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10/5 - AL Wild Card Game: Red Sox vs. Yankees
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 6, 2021 15:29:00 GMT -5
I've already penciled in Correa for them. But with Cole, Stanton, and Judge already on the roster, I wonder if they can really "afford" (i.e., if Steinbrenner will be willing to spend for) another $30 million player. I have google so many news papers in past month in LA and what they're saying the Dodgers will be all in on Correa more than Max Scherzer and let Corey Seager walk. They do have trea turner for one more year and my assumption would be they traded for him to let seager go and still have ss covered but all bets are off with the dodgers.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2021 15:33:43 GMT -5
Tuner will play second base like he is doing now.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 6, 2021 15:35:37 GMT -5
Tuner will play second base like he is doing now. It doesn't seem very dodgers to me to go out and give Correa the 300+ million when they have turner at ss for another year when he's probably just as good maybe better? But all bets are off with the dodgers like I said so it wouldn't surprise me either.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2021 15:41:07 GMT -5
I'm just saying what there beat writers are saying
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Post by benzinger on Oct 6, 2021 15:42:21 GMT -5
Huh. Fangraphs has the Red Sox with the best odds of winning the AL pennant, and the second most likely to win the World Series. Not sure I really buy that... their algorithms seem way too down on the Rays' chances, giving us a 60% chance of winning the LDS. But kind of interesting. That’s ridiculous. I would say TB and HOU are CLEARLY better than the Sox. CWS?? I would think the Sox are a little more evenly matched there, and would have a decent shot. Who knows how they are crunching these numbers. TB and HOU clobbered the Sox this year. Anything can happen in a short series, but....
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Post by benzinger on Oct 6, 2021 15:45:54 GMT -5
I've already penciled in Correa for them. But with Cole, Stanton, and Judge already on the roster, I wonder if they can really "afford" (i.e., if Steinbrenner will be willing to spend for) another $30 million player. If they sign a Correa or a Seager, it probably means they can’t pay Judge??
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Post by incandenza on Oct 6, 2021 15:49:44 GMT -5
Huh. Fangraphs has the Red Sox with the best odds of winning the AL pennant, and the second most likely to win the World Series. Not sure I really buy that... their algorithms seem way too down on the Rays' chances, giving us a 60% chance of winning the LDS. But kind of interesting. That’s ridiculous. I would say TB and HOU are CLEARLY better than the Sox. CWS?? I would think the Sox are a little more evenly matched there, and would have a decent shot. Who knows how they are crunching these numbers. TB and HOU clobbered the Sox this year. Anything can happen in a short series, but.... The White Sox have seemed to me, on paper, to be the best team in the AL all season. But they have LaRussa, which may be the reason they sort of underperformed despite playing in the weakest division in the majors. We'll see if he blows it for them in the playoffs.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 6, 2021 15:58:02 GMT -5
I'm just saying what there beat writers are saying I think the Dodgers will do everything they can to keep Scherzer. They always seem to prioritize pitching and they should have Bauer’s money to spend there, as well. I also don’t see why they would pay Correa rather than just keep Seager??
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Post by patford on Oct 6, 2021 17:05:13 GMT -5
So based on what is being reported the Dodgers are planning on being one billion dollars over the cap by 2022?
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Post by taiwansox on Oct 6, 2021 17:07:03 GMT -5
Much of his value is tied to defense and the Red Sox aren't moving Xander off SS just yet. No way I pay that price for a 2B. I am definitely with you on that, I am much more curious if the MFY’s might do that though. I think one of Correa or Semien probably signs with them. I think I would rather them sign Semien, although Correa is also in a career year type of season and he always gets hurt so…maybe this is not very important really I still feel like Correa is overrated given that he was a No. 1 overall pick. He’s injured all the time and his bat is very good, but that’s also partially due to always having protection in the lineup. He’s still young, but he’s a little bit like Tulowitzki with his injury profile. I also don’t like the idea of overrating players in hitters’ parks (even net of OPS+/wRC+ corrections), which I think is just an added variable in each player’s aging curve.
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Post by patford on Oct 6, 2021 17:24:51 GMT -5
This is kind of an insane amount of hard hit balls in a 6-2 game. Schwarber's HR was one of the purest hits I saw this season. It came out of his bat like it would do some Looney Tunes stuff and go around the globe before it landed. It was like a perfect haymaker that lands square in the chin. I'm surprised the ev wasn't higher, it felt like an absolute BOMB in action. Maybe because of the trajectory? Note that Stanton's first inning Moonshot "HR" isn't on the list.
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art
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Posts: 330
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Post by art on Oct 6, 2021 17:34:06 GMT -5
To paraphrase Richard Fariña: he's been down so long it looks like up to him. Sadly, I remember him and Turn Your Money Green whne it was new (but on the upside I got to enjoy the '67 Sox and still have the scorecard I kept from Game 2 (row 10 behind home plate) when Lonberg one hit the Cards. I was also in the park for that game, sitting in the bleachers. Can't remember who doubled in the 8th to spoil the no-no, but it was one of their stars. I went to game 6 too.
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Post by Don Caballero on Oct 6, 2021 18:10:12 GMT -5
Maybe because of the trajectory? Note that Stanton's first inning Moonshot "HR" isn't on the list. That plays a part, but I think what made it really impressive was the mix of high, violent fastball being met with a compact and stout swing. The sound it made was glorious.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Oct 6, 2021 18:10:21 GMT -5
Is it really that much of problem to say, “first half Red Sox blew everyone’s expectations out of the water. The middle months of July and August were a letdown based on what they’ve already accomplished. September was better, but it was uninspiring losing big games, getting swept by NY and the final 6 against some of the worst teams in baseball was too close for comfort. They won a major, major game that eliminated the pre-season favorite Yankees who chose to face you, the Boston Red Sox, out of a potential 3 teams to choose from. You gave them what they wanted and now they’re going home. Grand picture, a successful year. Disappointing drop off, but they accomplished a WC1 finish and a victory to go to the ALDS. Anything more is just exceeding even pre-July expectations.”
Tampa won a 100. I thought the Red Sox would win the division after Glasnow went down. Commend Tampa for their valiant season. Expecting Boston to get over 100 is quite the ask. The 2004 team didn’t even break 100. I just wanted the Red Sox in the ALDS. Winning the division or not, they’re here now so the how doesn’t even matter.
Tampa is the 1 team I feel like Boston has a legit chance of beating. I still have Tampa winning the series, but I like our odds against them over anyone else. I might like Chicago more than Houston though, if the Sox get that far.
One last point, if the Red Sox bullpen is the weak link, it’s not going to matter as much honestly. The Red Sox will likely use their starters out of the bullpen on their throwing days to maximize the best arms coming out. Hansel Robles has been a revelation and Houck and Whitlock I feel very confidently when they’re out there. It’s not as dire as one might think. Just have to clean up the defense and base running.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 6, 2021 18:13:03 GMT -5
Sadly, I remember him and Turn Your Money Green whne it was new (but on the upside I got to enjoy the '67 Sox and still have the scorecard I kept from Game 2 (row 10 behind home plate) when Lonberg one hit the Cards. I was also in the park for that game, sitting in the bleachers. Can't remember who doubled in the 8th to spoil the no-no, but it was one of their stars. I went to game 6 too. Julian Javier broke up Lonborg's no-hitter.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Oct 6, 2021 18:13:16 GMT -5
In maybe Gardner’s last series in Fenway, he went 0-3 with 3 K’s. I don’t know about you guys but this is extremely satisfying to me. Until he comes back, again, just to haunt the Red Sox.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 6, 2021 18:53:34 GMT -5
That’s ridiculous. I would say TB and HOU are CLEARLY better than the Sox. CWS?? I would think the Sox are a little more evenly matched there, and would have a decent shot. Who knows how they are crunching these numbers. TB and HOU clobbered the Sox this year. Anything can happen in a short series, but.... The White Sox have seemed to me, on paper, to be the best team in the AL all season. But they have LaRussa, which may be the reason they sort of underperformed despite playing in the weakest division in the majors. We'll see if he blows it for them in the playoffs. The White Sox won 1 more game than us while playing in a division where had one club above .500, where we were in a division that had one club under .560. And your division constitutes 47% of your schedule.
(Yes, I know you're looking at roster talent, but even the numbers every player puts up are skeded by SOS.)
Sometime in the next week I'm going to resurrect my "True Standings" spreadsheet to get an accurate measure of everyone's actual W/L record given a neutral schedule. Warning: eyeballs may explode.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 6, 2021 21:27:44 GMT -5
The White Sox have seemed to me, on paper, to be the best team in the AL all season. But they have LaRussa, which may be the reason they sort of underperformed despite playing in the weakest division in the majors. We'll see if he blows it for them in the playoffs. The White Sox won 1 more game than us while playing in a division where had one club above .500, where we were in a division that had one club under .560. And your division constitutes 47% of your schedule.
(Yes, I know you're looking at roster talent, but even the numbers every player puts up are skeded by SOS.)
Sometime in the next week I'm going to resurrect my "True Standings" spreadsheet to get an accurate measure of everyone's actual W/L record given a neutral schedule. Warning: eyeballs may explode.
A few days ago I tried a very unscientific mental exeercise. I thought to myself "Can the White Sox starting rotation be construed in any way to not be clearly the best in the AL, if we take into account the strength of competition and all that?" I decided they still stand up as having the best pitching staff in the AL. It is a low-confidence assessment though.
In any case, I think the four teams left standing are close enough to each other that no outcome would be surprising. The Rays might be the best 162-game team, but their strength seems built on depth, an advantage that shrinks when, e.g., the Red Sox don't have to dip into the weak end of their bullpen and Franchy/Marwin/Santana have all been sent out to pasture.
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Post by soxjim on Oct 6, 2021 21:50:54 GMT -5
-- The excellent announcing team in the Statcast broadcast had a great stat that helps explain the decision to send Judge: Joey Gallo has two career sacrifice flies. That's in 127 opportunities! With average hitters versus average pitchers coming up, you need a 67% chance of scoring to send the runner, according to FG ... but with the matchups here, it was probably around 50-50. I'm not sure that sending Judge was the right call, but it was completely defensible. The emphasis here should be on the brilliance of the relay.
OK, that wasn't quick. Who am I kidding? Sending Judge because of the concern of Gallo sort of justifies the send, but then it opens up the question why did the Yanks have Gallo so high up in the order? So was sit deliberate that Nevin sent Judge because of Gallo in that they were forced by Cashman and their Analytics consultants to put Gallo up so high but really didn't want him up that high? And fi so, was it just Nevin or maybe Boone too vs Cashman and company?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 6, 2021 22:17:09 GMT -5
I have google so many news papers in past month in LA and what they're saying the Dodgers will be all in on Correa more than Max Scherzer and let Corey Seager walk. They do have trea turner for one more year and my assumption would be they traded for him to let seager go and still have ss covered but all bets are off with the dodgers. Indeed, the Dodgers seem to be immune to the luxury tax.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 6, 2021 22:18:10 GMT -5
Well I finished watching the game. Getting to see how dominant Houck, Robles, and (aside from the home run), Whitlock were was pretty breathtaking. And seeing Gardner K so often - then have him sitting in the on deck circle when Whitlock closed it out - priceless.
What also showed was the sheer joy players like Schwarber, Verdugo, Devers, Renfro, Eovaldi and Sale (just to mention a few) showed.
I am ignoring any predictions by the pundits. The games have to be played - Cora has the team playing fun and loose. This team can indeed beat Tampa.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Oct 6, 2021 23:05:57 GMT -5
F the Yankees!!
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 7, 2021 11:24:40 GMT -5
Huh. Fangraphs has the Red Sox with the best odds of winning the AL pennant, and the second most likely to win the World Series. Not sure I really buy that... their algorithms seem way too down on the Rays' chances, giving us a 60% chance of winning the LDS. But kind of interesting. That’s ridiculous. I would say TB and HOU are CLEARLY better than the Sox. CWS?? I would think the Sox are a little more evenly matched there, and would have a decent shot. Who knows how they are crunching these numbers. TB and HOU clobbered the Sox this year. Anything can happen in a short series, but.... Well, there is this: That's Out of the Park Baseball by the way. So far, they got the Red Sox and Dodgers correct.
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