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Red Sox vs. Rays 2021 ALDS Gameday Thread
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 12, 2021 11:41:16 GMT -5
It feels like we may have acquired a reliable SP for ALCS. A lot of people had lost confidence in E-Rod, but now he looks like a guy who could give us two solid starts against the 'Stros of Chisox. Not to mention Nick Pivetta, depending on whether AC decides to put him back in the rotation. Maybe he swaps roles with Sale? Although I suspect Sale gets at least one more shot at starting.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 12, 2021 11:45:49 GMT -5
The game is scheduled for friday regardless, I guess another rain out would matter but as of now it is friday. Thank you. And I hope the series DOES start Friday, because a few days' rest for the troops/arms is fine, but too much layoff creates rust and destroys momentum. So if we start Friday, Eovaldi and ERod could start the first two in Houston on normal rest (rather than added rest.) Is this what everybody is expecting, or does Sale need to be tried early - maybe better in Houston than Boston? He's going to have a long layoff as it is, which may be good given his condition. Would we rather have ERod facing Houston there than in Fenway (G2 and G6). Under any circumstances I think I want Eovaldi starting G1 and G5 because that would allow him to appear in relief in a G7, if it goes that far. I hope that we start Sale in game 1 because he is our best pitcher.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Oct 12, 2021 11:57:59 GMT -5
Thank you. And I hope the series DOES start Friday, because a few days' rest for the troops/arms is fine, but too much layoff creates rust and destroys momentum. So if we start Friday, Eovaldi and ERod could start the first two in Houston on normal rest (rather than added rest.) Is this what everybody is expecting, or does Sale need to be tried early - maybe better in Houston than Boston? He's going to have a long layoff as it is, which may be good given his condition. Would we rather have ERod facing Houston there than in Fenway (G2 and G6). Under any circumstances I think I want Eovaldi starting G1 and G5 because that would allow him to appear in relief in a G7, if it goes that far. I hope that we start Sale in game 1 because he is our best pitcher. When healthy, yeah.
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Post by GyIantosca on Oct 12, 2021 12:24:03 GMT -5
I hate to say it but the starters are window dressing. If you get something it’s a bonus. I wish Sale could go out the and do a Pedro. You just have to get to the dance.
MLB says the MFYS are leaning towards bringing back the same crew. Thank you .
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,961
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 12, 2021 12:53:39 GMT -5
Bringing in McLanahan was very dumb for them. Ericmvan was right that wa a bad move. If they hadn’t done that who knows. He also called not using Wisler back to back days, he looked like the last option I spent a while despairing that anyone would ask Cash, "what were you thinking?" And then I figured it out, I think.
He announced that Wacha would probably be used, which would imply a bullpen game, and Baz as well when you did the days-rest math. Fooled me and everyone else. Including himself!
The plan was to announce McHugh as starter of an apparent bullpen game, but actually use him as an opener for McClanahan as a 4-inning bulk guy, on three days rest, and then come back with Baz on 4 days rest if they got to game 5. That explains why he stuck so long with McClanahan, which was otherwise a total mystery. Since he was going to use McHugh to get two innings anyway, naming him as the starter assures that Verdugo is in the lineup instead of Dalbec. And Dalbec had been getting the bat on the ball of 97+ heat for a while now. Lots of fouls just missing, and a few hard hit balls right at people.
My game formula had Wacha and Baz getting two IP each on their side-session day. That's probably where Cash started. The next thought is, Baz on full rest could give you 5 or 6 and set up a rested bullpen in game 5, so if I use McClanahan on short rest in this game, I come out ahead. I'm losing 2 innings of McClanahan, maybe even just 1, but I'm gaining 3 or 4 of Baz and staying away from Wacha entirely. I don't think his trust in Baz in game 5 was misguided; that guy has great stuff.
Cash had to be aware that guys sometimes get hammered pitching on three days rest (either without a side session, or on 1 days rest from one) and probably talked himself into taking the risk because of what the numbers show. But you can go hand-gliding or ice-climbing in bad weather and have a 95% chance of survival, and ... you don't go, because if you're wrong, you're dead.
He outsmarted himself. One fundamental difference between him and Cora is that Cora doesn't do that.
So, McClanhan goes 0.2 IP instead of 4. First thing Cash does is use Chargois to finish that inning only, which is what the numbers said he would do. (I'm not giving myself credit for getting most of this right ... just for doing all the work to look up the pitcher histories when I badly need to follow the advice underneath my name.) He next tries Kittredge for 2 innings, which he's never done on no rest, and that works in large part because he only threw 6 pitches in his first frame.
But he still needs to pick up 2 innings, and he decides to use Patino and Fleming for one each. Former works great, and I'm glad that the kid's last memory is of that inning than the one from the night before . Since Fleming has never pitched on B2B days, I thought he'd prefer to use him for just one batter. And Fleming gets Schwarber out and then gives up two hits! He ends up using Fairbanks for 4 batters (and 5 outs) rather than just an inning.
The other thing that the math got wrong is that Feyereisen only pitched 2/3 of an inning rather than one.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 12, 2021 13:09:26 GMT -5
He also called not using Wisler back to back days, he looked like the last option I spent a while despairing that anyone would ask Cash, "what were you thinking?" And then I figured it out, I think.
He announced that Wacha would probably be used, which would imply a bullpen game, and Baz as well when you did the days-rest math. Fooled me and everyone else. Including himself!
The plan was to announce McHugh as starter of an apparent bullpen game, but actually use him as an opener for McClanahan as a 4-inning bulk guy, on three days rest, and then come back with Baz on 4 days rest if they got to game 5. That explains why he stuck so long with McClanahan, which was otherwise a total mystery. Since he was going to use McHugh to get two innings anyway, naming him as the starter assures that Verdugo is in the lineup instead of Dalbec. And Dalbec had been getting the bat on the ball of 97+ heat for a while now. Lots of fouls just missing, and a few hard hit balls right at people.
My game formula had Wacha and Baz getting two IP each on their side-session day. That's probably where Cash started. The next thought is, Baz on full rest could give you 5 or 6 and set up a rested bullpen in game 5, so if I use McClanahan on short rest in this game, I come out ahead. I'm losing 2 innings of McClanahan, maybe even just 1, but I'm gaining 3 or 4 of Baz and staying away from Wacha entirely. I don't think his trust in Baz in game 5 was misguided; that guy has great stuff.
Cash had to be aware that guys sometimes get hammered pitching on three days rest (either without a side session, or on 1 days rest from one) and probably talked himself into taking the risk because of what the numbers show. But you can go hand-gliding or ice-climbing in bad weather and have a 95% chance of survival, and ... you don't go, because if you're wrong, you're dead.
He outsmarted himself. One fundamental difference between him and Cora is that Cora doesn't do that.
So, McClanhan goes 0.2 IP instead of 4. First thing Cash does is use Chargois to finish that inning only, which is what the numbers said he would do. (I'm not giving myself credit for getting most of this right ... just for doing all the work to look up the pitcher histories when I badly need to follow the advice underneath my name.) He next tries Kittredge for 2 innings, which he's never done on no rest, and that works in large part because he only threw 6 pitches in his first frame.
But he still needs to pick up 2 innings, and he decides to use Patino and Fleming for one each. Former works great, and I'm glad that the kid's last memory is of that inning than the one from the night before . Since Fleming has never pitched on B2B days, I thought he'd prefer to use him for just one batter. And Fleming gets Schwarber out and then gives up two hits! He ends up using Fairbanks for 4 batters (and 5 outs) rather than just an inning.
The other thing that the math got wrong is that Feyereisen only pitched 2/3 of an inning rather than one. Yeah, well, that three days' rest thing is a pretty damn big fly in the Chardonnay of this plan! I know you're just making an analogy there, but it's way more than a 5% chance of working out poorly in this situation.
The fact that the rest of the pitching staff gave up just 1 run in 8 IP makes it look all the worse. All he needed to do was not rush McClanahan into action and they'd be set up very well for a game 5 in Tampa.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 12, 2021 13:38:47 GMT -5
I hate to say it but the starters are window dressing. If you get something it’s a bonus. I wish Sale could go out the and do a Pedro. You just have to get to the dance. MLB says the MFYS are leaning towards bringing back the same crew. Thank you . A smart guy with an insane hairdo once said that doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results is a definition of insanity. I can imagine that this might test the patience and politesse of their fan base.
... and I'm loving every minute of it...
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 12, 2021 14:25:31 GMT -5
Yankee fans are more upset with Cashman than Boone I believe and I would be too if I were them.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 12, 2021 14:30:19 GMT -5
ericmvan...best part of your interesting post above
"He outsmarted himself. One fundamental difference between him and Cora is that Cora doesn't do that."
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Post by incandenza on Oct 12, 2021 14:32:09 GMT -5
Wait - I missed it at the time and only just saw the replay of Kiermaier throwing Verdugo out, and what the hell is everyone talking about?
And by everyone, I mean manfred and others, who called Verdugo dumb for running there (with where the ball was hit it was worth going for it, and it took a perfect throw to even make it close).
And Smoltz' call of the play, for repeatedly saying "right... there... his hand comes off the bag" (his hand never comes off the bag).
And the umpires' call (they got it wrong even after the review).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 12, 2021 14:38:35 GMT -5
Thank you. And I hope the series DOES start Friday, because a few days' rest for the troops/arms is fine, but too much layoff creates rust and destroys momentum. So if we start Friday, Eovaldi and ERod could start the first two in Houston on normal rest (rather than added rest.) Is this what everybody is expecting, or does Sale need to be tried early - maybe better in Houston than Boston? He's going to have a long layoff as it is, which may be good given his condition. Would we rather have ERod facing Houston there than in Fenway (G2 and G6). Under any circumstances I think I want Eovaldi starting G1 and G5 because that would allow him to appear in relief in a G7, if it goes that far. I hope that we start Sale in game 1 because he is our best pitcher. If he wasn't coming off of TJS and struggling as he has he would be, but this version of Sale is not their best pitcher. They spotted him against weak hitting teams coming back. Sale has gotten knocked out early his last two outings. When Sale is his normal self that would not happen. Next year he very well might be the Sox best pitcher, but I don't think that's the case right now. Wish it were. Wish he, Barnes, and Ottavino were more like themselves. Would take a lot of pressure off the other pitchers. I'd be surprised if anybody other than Eovaldi pitched Game 1 and E-Rod pitched Game 2. I would think Sale pitches Game 3 just in case Pivetta is needed for Game 1 or 2. Otherwise I'd think the Sox pitch Pivetta in Game 3 and Sale in Game 4.
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Post by curtisw on Oct 12, 2021 14:42:06 GMT -5
Loving the insightful posting today. As usual. Personally I just keep watching the replay of Kikè lifting that ball to left and scoring Santana. The roar of the crowd is just absolutely perfect and electric. Fenway is an absolute animal when it sounds like that. Hoping that energy continues in the ALCS. Anyway, a magical moment to be sure.
I think we do go Sale for game one. No reason to assume he will pitch poorly. He is bound to have some postseason success soon imo. His numbers this year are too good, and his BABIP is absurd as incandenza continues to note. Going to be a lot of fun come Friday.
Edit just to say I think we might to Evo for one, but it’s a coin flip for me. They will be starters 1 and 2 for us, in some order.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 12, 2021 14:46:14 GMT -5
I hope that we start Sale in game 1 because he is our best pitcher. If he wasn't coming off of TJS and struggling as he has he would be, but this version of Sale is not their best pitcher. They spotted him against weak hitting teams coming back. Sale has gotten knocked out early his last two outings. When Sale is his normal self that would not happen. Next year he very well might be the Sox best pitcher, but I don't think that's the case right now. Wish it were. Wish he, Barnes, and Ottavino were more like themselves. Would take a lot of pressure off the other pitchers. I'd be surprised if anybody other than Eovaldi pitched Game 1 and E-Rod pitched Game 2. I would think Sale pitches Game 3 just in case Pivetta is needed for Game 1 or 2. Otherwise I'd think the Sox pitch Pivetta in Game 3 and Sale in Game 4. The level of competition is a fair caveat about his regular season performance.
See my comment in the 'LCS Opponent' thread about his getting "knocked around" in his last two outings.
I think he suffers, in part, from super high expectations and (understandable) anxiety about his coming off of TJ. Eovaldi had an absolute stinker against the Yankees in their last regular season series, which by almost any standard was worse than Sale's last two outings, but no one thought it fairly reflected his ability. Whereas if Sale isn't Superman it makes people think "he must be broken..."
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Post by scottysmalls on Oct 12, 2021 14:50:48 GMT -5
Wait - I missed it at the time and only just saw the replay of Kiermaier throwing Verdugo out, and what the hell is everyone talking about?
And by everyone, I mean manfred, who called Verdugo dumb for running there (with where the ball was hit it was worth going for it, and it took a perfect throw to even make it close).
And Smoltz' call of the play, for repeatedly saying "right... there... his hand comes off the bag" (his hand never comes off the bag).
And the umpires' call (they got it wrong even after the review).
I think the argument that taking 3rd doesn't help much there since with two outs there's few situations he wouldn't have scored on a hit anyways, so the fact that it was close means it wasn't worth the risk. The announcers were driving me nuts though, and I agree he was probably actually safe even with the perfect throw.
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Post by curtisw on Oct 12, 2021 14:51:57 GMT -5
I just think the character of this team right now is such that they are really trust each other and picking each other up. Good baseball happens when these things are occurring. Guys don’t press too hard, they play loose they play with confidence. I am thinking this is going to help Chris relieve some of the pressure on himself, possibly. If anything can help him relax and just focus on doing his thing and not overthinking it, it’s this factor. I think it’s very possible we get a good 5 innings from him, maybe 1 or 2 runs. It would really help Chris I think if he doesn’t feel like he has to do it all himself but trusts the team will pick him up like they did in Tampa. We shall see. But I think the way the team is conducting themselves lately will help him settle down and deliver the results he is capable of, even if he is not 100%.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 12, 2021 15:11:39 GMT -5
If he wasn't coming off of TJS and struggling as he has he would be, but this version of Sale is not their best pitcher. They spotted him against weak hitting teams coming back. Sale has gotten knocked out early his last two outings. When Sale is his normal self that would not happen. Next year he very well might be the Sox best pitcher, but I don't think that's the case right now. Wish it were. Wish he, Barnes, and Ottavino were more like themselves. Would take a lot of pressure off the other pitchers. I'd be surprised if anybody other than Eovaldi pitched Game 1 and E-Rod pitched Game 2. I would think Sale pitches Game 3 just in case Pivetta is needed for Game 1 or 2. Otherwise I'd think the Sox pitch Pivetta in Game 3 and Sale in Game 4. The level of competition is a fair caveat about his regular season performance. See my comment in the 'LCS Opponent' thread about his getting "knocked around" in his last two outings. I think he suffers, in part, from super high expectations and (understandable) anxiety about his coming off of TJ. Eovaldi had an absolute stinker against the Yankees in their last regular season series, which by almost any standard was worse than Sale's last two outings, but no one thought it fairly reflected his ability. Whereas if Sale isn't Superman it makes people think "he must be broken..."
I wasn't that concerned about Eovaldi. He has had occasional stinkers which is why his ERA was 3.75 instead of 3. He had mechanical issues in which he said he never had a proper grip against the Yankees. He wasn't a guy just coming off the surgery nor was his velocity and command diminished the way Sale has been. That high fastball he threw Luplow didn't have the extra velocity Sale has when he's himself. Nor does he have command of his changeup either. Sale has his slider right now. That's it. Might work out for an inning, which is why I'm cool with the idea of him relieving for an inning here or there if they can do so safely with him. That's not to say I wouldn't give him a start. But to think he's going to go out and dominate the way Chris Sale has done when healthy is asking for a lot. At this point you'd have to be thankful if he gave you 2 runs 5 innings and consider that a success, but I'm not sure he can do even that at this point. I hope he can because if they are to keep advancing they will need that or they will wear out their pen in a way you can't get away with in a 7 game series like you can in a 5 game series. Eovaldi has been pretty consistent and is the one guy capable of going 6 or 7 innings in a start which is why I also think he's their best starter right now and not Sale, so you take your best chances with him in Game 1. E-Rod is either hit or miss. Lately he's had more hits than misses so I'd tab him for Game 2. I don't know that I prefer Pivetta as a Game 3 starter over Sale because you never know what you get with him either but the adrenaline that guy gets as a reliever has value and I suspect they'll wind up needing him at some point before Game 3 anyways, so I think if he gets a start it's Game 4. I think it's good that the Sox wrapped up the ALDS as quickly as they did so that Houck and Pivetta can get their rest and recharge hopefully for the ALCS.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 12, 2021 15:29:48 GMT -5
I'm starting to come around to the idea that the "Who the f knows who's gonna be on the mound in the fourth inning of any game" era of playoff pitching management is more fun than the old era, where it'd be kinda weird if your #3 starter didn't pitch into the 7th.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 12, 2021 16:06:59 GMT -5
Haha, you should change your screen name to Tony LaRussa. Hey, man… “I” played for him. He's always been too straight for me. A Hall of Famer for sure, no quibbles there. I've always had a negative opinion of attorneys anyways and he's one so that might have influenced my thought process.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 12, 2021 16:12:14 GMT -5
Wait - I missed it at the time and only just saw the replay of Kiermaier throwing Verdugo out, and what the hell is everyone talking about?
And by everyone, I mean manfred, who called Verdugo dumb for running there (with where the ball was hit it was worth going for it, and it took a perfect throw to even make it close). And Smoltz' call of the play, for repeatedly saying "right... there... his hand comes off the bag" (his hand never comes off the bag). And the umpires' call (they got it wrong even after the review).
I think the argument that taking 3rd doesn't help much there since with two outs there's few situations he wouldn't have scored on a hit anyways, so the fact that it was close means it wasn't worth the risk. The announcers were driving me nuts though, and I agree he was probably actually safe even with the perfect throw. I'll disagree. His hand definitely came off the bag while the glove was on his back. They showed it multiple times, I can't see how you don't see that but, you have to put two views together to get the timing right. Haha, on my big screen TV, it was about 10 inches off the bag. Re Smoltz, that's why the computer gods created mute.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 12, 2021 16:28:32 GMT -5
I think the argument that taking 3rd doesn't help much there since with two outs there's few situations he wouldn't have scored on a hit anyways, so the fact that it was close means it wasn't worth the risk. The announcers were driving me nuts though, and I agree he was probably actually safe even with the perfect throw. I'll disagree. His hand definitely came off the bag while the glove was on his back. They showed it multiple times, I can't see how you don't see that but, you have to put two views together to get the timing right. Haha, on my big screen TV, it was about 10 inches off the bag. Re Smoltz, that's why the computer gods created mute. I think the oven mitt hurt him. No grip. But I also think his wrist/forearm was still on the bag when his mitted hand slid across it. I also think his slid awkwardly (after diving late) because he didn't think it would be that close. It was really quite similar to the play that Renfroe made to end a game in September. Both runners were pretty shocked that there was even a play.
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Post by jmei on Oct 12, 2021 16:29:20 GMT -5
I hate to say it but the starters are window dressing. If you get something it’s a bonus. I wish Sale could go out the and do a Pedro. You just have to get to the dance. MLB says the MFYS are leaning towards bringing back the same crew. Thank you . A smart guy with an insane hairdo once said that doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results is a definition of insanity. I can imagine that this might test the patience and politesse of their fan base. ... and I'm loving every minute of it...
Side note, this is a commonly attributed Einstein quote, but there’s no real evidence that he did indeed say it. See here: quoteinvestigator.com/2017/03/23/same/
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 12, 2021 16:34:55 GMT -5
I suppose the fact that we see it differently pretty much defines not enough evidence to overturn the ruling on the field.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 12, 2021 16:35:27 GMT -5
Yankee fans are more upset with Cashman than Boone I believe and I would be too if I were them. Cashman has been Mr. Teflon for so long, it'll be interesting to see if he survives this.
He's done a lot of things right (like building a huge, diverse, successful development program) but he just can't resist trying to win every off-season by overpaying superstars for past performance and then having to work around huge albatross contracts for years and years.
I think if I was Junior Steinbrenner, I would tell him, "Yeah, you can keep your job Brian, but at half your previous salary." I wonder how long his contract is. Years remaining on his contract must be the only thing keeping him employed.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 12, 2021 16:42:33 GMT -5
Yankee fans are more upset with Cashman than Boone I believe and I would be too if I were them. Cashman has been Mr. Teflon for so long, it'll be interesting to see if he survives this.
He's done a lot of things right (like building a huge, diverse, successful development program) but he just can't resist trying to win every off-season by overpaying superstars for past performance and then having to work around huge albatross contracts for years and years.
I think if I was Junior Steinbrenner, I would tell him, "Yeah, you can keep your job Brian, but at half your previous salary." I wonder how long his contract is. Years remaining on his contract must be the only thing keeping him employed.
Google says 5 years 25 million dollar extension that Cashman signed in 2017 that expires after next year. I'd be surprised if they didn't offer him an extension for an extra few years or cut bait. I wouldn't want my GM with only one year left on it as a lame duck.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 12, 2021 16:45:10 GMT -5
I just think the character of this team right now is such that they are really trust each other and picking each other up. Good baseball happens when these things are occurring. Guys don’t press too hard, they play loose they play with confidence. I am thinking this is going to help Chris relieve some of the pressure on himself, possibly. If anything can help him relax and just focus on doing his thing and not overthinking it, it’s this factor. I think it’s very possible we get a good 5 innings from him, maybe 1 or 2 runs. It would really help Chris I think if he doesn’t feel like he has to do it all himself but trusts the team will pick him up like they did in Tampa. We shall see. But I think the way the team is conducting themselves lately will help him settle down and deliver the results he is capable of, even if he is not 100%. Maybe they got all of the bad not so loose play out of their system and have learned to overcome it and have fun. It's always fun when your averaging 15 hits a game.
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