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Non-Red Sox 2021 Playoffs
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 7, 2021 6:25:13 GMT -5
Why the hate for the Cardinals?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 7, 2021 6:49:08 GMT -5
are we still doing extra innings little league style in the postseason? No. No ghost runner at 2b to start the 10th inning. If I remember my playground rules correctly, a ghost runner is technically when there's no actual person running. The term I've seen is zombie runner - dead but there's still a body there.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,961
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Post by cdj on Oct 7, 2021 7:53:57 GMT -5
Why the hate for the Cardinals? Mostly their fans I’d imagine The Cards have given me a lot of happiness I know that much
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Post by incandenza on Oct 7, 2021 11:10:21 GMT -5
Why the hate for the Cardinals? They are insufferably dull. Year after year, they are anonymously bland, and just good enough to barely make the playoffs. Their fans' self-conception as brilliant sophisticates because they appreciate a good bunt or whatever is obnoxious. And the fact that they get a competitive balance pick despite having a fanbase that covers roughly the middle third of the country is one of the biggest frauds in sports.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 7, 2021 11:12:56 GMT -5
It's a shame those teams are playing in the NLDS. Those are clearly the two best teams in the NL, if not all of baseball. It's unclear that the Dodgers would have even made the playoffs this year if you swapped them and the Jays. The AL played .556 ball against the NL (167-133). There are other takes on the best teams. BR uses the SRS (simple rating system). And it is simple: the run differential and strength of schedule both play a part. How it's calculated isn't quite as simple: it's done iteratively with a set of 30 equations, one for each team that naturally involves all the other teams they've played. Each estimate for each team changes all the equations for the other teams. But their is a "fixed point" toward which the iterations converge. That gives you the SRS value for each team - using computing power of course. In that baseball-world view, the Dodgers had the best rating at 1.6 with the Rays at 1.3 and three coming in at 1.2: the Giants, Astros, and Blue Jays. The Red Sox come in at .6, behind the White Sox and Braves. I'd venture that the run differential had a large part in that rating. There were many times this season when the starters turned a nice lead over to the pen only to have that result in a tight win or one of the many losses they had in the second half. And the Jays certainly built up their rating on the back of endless blowouts they had. There's another column for luck (and you can sort on those columns with a click on the header). That's the difference between the actual results and the so-called pythagorean expectation. We could all think this through and come up with our best guess about that - without looking at the numbers - and, sure enough, Seattle was way ahead of the pack winning 14 more games than expected! No other team had more than 6 (NYY), and the Boston was at 4. The Blue Jays meanwhile, were near the bottom winning 8 games less than expected. Intuitively, that all seems to make sense.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 7, 2021 11:39:21 GMT -5
I don't think I'd give any 28 year old a 10 year / >300mm contract, even a Mike Trout. 🤷♂️ 4.2 bWAR in 122 games works out to money well spent. Only 11 more years... They paid for a guy who should be getting 8 WAR for the first few seasons anyway.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 7, 2021 12:08:34 GMT -5
🤷♂️ 4.2 bWAR in 122 games works out to money well spent. Only 11 more years... They paid for a guy who should be getting 8 WAR for the first few seasons anyway. Okay, just going to make one point on this... He does not need to be an 8-WAR player in the first few seasons. By his mid-30s we'll probably be looking at $10 million/WAR, right? Can he be a 3-WAR player at that stage in his career? Barring serious injury, and given the diversity of his skills, I think he probably will be. So I don't think the contract really becomes an overpay, in a $/WAR sense, until the last 3 seasons or so. A Pujols deal this is not.
There's always the risk of a Pedroia-type scenario, but if you're going to give a $365 million contract to anyone, it's a 28-year-old Mookie Betts.
(By the way, happy birthday Mookie!)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 7, 2021 12:33:13 GMT -5
No. No ghost runner at 2b to start the 10th inning. If I remember my playground rules correctly, a ghost runner is technically when there's no actual person running. The term I've seen is zombie runner - dead but there's still a body there. Yeah, ghost runner was more of a term we'd use as kids when we'd play 3 on 3 baseball and the bases are loaded but 1 of the 3 has to bat and you only have 2 teammates available to occupy the bases. So zombie it is. Lol
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 7, 2021 13:32:41 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Oct 7, 2021 13:40:37 GMT -5
Well the one on the right is obviously much better. Is that the new one or the old one?
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Post by aznpopsical on Oct 7, 2021 16:10:19 GMT -5
Honestly don’t get why guys don’t do what Brantley just did more, screw meaningless pride, getting that w is what matters
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 7, 2021 16:14:23 GMT -5
If I remember my playground rules correctly, a ghost runner is technically when there's no actual person running. The term I've seen is zombie runner - dead but there's still a body there. Yeah, ghost runner was more of a term we'd use as kids when we'd play 3 on 3 baseball and the bases are loaded but 1 of the 3 has to bat and you only have 2 teammates available to occupy the bases. So zombie it is. Lol The radio guys use "zombie" and attribute it to the Phillies radio booth. The logic was the guy died in the last inning and now he's back.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 7, 2021 16:15:25 GMT -5
The one on the left makes my eyes hurt.
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Post by aznpopsical on Oct 7, 2021 16:31:44 GMT -5
Can the white Sox even just put up a decent figut
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 7, 2021 16:36:43 GMT -5
🤷♂️ 4.2 bWAR in 122 games works out to money well spent. Only 11 more years... They paid for a guy who should be getting 8 WAR for the first few seasons anyway. He's going to need to produce about 40 WAR to make it worthwhile. The bottom line is he's a small guy who relies a lot on speed, so a late career decline might be earlier and steeper than most. Missing 40 games at age 28 due to injury also doesn't augur well. Either way he's getting paid, which was his primary goal (he made it quite clear that he didn't care whose fans he'd play in front of -- it's a business, you know). If he lasts long enough to make it to Cooperstown, his bust will have a Dodgers cap, not Red Sox. Thanks for the memories, Mookie. We hardly knew ye.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 7, 2021 16:41:26 GMT -5
It's unclear that the Dodgers would have even made the playoffs this year if you swapped them and the Jays. The AL played .556 ball against the NL (167-133). There are other takes on the best teams. BR uses the SRS (simple rating system). And it is simple: the run differential and strength of schedule both play a part. How it's calculated isn't quite as simple: it's done iteratively with a set of 30 equations, one for each team that naturally involves all the other teams they've played. Each estimate for each team changes all the equations for the other teams. But their is a "fixed point" toward which the iterations converge. That gives you the SRS value for each team - using computing power of course. In that baseball-world view, the Dodgers had the best rating at 1.6 with the Rays at 1.3 and three coming in at 1.2: the Giants, Astros, and Blue Jays. The Red Sox come in at .6, behind the White Sox and Braves. I'd venture that the run differential had a large part in that rating. There were many times this season when the starters turned a nice lead over to the pen only to have that result in a tight win or one of the many losses they had in the second half. And the Jays certainly built up their rating on the back of endless blowouts they had. There's another column for luck (and you can sort on those columns with a click on the header). That's the difference between the actual results and the so-called pythagorean expectation. We could all think this through and come up with our best guess about that - without looking at the numbers - and, sure enough, Seattle was way ahead of the pack winning 14 more games than expected! No other team had more than 6 (NYY), and the Boston was at 4. The Blue Jays meanwhile, were near the bottom winning 8 games less than expected. Intuitively, that all seems to make sense. The run differential has to be a huge part of it to have the Jays as twice as good as the Sox, and it's a demonstrable error to base the SOS adjustment on mostly expected wins. If you had to play 19 games against a team that was crazy good in the clutch, and lost games because of it, you have to factor that in.
I do mine (also iteratively) based on 50% actual results and 50% Base Runs W/L (or whatever I can find that comes closest). RS and RA still have a lot of noise relative to talent.
It's also easy to show that the game-by-game standard deviation of RS and RA is a big factor in W/L record, and it isn't random at all. Ideally, you'd find how the mean and SD of Base Runs RS and RA predicts W/L, and use that Win% as the actual team talent measure.
Oh, and there is also demonstrable effect of good relief pitching on "luck." Once you have an accurate "luck" figure, you can do derive a kick-ass formula for measuring the real bullpen effect.
It just occurs to me to try to do two separate adjustments, one for pure W/L and one for pure Base Runs W/L. The spreadsheet is already set up to do two separate calculations, so that wouldn't be that much trouble.
Finally, for post-season projections you of course have to use the current roster, with projected PT. And if you want to get artful about it, you look at every player, find the ones who have been better or worse statistically past a certain point, and then derive a weight for the altered performance versus the baseline. But this is actually a huge study designed to spot real, predictive changes in performance. Call it the J.D. Bautista affect. Looking at their projections for the year after their breakout is almost comical.
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Post by aznpopsical on Oct 7, 2021 16:57:35 GMT -5
The white Sox are gutless
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 7, 2021 17:34:10 GMT -5
This is the most uninteresting playoff baseball game that I've seen in a long time. What else is on until 8pm?
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 7, 2021 18:03:36 GMT -5
Alright, I had not watched Garrett Crochet pitch before. Holy crap he's gonna be good. He already is very good at age 22 after being drafted last year. First interesting thing in this game. Nasty, nasty fastball and slider with a very good change. 6'6" lefty starting out in the White Sox bullpen. I've heard this story before somewhere...
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 7, 2021 18:14:39 GMT -5
Why the hate for the Cardinals? They are insufferably dull. Year after year, they are anonymously bland, and just good enough to barely make the playoffs. Their fans' self-conception as brilliant sophisticates because they appreciate a good bunt or whatever is obnoxious. And the fact that they get a competitive balance pick despite having a fanbase that covers roughly the middle third of the country is one of the biggest frauds in sports. I lived in St. Louis for 3-4 years and went to a bunch of games. They are smart fans and are there to make their team do better. Not to boo and scream at the first sign of faltering, like every fan base in the northeast, who like to give their teams one more thing to overcome. I did appreciate that. I didn't find anyone there obnoxious at all. They were genuinely nice and would never talk sh** even though I wasn't a Cards fan. The only thing I couldn't get over is that everyone in St. Louis asks you where you went to high school, which makes no sense to me. The worst thing about St. Louis is their intolerance for foreign cars (big union city) and dislike of anyone who didn't drink Anheuser Busch products. But that wasn't a Cardinals thing. I had my Camry keyed (because it was built in South Carolina?). I do agree about the the competitive balance pick, but that's also not something to blame the fans for.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 7, 2021 18:47:13 GMT -5
So from watching that game, the White Sox are idiots with their plate discipline and don't have a chance in hell because the Astros will completely exploit it all series.
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Post by manfred on Oct 7, 2021 18:58:33 GMT -5
Only 11 more years... They paid for a guy who should be getting 8 WAR for the first few seasons anyway. He's going to need to produce about 40 WAR to make it worthwhile. The bottom line is he's a small guy who relies a lot on speed, so a late career decline might be earlier and steeper than most. Missing 40 games at age 28 due to injury also doesn't augur well. Either way he's getting paid, which was his primary goal (he made it quite clear that he didn't care whose fans he'd play in front of -- it's a business, you know). If he lasts long enough to make it to Cooperstown, his bust will have a Dodgers cap, not Red Sox. Thanks for the memories, Mookie. We hardly knew ye.
He is 20% there in his first 177 games with the Dodgers.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 7, 2021 19:00:14 GMT -5
He's going to need to produce about 40 WAR to make it worthwhile. The bottom line is he's a small guy who relies a lot on speed, so a late career decline might be earlier and steeper than most. Missing 40 games at age 28 due to injury also doesn't augur well. Either way he's getting paid, which was his primary goal (he made it quite clear that he didn't care whose fans he'd play in front of -- it's a business, you know). If he lasts long enough to make it to Cooperstown, his bust will have a Dodgers cap, not Red Sox. Thanks for the memories, Mookie. We hardly knew ye.
He is 20% there in his first 177 games with the Dodgers. The contract didn't start until this season.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 7, 2021 23:44:11 GMT -5
Really looking forward to the Giants/Dodgers series. They're kind of the West coast version of Sox/Yankees, even dating back to their New York roots. 1951 and 1962 were their biggest clashes so this has been along time coming.
I thought it was amazing when the 108 win Red Sox played the 100 win Yankees in 2018, and then they faced the 103 win Astros, so the rivals combined for 208 wins, and then the Sox and Astros combined for 211 wins.
Now a combined 213 wins as the 107 win Giants play the 106 win Dodgers who they were 10-9 against. Take that away and both teams were 97-46, nearly .690 ball. That 1 game season series advantage was the razor thin margin the Giants had over LA.
The Dodgers would win just about every day and still couldnt close their daily 1 or 2 game gap. I think they caught the Giants momentarily before falling behind again.
I just think it's incredible and look forward to see how it turns out. Too bad it's a best of 5 NLDS, rather than a best of 7 game NLCS.
According to the Pythagorean record the Dodgers actually underachieved. They should have won 109 games while the Giants overachieved and probably should have won 103.
The Giants got the best of the Dodgers in 1951 and 1962, but I think LA prevails in 5 games.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 8, 2021 6:11:51 GMT -5
Really looking forward to the Giants/Dodgers series. They're kind of the West coast version of Sox/Yankees, even dating back to their New York roots. 1951 and 1962 were their biggest clashes so this has been along time coming. I thought it was amazing when the 108 win Red Sox played the 100 win Yankees in 2018, and then they faced the 103 win Astros, so the rivals combined for 208 wins, and then the Sox and Astros combined for 211 wins. Now a combined 213 wins as the 107 win Giants play the 106 win Dodgers who they were 10-9 against. Take that away and both teams were 97-46, nearly .690 ball. That 1 game season series advantage was the razor thin margin the Giants had over LA. The Dodgers would win just about every day and still couldnt close their daily 1 or 2 game gap. I think they caught the Giants momentarily before falling behind again. I just think it's incredible and look forward to see how it turns out. Too bad it's a best of 5 NLDS, rather than a best of 7 game NLCS. According to the Pythagorean record the Dodgers actually underachieved. They should have won 109 games while the Giants overachieved and probably should have won 103. The Giants got the best of the Dodgers in 1951 and 1962, but I think LA prevails in 5 games. 1951 one of the most famous HRs in history:
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