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9/21-9/22 Red Sox vs. Mets Series Thread
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Post by ramireja on Sept 20, 2021 15:59:06 GMT -5
9/21 Red Sox (LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, 11-8, 5.00, 142.1 IP, 165K:40BB) vs. Mets (RHP Marcus Stroman, 9-12, 2.88, 169.0 IP, 151K:40BB) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 9/22 Red Sox (LHP Chris Sale, 4-0, 2.40, 30.0 IP, 31K:6BB) vs. Mets (RHP Taijuan Walker, 7-10, 4.27, 149.2 IP, 140K:50BB) 7:10 pm ET, ESPN, NESN/WEEI MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2021: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 20, 2021 19:59:59 GMT -5
Diaz just hit a 3-run bomb off of Robbie Ray to put the Rays up 3-2 in the 5th.
Rays starter was Shane Baz, the PTBNL in the Archer for Glasgow & Meadows deal, making his MLB debut. If you're a Jays fan, Ray (CY favorite?) vs. an MLB debut seems like a mortal lock, no?
Ray now lifted with 2 outs in the 5th. Bad news for the rest of the division: Baz was 5 2 2 0 5, perfect except for solo HR by Hernandez and Gurriel, and never had a 3-ball count. He's been aces in AA and AAA this year.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 20, 2021 20:02:00 GMT -5
That Archer trade has to be the worst of the century, no?
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 20, 2021 20:43:43 GMT -5
That Archer trade has to be the worst of the century, no? The White Sox paid James Shields $60 million to put up .1 WAR after trading Tatis for him |
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 20, 2021 22:21:17 GMT -5
Tatis has already generated over 13 WAR by BR. We have a general idea what that's worth and we can tack it on to that stranded asset. On the assumption that Tatis could have produced that well for Chicago, the vigorish on that bet is at least $150M... so far.
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Post by reasonabledoubt on Sept 20, 2021 22:22:56 GMT -5
Hard to get a sense for this series. The Mets seem like they are a mess (losing 6 straight before finally winning on Sunday), and normally Erod and Sale going would provide a high level of optimism. However Erod does not have good numbers at Fenway this season, and Sale looked not himself in his last start. Hoping for 2 wins but wouldn't surprise if the Red Sox stumble and drop one of these games.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 20, 2021 22:26:36 GMT -5
And...hoping we get some news on Whitlock. It's been a very quiet day in that arena.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 20, 2021 22:42:47 GMT -5
Hard to get a sense for this series. The Mets seem like they are a mess (losing 6 straight before finally winning on Sunday), and normally Erod and Sale going would provide a high level of optimism. However Erod does not have good numbers at Fenway this season, and Sale looked not himself in his last start. Hoping for 2 wins but wouldn't surprise if the Red Sox stumble and drop one of these games. I'd guess that the Mets win on Tuesday and Stroman is tough on them but the Sox hit Magill on Wednesday and win behind Sale? |
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 20, 2021 22:46:31 GMT -5
Rays hold on to beat Toronto
Mariners leads the athletics
Stankees squeak by powerhouse Texas
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 20, 2021 22:50:30 GMT -5
Tatis has already generated over 13 WAR by BR. We have a general idea what that's worth and we can tack it on to that stranded asset. On the assumption that Tatis could have produced that well for Chicago, the vigorish on that bet is at least $150M... so far. Shields was coming off a 1.9 WAR season and was on a pace for 2.1 when traded. Two years later he had a 1.7 WAR season. He looked like a solid 2 WAR pitcher when they traded for him. Tatis was not on the White Sox depth chart after signing internationally and hadn't played a pro inning when he was traded. Much has been written about how the Padres scouted him and knew what he was about better than his own team.
It's also worth noting that a 2 WAR pitcher making $21M a year has negative trade value. So even if you don't think Tatis is anything special, WTF?
What did happen to Shields is kind of brain-bursting. This is ERA and OPS allowed:
18.73, 1.227 -- last start before the trade and first 4 after 1.71, .659 -- next 6 starts 12.07, 1.310 -- next 7 starts 4.75, .740 -- last 5 starts of 2016
1.62, .614 -- first 3 starts of 2017 misses 10 starts on DL 7.93, .984 -- first 9 starts back 4.31, .730 -- remaining 9 starts.
He was 4.53, .754 in his final season, with the usual hot and cold streaks. So he ended each of his first two ChiSox seasons as himself. Who were the impossibly terrible and terrific imposters who also pitched? I would so like to know what was going on.
For at the time stupidity, this isn't nearly as bad as the Bagwell trade.
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Post by benzinger on Sept 21, 2021 0:34:09 GMT -5
That Archer trade has to be the worst of the century, no? There are some decent nominees here: -San Diego trading Kluber to CLE -Texas trading Adrian Gonzalez to SD -Erik Bedard for Adam Jones and Chris Tillman -Bartolo Colon for Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee & Brandon Phillips -Christian Yelich traded by the Marlins That Colon trade is pretty hard to top, but the Archer trade DEFINITELY has a chance to be the worst of them all over time. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 21, 2021 8:38:35 GMT -5
Oh yeah, Colon is the worst. For some reason I wasn't registering it as from this century.
The Expos were 7 games out of the division and in in third place for the wild card 6 games back, coming off a 68 win season. The Expos were owned by MLB at the time, and people loved the optics of them being allowed to go for it.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 21, 2021 9:58:27 GMT -5
I remember Megill being a guy I was hoping they could pluck as a PTBNL, interested to see how he throws in game 2
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Post by taiwansox on Sept 21, 2021 10:23:55 GMT -5
That Archer trade has to be the worst of the century, no? The White Sox paid James Shields $60 million to put up .1 WAR after trading Tatis for him It’s funny it’s basically a trend of teams overpaying for No.2/No.3 starters. Shelby Miller to the Braves is another example that isn’t as egregious. Does anyone remember the Braves trying to pawn off Julio Tehran on us when his peripherals were trash? |
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Post by taiwansox on Sept 21, 2021 10:26:56 GMT -5
I remember Megill being a guy I was hoping they could pluck as a PTBNL, interested to see how he throws in game 2 We definitely have some tough pitching matchups with Stroman and Megill. We do have some experience against Stroman, but our pitching is going to need to carry us |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 21, 2021 10:28:10 GMT -5
I remember Megill being a guy I was hoping they could pluck as a PTBNL, interested to see how he throws in game 2 Speaking of, I see Khalil Lee is batting a perky .269/.449/.489 in Triple-A (though with a .399 BABIP and a 30% K rate). I wonder how many of us would trade Winckowski and Freddy Valdez for him? |
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 21, 2021 10:45:45 GMT -5
I remember Megill being a guy I was hoping they could pluck as a PTBNL, interested to see how he throws in game 2 Speaking of, I see Khalil Lee is batting a perky .269/.449/.489 in Triple-A (though with a .399 BABIP and a 30% K rate). I wonder how many of us would trade Winckowski and Freddy Valdez for him? I don’t know if he makes enough contact. He looked real bad in his call up too (so have a lot of players this year though) 7 for 17 stealing bags too, woof I think Winckowski is more likely to have a career as a big leaguer and Lee probably has more upside |
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 21, 2021 10:50:57 GMT -5
I remember Megill being a guy I was hoping they could pluck as a PTBNL, interested to see how he throws in game 2 Speaking of, I see Khalil Lee is batting a perky .269/.449/.489 in Triple-A (though with a .399 BABIP and a 30% K rate). I wonder how many of us would trade Winckowski and Freddy Valdez for him? I'm dying to see the Alex Speier 5 years down the line tell all of the Mets PTBNL situation. Valdez was immediately hitting 8th and not playing every day in rookie ball, they probably weren't exactly in love with him when they selected him.
The Lee trade looks like the biggest mistake of the Chaim Bloom era to me.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 21, 2021 11:01:41 GMT -5
Speaking of, I see Khalil Lee is batting a perky .269/.449/.489 in Triple-A (though with a .399 BABIP and a 30% K rate). I wonder how many of us would trade Winckowski and Freddy Valdez for him? I don’t know if he makes enough contact. He looked real bad in his call up too (so have a lot of players this year though) 7 for 17 stealing bags too, woof I think Winckowski is more likely to have a career as a big leaguer and Lee probably has more upside It's a shame that Valdez has been disappointing thus far if I was reading correctly. It sounded from the reports I read that his hit tool was highly questionable as was his defense and that his power was the only real tool but would he be able to get to it? I remember other Mets prospects being discussed that were more interesting and I thought they'd come away with one of them. I think Lee can have something of a career but I don't think he's some irreplaceable regular you regret losing. Winckowski will be one of those relievers that starts on occasion. I think Bloom will protect him this winter. I'm starting to think Manfred is right about this entire trade - a lot of nothing for nothing. Benintendi is a decent player but not really much of a loss given how replaceable he's been. The Sox didn't get much for him but aren't mourning his loss either. At this point I think De La Rosa is probably the only guy in the deal that could amount to something, but he's so far away and the odds are so against at this point. The Sox will get some relief work out of Winchowski, but I don't think Cordero is long for the organization, and I doubt Gambrell makes it out of the minors and I have my doubts about Valdez although I wouldn't write him off. |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 21, 2021 11:19:01 GMT -5
I don’t know if he makes enough contact. He looked real bad in his call up too (so have a lot of players this year though) 7 for 17 stealing bags too, woof I think Winckowski is more likely to have a career as a big leaguer and Lee probably has more upside It's a shame that Valdez has been disappointing thus far if I was reading correctly. It sounded from the reports I read that his hit tool was highly questionable as was his defense and that his power was the only real tool but would he be able to get to it? I remember other Mets prospects being discussed that were more interesting and I thought they'd come away with one of them. I think Lee can have something of a career but I don't think he's some irreplaceable regular you regret losing. Winckowski will be one of those relievers that starts on occasion. I think Bloom will protect him this winter. I'm starting to think Manfred is right about this entire trade - a lot of nothing for nothing. Benintendi is a decent player but not really much of a loss given how replaceable he's been. The Sox didn't get much for him but aren't mourning his loss either. At this point I think De La Rosa is probably the only guy in the deal that could amount to something, but he's so far away and the odds are so against at this point. The Sox will get some relief work out of Winchowski, but I don't think Cordero is long for the organization, and I doubt Gambrell makes it out of the minors and I have my doubts about Valdez although I wouldn't write him off. Yeah, this may all be right. Basically Bloom exchanged Benintendi for Renfroe on the roster; can't really complain about that at this point. And then he acquired 5 lottery tickets in the bargain.
But while it's unlikely that any individual lottery ticket hits, the odds of one out of five hitting aren't negligible. And if just one of them hits then the whole thing turns out to be a pretty great deal. At this point there's upside but no real downside.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 21, 2021 12:37:39 GMT -5
So, I did a analysis of what kind of pitchers the Sox, Jays, and Yankees hit best and worst, just in terms of quality. We've been hugely clutch offensively and the Jays incredibly unclutch -- is that because we hit good pitching better than expected and they are fattening their numbers against bad pitching, while being unexpectedly weak against good pitching? Well, sort of. We fare hugely better than them. relative to our overall offenses, against pitchers who have good karma. Guys who have a lower wOBA allowed than xwOBA. As I've mentioned, this has a very real component. You get legit good karma by preventing guys from pulling the ball, and instead get them to hit the ball to the big part of the park in center. You have legit bad karma if you give up a lot of balls pulled.
My current metric just measures how flat or exaggerated the response is to good vs. bad karma. It can't (yet) differentiate between a team that beats good karma and is ordinary against bad, and one that is ordinary against good and fails to exploit bad. But obviously, the better a team is overall, the more the former is likely.
I think the Sox, as a team, are perfectly OK at exploiting guys who give up a lot of pulled fly balls, but are terrific at pulling the ball off of guys who have the big-part-of-the-park skill. And a lot of that has been Bobby Dalbec.
If the Jays are weak against big-park specialists, it's very likely mild. I'm pretty sure that they feast on guys who allow the ball to be pulled, and it makes sense that you see fewer of those guys in high leverage.
(There may well be a second real factor to karma. Watching Xander, and Verdugo when he's going right, and CV even when he isn't -- all three guys by eyeball seem to have the skill of consciously hitting them where they ain't (and have the karma to match, Verdugo prior to this year, when he's been average). It's possible that part of having good or bad pitching karma is limiting or being prone to giving up these well-placed balls. That would be a pitch-repertoire thing.) I did this work last night. It just now occurred to me to use it practically. So, which MLB starting pitcher with a big sample size has the best karma, and is hence the poster child for guys we can be expected to hit unexpectedly well? Marcus Stroman. Seriously. He has a .307 xwOBA, which is third starter territory (MLB average is .314). But his wOBA is .274.
We shall see. But the numbers say that Dalbec (if he's in the lineup!) takes him deep.
Note: I am intentionally not looking at Stroman's other numbers to see where his good karma comes from. That would eat up hours, and I'm curious as to how helpful this discovery is, used just by itself.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 21, 2021 13:30:38 GMT -5
The thing about the Archer trade that looks so bad to me (for the Pirates) is that we're not talking about a trade for a lower pedigree guy that comes out of relative obscurity and becomes a stud -- maybe most similar to the Kluber or Cliff Lee profiles. Instead, we're talking about trading away three dudes with pedigree (Meadows and Baz as 1st rounders, Glasnow as a Top 10 prospect in all of baseball) that were all struggling in the PIT system and therefore were sold at their lowest value. Awful deal. I'm not sure if TAM did anything special to have those three turn into studs or if PIT had a serious development issue at the time.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 21, 2021 15:56:55 GMT -5
Hernandez 8
Schwarber DH
Bogaerts 6
Devers 5
Martinez 7
Verdugo 9
Dalbec 3
Vazquez 2
Iglesias 4
I gotta be honest, it’s kinda nice to have that 1 starting-caliber player who doesn’t fit into the lineup every night- tonight’s PH are Renfroe and Shaw
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 21, 2021 16:22:47 GMT -5
I remember Megill being a guy I was hoping they could pluck as a PTBNL, interested to see how he throws in game 2 Speaking of, I see Khalil Lee is batting a perky .269/.449/.489 in Triple-A (though with a .399 BABIP and a 30% K rate). I wonder how many of us would trade Winckowski and Freddy Valdez for him? I will take Winckowski and Valdez thank you! IMO winckowski can contribute at the MLB level for the Red Sox. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 21, 2021 16:48:15 GMT -5
Hernandez 8 Schwarber DH Bogaerts 6 Devers 5 Martinez 7 Verdugo 9 Dalbec 3 Vazquez 2 Iglesias 4 I gotta be honest, it’s kinda nice to have that 1 starting-caliber player who doesn’t fit into the lineup every night- tonight’s PH are Renfroe and Shaw How good is this lineup, in general? I didn't even notice Renfroe was missing tonight. He's their 5th best RHH right now.
I don't think it's an advantage worth paying two DH / LF types upwards of $20M each for a whole season. But it's a great move for the last two months of a year, especially if the addition is making walk-year money as is the case here.
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