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Qualifying Offers for the 2021-2022 offseason
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 14, 2021 19:27:03 GMT -5
FWIW, why would he take a 2/30 if offered a QO? Giving up a second year for $11MM? There will be teams jumping to give 3/60 or even 4/75. Flawed, but a legit 2/3. PO experience and still chance to break out one more level with consistency (and no pitch-tipping). The question is whether he is worth 3/45 TO US. Or 3/90 for Sherzer (if he even would consider East Coast), Verlander, or Rodon (more likely $25MM/yr). It's not 2/30 in a vacuum. It's 2/30 plus the player option, which is 3/42. Or make it 2/32 plus a player option of 1/13 if you want, which is 3/45. Either way, if he performs well, the 2/30 becomes 2/30 plus something like 4/80 when he hits the market after performing well in 2022-23. So he ends up with something like 6/110 overall (only the first 2/30 from BOS) if he performs well, and he gets 3/45 if he's bad or injured. No one's giving him close to 6/110 starting in 2022 but it could work out to that if he has a breakout.
The point is not the exact numbers, the point is that this would be done instead of a QO. From the Red Sox POV, this is not a good year to offer a QO, IMO, because it would almost certainly be accepted. Teams want to use the QO when it will get them a draft pick back, not to lock a guy into a 1-yr salary that's more than he's worth.
I also don't know about "teams jumping to give [ERod] 3/60 or even 4/75" based on one great season two years ago (6th in CY voting) and a couple not as great (although this year with good peripherals). I just looked at all free agents signed in the last two off-seasons. There were only three pitchers that signed in that general price range in the last two years: Dallas Keuchel (3/55), Madison Bumgarner (5/85) and Hyun Jin Ryu (4/80). That's a CY winner with a longer track record than Eddie, a WS legend, and the CY runner-up in his walk year, respectively. The market just ain't what it used to be if you're not a Scherzer/Strasburg/Bauer/Sale/Cole-level stud. Most pitchers were in the 7-figures, including guys like Wainwright, who signed for 1/5 and 1/8 the last two years, and Robbie Ray who signed last winter for 1/8. If it quacks like collusion...
GMs are going to try to find the "next" Robbie Ray -- a cheap, high-upside guy -- rather than pay the current Robbie Ray after he finishes in the top 3 in the CY this year. (Still don't think Eddie would accept the QO?)
The ideal situation for both sides is that Eddie performs well for the Red Sox for the next two years. Then, after the 2023 championship season, he's much more valuable on the open market than he is right now and that's when the Sox offer the QO, let Eddie go to the highest bidder, and get a pick back.
Obviously, it's not clear if/how long the QO system will still exist but if everyone is going to be that cautious, why would you want to overpay a guy at the QO rate when you don't even know if there will be a stoppage or what the future market will look like? Yet another reason why he's not getting a QO, IMO.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 14, 2021 19:29:47 GMT -5
The way that I look at it, from both sides, is that if he's good in those two years (which, by the way, would more than double his career earnings), that's obviously good for the team and it's 2 yrs/$30m plus a big fat contract coming after that when he hits the open market turning 31. If he's bad or injured, it's 3 yrs/$42m, which would be hard for Eddie to complain about if he's bad or injured (not great for the team but that's why the first two years are slightly below market, to offset this possibility).
Either way, I think this would be a structure that both sides would entertain, assuming they both want Eddie to be a Red Sox a little while longer, which I think both sides do. I also think that Chaim would prefer to use the QO on Eddie in a year when he's a slam dunk to reject it and be signed by another team regardless (like after 2023, in the "good" scenario outlined above). Even with his good peripherals, this year doesn't really seem like a slam dunk for that -- indeed, seems more like a slam dunk that he'd accept it and then you never get a draft pick back for him.
But like you say, there may not even be a QO in the next CBA or the cap might change or there might be a new salary floor or ...
EDIT: Why wouldn't someone else beat it? I'm seeing this as a situation where Eddie accepts a discount because he loves this group of teammates, so he doesn't go to the open market, postponing that move for a couple years. If he's not interested in that, I've really read him wrong for a lot of years.
No offense but what are you basing the he may take a club discount angle on? I've not seen nor read anything saying it's a possibility. There's almost a 0 percent chance he'd take a 2 year 30 million deal. Just everything I've read about and heard from Eddie over the years. Just my read of his mindset. Also, it's not 2/30 in a vacuum (see above reply to @kc).
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 14, 2021 19:40:08 GMT -5
No offense but what are you basing the he may take a club discount angle on? I've not seen nor read anything saying it's a possibility. There's almost a 0 percent chance he'd take a 2 year 30 million deal. Right. I think Eddie’s fondness for his teammates could make him give the Sox a chance to match any offer, and he could leave a small amount of money on the table to re-sign here, but not a lot. I think he’s getting four years guaranteed. So, what'll it take to keep him? Does 4 years/$13M a year do it? Do we have to go to 4 years/$15M a year? I'd be Ok with that. It's not the kind of crazy contract that I tend to rant against on this site. Even under the worst of circumstances (a long-term injury to E-Rod), the AAV wouldn't cripple the payroll. It's close to the AAV Pedroia has been getting and we still won the WS in 2018 and are in the ALCS this year.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 14, 2021 19:44:05 GMT -5
Right. I think Eddie’s fondness for his teammates could make him give the Sox a chance to match any offer, and he could leave a small amount of money on the table to re-sign here, but not a lot. I think he’s getting four years guaranteed. So, what'll it take to keep him? Does 4 years/$13M a year do it? Do we have to go to 4 years/$15M a year? I'd be Ok with that. It's not the kind of crazy contract that I tend to rant against on this site. Even under the worst of circumstances (a long-term injury to E-Rod), the AAV wouldn't cripple the payroll. It's close to the AAV Pedroia has been getting and we still won the WS in 2018 and are in the ALCS this year. Here's a list of starting pitchers who have gotten four years guaranteed in FA in the last two off-seasons: Zack Wheeler (5/118) Stephen Strasburg (7/245) Gerrit Cole (9/324) Madison Bumgarner (5/85) Hyun Jin Ryu (4/80) That's it, out of 33 starting pitchers signed. As much as I love Eddie, I don't see him getting there this off-season. (Also see above reply to @kc)
EDIT: The other reason I think he'd rather sign for 2 years plus a player option, rather than 4 years, is that in the former case, he's back on the market heading into his age 31 season, not his age 33 season. I just described a situation above where he turns 2/30 into 6/110 overall. I would say it's much less likely for him to turn 4/60 into 6/110 or better, particularly if he next hits FA at age 33.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 14, 2021 20:04:23 GMT -5
So, what'll it take to keep him? Does 4 years/$13M a year do it? Do we have to go to 4 years/$15M a year? I'd be Ok with that. It's not the kind of crazy contract that I tend to rant against on this site. Even under the worst of circumstances (a long-term injury to E-Rod), the AAV wouldn't cripple the payroll. It's close to the AAV Pedroia has been getting and we still won the WS in 2018 and are in the ALCS this year. Here's a list of starting pitchers who have gotten four years guaranteed in FA in the last two off-seasons: Zack Wheeler (5/118) Stephen Strasburg (7/245) Gerrit Cole (9/324) Madison Bumgarner (5/85) Hyun Jin Ryu (4/80) That's it, out of 33 starting pitchers signed. As much as I love Eddie, I don't see him getting there this off-season. (Also see above reply to @kc)
EDIT: The other reason I think he'd rather sign for 2 years plus a player option, rather than 4 years, is that in the former case, he's back on the market heading into his age 31 season, not his age 33 season. I just described a situation above where he turns 2/30 into 6/110 overall. I would say it's much less likely for him to turn 4/60 into 6/110 or better, particularly if he next hits FA at age 33.
While I still think your numbers are a tad low as I expect the QO to be offered as I dont believe one year 18.4 is more than Eddie is worth. I can't argue with the rationale after looking at that list of pitchers and what they signed for. He'd obviously not getting cole, Strasburg or wheeler money, I would not at all be surprised to see him get something in that bumgarner or Ryu range perhaps with an opt out after 2-3 years since as you point out if he performs well he can hit the market again at 30-31.
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Post by ghostofrussgibson on Oct 14, 2021 20:22:35 GMT -5
I'd make ERod the qualifying offer. If he takes it, it buys another year to see what youngsters break through and gives both sides another year of performance with which to base any future contract. If he turns it down, then we get a draft pick. And if he does a Kimbrel and holds off signing until it won't cost his new team a pick, then we still have youngsters to evaluate and could use ERod's monies to lock up our own player(s) longer term.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 15, 2021 7:00:48 GMT -5
Boy I really dislike bWAR for pitchers, which isn't doing much other than translating ERA to a different scale. I don't suppose it would do any good to point out yet again that Eduardo actually pitched quite well this season, would it? The downside is not that Eduardo accepts the QO and pitches like he did this season - in that scenario the Red Sox have a solid #2/3 starter at a bargain rate. The downside scenario is that they offer the QO and he turns it down and signs with another team. In which case we at least get a draft pick. It's infinitely better than fWAR, though. Differences in BABIP due to pitching skill are very real and not small.
The big disjunct in pitching bWAR vs. either offensive WAR is that bWAR includes sequencing and oWAR ignores it.
I personally think WAR should be two stats. WAR should be based on Win Probability Added, with proper adjustments for errors and such (if you single and a runner on first gets thrown out at 3B, the hitter gets the same WPA as he would if he fanned). Ideally, fielding WAR would use Statcast catch probabilities to credit and debit the defender and pitcher properly. You also need a ninth inning adjustment for relievers (they get the WAR they would get if games were 10 innings long, and the balance goes into a separate team bucket.)
There is also a philosophical issue with WPA. In a rally from 5 runs down with 2 outs, the first hit or walk gets almost no WPA at all, and yet it's absolutely necessary for tying the score (or going ahead)! Since all five runs were equally necessary to tie the score, you can also credit each hitter with their percentage of the total WPA of the rally, based on the run value of their PA. Without this adjustment, Dave Roberts gets too little credit for tying game 4, as measured intuitively. The difficult question is how much to weight the two ways of doing this ... although averaging them is an easy default. (Yes, they should be doing this already, doing it both ways).
Whether you adjust hitting WAR for defense, play-by-play, is a good question. We know that JBJ gets a massive contribution for the amazing catch of Mancini's walk-off homer in Baltimore ... but is it fair to credit Mancini with a walk-off-homer that actually didn't happen?
I think you do it both ways, for hitters and pitchers. It woud be interesting to know who was helped or hurt by defense, and by how much.
And WAR needs a a better adjustment for PT. It should really be value over Bench for regulars, plus the fact that the Bench talent is now being replaced by replacement-level players. I also think that replacement level (for the purposes of WAR only) might well be 1 standard deviation below the average of the replacement pool.
Oh, and you need to settle the position adjustment debate. Do you base it on the average offense at each position, or by the apparent difficulty of playing each position based on guys who split time between positions? I think you need to incorporate both. You need a good algorithm for smoothing the data across multiple years, too. Otherwise, half the replacement level players are ... below replacement level, and that seems odd.
The predictive stat is TAR, Talent Above Replacement. It would be based on the best possible analysis of Statcast data, starting with xwOBA, with study-based credit or debit for karma, both balls in play in situational performance. You also need to do very serious quality-of-opposition adjustments (those might belong in WAR as well), and you need to solve some philosophical issues with platoon players. Right now I'd say, devise an algorithm for platoon PT based on splits and normalize to that. IOW, if a LHB plays on a team where he has a great platoon partner and hence sees fewer lefties than the average hitter with his splits, you adjust by projecting how he would hit if he faced the average percentage. A guy who should be a platoon player but plays every day gets a boost. Note that this is not a "perfect world" adjustment; that there is a shortage of guys who hit pitchers of both sides is factored into the algorithm
You also need an algorithm for quick and slow hooks. These last two are removing managerial use or misuse from the talent equation.
And finally, you need a kick-ass set of algorithms for regression to the mean (which is what you do instead of a PT adjustment). The current methodology doesn't work at all.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,948
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Post by jimoh on Oct 15, 2021 7:04:28 GMT -5
So, what'll it take to keep him? Does 4 years/$13M a year do it? Do we have to go to 4 years/$15M a year? I'd be Ok with that. It's not the kind of crazy contract that I tend to rant against on this site. Even under the worst of circumstances (a long-term injury to E-Rod), the AAV wouldn't cripple the payroll. It's close to the AAV Pedroia has been getting and we still won the WS in 2018 and are in the ALCS this year. Here's a list of starting pitchers who have gotten four years guaranteed in FA in the last two off-seasons: Zack Wheeler (5/118)Stephen Strasburg (7/245) Gerrit Cole (9/324) Madison Bumgarner (5/85) Hyun Jin Ryu (4/80) That's it, out of 33 starting pitchers signed. As much as I love Eddie, I don't see him getting there this off-season. (Also see above reply to @kc)
EDIT: The other reason I think he'd rather sign for 2 years plus a player option, rather than 4 years, is that in the former case, he's back on the market heading into his age 31 season, not his age 33 season. I just described a situation above where he turns 2/30 into 6/110 overall. I would say it's much less likely for him to turn 4/60 into 6/110 or better, particularly if he next hits FA at age 33.
How do you look at Zack Wheeler's 5/118 and say Eddie will get 2/30 or 3/42? Eddie is a year younger, left-handed, has better K- rates, pitches in the league with the DH, has been pitching in Fenway which had a 103-109 park factor as opposed to Shea's 92-95, and has never had Tommy John. Overall Wheeler might have looked better, after 2019, but how much better?
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Oct 15, 2021 7:23:26 GMT -5
I don't see how Eovaldi's contract isn't the floor for Eddie (forgetting qualifying offer implications for a sec). Similar age, similar injury history, similar ceiling. While with the Rays in 2018 Evo was pitching about the same as Eduardo has this year.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 15, 2021 7:24:45 GMT -5
Here's a list of starting pitchers who have gotten four years guaranteed in FA in the last two off-seasons: Zack Wheeler (5/118)Stephen Strasburg (7/245) Gerrit Cole (9/324) Madison Bumgarner (5/85) Hyun Jin Ryu (4/80) That's it, out of 33 starting pitchers signed. As much as I love Eddie, I don't see him getting there this off-season. (Also see above reply to @kc)
EDIT: The other reason I think he'd rather sign for 2 years plus a player option, rather than 4 years, is that in the former case, he's back on the market heading into his age 31 season, not his age 33 season. I just described a situation above where he turns 2/30 into 6/110 overall. I would say it's much less likely for him to turn 4/60 into 6/110 or better, particularly if he next hits FA at age 33.
How do you look at Zack Wheeler's 5/118 and say Eddie will get 2/30 or 3/42? Eddie is a year younger, left-handed, has better K- rates, pitches in the league with the DH, has been pitching in Fenway which had a 103-109 park factor as opposed to Shea's 92-95, and has never had Tommy John. Overall Wheeler might have looked better, after 2019, but how much better? 5/118 may be a bit high for Eddie but I could very much see a scenario where Eddie goes to let's say San Diego for maybe 5 years 100+ and pitches like an ace or dang close. Meanwhile the sox sign someone like gausman or stroman who don't pitch as well in the AL East. Then sox fans are saying well why the heck didn't we sign Eddie instead. Pitching in the AL East is pretty dang hard compared to most if not all other leagues.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 15, 2021 7:26:18 GMT -5
I don't see how Eovaldi's contract isn't the floor for Eddie (forgetting qualifying offer implications for a sec). Similar age, similar injury history, similar ceiling. While with the Rays in 2018 Evo was pitching about the same as Eduardo has this year. I dont see them having similar injury history, eovaldi has had two Tommy John's. Erod has had knee surgery and complications from covid. So far knock on wood his arm/shoulder has been relatively healthy. I do agree with the rest of your post though and feel eovaldi deal is probably the floor for Eduardo unless Eduardo decides to bet on himself and take the QO and try and get a bigger deal next year.
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Post by agastonguay13 on Oct 15, 2021 8:08:04 GMT -5
I don't see how Eovaldi's contract isn't the floor for Eddie (forgetting qualifying offer implications for a sec). Similar age, similar injury history, similar ceiling. While with the Rays in 2018 Evo was pitching about the same as Eduardo has this year. I dont see them having similar injury history, eovaldi has had two Tommy John's. Erod has had knee surgery and complications from covid. So far knock on wood his arm/shoulder has been relatively healthy. I do agree with the rest of your post though and feel eovaldi deal is probably the floor for Eduardo unless Eduardo decides to bet on himself and take the QO and try and get a bigger deal next year. Precisely. It's not about whether or not the organization would consider the Eovaldi deal the floor, it's whether or not Rodriguez' camp would say "your organization gave Nathan Eovaldi $17mil•4 not 3 seasons ago.", and use that as a baseline plus inflation for what they'd expect. Starting pitching is a hot commodity, and Eduardo, while flawed, has appeal. Especially to middle of the pack teams looking to spend some cash and try to break into the playoff picture. If anything, one could argue that major injuries aside (TJ, myocarditis), Rodriguez has been the more durable of the two when you line their careers up with their free agency. The organization has almost definitely had at least preliminary discussions with his camp about what they'd want to offer to retain him moving forward, so it's safe to assume that since 1) no deal was struck, and 2) we heard no rumblings of negotiations, they're likely far apart on what it would take to make a deal. For me, if Rodriguez is willing to take a 2 year, $25-30mil deal, I do it in a heartbeat. But I just don't see that happening. #1, he's going to want to burn that QO asap so it doesn't have an influence on a later free agency (should it still exist) #2, the team giving him the QO indicates to him that at least one team thinks he's worth $18+mil/yr. The agent will take that and give it the <cap inflation-yearly raises-whatever other BS> treatment and say no to the QO, and your 2@$30mil is a slap in the face.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 15, 2021 9:34:46 GMT -5
I think Eovaldi's deal plus inflation, say 4/80, would be a bargain, and that some other team would match that.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 15, 2021 14:34:59 GMT -5
Here's a list of starting pitchers who have gotten four years guaranteed in FA in the last two off-seasons: Zack Wheeler (5/118) Stephen Strasburg (7/245) Gerrit Cole (9/324) Madison Bumgarner (5/85) Hyun Jin Ryu (4/80) That's it, out of 33 starting pitchers signed. As much as I love Eddie, I don't see him getting there this off-season. (Also see above reply to @kc)
EDIT: The other reason I think he'd rather sign for 2 years plus a player option, rather than 4 years, is that in the former case, he's back on the market heading into his age 31 season, not his age 33 season. I just described a situation above where he turns 2/30 into 6/110 overall. I would say it's much less likely for him to turn 4/60 into 6/110 or better, particularly if he next hits FA at age 33.
While I still think your numbers are a tad low as I expect the QO to be offered as I dont believe one year 18.4 is more than Eddie is worth. I can't argue with the rationale after looking at that list of pitchers and what they signed for. He'd obviously not getting cole, Strasburg or wheeler money, I would not at all be surprised to see him get something in that bumgarner or Ryu range perhaps with an opt out after 2-3 years since as you point out if he performs well he can hit the market again at 30-31. It only takes one GM to look at him and say his peripherals are nice and offer him something Ryu-ish. But I think the CBA uncertainty is going to dampen the (already soggy) market as a whole, as teams will want to wait for resolution before springing for multi-year contracts on players outside their orgs. That's why I think he takes the QO if it's offered, which is why I think it's not offered and Chaim instead tries to work out a bridge contract like the one I've described.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 15, 2021 14:38:15 GMT -5
I don't see how Eovaldi's contract isn't the floor for Eddie (forgetting qualifying offer implications for a sec). Similar age, similar injury history, similar ceiling. While with the Rays in 2018 Evo was pitching about the same as Eduardo has this year. Eovaldi was clearly a special case who got overpaid (based on his career to that point) based on his performance in the WS and his stature in the clubhouse.
Let's hope that Eddie rides the same road to a huge new contract.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 15, 2021 14:41:29 GMT -5
I'd make ERod the qualifying offer. If he takes it, it buys another year to see what youngsters break through and gives both sides another year of performance with which to base any future contract. If he turns it down, then we get a draft pick. And if he does a Kimbrel and holds off signing until it won't cost his new team a pick, then we still have youngsters to evaluate and could use ERod's monies to lock up our own player(s) longer term. The problem with offering a QO to him when he's likely to take it is that you can't offer it again. So then if has a big season in his mulligan walk year, you get nothing back for him when he leaves next year.
If you work out a short-term deal this year without using the QO, then you get something back in 2 years when he's much more likely to reject it (assuming he pitches well in those two years).
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 15, 2021 14:46:12 GMT -5
Here's a list of starting pitchers who have gotten four years guaranteed in FA in the last two off-seasons: Zack Wheeler (5/118)Stephen Strasburg (7/245) Gerrit Cole (9/324) Madison Bumgarner (5/85) Hyun Jin Ryu (4/80) That's it, out of 33 starting pitchers signed. As much as I love Eddie, I don't see him getting there this off-season. (Also see above reply to @kc)
EDIT: The other reason I think he'd rather sign for 2 years plus a player option, rather than 4 years, is that in the former case, he's back on the market heading into his age 31 season, not his age 33 season. I just described a situation above where he turns 2/30 into 6/110 overall. I would say it's much less likely for him to turn 4/60 into 6/110 or better, particularly if he next hits FA at age 33.
How do you look at Zack Wheeler's 5/118 and say Eddie will get 2/30 or 3/42? Eddie is a year younger, left-handed, has better K- rates, pitches in the league with the DH, has been pitching in Fenway which had a 103-109 park factor as opposed to Shea's 92-95, and has never had Tommy John. Overall Wheeler might have looked better, after 2019, but how much better? It's because he's younger. This is why I could see him accepting a 2 year bridge deal, so he can get back to the market at age 31 if he performs well (and perhaps turn it into Wheeler money). The 3/42 is only in the case of injury/poor performance (player options also tend to reduce AAVs). I'm also postulating that he takes this deal to stay with the Sox for two more years to boost his value and wouldn't take it from anyone else. I'm not saying his market is 2/30 or 3/42. Just saying I doubt, based on recent market trends (not to mention the CBA uncertainty), that Eddie gets 4 years this time around. Wheeler also had louder tools than ERod has, with the second fastest FB and 90th percentile of weak contact in his walk year. He also had a terrible defense behind him, like ERod. Just checked Wheeler's fWAR from his two years prior to FA; they were 4.6 and 4.2. Eddie's last two years of fWAR are 3.8 and 3.7. Very good but not quite Wheeler (whose fWAR was 7.3 this year). I guess we'll see how it plays out. I think I've explained my take as much as I can at this point. Here's hoping that Eddie is the 2021 WS hero with a performance that blows his value sky high.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 15, 2021 14:46:26 GMT -5
Boy I really dislike bWAR for pitchers, which isn't doing much other than translating ERA to a different scale. I don't suppose it would do any good to point out yet again that Eduardo actually pitched quite well this season, would it? The downside is not that Eduardo accepts the QO and pitches like he did this season - in that scenario the Red Sox have a solid #2/3 starter at a bargain rate. The downside scenario is that they offer the QO and he turns it down and signs with another team. In which case we at least get a draft pick. It's infinitely better than fWAR, though. Differences in BABIP due to pitching skill are very real and not small.
The big disjunct in pitching bWAR vs. either offensive WAR is that bWAR includes sequencing and oWAR ignores it.
I personally think WAR should be two stats. WAR should be based on Win Probability Added, with proper adjustments for errors and such (if you single and a runner on first gets thrown out at 3B, the hitter gets the same WPA as he would if he fanned). Ideally, fielding WAR would use Statcast catch probabilities to credit and debit the defender and pitcher properly. You also need a ninth inning adjustment for relievers (they get the WAR they would get if games were 10 innings long, and the balance goes into a separate team bucket.)
There is also a philosophical issue with WPA. In a rally from 5 runs down with 2 outs, the first hit or walk gets almost no WPA at all, and yet it's absolutely necessary for tying the score (or going ahead)! Since all five runs were equally necessary to tie the score, you can also credit each hitter with their percentage of the total WPA of the rally, based on the run value of their PA. Without this adjustment, Dave Roberts gets too little credit for tying game 4, as measured intuitively. The difficult question is how much to weight the two ways of doing this ... although averaging them is an easy default. (Yes, they should be doing this already, doing it both ways).
Whether you adjust hitting WAR for defense, play-by-play, is a good question. We know that JBJ gets a massive contribution for the amazing catch of Mancini's walk-off homer in Baltimore ... but is it fair to credit Mancini with a walk-off-homer that actually didn't happen?
I think you do it both ways, for hitters and pitchers. It woud be interesting to know who was helped or hurt by defense, and by how much.
And WAR needs a a better adjustment for PT. It should really be value over Bench for regulars, plus the fact that the Bench talent is now being replaced by replacement-level players. I also think that replacement level (for the purposes of WAR only) might well be 1 standard deviation below the average of the replacement pool.
Oh, and you need to settle the position adjustment debate. Do you base it on the average offense at each position, or by the apparent difficulty of playing each position based on guys who split time between positions? I think you need to incorporate both. You need a good algorithm for smoothing the data across multiple years, too. Otherwise, half the replacement level players are ... below replacement level, and that seems odd.
The predictive stat is TAR, Talent Above Replacement. It would be based on the best possible analysis of Statcast data, starting with xwOBA, with study-based credit or debit for karma, both balls in play in situational performance. You also need to do very serious quality-of-opposition adjustments (those might belong in WAR as well), and you need to solve some philosophical issues with platoon players. Right now I'd say, devise an algorithm for platoon PT based on splits and normalize to that. IOW, if a LHB plays on a team where he has a great platoon partner and hence sees fewer lefties than the average hitter with his splits, you adjust by projecting how he would hit if he faced the average percentage. A guy who should be a platoon player but plays every day gets a boost. Note that this is not a "perfect world" adjustment; that there is a shortage of guys who hit pitchers of both sides is factored into the algorithm
You also need an algorithm for quick and slow hooks. These last two are removing managerial use or misuse from the talent equation.
And finally, you need a kick-ass set of algorithms for regression to the mean (which is what you do instead of a PT adjustment). The current methodology doesn't work at all. This is a great post! A few more things to add about things that should be changed. 1) catcher WAR is completely broken still. 2) position flexibility resulting in needing less dedicated roster spots needs to be accounted for somehow. You cannot just compare the short end of a strict platoon to a player able to play 7 positions at an average to elite level using the same methodology. Or even 2-way players. Having an extra roster spot and a lot more position flexibility is gold to a team. Bloom obviously understands that it's the new market inefficiency. (probably not anymore) Kiké Hernandez was worth more to the Red Sox than his 4 fWAR.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 15, 2021 14:49:09 GMT -5
While I still think your numbers are a tad low as I expect the QO to be offered as I dont believe one year 18.4 is more than Eddie is worth. I can't argue with the rationale after looking at that list of pitchers and what they signed for. He'd obviously not getting cole, Strasburg or wheeler money, I would not at all be surprised to see him get something in that bumgarner or Ryu range perhaps with an opt out after 2-3 years since as you point out if he performs well he can hit the market again at 30-31. It only takes one GM to look at him and say his peripherals are nice and offer him something Ryu-ish. But I think the CBA uncertainty is going to dampen the (already soggy) market as a whole, as teams will want to wait for resolution before springing for multi-year contracts on players outside their orgs. That's why I think he takes the QO if it's offered, which is why I think it's not offered and Chaim instead tries to work out a bridge contract like the one I've described. I dont see why you think you don't offer someone a QO if the team expects them to take. We've seen many teams offer a guy the QO and then have it accepted.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 15, 2021 14:51:28 GMT -5
Some people on this board are going to be shocked at how much ERod gets. (I am foolishly assuming that contracts will be signed as usual)
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,948
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Post by jimoh on Oct 15, 2021 15:06:16 GMT -5
How do you look at Zack Wheeler's 5/118 and say Eddie will get 2/30 or 3/42? Eddie is a year younger, left-handed, has better K- rates, pitches in the league with the DH, has been pitching in Fenway which had a 103-109 park factor as opposed to Shea's 92-95, and has never had Tommy John. Overall Wheeler might have looked better, after 2019, but how much better? It's because he's younger. This is why I could see him accepting a 2 year bridge deal, so he can get back to the market at age 31 if he performs well (and perhaps turn it into Wheeler money). The 3/42 is only in the case of injury/poor performance (player options also tend to reduce AAVs). [..] Younger guy gets offered the younger contract. Isn't that the rule? You seem to be thinking about what would be fair, and not what the market will say. Are you counting 2021 as not a good year? Because statistically, it's a pretty good year. Most teams would think it's an impressive year. And it only takes one.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 15, 2021 16:19:50 GMT -5
It only takes one GM to look at him and say his peripherals are nice and offer him something Ryu-ish. But I think the CBA uncertainty is going to dampen the (already soggy) market as a whole, as teams will want to wait for resolution before springing for multi-year contracts on players outside their orgs. That's why I think he takes the QO if it's offered, which is why I think it's not offered and Chaim instead tries to work out a bridge contract like the one I've described. I dont see why you think you don't offer someone a QO if the team expects them to take. We've seen many teams offer a guy the QO and then have it accepted. Because if he accepts it, you can't offer it again and when he walks the next year you're left standing there with your fly down. I bet Zahdi wishes he hadn't given Gausman the QO last year and worked something else out instead.
I think it behooves Chaim to try to get a bridge deal done, so he doesn't have to use the QO this year, and I think it favors Eddie if he is inclined to bet on himself.
A 4-year deal this year is not going to be as lucrative as a 4-year deal in two years, if he continues to pitch well (or even breaks out) between now and then.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 15, 2021 16:25:16 GMT -5
I dont see why you think you don't offer someone a QO if the team expects them to take. We've seen many teams offer a guy the QO and then have it accepted. Because if he accepts it, you can't offer it again and when he walks the next year you're left standing there with your fly down. I bet Zahdi wishes he hadn't given Gausman the QO last year and worked something else out instead.
I think it behooves Chaim to try to get a bridge deal done, so he doesn't have to use the QO this year, and I think it favors Eddie if he is inclined to bet on himself.
A 4-year deal this year is not going to be as lucrative as a 4-year deal in two years, if he continues to pitch well (or even breaks out) between now and then.
If they don't offer it, they could lose him for nothing. There's no way in hell you save a QO just in case something very specific happens. I'm absolutely certain that it's offered and will guess that they agree to a 4/$80M contract before the QO deadline. But predicting contracts is just about impossible when the CBA is unknown. Part of me thinks no contracts will be signed until there's a CBA.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 15, 2021 17:19:32 GMT -5
I dont see why you think you don't offer someone a QO if the team expects them to take. We've seen many teams offer a guy the QO and then have it accepted. Because if he accepts it, you can't offer it again and when he walks the next year you're left standing there with your fly down. I bet Zahdi wishes he hadn't given Gausman the QO last year and worked something else out instead.
I think it behooves Chaim to try to get a bridge deal done, so he doesn't have to use the QO this year, and I think it favors Eddie if he is inclined to bet on himself.
A 4-year deal this year is not going to be as lucrative as a 4-year deal in two years, if he continues to pitch well (or even breaks out) between now and then.
And if/when he signs somewhere for more than that bridge deal you're throwing out and they didn't offer the QO they get nothing for him. Sorry but I don't think that angle you're saying makes any sense. Chances are if Eddie would take a deal like that the Sox would have already signed him to it.
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Post by tyler3 on Oct 17, 2021 10:51:11 GMT -5
Here is another way down the road scenario. Say JD does not opt and has a good year. Say Kiké plays center field full time next year and continues to excel. And Eovoldi puts up another good year. Sheesh and Xander does his thingâ¦. Is that math correct guys⦠possibly 4 QOs right. Now the labor showdown who knows what happens there, but it seems to me the 2023 may be the QO year. This year Kiké and Xander 4.9 War, Eovoldi 4.6, JD at 3. If the others hold serve an JD slightly improved I could see this.
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