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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by bojacksoxfan on May 17, 2024 12:24:34 GMT -5
The general perception is that Rafaela "stabilized the defense" when he took over at SS, but actually he's been worse than Kiké at that position by OAA and DRS. But contemporaneously, the outfield defense has been excellent, Dalbec/Cooper have been great at 1B, Devers has had a solid run at 3B, and Grissom has looked good at 2B. SS continues to be the weak link. For those who, say, are in the business of evaluating prospects, or just saw Rafaela a lot in the minors: what's going on? He looks really athletic and capable of making great plays, so I wonder if the defensive reputation is based on that despite a tendency to make a lot of mistakes, with the assumption that he'll improve over time; or is it that he's been more mistake-prone since arriving in the big leagues? When he dropped that fly ball early in the year (Ana maybe?) my first thought was - I wonder if they moved him out of the infield partially because he can be a bit lackadaisical on details. That's something that will kill you on the infield, but in the OF you've got a chance to out run those kinds of mistakes. He's obviously very gifted athletically and with a lot of reps at SS he might be able to fine tune that aspect of his game, but the bigger the sample has gotten the more likely this is who is, at least right now. It might also explain why they were seemingly slow to look at him at 2B and as the "obvious" SS solution post Story injury. Bizarrely, he's a gifted defensive player who is hurting the team defensively.
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Post by soxinsf on May 17, 2024 13:01:20 GMT -5
I wonder if the “bizarre” contradiction in his fielding relates to a bit of casualness. As in, “I’ve got this so I can just relax”. His drop on CF was easy to forgive when measured against what else he can do, but his recent throwing error falls in the lazy category. There is no “lazy, I got this” on any play until it’s over.
He is not the SS in the long run. I’m hoping for a little more consistency going forward—and you can bet that the coaching staff is working on it.
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pd
Veteran
Posts: 325
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Post by pd on May 17, 2024 14:11:33 GMT -5
The general perception is that Rafaela "stabilized the defense" when he took over at SS, but actually he's been worse than Kiké at that position by OAA and DRS. But contemporaneously, the outfield defense has been excellent, Dalbec/Cooper have been great at 1B, Devers has had a solid run at 3B, and Grissom has looked good at 2B. SS continues to be the weak link. For those who, say, are in the business of evaluating prospects, or just saw Rafaela a lot in the minors: what's going on? He looks really athletic and capable of making great plays, so I wonder if the defensive reputation is based on that despite a tendency to make a lot of mistakes, with the assumption that he'll improve over time; or is it that he's been more mistake-prone since arriving in the big leagues? Defensive stats are especially bad in small sample sizes?
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Post by James Dunne on May 17, 2024 14:12:59 GMT -5
I think he's just a much better center fielder than he is a shortstop. Having an excellent center fielder who can also be your backup shortstop is very useful, even if it means his defense is less excellent. I'm less concerned about his defensive stats than I am his on-base percentage. The speed of the major league game is just different and it takes an adjustment for a lot of guys.
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Post by scottysmalls on May 17, 2024 14:33:25 GMT -5
The general perception is that Rafaela "stabilized the defense" when he took over at SS, but actually he's been worse than Kiké at that position by OAA and DRS. But contemporaneously, the outfield defense has been excellent, Dalbec/Cooper have been great at 1B, Devers has had a solid run at 3B, and Grissom has looked good at 2B. SS continues to be the weak link. For those who, say, are in the business of evaluating prospects, or just saw Rafaela a lot in the minors: what's going on? He looks really athletic and capable of making great plays, so I wonder if the defensive reputation is based on that despite a tendency to make a lot of mistakes, with the assumption that he'll improve over time; or is it that he's been more mistake-prone since arriving in the big leagues? Defensive stats are especially bad in small sample sizes? I dunno it matches the eye test to me. He’s making a lot of bad plays. He still seems capable of being better, but I don’t think the defensive stats are wrong, I think he has been bad
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Post by incandenza on May 17, 2024 14:41:35 GMT -5
The general perception is that Rafaela "stabilized the defense" when he took over at SS, but actually he's been worse than Kiké at that position by OAA and DRS. But contemporaneously, the outfield defense has been excellent, Dalbec/Cooper have been great at 1B, Devers has had a solid run at 3B, and Grissom has looked good at 2B. SS continues to be the weak link. For those who, say, are in the business of evaluating prospects, or just saw Rafaela a lot in the minors: what's going on? He looks really athletic and capable of making great plays, so I wonder if the defensive reputation is based on that despite a tendency to make a lot of mistakes, with the assumption that he'll improve over time; or is it that he's been more mistake-prone since arriving in the big leagues? Defensive stats are especially bad in small sample sizes? I've watched the games. He's looked very mistake-prone and the defensive stats all confirm that, so I don't think it's a case of the stats being bad. There's a question of how predictive they might be. But that's basically what I'm asking here - is the performance so far typical of what he was as a prospect or has he been worse than that since coming to Boston?
(Also if old-timey stats are your jam: he's tied for 4th most errors among outfielders and 8th most errors among shortstops in the majors despite having way fewer innings at both positions than most starters.)
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Post by ematz1423 on May 17, 2024 14:50:32 GMT -5
I'm just going off memory and posts from around here and also James post from above that he was always said to be a much better CF than he is a SS. I don't think we should be all that shocked that by both the eye test and defensive #s his defense at SS has not been particularly good. I don't think it helped him one bit that going into the year in ST the plan was that he's going to open as the starting CF and that would be his role. Then he got ping ponged to SS due to necessity, add on top of that his struggles at the plate so far. As a young player that must be a lot to handle mentally which is going to compound his struggles.
I would expect as he becomes more comfortable his struggles will lessen and he can be an above average SS with his natural talent and ability.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 17, 2024 15:13:55 GMT -5
I would just forget about playing Rafaela on the dirt. He's been awful, worse than Hamilton. There's no playing time there for him in the future. Let him focus on playing the outfield for the rest of his career.
Romy has played great this year and has some very intriguing under the hood metrics. Get him in the lineup every day at SS and put Dominic Smith's ass on the bench.
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Post by James Dunne on May 17, 2024 15:18:24 GMT -5
I would just forget about playing Rafaela on the dirt. He's been awful, worse than Hamilton. There's no playing time there for him in the future. Let him focus on playing the outfield for the rest of his career. One weird thing is that there is sort of an expectation that players will struggle offensively when they reach the majors, but that their defense should be fully polished and formed. People seemed to think that Rafaela was going to come in and be in the discussion for the best defensive player in the majors on day one. and that wasn't really fair to him. I guess I've been something of a skeptic of the bat, but I'm not particularly concerned that the center field defense will be anything less than great. I'd always considered him more of a good shortstop than a great one, and I guess I'm one of the very few people who thinks Mayer is a more natural defender than Rafaela there. But same idea - if Rafaela ends up a shortstop long term, he'll get a feel for the speed of the major league game and his defensive production will catch up with the tools. Never playing Rafaela in the infield again after a couple of bad weeks there would be akin to having permanently banished Jarren Duran from centerfield, not letting Xander Bogaerts play shortstop on the 2015-2022 Red Sox, and sending Dustin Pedroia and Triston Casas down the minors after the first month of their careers because it was clear that they just couldn't hit big league pitching. Just a totally short-sighted, self-defeating approach to team building. A level of impatience that makes me really wonder why you would frequent a prospect-focused site.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 17, 2024 15:20:29 GMT -5
I would just forget about playing Rafaela on the dirt. He's been awful, worse than Hamilton. There's no playing time there for him in the future. Let him focus on playing the outfield for the rest of his career. One weird thing is that there is sort of an expectation that players will struggle offensively when they reach the majors, but that their defense should be fully polished and formed. People seemed to think that Rafaela was going to come in and be in the discussion for the best defensive player in the majors on day one. and that wasn't really fair to him. I guess I've been something of a skeptic of the bat, but I'm not particularly concerned that the center field defense will be anything less than great. I'd always considered him more of a good shortstop than a great one, and I guess I'm one of the very few people who thinks Mayer is a more natural defender than Rafaela there. But same idea - if Rafaela ends up a shortstop long term, he'll get a feel for the speed of the major league game and his defensive production will catch up with the tools. Never playing Rafaela in the infield again after a couple of bad weeks there would be akin to having permanently banished Jarren Duran from centerfield, not letting Xander Bogaerts play shortstop on the 2015-2022 Red Sox, and sending Dustin Pedroia and Triston Casas down the minors after the first month of their careers. Just a totally short-sighted, self-defeating approach to team building. A level of impatience that makes me really wonder why you would frequent a prospect-focused site. Get a grip dude
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Post by incandenza on May 17, 2024 15:28:22 GMT -5
I would just forget about playing Rafaela on the dirt. He's been awful, worse than Hamilton. There's no playing time there for him in the future. Let him focus on playing the outfield for the rest of his career. Romy has played great this year and has some very intriguing under the hood metrics. Get him in the lineup every day at SS and put Dominic Smith's ass on the bench. If you'd give up on his infield defense based on what we've seen so far, what would you say about his outfield defense? He's got middling numbers at CF and the dynamic there looks the same to me as at SS (albeit at a higher baseline): great athleticism and the occasional excellent play which gets squandered by too many glaring mistakes.
It's a pretty weird situation, even assuming his defense lives up to reputation; if Duran and Abreu are starting-caliber players (and Duran himself an inexplicably excellent centerfielder) with Anthony on the way and Story/Mayer/Grissom in the middle infield, it's tough to say what Rafaela's long-term role on the team will be. Yet they went ahead and extended him anyway. Did they commit $50 million for him to be a glove-first fourth outfielder?
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Post by ematz1423 on May 17, 2024 15:37:34 GMT -5
I would just forget about playing Rafaela on the dirt. He's been awful, worse than Hamilton. There's no playing time there for him in the future. Let him focus on playing the outfield for the rest of his career. Romy has played great this year and has some very intriguing under the hood metrics. Get him in the lineup every day at SS and put Dominic Smith's ass on the bench. If you'd give up on his infield defense based on what we've seen so far, what would you say about his outfield defense? He's got middling numbers at CF and the dynamic there looks the same to me as at SS (albeit at a higher baseline): great athleticism and the occasional excellent play which gets squandered by too many glaring mistakes.
It's a pretty weird situation, even assuming his defense lives up to reputation; if Duran and Abreu are starting-caliber players (and Duran himself an inexplicably excellent centerfielder) with Anthony on the way and Story/Mayer/Grissom in the middle infield, it's tough to say what Rafaela's long-term role on the team will be. Yet they went ahead and extended him anyway. Did they commit $50 million for him to be a glove-first fourth outfielder?
It'll all work itself out I am sure and probably just jumping the gun but I am wondering this same exact thing, what is Rafaela's future if Duran's defensive improvements are sustainable? For the next couple years Rafaela's best role might just be a utility guy. Does make me question the need for that extension even more so than I did when it was signed.
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Post by greatscottcooper on May 17, 2024 17:02:20 GMT -5
If Abreu and Duran are both above average regulars for a while then with Rafaela here and Anthony on the way you got yourself a trade chip. Who that is? When and for whom? I don’t ask me, but it’s a good problem to have than 2/3 or all those guys looking like busts.
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Post by itinerantherb on May 17, 2024 17:34:47 GMT -5
If all those things happen, Rafaela becomes a probably overpaid super-utility player. Because of his defensive versatility, though, he could still get something like 400 PAs/year. If that's how it turns out--and, of course, it probably won't--the outfield will consist of three cost-controlled, above-average regulars plus an overpaid super-utility player who's still making *only* $6M/year. I can live with that, even though it probably means that the extension was a mistake.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,546
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Post by asm18 on May 17, 2024 17:58:08 GMT -5
If all those things happen, Rafaela becomes a probably overpaid super-utility player. Because of his defensive versatility, though, he could still get something like 400 PAs/year. If that's how it turns out--and, of course, it probably won't--the outfield will consist of three cost-controlled, above-average regulars plus an overpaid super-utility player who's still making *only* $6M/year. I can live with that, even though it probably means that the extension was a mistake. Yeah I think a world where Anthony, Duran, and Abreu are all great is a win for the Sox almost no matter what… I guess my only concern (and this is all in the future) is if the Ceddanne extension gets him a leg up over any of those guys in terms of playing time or position. “Well we can’t sit him - we gave him 50 million dollars!” But it’s probably too soon to worry about that (unless you feel he still needs more seasoning in Triple A - which certainly isn’t happening now haha)
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Post by wanderingdude on May 18, 2024 11:47:01 GMT -5
If Abreu and Duran are both above average regulars for a while then with Rafaela here and Anthony on the way you got yourself a trade chip. Who that is? When and for whom? I don’t ask me, but it’s a good problem to have than 2/3 or all those guys looking like busts. I generally prefer having good hitters instead of worrying about left/right splits, but ceddanne has a better chance of sticking around purely based on him being righty. If things pan out like we all hope our top 7 hitters would all be lefty, which would be wild.
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Post by rickasadoorian on May 18, 2024 12:34:53 GMT -5
The general perception is that Rafaela "stabilized the defense" when he took over at SS, but actually he's been worse than Kiké at that position by OAA and DRS. But contemporaneously, the outfield defense has been excellent, Dalbec/Cooper have been great at 1B, Devers has had a solid run at 3B, and Grissom has looked good at 2B. SS continues to be the weak link. For those who, say, are in the business of evaluating prospects, or just saw Rafaela a lot in the minors: what's going on? He looks really athletic and capable of making great plays, so I wonder if the defensive reputation is based on that despite a tendency to make a lot of mistakes, with the assumption that he'll improve over time; or is it that he's been more mistake-prone since arriving in the big leagues? Defensive stats are especially bad in small sample sizes? Yeah. Although it's also possible scouts were overhyping/over projecting Rafaela's defense. Jacoby Ellsbury was supposed to be the best defensive CF to ever play the game if you believe some of the earlier scouting reports that came out on him (and minor league defensive stats, which were in their infancy). Will Middlebrooks was a perennial GG candidate. Xander Bogaerts was going to have to move off of SS. It's very possible Rafaela doesn't have generational defense and might just be merely good/great.
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Post by jbuttah on May 18, 2024 13:59:44 GMT -5
I think his defensive rep was as a CF. That he was a potential GG candidate there. At SS he was suppose to be good but not great.
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Post by soxinsf on May 18, 2024 14:27:30 GMT -5
If Abreu and Duran are both above average regulars for a while then with Rafaela here and Anthony on the way you got yourself a trade chip. Who that is? When and for whom? I don’t ask me, but it’s a good problem to have than 2/3 or all those guys looking like busts. Sounds like a good problem to have—too many good players. Especially when two of them are rookies and one is hitting under .250in AA.
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Post by Papi's Gift on May 18, 2024 18:39:41 GMT -5
7h665y ft hygg the yh in hg in gjhhgv
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Post by incandenza on Jun 1, 2024 10:45:50 GMT -5
WAR-wise, Rafaela bottomed out at -0.6 on 4/26. He's at +0.5 since April 27th in 110 PAs, so about a 2.7 WAR/600 pace. That's with a 108 wRC+.
As a CFer he's hit .200/.241/.340, a 56 wRC+ with +3 OAA and 0.1 WAR. As a SS he's hit .244/.258/.477, a 98 wRC+ with -5 OAA and 0.0 WAR.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 1, 2024 11:08:48 GMT -5
WAR-wise, Rafaela bottomed out at -0.6 on 4/26. He's at +0.5 since April 27th in 110 PAs, so about a 2.7 WAR/600 pace. That's with a 108 wRC+.
As a CFer he's hit .200/.241/.340, a 56 wRC+ with +3 OAA and 0.1 WAR. As a SS he's hit .244/.258/.477, a 98 wRC+ with -5 OAA and 0.0 WAR.
For anyone else wondering how he is at -0.1 overall with these numbers, he has -0.1 at 2B and 0.0 at short and the rest of the gap are the decimal points we aren't shown
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Post by GyIantosca on Jun 1, 2024 11:43:03 GMT -5
I think this team needs an excellent bench too. Having versatile players the team needs them also they are learning a lesson with injuries . The depth off the bench huge.
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Post by nonothing on Jun 1, 2024 17:27:11 GMT -5
WAR-wise, Rafaela bottomed out at -0.6 on 4/26. He's at +0.5 since April 27th in 110 PAs, so about a 2.7 WAR/600 pace. That's with a 108 wRC+.
As a CFer he's hit .200/.241/.340, a 56 wRC+ with +3 OAA and 0.1 WAR. As a SS he's hit .244/.258/.477, a 98 wRC+ with -5 OAA and 0.0 WAR.
His approach in spring training was very improved over last year. In the regular season, it has been awful. He really should be sent down to work on his plate approach and told that he has to stop trying to pull pitches on the outer third of the plate and even off the plate outside. He wants to show he can hit bombs. Congrats - he can for sure. But to play in MLB, he needs to listen to Jim Rice and hit the pitch on the outer half the other way and be compact and to the ball with two strikes. These are things that should have gone away in AA. His defense in CF has the potential to be great. But if he keeps the approach he has, he will have a career like Miles Straw. He is capable of way more. I think they probably avoided sending him down due to terrible SS D by others earlier in year. But with Romy and Hamilton doing an ok job, I would send him down hen O'Neill is healthy. They can play O'Neill, Duran, Abreu w/ Ref at 4th spot and let the kid go back and hone his approach. It would help his development, as it did for Duran to go down and find a MLB compatible approach that works for him and the team. And I love the glove and really hope he is in CF for us for the next decade. But he needs a timeout for a bit to get back to what led to him making the team out of camp.
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Post by brendan98 on Jun 1, 2024 17:45:46 GMT -5
WAR-wise, Rafaela bottomed out at -0.6 on 4/26. He's at +0.5 since April 27th in 110 PAs, so about a 2.7 WAR/600 pace. That's with a 108 wRC+. As a CFer he's hit .200/.241/.340, a 56 wRC+ with +3 OAA and 0.1 WAR. As a SS he's hit .244/.258/.477, a 98 wRC+ with -5 OAA and 0.0 WAR.
His approach in spring training was very improved over last year. In the regular season, it has been awful. He really should be sent down to work on his plate approach and told that he has to stop trying to pull pitches on the outer third of the plate and even off the plate outside. He wants to show he can hit bombs. Congrats - he can for sure. But to play in MLB, he needs to listen to Jim Rice and hit the pitch on the outer half the other way and be compact and to the ball with two strikes. These are things that should have gone away in AA. His defense in CF has the potential to be great. But if he keeps the approach he has, he will have a career like Miles Straw. He is capable of way more. I think they probably avoided sending him down due to terrible SS D by others earlier in year. But with Romy and Hamilton doing an ok job, I would send him down hen O'Neill is healthy. They can play O'Neill, Duran, Abreu w/ Ref at 4th spot and let the kid go back and hone his approach. It would help his development, as it did for Duran to go down and find a MLB compatible approach that works for him and the team. And I love the glove and really hope he is in CF for us for the next decade. But he needs a timeout for a bit to get back to what led to him making the team out of camp. He leads the team in RBI out of the 9 hole in the lineup, so he is at least contributing offensively, and he is the best defender on the team, and maybe in baseball. I’m keeping him up if it’s my call.
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