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2021 System Review: By The Numbers
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Post by ramireja on Oct 4, 2021 11:40:09 GMT -5
I'm going to start a thread for some random stats nuggets as I take a peak at year-end stats in the system. Feel free to add if you see anything of interest!
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Post by ramireja on Oct 4, 2021 11:45:06 GMT -5
The Hitters
161: That’s Eddinson Paulino’s wRC+ in the Florida Complex League this year. How good was that? It ranked 3rd among 118 players with at least 100 PAs, and if you arbitrarily move the cutoff to 130 PAs (Paulino had 133), it ranks 1st among 64 players. Here’s another nugget, among players with 100 PAs in our system, Paulino’s 15.8 K% was the lowest among all players with a IsoP greater than .200.
24: That’s the number of home runs that led both the Red Sox minor league system and also High-A East this year. Congrats Tyler Dearden. He also managed to do that with a .368 OBP and a .891 OPS that ranked 4th out of 46 qualified hitters in High-A East. I slightly wonder what we’d be saying about Dearden if instead of signing out of HS in 2017, he had been drafted as a college junior in 2020 and put together this caliber of High-A season in his first full season.
15 & 150: Only one player in the system (min 100 PAs) struck out in fewer than 15% of plate appearances while managing to do enough damage to the baseball to record an IsoP of > .150. That player was Cam Cannon. If you adjust these (admittedly arbitrary) thresholds to striking out in fewer than 20% of PAs with an IsoP of > .200, that list then includes Eddinson Paulino, Devlin Granberg, Joe Davis, Blaze Jordan, Stephen Scott, Jhostynxon Garcia, Triston Casas, Ryan Fitzgerald, and Ronaldo Hernandez.
52: The number of extra-base-hits (XBH) for Ryan Fitzgerald who led our system in that category. He finished the year with 32 2Bs, 4 3Bs, and 16 HR (IsoP = .242). I also want to acknowledge the system runner up, Nicholas Northcut, who ended the season with 32 2Bs, 2 3Bs, and 17 HRs (51 XBHs, IsoP = .252). Really solid years for these two players.
15/15: Jarren Duran was the only player in the Red Sox minor league system to hit at least 15 HR and steal at least 15 bags. He actually ended the season with 16 HR and 16 SB in the minors (+2 and 2 in the majors). What’s perhaps most impressive is that he accomplished the 15/15 season in only 60 games with a pace of about a 32/32 season had he played in all of Worcester’s 118 games. I don’t believe any minor leaguer joined the 30/30 club this year although Bobby Witt Jr. finished with 33 HR and 29 SB while stealing a 30th bag that didn’t end up counting after that game was canceled due to rainout. Also note, although Jeter Downs struggled this year, he did finish the season with 14 HR and 18 SB just narrowly missing the 15/15 threshold.
1.78. Granted it’s the DSL where a number of pitchers may be unable to throw stikes with any regularity, but Enderso Lira’s BB/K ratio of 1.78 was 2nd best among 190 qualified hitters. He walked in an impressive 19.8% of plate appearances while striking out in only 11.1% of them demonstrating some of the best plate discipline in the entire league despite being only 17 years old. Also notable, the list of 26 qualified players in the DSL who walked as much as they struck also included Jhostynxon Garcia, Alex Zapete, and Juan Chacon, with Lyonell James narrowly missing that accomplishment.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Oct 4, 2021 16:20:24 GMT -5
The Hitters161: That’s Eddinson Paulino’s wRC+ in the Florida Complex League this year. How good was that? It ranked 3rd among 118 players with at least 100 PAs, and if you arbitrarily move the cutoff to 130 PAs (Paulino had 133), it ranks 1st among 64 players. Here’s another nugget, among players with 100 PAs in our system, Paulino’s 15.8 K% was the lowest among all players with a IsoP greater than .200. 24: That’s the number of home runs that led both the Red Sox minor league system and also High-A East this year. Congrats Tyler Dearden. He also managed to do that with a .368 OBP and a .891 OPS that ranked 4th out of 46 qualified hitters in High-A East. I slightly wonder what we’d be saying about Dearden if instead of signing out of HS in 2017, he had been drafted as a college junior in 2020 and put together this caliber of High-A season in his first full season. 15 & 150: Only one player in the system (min 100 PAs) struck out in fewer than 15% of plate appearances while managing to do enough damage to the baseball to record an IsoP of > .150. That player was Cam Cannon. If you adjust these (admittedly arbitrary) thresholds to striking out in fewer than 20% of PAs with an IsoP of > .200, that list then includes Eddinson Paulino, Devlin Granberg, Joe Davis, Blaze Jordan, Stephen Scott, Jhostynxon Garcia, Triston Casas, Ryan Fitzgerald, and Ronaldo Hernandez. 52: The number of extra-base-hits (XBH) for Ryan Fitzgerald who led our system in that category. He finished the year with 32 2Bs, 4 3Bs, and 16 HR (IsoP = .242). I also want to acknowledge the system runner up, Nicholas Northcut, who ended the season with 32 2Bs, 2 3Bs, and 17 HRs (51 XBHs, IsoP = .252). Really solid years for these two players. 15/15: Jarren Duran was the only player in the Red Sox minor league system to hit at least 15 HR and steal at least 15 bags. He actually ended the season with 16 HR and 16 SB in the minors (+2 and 2 in the majors). What’s perhaps most impressive is that he accomplished the 15/15 season in only 60 games with a pace of about a 32/32 season had he played in all of Worcester’s 118 games. I don’t believe any minor leaguer joined the 30/30 club this year although Bobby Witt Jr. finished with 33 HR and 29 SB while stealing a 30th bag that didn’t end up counting after that game was canceled due to rainout. Also note, although Jeter Downs struggled this year, he did finish the season with 14 HR and 18 SB just narrowly missing the 15/15 threshold. 1.78. Granted it’s the DSL where a number of pitchers may be unable to throw stikes with any regularity, but Enderso Lira’s BB/K ratio of 1.78 was 2nd best among 190 qualified hitters. He walked in an impressive 19.8% of plate appearances while striking out in only 11.1% of them demonstrating some of the best plate discipline in the entire league despite being only 17 years old. Also notable, the list of 26 qualified players in the DSL who walked as much as they struck also included Jhostynxon Garcia, Alex Zapete, and Juan Chacon, with Lyonell James narrowly missing that accomplishment. How.... did you know this.... |
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Post by ramireja on Oct 4, 2021 16:58:44 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline posted this tweet immediately after Witt first stole the 30th bag....then the game was later postponed and eventually canceled taking away the honor.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 4, 2021 19:32:32 GMT -5
Fitzy had 32 doubles, 4 three-baggers, and 16 dongs, good for 186 TB (also tops in the system?)
EDIT: Nope, Nick Yorke had 195 TB, Chistian Koss had 193, and Joe Davis had 192...
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art
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Post by art on Oct 4, 2021 20:25:27 GMT -5
Fitzy had 32 doubles, 4 three-baggers, and 16 dongs, good for 186 TB (also tops in the system?)
EDIT: Nope, Nick Yorke had 195 TB, Chistian Koss had 193, and Joe Davis had 192...
The deal for Christian Koss is looking very nice. It seems like we have a lot more promising bats in our system than we've had for quite a while. |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 4, 2021 20:25:52 GMT -5
5 >2 : Five minor leaguers in the Sox system averaged more than 2 TB per game (doesn't count big league time). They were Joe Davis (192 TB in 95 games), Jarren Duran (126 in 60), Blaze Jordan (62 in 28), Joey Meneses (177 in 88), and Nick Yorke (195 in 97). Honorable mention to Franchy Cordero (153 TB in 78 games), as well as to 2021 draftees Philip Sikes (46 in 24) and Tyler Miller (53 in 27), who weren't done mashing after 50+ games each at Texas Christian and Auburn, respectively.
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art
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Posts: 335
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Post by art on Oct 4, 2021 21:27:26 GMT -5
Miller at 9 and Sikes at 18 shows that there was some very astute scouting and evaluation in the organization this year.
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Post by tomhouse on Oct 5, 2021 14:29:03 GMT -5
Fun facts, bright and shiny. Every team in every league in the Sox organization had a winning record well over .500, except for the DSL Red team. Every team finished in the top half of its division. The parent club had the second worst record in the system at 92-70.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 6, 2021 5:44:00 GMT -5
5 >2 : Five minor leaguers in the Sox system averaged more than 2 TB per game (doesn't count big league time). They were Joe Davis (192 TB in 95 games), Jarren Duran (126 in 60), Blaze Jordan (62 in 28), Joey Meneses (177 in 88), and Nick Yorke (195 in 97). Honorable mention to Franchy Cordero (153 TB in 78 games), as well as to 2021 draftees Philip Sikes (46 in 24) and Tyler Miller (53 in 27), who weren't done mashing after 50+ games each at Texas Christian and Auburn, respectively. Still amazing that Jim Rice had 406 TB in 1978. Nobody's had more since unless aided by Coors or chemistry. |
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Post by ramireja on Oct 8, 2021 12:15:20 GMT -5
The arms
2.58: That’s the lowest xFIP in High-A East among 81 pitchers with at least 50 innings. It belongs to Brandon Walter. Walter’s 3.70 ERA in High-A wasn’t even bad, but when you look under the hood, his season really shines. He struck out a ridiculous 36.3% of batters (2nd best out of 81), walked only 5.9% (18th lowest out of 81), and generated a GB% of 58.8% (3rd best out of 81). He was truly dominant at the level, and a 53.0 LOB% (2nd worst out of 81) contributed to a merely decent ERA. What’s crazy about his year is that he put up similarly dominant stats in Low-A (xFIP = 2.39) but did so largely from the bullpen and while being quite old for the league. I’m not sure anyone expected the same level of dominance after being inserted into the starting rotation and moving up a level.
3.2: That’s the percentage of batters walked by Victor Santos (the return of C.J. Chatham) on the year with Portland. It’s the lowest rate among all pitchers in the system with at least 20 innings this year including both relievers and starters. He’s not a huge K guy but still did muster a respectable 23.8 K%. On top of all of this, Santos began the year as a 20-yr old and only turned 21 in July. He will be Rule 5 eligible this offseason but I can’t help but see major league upside from the guy.
4: The number of players with more Ks than innings pitched (i.e., K/9 > 9) and more innings pitched than baserunners (i.e., WHIP < 1.0). It’s not perfect, but it’s kind of a nice shorthand sign of dominance at a given level. Those four players include two starters in Brandon Walter and Juan Daniel Encarnacion, and two relievers in Casey Cobb and Devon Roedahl.
40.6: The percentage of batters struck out by Jay Groome in 15.2 AA innings. Of course it’s a miniscule sample (64 batters faced), but it comes after striking out 30.8% of batters in A+. Across levels, his 32.4 K% ranked 4th among starters in the system (behind only Walter, Crawford, and Bello) and represents encouraging swing-and-miss stuff from a guy who we’ve been waiting on a long time to pitch a full season.
.492: That’s the lowest OPS against registered by any pitcher in our minor league system with at least 20 innings and it belongs to Barbaro Pinero. That’s it. That’s the stat.
12.80: This is Kutter Crawford’s ridiculous K/BB ratio throughout his 46.1 innings with Portland this year. Yes, for every walk given up by Crawford, he struck out an insane 12.8 batters! That rate led AA-Northeast for all 126 pitchers with at least 40 innings. In fairness, I think that K%-BB% is a better statistic, and for that, Crawford registered a 34.3% ranking 2nd out of 126. He was dominant though. His 0.82 WHIP also ranked first among the same grouping of pitchers. Crawford basically split his year nearly equally between AA and AAA, and while the surface stats don’t jump off the page in AAA (5.21 ERA, 1.32 WHIP), his peripherals were once again strong with a K%-BB% of 24.9% ranking 15th out of 207 pitchers in AAA-East with at least 40 innings. The only pitcher younger than 25 that ranked ahead of him was top prospect, Shane Baz.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 8, 2021 23:58:07 GMT -5
5 >2 : Five minor leaguers in the Sox system averaged more than 2 TB per game (doesn't count big league time). They were Joe Davis (192 TB in 95 games), Jarren Duran (126 in 60), Blaze Jordan (62 in 28), Joey Meneses (177 in 88), and Nick Yorke (195 in 97). Honorable mention to Franchy Cordero (153 TB in 78 games), as well as to 2021 draftees Philip Sikes (46 in 24) and Tyler Miller (53 in 27), who weren't done mashing after 50+ games each at Texas Christian and Auburn, respectively. Still amazing that Jim Rice had 406 TB in 1978. Nobody's had more since unless aided by Coors or chemistry. Simply ridiculous how long it took him to get into the HOF. He was a monster and every pitcher feared him.
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Post by costpet on Oct 9, 2021 7:16:55 GMT -5
I just remember how strong he was. He once snapped his bat in two with a checked swing. Geez
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 9, 2021 7:31:38 GMT -5
Still amazing that Jim Rice had 406 TB in 1978. Nobody's had more since unless aided by Coors or chemistry. Simply ridiculous how long it took him to get into the HOF. He was a monster and every pitcher feared him.
We now know of course that his low walk rates and his attitude that “it’s my job to drive in the run even if they don’t throw me a pitch I can hit” often made him a weaker offensive player than Evans. And his GIDP numbers were amazing—in part due to how often Evans and Boggs were on base. |
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Oct 9, 2021 17:49:58 GMT -5
Simply ridiculous how long it took him to get into the HOF. He was a monster and every pitcher feared him.
We now know of course that his low walk rates and his attitude that “it’s my job to drive in the run even if they don’t throw me a pitch I can hit” often made him a weaker offensive player than Evans. And his GIDP numbers were amazing—in part due to how often Evans and Boggs were on base. What is also ridiculous is why Dwight Evans is not in the HOF. IMO Evans should be there too! |
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Post by incandenza on Oct 9, 2021 18:09:59 GMT -5
Dwight Evans:
-Played ~20% more games than Rice
-Had ~30% more fWAR and ~40% more bWAR
-Had essentially the same wRC+ (129 vs. 128)
-Had 3 more home runs and 6 fewer hits (also 110 more doubles and more than twice as many walks)
-Had a WPA ~50% higher
-Had better postseason numbers
They performed at a remarkably similar level but Evans maintained it for longer. I can't think of any reasonable set of criteria by which someone could vote Rice into the Hall but not Evans.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 10, 2021 15:00:44 GMT -5
Dwight Evans: -Played ~20% more games than Rice -Had ~30% more fWAR and ~40% more bWAR -Had essentially the same wRC+ (129 vs. 128) -Had 3 more home runs and 6 fewer hits (also 110 more doubles and more than twice as many walks) -Had a WPA ~50% higher -Had better postseason numbers They performed at a remarkably similar level but Evans maintained it for longer. I can't think of any reasonable set of criteria by which someone could vote Rice into the Hall but not Evans. One problem with perception of the two is that Rice burst on the scene as a terrifying hitter in 1975-78, while Evans took a long time to become excellent at the plate and was platooned for a while, so fans started with one image of them that they may or may not have adjusted later, say when Evans hit .279 .388 .504 .892 for seven years, after nine years of .262 .344 .448 .792. Another problem is that Evans did not have that many great first halves and was only an all-star three times. A third is that one of Evans' best years was 1981 where the strike cost them 54 games. He led the lead in HR and BB and TB and OPS, but no one cared. Rice had one of the weakest years of his 20s. |
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Post by ramireja on Oct 13, 2021 15:57:26 GMT -5
8: The number of qualified players in the DSL this year with an OBP > .400 and an IsoP > .200.
3: The number of qualified players in the DSL who accomplished the above while striking out in < 20% of PAs.
2: The number of qualified players who did all of the above at the age of 18 or younger. They are Jhostynxon Garcia (BOS) and Carlos Jorge (CIN).
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 13, 2021 20:37:25 GMT -5
Dwight Evans: -Played ~20% more games than Rice -Had ~30% more fWAR and ~40% more bWAR -Had essentially the same wRC+ (129 vs. 128) -Had 3 more home runs and 6 fewer hits (also 110 more doubles and more than twice as many walks) -Had a WPA ~50% higher -Had better postseason numbers They performed at a remarkably similar level but Evans maintained it for longer. I can't think of any reasonable set of criteria by which someone could vote Rice into the Hall but not Evans. One problem with perception of the two is that Rice burst on the scene as a terrifying hitter in 1975-78, while Evans took a long time to become excellent at the plate and was platooned for a while, so fans started with one image of them that they may or may not have adjusted later, say when Evans hit .279 .388 .504 .892 for seven years, after nine years of .262 .344 .448 .792. Another problem is that Evans did not have that many great first halves and was only an all-star three times. A third is that one of Evans' best years was 1981 where the strike cost them 54 games. He led the lead in HR and BB and TB and OPS, but no one cared. Rice had one of the weakest years of his 20s. I think that Dewey also lacked the kind of full-throated support from the Boston media that Rice enjoyed (ironic as that may sound). Dewey's arm was always marveled at but he was kind of mocked for continually tinkering with weird batting stances and he also bounced around the batting order, so I think that contributed to less attention paid to his offensive numbers and him being overshadowed by Rice, Lynn, Yaz, Boggs, Armas, over the years -- Dewey was never looked at as the straw stirring the drink.
I'd like to see him get in but I've lost too much interest in the HOF over the last decade or so to get exercised over it.
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Post by ramireja on Oct 25, 2021 18:39:02 GMT -5
I mentioned him earlier but did a little extra digging...
.252: The highest IsoP in Low-A East among 46 qualified players. It belongs to Nicholas Northcut who achieved that mark on the strength of 32 2Bs, 2 3Bs and 17 HRs. His 0.252 IsoP was still highest among 84 players in the league even if you drop the minimum threshold of PAs to 250. Even more impressive, of the 11 players with 250 PAs and an IsoP of .200 or greater, Northcut is only one of two with a K% less than 25% (Northcut's was 22.6%). What's even more and more impressive is that Northcut did this while playing half of his games at Salem which greatly suppresses HRs. Here are his home/road splits:
Home: .237/.342/.423 - 765 OPS (5HR, .186 IsoP)
Road: .280/.359/.587 - 947 OPS (12HR, .307 IsoP)
He had a really nice season and I'm pretty intrigued to see how he does in Greenville next year.
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