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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 2, 2024 20:46:17 GMT -5
At this moment Rafaela is leading the team in RBI has the same number of strikeouts as Casas. Has a higher batting average than; Casas, Story, Devers, Duran, Yoshida, and Valdez. Yet people want to give up on him after five games? The fact is his weaknesses have always been his weaknesses and as he has advanced through the minors at each level people have said, "Yes he hit in the DSL but will his approach work in the; GCL, in low A, in high A, in AA, in AAA and every time it's worked. In fact he's gotten better in most cases. These are the same people that gave up on Duran. Knowing statistics and knowing baseball are two completely different things. They see what they want to see.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 2, 2024 20:49:20 GMT -5
At this moment Rafaela is leading the team in RBI has the same number of strikeouts as Casas. Has a higher batting average than; Casas, Story, Devers, Duran, Yoshida, and Valdez. Yet people want to give up on him after five games? The fact is his weaknesses have always been his weaknesses and as he has advanced through the minors at each level people have said, "Yes he hit in the DSL but will his approach work in the; GCL, in low A, in high A, in AA, in AAA and every time it's worked. In fact he's gotten better in most cases. These are the same people that gave up on Duran. Knowing statistics and knowing baseball are two completely different things. They see what they want to see. “gave up” is doing a lot of heavy lifting in this very ironic argument.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Apr 2, 2024 21:15:56 GMT -5
At this moment Rafaela is leading the team in RBI has the same number of strikeouts as Casas. Has a higher batting average than; Casas, Story, Devers, Duran, Yoshida, and Valdez. Yet people want to give up on him after five games? The fact is his weaknesses have always been his weaknesses and as he has advanced through the minors at each level people have said, "Yes he hit in the DSL but will his approach work in the; GCL, in low A, in high A, in AA, in AAA and every time it's worked. In fact he's gotten better in most cases. No, no, no! Nobody wants to give up on him. It's because I think he has potential that I want him get the best development opportunity possible. Maybe he'll be the 2024 version of 2027 Dustin Pedroia and turn it all around for a monster year. If that happens, I'll break into a happy dance and proudly post it on Youtube. But in an admittedly SSS since late last season, his k, BB and batted ball data make it clear that there's at least reason to suspect he's not ready.
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Post by bishop on Apr 2, 2024 22:02:59 GMT -5
In the absence of seeing a timing or confidence issue I'm not really sure why sending him down is gonna help this specific issue. He hits AAA stuff just fine, MLB stuff is better than AAA stuff, if he needs to adjust to that I don't see how facing AAA pitchers helps. And it's such a moot point right now anyways, maybe if Grissom and Refsnyder are healthy and Dalbec is in AAA and Abreu and Valdez are hitting better than him I'd think about it but no one on this team outside O'Neill, Devers, and weirdly the catchers are hitting so far, Rafaela's elite defense gives us the best chance to win games.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 2, 2024 22:13:51 GMT -5
In the absence of seeing a timing or confidence issue I'm not really sure why sending him down is gonna help this specific issue. He hits AAA stuff just fine, MLB stuff is better than AAA stuff, if he needs to adjust to that I don't see how facing AAA pitchers helps. And it's such a moot point right now anyways, maybe if Grissom and Refsnyder are healthy and Dalbec is in AAA and Abreu and Valdez are hitting better than him I'd think about it but no one on this team outside O'Neill, Devers, and weirdly the catchers are hitting so far, Rafaela's elite defense gives us the best chance to win games. If he keeps having 1-3 pitch fruitless ABs then I’ll take the extra year of control and send him down for a while.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 2, 2024 22:52:53 GMT -5
Its amazing how a guy can make a concerted effort to have lengthy patient atbats in spring training and then when the real season hits he commences to hacking, usually getting disposed of in 1 or 2 pitches.
I'm not sure what he gains in AAA. He'll go down and rake and come back up and still have the same issue.
Maybe he just needs to go through things and see how continuing to hack away will adversely impact him before he really reconsiders his big league approach.
The outfield defense is certainly much better with Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF, and O'Neill in RF, although if he struggles he could be the 4th OF behind an O'Neill/Duran/Abreu alignment which wouldn't be as good defensively.
I just hope he figures things out. He can get away with some hacking but it cant be virtually every damn AB. The best version of this team should have him in CF.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 2, 2024 23:09:40 GMT -5
I have no idea whether his development is better in AAA or MLB but if he doesn’t make better decisions there’s no reason not to send him down and try working on it there while also ensuring you get an extra year of control.
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 2, 2024 23:11:59 GMT -5
Don't like the obsessing over Rafeala's at bats. We're 20 PA into his season. Let him play. The bar he needs to cross at the plate is extremely low - he's a 23 year old gold glove CF making the league minimum. If he hits last year's .241/.281/.386 you live with it.
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Post by bishop on Apr 2, 2024 23:27:58 GMT -5
In the absence of seeing a timing or confidence issue I'm not really sure why sending him down is gonna help this specific issue. He hits AAA stuff just fine, MLB stuff is better than AAA stuff, if he needs to adjust to that I don't see how facing AAA pitchers helps. And it's such a moot point right now anyways, maybe if Grissom and Refsnyder are healthy and Dalbec is in AAA and Abreu and Valdez are hitting better than him I'd think about it but no one on this team outside O'Neill, Devers, and weirdly the catchers are hitting so far, Rafaela's elite defense gives us the best chance to win games. If he keeps having 1-3 pitch fruitless ABs then I’ll take the extra year of control and send him down for a while. The extra year of control is a different argument but that ship sailed when he made it out of camp unless he's struggling and other guy's aren't when the two injured guys get back in like a month or whatever it ends up being. His AB's are ugly, but would you rather have Abreu starting vs lefties, Dalbec staying on the MLB roster/getting more AB's, and Masataka the 4th OF and seeing the field more late in games? The team has 15 K's and half the batters have a wRC 50 or less, Rafaela is one of our 9 best players right now. Plus he just worked a walk against a nasty pitcher. Our long national regional nightmare is over
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Post by pappyman99 on Apr 3, 2024 7:16:21 GMT -5
I’m actually curious to compare Rafaela’s contact rates to Betts strictly within the strike zone
I could be way off, feel like he has Betts like bat to ball within the zone with Dalbec’s chase rates outside the zone
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Post by fenwaydouble on Apr 3, 2024 7:35:02 GMT -5
I’m actually curious to compare Rafaela’s contact rates to Betts strictly within the strike zone I could be way off, feel like he has Betts like bat to ball within the zone with Dalbec’s chase rates outside the zone For his career, Betts has a zone contact right of 93.6%. Rafaela is 79.6%. That’s closer to Dalbec (74.5%) than Mookie. Rafaela’s weird quirk is that he squares it up more than you’d expect given how often he whiffs altogether. But his contact skills are not good enough for him to be successful unless he improves his swing decisions.
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Post by e on Apr 3, 2024 8:28:40 GMT -5
It's always good to remember that the expectation was for Rafaela to struggle offensively this year. Casas hit .133 with a .576 OPS in April last year, and he was known for being a polished offensive hitter.
Like many have already said, I don't see much of a benefit in him getting at bats in AAA, a league he's already dominated with his high chase rate. The adjustment period will likely take longer than Casas, and maybe even longer than Duran, but he's more than making up for it with spectacular defense.
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Post by jbuttah on Apr 3, 2024 8:44:19 GMT -5
You cannot take his glove out of the lineup. The Sox likely lose last night if Rafaela is not in CF to make that catch in the 11th.
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Post by puzzler on Apr 3, 2024 8:47:58 GMT -5
You cannot take his glove out of the lineup. The Sox likely lose last night if Rafaela is not in CF to make that catch in the 11th. Or they win earlier because a better hitter gets a hit with the bases loaded before it even gets to the 11th. I'm just not ok with the - it doesn't matter what he does at the plate because of the glove. He needs to develop; but at this point that is on him. He can't go four at bats and see 8 pitches every night. Struggles are one thing - not making an effort to improve is something else.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 3, 2024 8:55:29 GMT -5
You cannot take his glove out of the lineup. The Sox likely lose last night if Rafaela is not in CF to make that catch in the 11th. If all else is equal, another guy might not make that catch. But maybe another guy doesn't pop out with the bases loaded in the third, and then pop out again swinging at the first pitch right after Casas walks in the sixth, and then hit soft lineout to shortstop trying to pull an outside changeup with the bases loaded in the 7th. Now that Rafaela is a decent-but-flawed major leaguer rather than a blank-slate prospect, the frustrating parts of his game are going to come to the surface. And there are frustrating parts of his game. Obviously we need to be patient here, but the worries that people are expressing here aren't new, they're the concerns some people had with him as he came through the system and then again last September.
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Post by patford on Apr 3, 2024 8:58:58 GMT -5
It's always good to remember that the expectation was for Rafaela to struggle offensively this year. Casas hit .133 with a .576 OPS in April last year, and he was known for being a polished offensive hitter. Like many have already said, I don't see much of a benefit in him getting at bats in AAA, a league he's already dominated with his high chase rate. The adjustment period will likely take longer than Casas, and maybe even longer than Duran, but he's more than making up for it with spectacular defense. He's always hit and done so at every level. And always the story has been the same. "Well he hit GCL pitching but when he..." And then later, "Sure he hit well at Greenville but when he's going up against much better pitching in Portland..." So it's way too soon to be talking about sending him down to AAA. Makes me wonder if maybe the people who want him sent down live near Worcester because man that Worcester team sounds boring. It's more like an NBA G-League team than a collection of prospects.
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Post by jbuttah on Apr 3, 2024 9:05:16 GMT -5
You cannot take his glove out of the lineup. The Sox likely lose last night if Rafaela is not in CF to make that catch in the 11th. If all else is equal, another guy might not make that catch. But maybe another guy doesn't pop out with the bases loaded in the third, and then pop out again swinging at the first pitch right after Casas walks in the sixth, and then hit soft lineout to shortstop trying to pull an outside changeup with the bases loaded in the 7th. Now that Rafaela is a decent-but-flawed major leaguer rather than a blank-slate prospect, the frustrating parts of his game are going to come to the surface. And there are frustrating parts of his game. Obviously we need to be patient here, but the worries that people are expressing here aren't new, they're the concerns some people had with him as he came through the system and then again last September. Well, who's the other guy? Wilyer "I'm struggling at the plate and I let a ball roll past me in RF" Abreu?
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Post by nelledouville on Apr 3, 2024 9:13:37 GMT -5
Living and dying with each at bat is what we fans do. And when the game is over, we debate game strategy and roster strategy, the pros and cons of players, and where each is best suite to play. There are no right and wrong answers here, just opinions including this one.
I'm in the 'let him play in the big leagues' camp. Whether he learns is a question we cannot answer yet. Adversity is a great teacher, and it isn't as if this team is going to the World Series. I'm a fan of the minor leagues not for players to live in perpetuity in them but to see them advance and face new challenges. I don't care if the Mendoza line is his fate this year. Let him play - and learn.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Apr 3, 2024 9:17:38 GMT -5
People are talking past each other here. 1. It is way too soon to think about sending Rafaela down, particularly given the available alternatives. He's the best option for the Red Sox right now, and playing on the Red Sox is the best way for him to improve. 2. Rafaela's results at the plate need to be better if he is going to be a successful major leaguer. And his results at the plate are not going to get better until he makes the adjustments to his approach that people here have been talking about for years.
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Post by patford on Apr 3, 2024 9:21:36 GMT -5
Living and dying with each at bat is what we fans do. And when the game is over, we debate game strategy and roster strategy, the pros and cons of players, and where each is best suite to play. There are no right and wrong answers here, just opinions including this one. I'm in the 'let him play in the big leagues' camp. Whether he learns is a question we cannot answer yet. Adversity is a great teacher, and it isn't as if this team is going to the World Series. I'm a fan of the minor leagues not for players to live in perpetuity in them but to see them advance and face new challenges. I don't care if the Mendoza line is his fate this year. Let him play - and learn. It's what some fans do. If Rafaela is hitting .211 at mid-season I might want to see him sent down. CF is right up there with SS and catcher as positions where defense is immensely important.
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Post by ephus on Apr 3, 2024 9:22:45 GMT -5
SHORT SAMPLE SIZE WARNING
As of this morning, Fan Graphs has Rafaela as the second best CF in all on baseball with a DEF of .9 to JRod's 1.0. He is a few clicks above Kiermaier who sits at .6. We are six games in, so all of this needs to be taken with a truck load of salt.
But early indications are that Rafaela's oufield defense is, in fact, elite.
Enjoy the show.
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Post by brendan98 on Apr 3, 2024 9:24:11 GMT -5
People are talking past each other here. 1. It is way too soon to think about sending Rafaela down, particularly given the available alternatives. He's the best option for the Red Sox right now, and playing on the Red Sox is the best way for him to improve. 2. Rafaela's results at the plate need to be better if he is going to be a successful major leaguer. And his results at the plate are not going to get better until he makes the adjustments to his approach that people here have been talking about for years. I agree with this, the Sox need Rafaela until at least the time that Refsnyder returns. Casas made adjustments over the course of last season, actually becoming more aggressive, I am sure the coaching staff is watching and working with Rafaela on being more selective, and will make whatever decision is best for him and the team when Refsnyder returns.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 3, 2024 9:35:57 GMT -5
Seems to me Rafaela is doing basically what anyone who has followed him should expect. Great defense, free swinger, can get a hold of the ball when he does connect. As has been pointed out the question with him has always been can he develop a good enough of an approach at the plate that will allow him enough success as a hitter in the MLB to truly be an every day guy or is he destined to be a utility guy/defensive replacement?
His defense at the up the middle positions makes him a valuable player either way during his cheap controlled years so it wouldn't be the end of the world if this is just kind of what he is. However I do expect his bat to progress, I just don't know how much so.
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Post by bluechip on Apr 3, 2024 9:57:05 GMT -5
You cannot take his glove out of the lineup. The Sox likely lose last night if Rafaela is not in CF to make that catch in the 11th. If all else is equal, another guy might not make that catch. But maybe another guy doesn't pop out with the bases loaded in the third, and then pop out again swinging at the first pitch right after Casas walks in the sixth, and then hit soft lineout to shortstop trying to pull an outside changeup with the bases loaded in the 7th. Now that Rafaela is a decent-but-flawed major leaguer rather than a blank-slate prospect, the frustrating parts of his game are going to come to the surface. And there are frustrating parts of his game. Obviously we need to be patient here, but the worries that people are expressing here aren't new, they're the concerns some people had with him as he came through the system and then again last September. That’s fair, but really to me, moving him out of the majors causes other issues as this roster is not that deep. Take him from center, really the only other option is Duran who is mediocre at best in center. Put Duran in center, then Abreu or Yoshida is in left. Abreu also is struggling offensively, so if you put him in left you make the defense worse without helping the offense. If you put Yoshida in left you severely harm the defense, and there really isn’t another guy who is deserving of being the DH spot. When Refsynder really isn’t a full time player, so he doesn’t alleviate the issues. Frankly, having Rafaela in center. Is maximizing overall value. I suppose if you think Valdez is a full time second baseman, and Grissom can’t handle second and should be in left (as the Braves thought), then it is a different conversation.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 3, 2024 10:03:17 GMT -5
If all else is equal, another guy might not make that catch. But maybe another guy doesn't pop out with the bases loaded in the third, and then pop out again swinging at the first pitch right after Casas walks in the sixth, and then hit soft lineout to shortstop trying to pull an outside changeup with the bases loaded in the 7th. Now that Rafaela is a decent-but-flawed major leaguer rather than a blank-slate prospect, the frustrating parts of his game are going to come to the surface. And there are frustrating parts of his game. Obviously we need to be patient here, but the worries that people are expressing here aren't new, they're the concerns some people had with him as he came through the system and then again last September. That’s fair, but really to me, moving him out of the majors causes other issues as this roster is not that deep. Take him from center, really the only other option is Duran who is mediocre at best in center. Put Duran in center, then Abreu or Yoshida is in left. Abreu also is struggling offensively, so if you put him in left you make the defense worse without helping the offense. If you put Yoshida in left you severely harm the defense, and there really isn’t another guy who is deserving of being the DH spot. When Refsynder really isn’t a full time player, so he doesn’t alleviate the issues. Frankly, having Rafaela in center. Is maximizing overall value. I suppose if you think Valdez is a full time second baseman, and Grissom can’t handle second and should be in left (as the Braves thought), then it is a different conversation. The Braves didn't think Grissom couldn't handle 2nd, they just happen to have Albies locked up and going nowhere and he's arguably the best 2nd baseman in the league. Certainly he is one of them anyway so Grissom if he was going to get consistent PT with the Braves it was going to have to be at a position other than 2nd.
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