58:40 GMT -5
Do wRC+ and wOBA include baserunning? Not that baserunning can matter if your OBP is bad, but I'd think it's the other place (besides defense) where he outperforms it offensive stats. That said, I agree that he needs to improve in the areas y'all are mentioning, no question. I don't think this will hurt him long term unless the team is losing because of him. If anything he'll finally see why he needs to work on those things and how it can play at the MLB level, and if he has the opportunity to go to AAA and improve, he'll hopefully use it. Those stats do not but WAR does, and FWIW he's been a negative on the basepaths so far this year (getting caught stealing is really bad) but I expect that turns around. Yeah a lot of times you’ll see known base stealers have way worse Bsr than you’d think because getting caught stealing is giving away an out which is more impactful than successfully grabbing an extra base (I think it’s roughly a 1:3 ratio)
|
|
|
Post by benogliviesbrother on Apr 2, 2024 14:09:43 GMT -5
Always fun to have a BA > OBP It was fun to listen to the horror in Youk's voice yesterday when he talked about the first time he learned that sacrifice flies made the ol' OBP go DOWN.
|
|
|
Post by patford on Apr 2, 2024 16:43:40 GMT -5
At this moment Rafaela is leading the team in RBI has the same number of strikeouts as Casas. Has a higher batting average than; Casas, Story, Devers, Duran, Yoshida, and Valdez. Yet people want to give up on him after five games? The fact is his weaknesses have always been his weaknesses and as he has advanced through the minors at each level people have said, "Yes he hit in the DSL but will his approach work in the; GCL, in low A, in high A, in AA, in AAA and every time it's worked. In fact he's gotten better in most cases.
|
|
|