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9/6-9/8 Red Sox vs. Rays Thread
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Post by voiceofreason on Sept 9, 2021 7:44:07 GMT -5
Silver linings, the covid outbreak and subsequent taking over of the 1st WC spot could have the Sox looking good come the playoffs. They player fewer games than everyone else between now and then and have an easier schedule. Some guys who are out due to covid really needed a break, especially Barnes. Hopefully they don't struggle with any after affects. So they could go into the playoffs a little bit more rested than NY or TBay. Chicago is tough and their big 3 starters have been banged up a little but they have the luxury of resting them or maybe those nagging injuries could linger. Houston seems to be having some clubhouse issues with some guys speaking out negatively. TBay has been on such a tear for so long they could be looking at the law of averages popping up at the wrong time. So at this point the playoff chances are looking good and who knows what happens when you get in, anything can happen. Like the Sox bats come alive at just the right moment. How about that cheap pickup out there in rightfield, Hunter is a player. I was thinking about this the other day. Sox could easily get hot and make a run to thru the WS and win a ring. I would end up looking back and thinking "I'm really glad they went through their struggles in August and not at the end of the season". Meanwhile teams like the Yankees who got REALLY hot might end up looking back and thinking they peaked too soon. I think the peaking too soon thing is real and hope that TBay is the next team to find that out.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 9, 2021 8:00:23 GMT -5
This team...they lose a few games that stick with you all day. then win one that will stick with us for days!
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Post by manfred on Sept 9, 2021 9:38:56 GMT -5
Very late to this… couldn’t watch yesterday. Renfroe had a time capsule game. They could roll highlights in the HOF forever. The sort of thing you play in your backyard as a kid.
He seems pretty stoic, but he’s become one of the most fun huys on the team to watch. There is always something dazzling.
I’ve totally come around on him as next year’s RF. One less question for the off season.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 9, 2021 9:48:34 GMT -5
It's weird but there's something about Hunter Renfroe that reminds me of Tim Salmon. There's a little bit of resemblence and he's a strong arm RF with power. Salmon was the better hitter, but the way Renfroe hit this year, it's not a stat line that would be out of place on the back of Tim Salmon's baseball card.
It's funny. The pickups of Hernandez and Renfroe did not excite me, but they've been pretty astute pickups. Guess that's why I'm not GM or Baseball Chief or whatever those guys are called these days.
The Sox have their Big 3 on offense and Bloom got 3 good supporting players that are a level below offensively a little bit in Renfroe, Hernandez, and Verdugo and then got Schwarber as a 4th big bopper to go with JDM, Devers, and X.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 9, 2021 9:56:44 GMT -5
Very late to this… couldn’t watch yesterday. Renfroe had a time capsule game. They could roll highlights in the HOF forever. The sort of thing you play in your backyard as a kid. He seems pretty stoic, but he’s become one of the most fun huys on the team to watch. There is always something dazzling. I’ve totally come around on him as next year’s RF. One less question for the off season. Two trends across the season for him:
- He's hitting righties better - up to a 106 wRC+. That's playable, though I'd still like to have the option of sitting him some of the time against righties.
- His defense has regressed. The arm was constructed in a ballistics lab, but overall his DRS and UZR numbers are only average-ish. That matches the eye test for me: he looked like a gold glover early in the season, but has been spottier lately, other than the arm.
All in all he's a slightly above average right fielder, which is great value at the price. He's actually been very consistent in WAR rate since 2018 with the exception of 2020 (which was... 2020): 2 or 2.5 WAR per 500 PA. I don't really understand how he came so cheap.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 9, 2021 10:20:55 GMT -5
Very late to this… couldn’t watch yesterday. Renfroe had a time capsule game. They could roll highlights in the HOF forever. The sort of thing you play in your backyard as a kid. He seems pretty stoic, but he’s become one of the most fun huys on the team to watch. There is always something dazzling. I’ve totally come around on him as next year’s RF. One less question for the off season. Two trends across the season for him: - He's hitting righties better - up to a 106 wRC+. That's playable, though I'd still like to have the option of sitting him some of the time against righties. - His defense has regressed. The arm was constructed in a ballistics lab, but overall his DRS and UZR numbers are only average-ish. That matches the eye test for me: he looked like a gold glover early in the season, but has been spottier lately, other than the arm. All in all he's a slightly above average right fielder, which is great value at the price. He's actually been very consistent in WAR rate since 2018 with the exception of 2020 (which was... 2020): 2 or 2.5 WAR per 500 PA. I don't really understand how he came so cheap.
A couple of things. The Sox do have an option to sit Renfroe against righties. Simply play Verdugo in RF and Schwarber in LF and Renfroe has his days off. He came cheap probably because he went from being a .240 hitter from 2017-2018 to being a Mendoza line hitter between 2019-2020 as he batted .216 in 2019 and .156 in limited play in 2020 (still 122 ABs is a lot of ABs to be hitting .156). I know BA isn't the way to judge somebody but if a guy is plummeting toward .200 and below and doesn't walk a ton, it's hard to want to invest a lot of dollars in a guy like that. He's having a career season this season. I'd guess going from TB or San Diego to Fenway helps the BA somewhat although I could be wrong - didn't look at his splits like I should have. The power has always been there, but this year his BA is actually a good 20 points above league average. He's either had a lot of good BABIP luck or more likely he's simply been a better hitter this season, more linedrives into RF for hits and certainly not missing his pitch when he gets it.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 9, 2021 10:34:44 GMT -5
Two trends across the season for him: - He's hitting righties better - up to a 106 wRC+. That's playable, though I'd still like to have the option of sitting him some of the time against righties. - His defense has regressed. The arm was constructed in a ballistics lab, but overall his DRS and UZR numbers are only average-ish. That matches the eye test for me: he looked like a gold glover early in the season, but has been spottier lately, other than the arm. All in all he's a slightly above average right fielder, which is great value at the price. He's actually been very consistent in WAR rate since 2018 with the exception of 2020 (which was... 2020): 2 or 2.5 WAR per 500 PA. I don't really understand how he came so cheap.
A couple of things. The Sox do have an option to sit Renfroe against righties. Simply play Verdugo in RF and Schwarber in LF and Renfroe has his days off. He came cheap probably because he went from being a .240 hitter from 2017-2018 to being a Mendoza line hitter between 2019-2020 as he batted .216 in 2019 and .156 in limited play in 2020 (still 122 ABs is a lot of ABs to be hitting .156).I know BA isn't the way to judge somebody but if a guy is plummeting toward .200 and below and doesn't walk a ton, it's hard to want to invest a lot of dollars in a guy like that. He's having a career season this season. I'd guess going from TB or San Diego to Fenway helps the BA somewhat although I could be wrong - didn't look at his splits like I should have. The power has always been there, but this year his BA is actually a good 20 points above league average. He's either had a lot of good BABIP luck or more likely he's simply been a better hitter this season, more linedrives into RF for hits and certainly not missing his pitch when he gets it. Yeah, I reckon you're probably right about this. He'd basically been an average hitter for his career going into this season whose xwOBA had peaked in his age-26 season in 2018. I can't claim I was super excited about signing him! (IIRC, I felt like he was fine and expected him to functionally platoon with Franchy, who I was moderately optimistic about, so what do I know.)
Suddenly this season his xwOBA has shot up to .361. Did he unlock something, or will this just prove to be, as you say, a career year and an outlier?
To answer your last point: his BABIP is .288, but that's actually 25 points above his career average. On the other hand his wOBA is actually .008 below his xwOBA, so I don't think we can say he's been especially lucky.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 9, 2021 10:54:34 GMT -5
This team...they lose a few games that stick with you all day. then win one that will stick with us for days! Definitely feels better when they win.
Little known math fact: If they win two, lose one, win three, lose two, then repeat that trend for the whole season, they would win 101 games. I try to remind myself of this after a bad loss or two.
Indeed, if they win three out of five over and over, they would win 97 games... this is actually what the 2013 team did most of the season.
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Post by vokuhila on Sept 9, 2021 11:15:42 GMT -5
If you want to have a laugh at the Rays expense, look up their Hunter Renfroe debacle:
They acqired Renfroe (+X) for Jake Cronenworth and Tommy Pham in December of 2019.
Renfroe did nothing for them (negative WAR), Cronenworth created 5.7 WAR, Pham 1.3 WAR. That trade cost them 7 wins over two seasons!
So they non-tender him.
But that's not all! To add insult to injury: He gets pickup up by a rival for nothing and starts producing again. They didn't even get anything back!
Yes, even the Rays make mistakes...and this one is a stinker!!!
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 9, 2021 11:44:50 GMT -5
If you want to have a laugh at the Rays expense, look up their Hunter Renfroe debacle: They acqired Renfroe (+X) for Jake Cronenworth and Tommy Pham in December of 2019. Renfroe did nothing for them (negative WAR), Cronenworth created 5.7 WAR, Pham 1.3 WAR. That trade cost them 7 wins over two seasons! So they non-tender him. But that's not all! To add insult to injury: He gets pickup up by a rival for nothing and starts producing again. They didn't even get anything back! Yes, even the Rays make mistakes...and this one is a stinker!!! While you're at it, look up the TB draft from 2011. They had ten (10!) picks in the first round, which, under the CBA of the day, had 60 picks in it (the Sox had four picks and did pretty well themselves, as most readers here will know).
TB picked 2018 CY winner Blake Snell in that first round -- shrewd FO, right? Well, he was their 7th selection (52nd overall) out of ten in that round. Here are the guys they picked before him:
Taylor Guerrieri Mikie Mahtook Jake Hager Brandon Martin Tyler Goeddel Jeff Ames
Grand total of -0.8 bWAR from those guys, two of whom never made the Show. Sure, no one else took Snell before TB did and they developed him into what he became but let's check ourselves before we anoint the TB FO as can't miss wizards. They had six bites at the apple (giving five of those guys more money than Snell) before finally landing on the guy who everyone remembers.
They wrapped up that monumental first round by selecting Kes Carter, Grayson Garvin, and James Harris, none of whom ever made the bigs. There were seven guys they passed on who have produced >5 bWAR to date, including JBJr (18.1) and Trevor Story (25.5). Yes, everyone misses and that's exactly the point. So does TB.
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Post by soxfan511 on Sept 9, 2021 12:06:20 GMT -5
Renfroe is built for the monster. He has that loft in his swing with excellent power and a big time pull hitter. His arm is incredible and made for right field.
I know they say fenway is made for "lefties" but you bring a power hitting right handed pull happy hitter to this team, he's going to clean up with that monster.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 9, 2021 12:10:48 GMT -5
I know that WAR is a complex calculation and it's a team game so no one person gets all the credit.....but, if ever there was a one WAR game Hunter Renfoe just had it (of course he didn't pitch the first 8 innings but yesterday he might have lol).
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Post by incandenza on Sept 9, 2021 12:19:53 GMT -5
I know that WAR is a complex calculation and it's a team game so no one person gets all the credit.....but, if ever there was a one WAR game Hunter Renfoe just had it (of course he didn't pitch the first 8 innings but yesterday he might have lol). It would be interesting to have defensive WPA as a stat. As it is, his WPA for the game was .578, so that's most of a win right there. On the last play of the game, if he had not made that play the Rays would've had a runner on third with two outs and down by 1. What would that be for them, maybe a 20% chance of winning the game? So add in "dWPA" of 0.2 and that gets him up to about 0.8 for the game. And then there was the out he got at second earlier in the game...
But then it feels like Eovaldi should get like half a win too. And an honorable mention for Bobby's D.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 9, 2021 14:55:25 GMT -5
I had gone off to do some work after the home run, and had not seen the end. Just watched it courtesy of MLB. Renfroe took the game over right to the last out! Do not run on the gun.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,647
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Post by cdj on Sept 9, 2021 15:00:16 GMT -5
Hunter may have opened up a can of worms for the league
If he wins a ball game and gets Manfred fired within 24 hours we build a statue
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Post by voiceofreason on Sept 9, 2021 15:02:02 GMT -5
Renfroe is built for the monster. He has that loft in his swing with excellent power and a big time pull hitter. His arm is incredible and made for right field. I know they say fenway is made for "lefties" but you bring a power hitting right handed pull happy hitter to this team, he's going to clean up with that monster. That may be but earlier this week he hit 2 drives off the monster that would have been HR's anywhere else and he ended up with a single and a double. The wall giveth and the wall taketh.
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Post by reasonabledoubt on Sept 9, 2021 16:50:59 GMT -5
What a scoop (now disputed by MLB) - from WEEI's Woodward and Bernstein!
There is no context here - when did MLB tell "us" and who is "us"? Did these 2 clowns even follow up with questions to dig further?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 10, 2021 11:14:59 GMT -5
If you want to have a laugh at the Rays expense, look up their Hunter Renfroe debacle: They acqired Renfroe (+X) for Jake Cronenworth and Tommy Pham in December of 2019. Renfroe did nothing for them (negative WAR), Cronenworth created 5.7 WAR, Pham 1.3 WAR. That trade cost them 7 wins over two seasons! So they non-tender him. But that's not all! To add insult to injury: He gets pickup up by a rival for nothing and starts producing again. They didn't even get anything back! Yes, even the Rays make mistakes...and this one is a stinker!!! While you're at it, look up the TB draft from 2011. They had ten (10!) picks in the first round, which, under the CBA of the day, had 60 picks in it (the Sox had four picks and did pretty well themselves, as most readers here will know). TB picked 2018 CY winner Blake Snell in that first round -- shrewd FO, right? Well, he was their 7th selection (52nd overall) out of ten in that round. Here are the guys they picked before him: Taylor Guerrieri Mikie Mahtook Jake Hager Brandon Martin Tyler Goeddel Jeff Ames Grand total of -0.8 bWAR from those guys, two of whom never made the Show. Sure, no one else took Snell before TB did and they developed him into what he became but let's check ourselves before we anoint the TB FO as can't miss wizards. They had six bites at the apple (giving five of those guys more money than Snell) before finally landing on the guy who everyone remembers. They wrapped up that monumental first round by selecting Kes Carter, Grayson Garvin, and James Harris, none of whom ever made the bigs. There were seven guys they passed on who have produced >5 bWAR to date, including JBJr (18.1) and Trevor Story (25.5). Yes, everyone misses and that's exactly the point. So does TB.
There's a commonly held misconception that the Rays drafted well over the last decade. More of the young guys they've developed came in trades or were IFAs. In addition to the 2011 debacle, they got nothing from their 2012-2014 drafts (although Honeywell was 2014, a fine pick who just got hurt). 2015 they got Brandon Lowe and Cronenworth but their first two picks didn't do anything. Looking backwards, their best pick in 2010 was Kieramaier... in the 31st round. 2009 was another big whiff. In 2008 they used the #1 pick on Tim Beckham instead of Posey or Hosmer and got nothing else. 2007 was Price at 1-1 with Moore and Vogt so that's a good one. 2006 was great (Longoria, Cobb, Jennings). 2005 they got Hellickson in the 4th but whiffed on Wade Townsend at 1-8. 2004 they got Wade Davis and Jake McGee on what's now Day 2 but whiffed on Jeff Niemann at 1-4. But yeah, I'd push back strongly on anyone who'd suggest the Rays have ever drafted well. They really haven't.
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