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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 17, 2021 11:11:57 GMT -5
Some people on this board are going to be shocked at how much ERod gets. (I am foolishly assuming that contracts will be signed as usual) I was thinking the same thing!! I think he is going to be a horse for the Sox or someone else for the next 5 years. Of course I could be wrong and he nevers takes that next step but I hope the Sox guess right. His value is hard to pinpoint but it is more than many think it is and he still has room to grow, IMO.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 17, 2021 11:52:07 GMT -5
How do you look at Zack Wheeler's 5/118 and say Eddie will get 2/30 or 3/42? Eddie is a year younger, left-handed, has better K- rates, pitches in the league with the DH, has been pitching in Fenway which had a 103-109 park factor as opposed to Shea's 92-95, and has never had Tommy John. Overall Wheeler might have looked better, after 2019, but how much better? It's because he's younger. This is why I could see him accepting a 2 year bridge deal, so he can get back to the market at age 31 if he performs well (and perhaps turn it into Wheeler money). The 3/42 is only in the case of injury/poor performance (player options also tend to reduce AAVs). I'm also postulating that he takes this deal to stay with the Sox for two more years to boost his value and wouldn't take it from anyone else. I'm not saying his market is 2/30 or 3/42. Just saying I doubt, based on recent market trends (not to mention the CBA uncertainty), that Eddie gets 4 years this time around. Wheeler also had louder tools than ERod has, with the second fastest FB and 90th percentile of weak contact in his walk year. He also had a terrible defense behind him, like ERod. Just checked Wheeler's fWAR from his two years prior to FA; they were 4.6 and 4.2. Eddie's last two years of fWAR are 3.8 and 3.7. Very good but not quite Wheeler (whose fWAR was 7.3 this year). I guess we'll see how it plays out. I think I've explained my take as much as I can at this point. Here's hoping that Eddie is the 2021 WS hero with a performance that blows his value sky high. You make fair points why he doesn't get a Wheeler deal, which I don't think anyone thought he gets that. I'll give you points for being creative, yet given those war numbers, 30 plus starts his last two years and his age I think you're way low. You chase the big deals when you can get them. If he's taking a bridge deal why not one year? I'd offer five years 85 million and feel darn good about it. I'm also not offering opt outs.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 17, 2021 12:29:04 GMT -5
Some people on this board are going to be shocked at how much ERod gets. (I am foolishly assuming that contracts will be signed as usual) No doubt. He had the best K rate of his career, his home run rate is still at about 1.1, he had a very good FIP, and the BABIP was .364 which is way above normal. Batters had hitting luck against him.
Even though he's 28, he only has a liittle more than 850 innings of ML wear on his arm. All of that argues for a decent contract of 4-5 years at a rate that beats the QO I believe.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 17, 2021 12:39:16 GMT -5
People just need to be BABIP-pilled to see that Eduardo has been *incredibly consistent* throughout the last several years of his career, with a bit of an improving trend. He's also been healthy (with the one obvious and non-predictive fluky exception) and as Norm points out has a good chance to age well. He's also still young enough that he still might find another level to reach, much as a guy like Gausman did at age 29.
To think that some team wouldn't offer him a significant multi-year deal is frankly out of touch with how teams evaluate pitchers these days. The only conceivable short-term scenario is that he might accept a QO just to take that burden off his free agent value next season.
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Post by taiwansox on Oct 20, 2021 20:18:29 GMT -5
Sign Manny Pina to replace Vazquez this offseason
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 7, 2021 8:12:25 GMT -5
Clocks ticking on ERod, would've thought he would've been given the QO by now...
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Nov 7, 2021 8:54:07 GMT -5
Clocks ticking on ERod, would've thought he would've been given the QO by now... Bloom's decisions seems to always come in right before the deadline. QO, 40 man deadline, trade deadline all feels like they are announced 1 minute before his time is up. I used to think it was because he was working on some pretty far out deals but now it just feels like he's that smart kid in class who can procrastinate to the last minute and still get an A+.
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Post by fanofredsox on Nov 7, 2021 10:27:31 GMT -5
I don't think the Red Sox are going to be giving out qualifying offers to anybody. Not E. Rod & not JD if he opts out.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 7, 2021 10:32:53 GMT -5
I don't think the Red Sox are going to be giving out qualifying offers to anybody. Not E. Rod & not JD if he opts out. I've never wanted to bet money so bad as on this question of whether the Red Sox give a QO to Eduardo, which is definitely going to happen.
Just recently Alex Speier had an article with anonymous quotes calling it a "no-brainer" and basically treating it as a fait accompli. And the logic is so clear: if he accepts it they have him for a year at below-market value; if he turns it down they gain an advantage over other teams in working out a multi-year deal because of the draft pick cost; if he signs elsewhere they get the draft pick. No downside at all.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 7, 2021 10:38:21 GMT -5
Clocks ticking on ERod, would've thought he would've been given the QO by now... If they're negotiating, what's the rush? Making the offer right at the deadline or before it doesn't matter at all.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 7, 2021 10:43:34 GMT -5
Clocks ticking on ERod, would've thought he would've been given the QO by now... If they're negotiating, what's the rush? Making the offer right at the deadline or before it doesn't matter at all. I mean, it's not a rush per se, but we saw the Braves say with Freeman (obviously a different caliber player) that they're extending him the QO as they negotiate further
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 7, 2021 10:56:27 GMT -5
If they're negotiating, what's the rush? Making the offer right at the deadline or before it doesn't matter at all. I mean, it's not a rush per se, but we saw the Braves say with Freeman (obviously a different caliber player) that they're extending him the QO as they negotiate further Some things really just don't need to be stated as they are accepted as fact or obviously going to happen. Freeman and ERod are at different levels but the decisions are still no brainers. Is their an actual advantage to putting things on the record, not sure but this does seem to be Chaims method to take all the time available.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 7, 2021 11:44:19 GMT -5
I mean, it's not a rush per se, but we saw the Braves say with Freeman (obviously a different caliber player) that they're extending him the QO as they negotiate further Some things really just don't need to be stated as they are accepted as fact or obviously going to happen. Freeman and ERod are at different levels but the decisions are still no brainers. Is their an actual advantage to putting things on the record, not sure but this does seem to be Chaims method to take all the time available. From the Braves standpoint, I think the benefit is for leverage while negotiating against Freeman. The threat of extending the QO isn't quite as beneficial as actually doing it. That said, any gain is minimal with all players knowing the outcome. But I think Bloom is playing the better long-game by not offering until the deadline. If you get into a habit of offering the QO early, then the players who aren't getting the QO will know while you're trying to negotiate with them and they can use that knowledge to hold until free agency.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 7, 2021 11:51:08 GMT -5
Some things really just don't need to be stated as they are accepted as fact or obviously going to happen. Freeman and ERod are at different levels but the decisions are still no brainers. Is their an actual advantage to putting things on the record, not sure but this does seem to be Chaims method to take all the time available. From the Braves standpoint, I think the benefit is for leverage while negotiating against Freeman. The threat of extending the QO isn't quite as beneficial as actually doing it. That said, any gain is minimal with all players knowing the outcome. But I think Bloom is playing the better long-game by not offering until the deadline. If you get into a habit of offering the QO early, then the players who aren't getting the QO will know while you're trying to negotiate with them and they can use that knowledge to hold until free agency. I don't think 10am vs 5pm is really offering the QO early
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Post by orion09 on Nov 7, 2021 17:16:05 GMT -5
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