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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 3, 2024 10:04:49 GMT -5
That’s fair, but really to me, moving him out of the majors causes other issues as this roster is not that deep. Take him from center, really the only other option is Duran who is mediocre at best in center. Put Duran in center, then Abreu or Yoshida is in left. Abreu also is struggling offensively, so if you put him in left you make the defense worse without helping the offense. If you put Yoshida in left you severely harm the defense, and there really isn’t another guy who is deserving of being the DH spot. When Refsynder really isn’t a full time player, so he doesn’t alleviate the issues. Frankly, having Rafaela in center. Is maximizing overall value. I suppose if you think Valdez is a full time second baseman, and Grissom can’t handle second and should be in left (as the Braves thought), then it is a different conversation. The Braves didn't think Grissom couldn't handle 2nd, they just happen to have Albies locked up and going nowhere and he's arguably the best 2nd baseman in the league. Certainly he is one of them anyway so Grissom if he was going to get consistent PT with the Braves it was going to have to be at a position other than 2nd. Yeah if the Braves actually thought Grissom should be a left fielder than they would’ve just made him one lol
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Post by patford on Apr 3, 2024 10:11:30 GMT -5
Other guys might make "a catch" except it isn't usually the catch. What they don't do is have a chance to make the catch because they don't get to the ball. Rafaela has that Bradley, Kiermaier type ability to read balls off the bat and get to them. As seen with Duran speed can not compensate for that. I'd bet every "great catch" Duran makes is on balls Bradley, Kiermaier and Rafaela get to easily and does not even look like a great catch. The great catches they make someone like Duran is chasing to the wall.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Apr 3, 2024 10:22:25 GMT -5
It's always good to remember that the expectation was for Rafaela to struggle offensively this year. Casas hit .133 with a .576 OPS in April last year, and he was known for being a polished offensive hitter. Like many have already said, I don't see much of a benefit in him getting at bats in AAA, a league he's already dominated with his high chase rate. The adjustment period will likely take longer than Casas, and maybe even longer than Duran, but he's more than making up for it with spectacular defense. He's always hit and done so at every level. And always the story has been the same. "Well he hit GCL pitching but when he..." And then later, "Sure he hit well at Greenville but when he's going up against much better pitching in Portland..." So it's way too soon to be talking about sending him down to AAA. Makes me wonder if maybe the people who want him sent down live near Worcester because man that Worcester team sounds boring. It's more like an NBA G-League team than a collection of prospects. Well, I don't live near Worcester and haven't been to Polar Park yet. I'd like to make it this year but, yeah, looking at the roster makes me think I might be better off making a weekend trip to Portland.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Apr 3, 2024 10:25:36 GMT -5
For anyone who is wanting him to get sent down, just give the kid a chance. The season just started. I always try to be patient with prospects knowing that Dustin Pedroia was not very good for a couple months in 2007. Then the laser show started and he’s the ROY.
Not saying that’ll happen with Rafaela, but it’s got a non-zero chance.
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Post by wanderingdude on Apr 3, 2024 11:38:57 GMT -5
That’s fair, but really to me, moving him out of the majors causes other issues as this roster is not that deep. Take him from center, really the only other option is Duran who is mediocre at best in center. Put Duran in center, then Abreu or Yoshida is in left. Abreu also is struggling offensively, so if you put him in left you make the defense worse without helping the offense. If you put Yoshida in left you severely harm the defense, and there really isn’t another guy who is deserving of being the DH spot. When Refsynder really isn’t a full time player, so he doesn’t alleviate the issues. Frankly, having Rafaela in center. Is maximizing overall value. I suppose if you think Valdez is a full time second baseman, and Grissom can’t handle second and should be in left (as the Braves thought), then it is a different conversation. The Braves didn't think Grissom couldn't handle 2nd, they just happen to have Albies locked up and going nowhere and he's arguably the best 2nd baseman in the league. Certainly he is one of them anyway so Grissom if he was going to get consistent PT with the Braves it was going to have to be at a position other than 2nd. If the braves were willing to try Grissom at short in major league games i’m sure they thought he could move over to second. I don’t see any reason to believe he couldn’t be at least average over there after an adjustment period.
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Post by bishop on Apr 3, 2024 11:41:58 GMT -5
You cannot take his glove out of the lineup. The Sox likely lose last night if Rafaela is not in CF to make that catch in the 11th. Or they win earlier because a better hitter gets a hit with the bases loaded before it even gets to the 11th. I'm just not ok with the - it doesn't matter what he does at the plate because of the glove. He needs to develop; but at this point that is on him. He can't go four at bats and see 8 pitches every night. Struggles are one thing - not making an effort to improve is something else. 14 pitches in 5 at bats isn't ideal either but idk the need to cherry pick numbers. Not saying a light bulb turned on and everything is great after one good AB but it was a promising one. Last year 4 players (Javy Baez, Ezequiel Tovar, Eddie Rosario, Salvador Perez) had O-Swing %'s over 40, currently Cedanne is at 48.7%. It's not good enough, he needs to make better swing decisions, but there are also 17 other guys over 40 this early, 6 over Raffy2, including Giancarlo Stanton (my god his metrics are dreadful) and the top CF prospect in baseball in Jackson Chourio. I assume most of those will have lower percentages as the sample size gets bigger, we'll see where Rafaela (and Abreu) is when Refsnyder's return is imminent, but at this point his glove alone is making him more valuable than Abreu and next man up is who Romy Gonzalez? (Hint: you really won't like his swing decisions either haha). He gets the month minimum, idk if that last at bat was a promising sign or an aberration, but I'm not seeing a guy physically overmatched up there just someone who needs to get better and hopefully does with more reps.
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Post by puzzler on Apr 3, 2024 12:27:52 GMT -5
Or they win earlier because a better hitter gets a hit with the bases loaded before it even gets to the 11th. I'm just not ok with the - it doesn't matter what he does at the plate because of the glove. He needs to develop; but at this point that is on him. He can't go four at bats and see 8 pitches every night. Struggles are one thing - not making an effort to improve is something else. 14 pitches in 5 at bats isn't ideal either but idk the need to cherry pick numbers. Not saying a light bulb turned on and everything is great after one good AB but it was a promising one. Last year 4 players (Javy Baez, Ezequiel Tovar, Eddie Rosario, Salvador Perez) had O-Swing %'s over 40, currently Cedanne is at 48.7%. It's not good enough, he needs to make better swing decisions, but there are also 17 other guys over 40 this early, 6 over Raffy2, including Giancarlo Stanton (my god his metrics are dreadful) and the top CF prospect in baseball in Jackson Chourio. I assume most of those will have lower percentages as the sample size gets bigger, we'll see where Rafaela (and Abreu) is when Refsnyder's return is imminent, but at this point his glove alone is making him more valuable than Abreu and next man up is who Romy Gonzalez? (Hint: you really won't like his swing decisions either haha). He gets the month minimum, idk if that last at bat was a promising sign or an aberration, but I'm not seeing a guy physically overmatched up there just someone who needs to get better and hopefully does with more reps. Hey, I'm not trying to send him down - I'm just saying if he doesn't improve at the dish, that's a good reason to send him down. As opposed to accepting any outcome with the bat because well his glove is so good.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 3, 2024 12:34:57 GMT -5
The Braves didn't think Grissom couldn't handle 2nd, they just happen to have Albies locked up and going nowhere and he's arguably the best 2nd baseman in the league. Certainly he is one of them anyway so Grissom if he was going to get consistent PT with the Braves it was going to have to be at a position other than 2nd. Yeah if the Braves actually thought Grissom should be a left fielder than they would’ve just made him one lol Yeah I think it was Clegg who pointed out on our podcast that the "Grissom is going to platoon in left with Kelenic" thing never really made sense.
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Post by ephus on May 6, 2024 9:42:21 GMT -5
Don't look now, but our guy is over the Mendoza line, has little 4-game hitting streak going and the next stops on the path to offesive respectability will be short trips to .205. .210 and .215 (for all who still believe in batting average as a relevant statistic).
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Post by scottysmalls on May 6, 2024 9:51:31 GMT -5
Don't look now, but our guy is over the Mendoza line, has little 4-game hitting streak going and the next stops on the path to offesive respectability will be short trips to .205. .210 and .215 (for all who still believe in batting average as a relevant statistic). Since April 24 he's been hitting much better, running basically an average xwOBA and a 114 wRC+ since then (although it's only a ten game sample and he hasn't walked once during it). Oddly he's rated poorly as a baserunner and a fielder in that time, otherwise we would have seen his WAR improve much more substantially.
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Post by rickasadoorian on May 6, 2024 18:33:19 GMT -5
His BAbip during that stretch is .345. Up to .250 for the year.
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Post by carmenfanzone on May 6, 2024 20:43:04 GMT -5
Don't look now, but our guy is over the Mendoza line, has little 4-game hitting streak going and the next stops on the path to offesive respectability will be short trips to .205. .210 and .215 (for all who still believe in batting average as a relevant statistic). Since April 24 he's been hitting much better, running basically an average xwOBA and a 114 wRC+ since then (although it's only a ten game sample and he hasn't walked once during it). Oddly he's rated poorly as a baserunner and a fielder in that time, otherwise we would have seen his WAR improve much more substantially. And despite his low start he still leads the team in rbi's. So at least he has been contributing a little with the bat. Regarding his base running, given that he is only 4 out of 7 in steal attempts, I wish they would tell him not to attempt any more steals. Not only is his success rate not good so far this year, we can't afford to get him hurt trying to steal snd have Hamilton back out there at short.
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Post by incandenza on May 8, 2024 13:37:25 GMT -5
It's very weird that all of the following are true:
- Rafaela has a wRC+ of 63, 14th worst in the majors out of 117 qualified hitters - Rafaela has a WPA of -1.19, 6th worst in the majors - Rafaela has a Clutch rating of -0.56, 13th worst in the majors
- Rafaela leads the Red Sox with 20 RBI
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Post by James Dunne on May 8, 2024 14:07:42 GMT -5
It's very weird that all of the following are true: - Rafaela has a wRC+ of 63, 14th worst in the majors out of 117 qualified hitters - Rafaela has a WPA of -1.19, 6th worst in the majors - Rafaela has a Clutch rating of -0.56, 13th worst in the majors
- Rafaela leads the Red Sox with 20 RBI
A large chunk of those RBI came in the blowout win, which would not have affected his clutch or WPA numbers.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on May 8, 2024 14:46:58 GMT -5
It's very weird that all of the following are true: - Rafaela has a wRC+ of 63, 14th worst in the majors out of 117 qualified hitters - Rafaela has a WPA of -1.19, 6th worst in the majors - Rafaela has a Clutch rating of -0.56, 13th worst in the majors
- Rafaela leads the Red Sox with 20 RBI
A large chunk of those RBI came in the blowout win, which would not have affected his clutch or WPA numbers. And the fact that he leads in RBI is more of an indictment of the heart of the order and their struggles with RISP
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Post by julyanmorley on May 8, 2024 14:56:34 GMT -5
Rafaela is now at -4 OAA in 183 innings at SS including last year, something to keep an eye on.
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Post by seamus on May 8, 2024 16:10:28 GMT -5
Rafaela is now at -4 OAA in 183 innings at SS including last year, something to keep an eye on. Statcast is giving him credit for 63 attempts at SS across those innings, which is still a small enough sample that it doesn't take many random boots to warp things. There's also precious few opportunities to impress given that most plays are "sure things." Indeed, you look at the breakdown, essentially all of the "negatives" are coming from 4 misplays on balls with an expected success rate of >95%. Given his reputation over the last few years and whatever the eye test is worth, I'm willing to chalk that up to bad luck/rookie mistakes. I'd be surprised if he didn't climb back into the positives by the end of the year if he remains the everyday shortstop.
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Post by keninten on May 8, 2024 16:32:32 GMT -5
Can`t wait for his growing pains to end.
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Post by incandenza on May 8, 2024 16:49:26 GMT -5
Rafaela is now at -4 OAA in 183 innings at SS including last year, something to keep an eye on. Statcast is giving him credit for 63 attempts at SS across those innings, which is still a small enough sample that it doesn't take many random boots to warp things. There's also precious few opportunities to impress given that most plays are "sure things." Indeed, you look at the breakdown, essentially all of the "negatives" are coming from 4 misplays on balls with an expected success rate of >95%. Given his reputation over the last few years and whatever the eye test is worth, I'm willing to chalk that up to bad luck/rookie mistakes. I'd be surprised if he didn't climb back into the positives by the end of the year if he remains the everyday shortstop. He's made some of those rookie mistakes in CF too, like the time he was too casual about the transfer and just let the ball fall out of his glove on a ~100% out play. The upshot is that he's actually been a below-average fielder in his career by all of OAA, DRS, and UZR.
Which is kinda funny, given his reputation and the unbridled confidence we all have in his defense. Or, well, I'd consider my confidence in his SS defense to be somewhat bridled. But hopeful!
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on May 8, 2024 17:18:42 GMT -5
Statcast is giving him credit for 63 attempts at SS across those innings, which is still a small enough sample that it doesn't take many random boots to warp things. There's also precious few opportunities to impress given that most plays are "sure things." Indeed, you look at the breakdown, essentially all of the "negatives" are coming from 4 misplays on balls with an expected success rate of >95%. Given his reputation over the last few years and whatever the eye test is worth, I'm willing to chalk that up to bad luck/rookie mistakes. I'd be surprised if he didn't climb back into the positives by the end of the year if he remains the everyday shortstop. He's made some of those rookie mistakes in CF too, like the time he was too casual about the transfer and just let the ball fall out of his glove on a ~100% out play. The upshot is that he's actually been a below-average fielder in his career by all of OAA, DRS, and UZR.
Which is kinda funny, given his reputation and the unbridled confidence we all have in his defense. Or, well, I'd consider my confidence in his SS defense to be somewhat bridled. But hopeful!
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gerry
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Post by gerry on May 9, 2024 23:28:44 GMT -5
Off the top of my head remembering Boggs, Ellsbury, Duran who suddenly blossomed.
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Post by James Dunne on May 10, 2024 8:19:15 GMT -5
Statcast is giving him credit for 63 attempts at SS across those innings, which is still a small enough sample that it doesn't take many random boots to warp things. There's also precious few opportunities to impress given that most plays are "sure things." Indeed, you look at the breakdown, essentially all of the "negatives" are coming from 4 misplays on balls with an expected success rate of >95%. Given his reputation over the last few years and whatever the eye test is worth, I'm willing to chalk that up to bad luck/rookie mistakes. I'd be surprised if he didn't climb back into the positives by the end of the year if he remains the everyday shortstop. He's made some of those rookie mistakes in CF too, like the time he was too casual about the transfer and just let the ball fall out of his glove on a ~100% out play. The upshot is that he's actually been a below-average fielder in his career by all of OAA, DRS, and UZR. Which is kinda funny, given his reputation and the unbridled confidence we all have in his defense. Or, well, I'd consider my confidence in his SS defense to be somewhat bridled. But hopeful!
One weird thing is that there is sort of an expectation that players will struggle offensively when they reach the majors, but that their defense should be fully polished and formed. People seemed to think that Rafaela was going to come in and be in the discussion for the best defensive player in the majors on day one. and that wasn't really fair to him. I guess I've been something of a skeptic of the bat, but I'm not particularly concerned that the center field defense will be anything less than great. I'd always considered him more of a good shortstop than a great one, and I guess I'm one of the very few people who thinks Mayer is a more natural defender than Rafaela there. But same idea - if Rafaela ends up a shortstop long term, he'll get a feel for the speed of the major league game and his defensive production will catch up with the tools.
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Post by ephus on May 11, 2024 10:21:22 GMT -5
Don't look now, but our guy is over the Mendoza line, has little 4-game hitting streak going and the next stops on the path to offesive respectability will be short trips to .205. .210 and .215 (for all who still believe in batting average as a relevant statistic). Last night’s infield single brought the hitting streak to eight games and Rafaela ended the night at .215! Next stop to .235 is .220! The kid is trending in the right direction and baseball is a funny game, so as he gets more comfortable offensively, i’d expect the defense to improve as well.
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Post by incandenza on May 17, 2024 11:26:15 GMT -5
The general perception is that Rafaela "stabilized the defense" when he took over at SS, but actually he's been worse than Kiké at that position by OAA and DRS. But contemporaneously, the outfield defense has been excellent, Dalbec/Cooper have been great at 1B, Devers has had a solid run at 3B, and Grissom has looked good at 2B. SS continues to be the weak link.
For those who, say, are in the business of evaluating prospects, or just saw Rafaela a lot in the minors: what's going on? He looks really athletic and capable of making great plays, so I wonder if the defensive reputation is based on that despite a tendency to make a lot of mistakes, with the assumption that he'll improve over time; or is it that he's been more mistake-prone since arriving in the big leagues?
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gerry
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Post by gerry on May 17, 2024 12:07:18 GMT -5
Or maybe, at this stage in his development, (he was supposed to need additional time at AAA before the season began) he just needs positional stability and consistency rather than being used in a utility role. Just a thought.
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