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Qualifying Offers for the 2021-2022 offseason
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 12, 2021 14:53:24 GMT -5
Per buster Olney the QO for this offseason will be $18.4 million down from 18.9 last year. I dont know how likely Erod was to have accepted it before had it stayed same or increased and the same goes with the potential JD opt out and QO but obviously this would probably make it less likely the two were to accept.
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Post by agastonguay13 on Oct 12, 2021 15:06:47 GMT -5
Per buster Olney the QO for this offseason will be $18.4 million down from 18.9 last year. I dont know how likely Erod was to have accepted it before had it stayed same or increased and the same goes with the potential JD opt out and QO but obviously this would probably make it less likely the two were to accept. I mean, I was 100% down to offer Rodriguez the QO if was gonna be $20mil. Now I'd 110% make the offer. Best case, he signs elsewhere and you nab a pick, worst case, he's back on a 1 year "show me" deal for reasonable money. Mediocre case scenario, the offer lowers what teams are willing to offer him on the market and makes him more affordable should you chose to pursue a longer term deal.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 12, 2021 15:13:16 GMT -5
Per buster Olney the QO for this offseason will be $18.4 million down from 18.9 last year. I dont know how likely Erod was to have accepted it before had it stayed same or increased and the same goes with the potential JD opt out and QO but obviously this would probably make it less likely the two were to accept. I mean, I was 100% down to offer Rodriguez the QO if was gonna be $20mil. Now I'd 110% make the offer. Best case, he signs elsewhere and you nab a pick, worst case, he's back on a 1 year "show me" deal for reasonable money. Mediocre case scenario, the offer lowers what teams are willing to offer him on the market and makes him more affordable should you chose to pursue a longer term deal. This is exactly the way I've looked at ot with Erod. The downside to offering him the QO seems so minimal to me it's a no brainer.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 12, 2021 15:38:27 GMT -5
I've seen some lists of free agents. Is there a list which says which one cannot be offered a QO because of a 2021 trade or a prior QO? That would be nice to know.
Edit: e.g. Stroman cannot get one since he just got one. To replace JD with Schwarber and ERod with Stroman and pick up two extra picks would be sweet, along with the Fabian pick, even if the compensation picks are not as high as they used to be.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 12, 2021 15:43:14 GMT -5
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Post by kingofthetrill on Oct 12, 2021 18:37:21 GMT -5
Per buster Olney the QO for this offseason will be $18.4 million down from 18.9 last year. I dont know how likely Erod was to have accepted it before had it stayed same or increased and the same goes with the potential JD opt out and QO but obviously this would probably make it less likely the two were to accept. I mean, I was 100% down to offer Rodriguez the QO if was gonna be $20mil. Now I'd 110% make the offer. Best case, he signs elsewhere and you nab a pick, worst case, he's back on a 1 year "show me" deal for reasonable money. Mediocre case scenario, the offer lowers what teams are willing to offer him on the market and makes him more affordable should you chose to pursue a longer term deal. I think the actual worst case might be he signs elsewhere but doesn't sign until after the draft because teams don't want to give up a pick for him. Not that that would happen with E-Rod, but I think that happened with Kimbrel and I'm sure a handful of others.
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Post by saltalamacchia4mvp on Oct 12, 2021 18:39:34 GMT -5
I've seen some lists of free agents. Is there a list which says which one cannot be offered a QO because of a 2021 trade or a prior QO? That would be nice to know. Edit: e.g. Stroman cannot get one since he just got one. To replace JD with Schwarber and ERod with Stroman and pick up two extra picks would be sweet, along with the Fabian pick, even if the compensation picks are not as high as they used to be. Stroman only if we improve the defense. I think E-Rod declines the qualifying offer because you know some team is going to cough up the money given the limited supply of pitchers. He's not a stud by any means but I can see him getting 4-5 years in the 20 million dollar a year range, easily. I personally would let him walk and spread around the money a bit while giving guys like Whitlock, Houck, Seabold a shot. Building depth will be important as always.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 12, 2021 18:43:41 GMT -5
I mean, I was 100% down to offer Rodriguez the QO if was gonna be $20mil. Now I'd 110% make the offer. Best case, he signs elsewhere and you nab a pick, worst case, he's back on a 1 year "show me" deal for reasonable money. Mediocre case scenario, the offer lowers what teams are willing to offer him on the market and makes him more affordable should you chose to pursue a longer term deal. I think the actual worst case might be he signs elsewhere but doesn't sign until after the draft because teams don't want to give up a pick for him. Not that that would happen with E-Rod, but I think that happened with Kimbrel and I'm sure a handful of others. Worst case scenario is he accepts the QO and pitches like he did this year and is worth negative value which even so I believe worth the somewhat small risk. In your scenario he goes elsewhere and the Sox still have that 18.4 million to spend elsewhere.
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Post by soxinsf on Oct 12, 2021 19:29:33 GMT -5
I think the actual worst case might be he signs elsewhere but doesn't sign until after the draft because teams don't want to give up a pick for him. Not that that would happen with E-Rod, but I think that happened with Kimbrel and I'm sure a handful of others. Worst case scenario is he accepts the QO and pitches like he did this year and is worth negative value which even so I believe worth the somewhat small risk. In your scenario he goes elsewhere and the Sox still have that 18.4 million to spend elsewhere. The trade off is simple enough to understand. A. Do not offer ERod a QO, and he either walks or the Sox sign him back for less money. In this scenario, he is likely gone and the Sox chase a different free agent like Stroman. We get no compensation but we do not lose one by signing Stroman. B. This is the trickier option because It involves offering a QO without knowing Erod’s value in the 2022 marketplace and being stuck with him if he accepts. The downside is that he accepts and has another mediocre year. The potential upside is that he turns it down and someone signs him in time to earn a compensatory draft pick. And there is always the possibility that ERod finds his best form next year, in which case he is worth more than the QO. I question whether he is worth $18.4 mil based on this year’s performance. And I wonder if Bloom could use the 18.4 better if given the opportunity. We will know soon enough how the Sox see that calculus.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 12, 2021 19:49:25 GMT -5
Worst case scenario is he accepts the QO and pitches like he did this year and is worth negative value which even so I believe worth the somewhat small risk. In your scenario he goes elsewhere and the Sox still have that 18.4 million to spend elsewhere. The trade off is simple enough to understand. A. Do not offer ERod a QO, and he either walks or the Sox sign him back for less money. In this scenario, he is likely gone and the Sox chase a different free agent like Stroman. We get no compensation but we do not lose one by signing Stroman. B. This is the trickier option because It involves offering a QO without knowing Erod’s value in the 2022 marketplace and being stuck with him if he accepts. The downside is that he accepts and has another mediocre year. The potential upside is that he turns it down and someone signs him in time to earn a compensatory draft pick. And there is always the possibility that ERod finds his best form next year, in which case he is worth more than the QO. I question whether he is worth $18.4 mil based on this year’s performance. And I wonder if Bloom could use the 18.4 better if given the opportunity. We will know soon enough how the Sox see that calculus. Personally I take the shot and offer him the QO no matter what. Baseball reference has him at 6.1 WAR in 2019, 3 in 2018 but just 1.8 in 2017 and 1.9 this season. I want to say I read somewhere the value of 1 WAR in free agency is about 8 million. Do I think hes a 6 WAR pitcher? No probably not but I do think he's closer to a 3-4 WAR pitcher than the 1.9 season. Even if he does a 1.9 or so next year you're only overpaying by a small amount. If he hits that 2.5 and up the QO is solid value and possibly a bargain. Minimal long term downside with huge short term upside the way I'm looking at it. I may be way off though so as you say it won't be too long before we know what the sox may think about him. Also I will say I'm not very enamored with any of the other free agent pitchers. Guess I've never been a big Stroman fan though I can see the rationale and gausman the other big name had a 4.42 era in the 2nd half in what I consider a lesser division and league. Both of them will cost a heck of a lot more than 1 year 18.4 million in their contract. If he declines the QO and signs this offseason they get both a pick and the money back to spend elsewhere.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 12, 2021 20:06:40 GMT -5
Boy I really dislike bWAR for pitchers, which isn't doing much other than translating ERA to a different scale.
I don't suppose it would do any good to point out yet again that Eduardo actually pitched quite well this season, would it? The downside is not that Eduardo accepts the QO and pitches like he did this season - in that scenario the Red Sox have a solid #2/3 starter at a bargain rate. The downside scenario is that they offer the QO and he turns it down and signs with another team. In which case we at least get a draft pick.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 12, 2021 20:13:43 GMT -5
Admittedly I'm not exactly a sabr stat buff so was just using what I was able to Google. I would say maybe I'm still old school in ways but I personally would not call the way Eduardo pitched this year as a 2/3, more like a good number 4 starter. However that also illustrates why I want the QO offered. With the price of pitching these days 1 year 18.4 million for someone with the floor of a good number 4 and the upside of a good number 3 maybe even 2 isn't a bad price in my mind and leaves a lot of upside with absolutely no long term risk in case he is more number 4 than number 3 or 2 in his better years. As has been stated maybe he declines and they get an extra draft pick and draft slot money which also is a solid plus.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 12, 2021 20:30:58 GMT -5
I mean, I was 100% down to offer Rodriguez the QO if was gonna be $20mil. Now I'd 110% make the offer. Best case, he signs elsewhere and you nab a pick, worst case, he's back on a 1 year "show me" deal for reasonable money. Mediocre case scenario, the offer lowers what teams are willing to offer him on the market and makes him more affordable should you chose to pursue a longer term deal. I think the actual worst case might be he signs elsewhere but doesn't sign until after the draft because teams don't want to give up a pick for him. Not that that would happen with E-Rod, but I think that happened with Kimbrel and I'm sure a handful of others. I think E-Rod would be exposing himself to significant risk of getting the Kimbrel treatment, which is why he'll accept the QO. But I can easily see a scenario in which both the RS and E-Rod realize it's in their mutual interest to work out a reasonable long-term deal. I'd offer 4years/$52M and see what he says. He might find the lifetime security of a guaranteed $52M ($13M per year) attractive and the RS would be getting a pretty good SP through his prime years at a reasonable AAV. I wouldn't even mind seeing them go to 4 years/$15M.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Oct 12, 2021 23:50:03 GMT -5
I mean, I was 100% down to offer Rodriguez the QO if was gonna be $20mil. Now I'd 110% make the offer. Best case, he signs elsewhere and you nab a pick, worst case, he's back on a 1 year "show me" deal for reasonable money. Mediocre case scenario, the offer lowers what teams are willing to offer him on the market and makes him more affordable should you chose to pursue a longer term deal. This is exactly the way I've looked at ot with Erod. The downside to offering him the QO seems so minimal to me it's a no brainer. Exactly. Like what’s the worst that can happen if he takes it? We have another mid rotation starter on a 1 yr deal? The horror!
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 12, 2021 23:54:12 GMT -5
E-Rod would accept the QO in a heartbeat, more than doubling his salary to get a mulligan walk-year. Sure he was unlucky but 2021 was still far from a break-out year, which he could then hope for in '22, when the QO wouldn't be available. This is why I don't think it's offered this year, since it's a lot of money for a #2/3 starter who can walk for big bucks with no strings attached at age 30 if he breaks out in '22.
I think Eddie wants to stay with these teammates, so I foresee the two sides finding a middle ground of maybe 2 yrs/$30m with a player option for 1/$12m, which would allow him to either opt-out at age 31 as an established #2 or provide insurance in case of injury or decline. The player option would justify the relatively modest AAV on the first two years. If he performs well in the next two years and opts out, that's the time to lay the QO on him.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 12, 2021 23:58:11 GMT -5
Boy I really dislike bWAR for pitchers, which isn't doing much other than translating ERA to a different scale. I don't suppose it would do any good to point out yet again that Eduardo actually pitched quite well this season, would it? The downside is not that Eduardo accepts the QO and pitches like he did this season - in that scenario the Red Sox have a solid #2/3 starter at a bargain rate. The downside scenario is that they offer the QO and he turns it down and signs with another team. In which case we at least get a draft pick. He had the best fielding-independent pitching number of his career. I agree about the downside risk, that he refuses it and "only" gets the team a draft pick. The open question is how teams who might bid for his services view his health. Odds are he'd get at least one multi-year bid at more than that QO rate.
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Post by tjb21 on Oct 13, 2021 12:18:30 GMT -5
I've seen some lists of free agents. Is there a list which says which one cannot be offered a QO because of a 2021 trade or a prior QO? That would be nice to know. Edit: e.g. Stroman cannot get one since he just got one. To replace JD with Schwarber and ERod with Stroman and pick up two extra picks would be sweet, along with the Fabian pick, even if the compensation picks are not as high as they used to be. This is where I'm leaning too. Sign comparable players in FA, without QO's attached to them, while getting picks back. In theory it works.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 13, 2021 15:05:32 GMT -5
I think the new CBA will change the QO and compensation so it won't hurt the signing team. It negatively effected free agency more than I think anyone expected. Maybe it stays in the form of draft pick compensation, like the NFL, but it isn't going to cost a team draft picks and it never should have.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 13, 2021 16:13:37 GMT -5
E-Rod would accept the QO in a heartbeat, more than doubling his salary to get a mulligan walk-year. Sure he was unlucky but 2021 was still far from a break-out year, which he could then hope for in '22, when the QO wouldn't be available. This is why I don't think it's offered this year, since it's a lot of money for a #2/3 starter who can walk for big bucks with no strings attached at age 30 if he breaks out in '22.
I think Eddie wants to stay with these teammates, so I foresee the two sides finding a middle ground of maybe 2 yrs/$30m with a player option for 1/$12m, which would allow him to either opt-out at age 31 as an established #2 or provide insurance in case of injury or decline. The player option would justify the relatively modest AAV on the first two years. If he performs well in the next two years and opts out, that's the time to lay the QO on him.
Wow 2 yrs/$30m even with that modest player option would seem like a great deal, and much less than you would have to pay a replacement. That would be a great outcome for the team. Why wouldn't someone else beat that? One big unknown is that we just don't know whether they want to budget next year to be about $209M or $240M. We just don't know.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 13, 2021 16:17:20 GMT -5
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 13, 2021 19:55:39 GMT -5
E-Rod would accept the QO in a heartbeat, more than doubling his salary to get a mulligan walk-year. Sure he was unlucky but 2021 was still far from a break-out year, which he could then hope for in '22, when the QO wouldn't be available. This is why I don't think it's offered this year, since it's a lot of money for a #2/3 starter who can walk for big bucks with no strings attached at age 30 if he breaks out in '22.
I think Eddie wants to stay with these teammates, so I foresee the two sides finding a middle ground of maybe 2 yrs/$30m with a player option for 1/$12m, which would allow him to either opt-out at age 31 as an established #2 or provide insurance in case of injury or decline. The player option would justify the relatively modest AAV on the first two years. If he performs well in the next two years and opts out, that's the time to lay the QO on him.
Wow 2 yrs/$30m even with that modest player option would seem like a great deal, and much less than you would have to pay a replacement. That would be a great outcome for the team. Why wouldn't someone else beat that? One big unknown is that we just don't know whether they want to budget next year to be about $209M or $240M. We just don't know. The way that I look at it, from both sides, is that if he's good in those two years (which, by the way, would more than double his career earnings), that's obviously good for the team and it's 2 yrs/$30m plus a big fat contract coming after that when he hits the open market turning 31. If he's bad or injured, it's 3 yrs/$42m, which would be hard for Eddie to complain about if he's bad or injured (not great for the team but that's why the first two years are slightly below market, to offset this possibility).
Either way, I think this would be a structure that both sides would entertain, assuming they both want Eddie to be a Red Sox a little while longer, which I think both sides do. I also think that Chaim would prefer to use the QO on Eddie in a year when he's a slam dunk to reject it and be signed by another team regardless (like after 2023, in the "good" scenario outlined above). Even with his good peripherals, this year doesn't really seem like a slam dunk for that -- indeed, seems more like a slam dunk that he'd accept it and then you never get a draft pick back for him.
But like you say, there may not even be a QO in the next CBA or the cap might change or there might be a new salary floor or ...
EDIT: Why wouldn't someone else beat it? I'm seeing this as a situation where Eddie accepts a discount because he loves this group of teammates, so he doesn't go to the open market, postponing that move for a couple years. If he's not interested in that, I've really read him wrong for a lot of years.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 14, 2021 8:32:07 GMT -5
I think the new CBA will change the QO and compensation so it won't hurt the signing team. It negatively effected free agency more than I think anyone expected. Maybe it stays in the form of draft pick compensation, like the NFL, but it isn't going to cost a team draft picks and it never should have. Even if it does I can't see that affecting this offseason. The QOs need to be offered and accepted/refused before the CBA expires. They're not going to go through that process and then change it mid-offseason.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 14, 2021 9:18:53 GMT -5
Wow 2 yrs/$30m even with that modest player option would seem like a great deal, and much less than you would have to pay a replacement. That would be a great outcome for the team. Why wouldn't someone else beat that? One big unknown is that we just don't know whether they want to budget next year to be about $209M or $240M. We just don't know. The way that I look at it, from both sides, is that if he's good in those two years (which, by the way, would more than double his career earnings), that's obviously good for the team and it's 2 yrs/$30m plus a big fat contract coming after that when he hits the open market turning 31. If he's bad or injured, it's 3 yrs/$42m, which would be hard for Eddie to complain about if he's bad or injured (not great for the team but that's why the first two years are slightly below market, to offset this possibility).
Either way, I think this would be a structure that both sides would entertain, assuming they both want Eddie to be a Red Sox a little while longer, which I think both sides do. I also think that Chaim would prefer to use the QO on Eddie in a year when he's a slam dunk to reject it and be signed by another team regardless (like after 2023, in the "good" scenario outlined above). Even with his good peripherals, this year doesn't really seem like a slam dunk for that -- indeed, seems more like a slam dunk that he'd accept it and then you never get a draft pick back for him.
But like you say, there may not even be a QO in the next CBA or the cap might change or there might be a new salary floor or ...
EDIT: Why wouldn't someone else beat it? I'm seeing this as a situation where Eddie accepts a discount because he loves this group of teammates, so he doesn't go to the open market, postponing that move for a couple years. If he's not interested in that, I've really read him wrong for a lot of years.
No offense but what are you basing the he may take a club discount angle on? I've not seen nor read anything saying it's a possibility. There's almost a 0 percent chance he'd take a 2 year 30 million deal.
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Post by kcbosox on Oct 14, 2021 11:07:53 GMT -5
FWIW, why would he take a 2/30 if offered a QO? Giving up a second year for $11MM? There will be teams jumping to give 3/60 or even 4/75. Flawed, but a legit 2/3. PO experience and still chance to break out one more level with consistency (and no pitch-tipping). The question is whether he is worth 3/45 TO US. Or 3/90 for Sherzer (if he even would consider East Coast), Verlander, or Rodon (more likely $25MM/yr).
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 14, 2021 18:10:15 GMT -5
The way that I look at it, from both sides, is that if he's good in those two years (which, by the way, would more than double his career earnings), that's obviously good for the team and it's 2 yrs/$30m plus a big fat contract coming after that when he hits the open market turning 31. If he's bad or injured, it's 3 yrs/$42m, which would be hard for Eddie to complain about if he's bad or injured (not great for the team but that's why the first two years are slightly below market, to offset this possibility).
Either way, I think this would be a structure that both sides would entertain, assuming they both want Eddie to be a Red Sox a little while longer, which I think both sides do. I also think that Chaim would prefer to use the QO on Eddie in a year when he's a slam dunk to reject it and be signed by another team regardless (like after 2023, in the "good" scenario outlined above). Even with his good peripherals, this year doesn't really seem like a slam dunk for that -- indeed, seems more like a slam dunk that he'd accept it and then you never get a draft pick back for him.
But like you say, there may not even be a QO in the next CBA or the cap might change or there might be a new salary floor or ...
EDIT: Why wouldn't someone else beat it? I'm seeing this as a situation where Eddie accepts a discount because he loves this group of teammates, so he doesn't go to the open market, postponing that move for a couple years. If he's not interested in that, I've really read him wrong for a lot of years.
No offense but what are you basing the he may take a club discount angle on? I've not seen nor read anything saying it's a possibility. There's almost a 0 percent chance he'd take a 2 year 30 million deal. Right. I think Eddie’s fondness for his teammates could make him give the Sox a chance to match any offer, and he could leave a small amount of money on the table to re-sign here, but not a lot. I think he’s getting four years guaranteed.
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