SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Red Sox vs. Astros 2021 ALCS Gameday Thread
|
Post by incandenza on Oct 13, 2021 12:28:53 GMT -5
I wonder if this will be the first playoff round where the broadcasters and national media aren't palpably rooting for the Red Sox' opponent? They come in as the undersogs and are putting together kind of a nice phoenix rising narrative, while the Astros still have a whiff of that trash can stink about them...
|
|
|
Post by saltalamacchia4mvp on Oct 13, 2021 12:28:58 GMT -5
Split the first two games, win two in Boston, and go back to Houston with a 3-2 lead and see what happens.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Oct 13, 2021 12:34:07 GMT -5
Pretty impressive that he managed to get 9 Ks in 3.1 innings without being able to throw strikes.
ADD: Yeah, what jmei said. And also, I watched the Washington start. That was just a case of straight-up bad BABIP luck. Other than the 1.000 BABIP, he made 7 outs on Ks. Almost teice as many Ks as balls in play! He did have 3 BBs, so he wasn't perfect, but still, if you actually watched that game, you didn't see a poor performance - much like with Rodriguez's 7-game stretch of bad luck in May and June, which people nonetheless find it impossible to believe was caused by a bunch of bloops and ridiculously cheap homers (the game in Houston, by the way, beind the absolute apex of that dumb little stretch for him).
As for his start against TB, one makable play by his infield defense and he would probably have gotten out of the inning. Instead he got BABIP's again, and then a guy hit a homer on a fastball that was probably placed in the exact spot Sale wanted it.
I know I know. It can’t be that Sale was lousy. It has to be that Mercury was in retrograde or some other pretzel logic to explain how he was actually really good. I’m not buying it. I think he’s cooked this year. But I sure hope that I am wrong. I agree with you that if you just hand wave away the actual argument, then there isn't a good argument for why Sale was unlucky.
Anyway, I've said my piece about it. If you only want to tolerate statements of gut feeling, my gut feeling is that Sale pitches well in this series. I won't argue with anyone who trusts Eovaldi more, but beyond that it's Sale for me.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 13, 2021 12:37:15 GMT -5
Pretty impressive that he managed to get 9 Ks in 3.1 innings without being able to throw strikes. ADD: Yeah, what jmei said. And also, I watched the Washington start. That was just a case of straight-up bad BABIP luck. Other than the 1.000 BABIP, he made 7 outs on Ks. Almost teice as many Ks as balls in play! He did have 3 BBs, so he wasn't perfect, but still, if you actually watched that game, you didn't see a poor performance - much like with Rodriguez's 7-game stretch of bad luck in May and June, which people nonetheless find it impossible to believe was caused by a bunch of bloops and ridiculously cheap homers (the game in Houston, by the way, beind the absolute apex of that dumb little stretch for him). As for his start against TB, one makable play by his infield defense and he would probably have gotten out of the inning. Instead he got BABIP's again, and then a guy hit a homer on a fastball that was probably placed in the exact spot Sale wanted it.
I know I know. It can’t be that Sale was lousy. It has to be that Mercury was in retrograde or some other pretzel logic to explain how he was actually really good. I’m not buying it. I think he’s cooked this year. But I sure hope that I am wrong. A .900 BABIP or 1.000 BABIP sounds crazy but then again it's not like those were bloopers. They were hard hit line drives, legit basehits, not a cheapie like the bloop double E-Rod gave up before departing Game 4. I saw that he has 4 HBP. That's not like Sale when he's right. His control is so pinpoint he doesn't hit batters. Put it to you like this. I'm not giving up on Sale because I know they're working with him. Maybe they're seeing something that's making him pitch a lot worse than when he first came back. I think the expectation that he's going to go out and pitch like vintage Sale is silly. He average 4 and 2/3 innings per start. He doesn't go deep into games at this point. But what's the alternative to pitching Sale? Start Martin Perez? I'll take my chances with Sale and hope they found something mechanical beyond the fact that he won't be himself yet just coming off the surgery. I'll tell you, though....if Sale, Barnes, and Ottavino could pitch as they're capable of, can you imagine how much better the pitching would be?
|
|
|
Post by saltalamacchia4mvp on Oct 13, 2021 12:38:06 GMT -5
For the third time in this 2 page post.... I am NOT comfortable with Sale or Edrod against this Astro Offense. Eovaldi should definitely get the opening game. I would pitch Sale in game 2 with Houck at the quick ready to go from pitch 1. If Houck is not needed in game 2 because Sale suddenly becomes Sale again.... I start him in Game 3. I would then seriously start Pivetta with Whitlock as a piggy back if needed. Edrod would be a pen guy for me and inning eater. I would then repeat games 1-3 For us to have a chance we're going to have to slug and some pitchers need to step up. IMO I believe pitching Sale in Houston is not giving him the best opportunity to succeed. I'd give him game 3 or 4 so he can feed off the Fenway crowd and maybe get a solid five innings out of him, I'm not expecting a shutout (Especially against their offense) but just give them a shot to win the game late. Personally I'd pitch him in game four and out of relief for an inning or two if the series goes back to Houston.
|
|
|
Post by saltalamacchia4mvp on Oct 13, 2021 12:53:52 GMT -5
I think a key to this series could be getting a guy like Ottavino going especially against the slugging Houston right-handed hitters. We can't keep pitching guys as we did against Tampa or they're going to get completely burned out in a seven-game series - we need something from Ottavino, Barnes, Saw-man (if added), Taylor, and others who can eat innings 5-7 if needed.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Oct 13, 2021 14:16:27 GMT -5
McCullers not being 100% is a pretty big deal for the Stros. Anything can happen in the post season and I am hoping to see the Sox bats continue to rake. According to ESPN, McCullers came out of the game in the 4th inning with the dreaded "forearm tightness" that so often leads to TJ surgery. I'd actually be a little surprised if he pitches again in these playoffs. He has already had 1 TJ surgery which would also lead them to sitting him.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
|
Post by ericmvan on Oct 13, 2021 14:21:59 GMT -5
Sale's 5 pre-COVID starts were really good but with terrible karma on balls in play. Expected line first, actual next = wOBA.
.215 / .280 / .311 = .268 (109 PA)
.290 / .349 / .450 = .346
His 3 best xwOBA's of his 10 starts are in starts 1, 2, and 5 of that stretch.
Since his return, he's been below average, with slightly bad karma:
.258 / .322 / .418 = .327 (81 PA) .270 / .333 / .432 = .332
However, the first (xwOBA only) and last of these 5 starts are skewing the results. You'd expect him to be rusty in his first game returning. His next 3 stats, to the end of the regular season:
.235 / .303 / .345 = .292 (56 PA)
.275 / .339 / .392 = .321
That's not significantly different from his first 5, although it might reflect some seasonal fatigue. The caveat is that this makes his start in ALDS game 2 (.439 expected, .667 actual wOBA) really stand out.
The hope is that this was just a fixable mechanical issue and we can expect a solid 3rd starter performance from him. Expecting Chris! Sale!! this year seems unrealistic.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
|
Post by ericmvan on Oct 13, 2021 15:38:44 GMT -5
The three setup guys for the Astros, Graveman, Stanek and Yimi Garcia, all have big platoon splits. In the current lineup, there are 2 spots where they'd have to go LRL:
Schwarbs Kiké Raffy Xander Dugie
JDM Renfroe (/Dalbec)
C Arroyo
They could swap 3 through 6, which is a better lineup, but it yields only 1 LRL sequence, Raffy, JDM, Dugie.
Shaw's going to get some meaningful PA's in this series ... and I wonder whether they'll swap in Duran for Santana in part for that reason.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 13, 2021 15:42:20 GMT -5
Man...I am jonesin' for more baseball. The next 48 hours are gonna be sheer torture.
|
|
|
Post by patford on Oct 13, 2021 15:53:09 GMT -5
Weird. Dalbec is apparently the fastest guy who is on the Red Sox ALCS roster: /photo/1
|
|
|
Post by kjkramer on Oct 13, 2021 18:49:43 GMT -5
This wait is killing me. Still like 48 hours to go. Ughhh
|
|
|
Post by patford on Oct 13, 2021 19:18:27 GMT -5
It would be nice to fill part of that time with a podcast.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2021 19:29:18 GMT -5
It would be nice to fill part of that time with a podcast. I vote for podcast
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,962
|
Post by jimoh on Oct 13, 2021 19:52:20 GMT -5
Weird. Dalbec is apparently the fastest guy who is on the Red Sox ALCS roster: /photo/1 The term "sprint speed" in that stat means the highest speed he reaches while running, even if only for a second. It's a weird stat. It's better to be able to reach top speed fast and maintain it for as long as you can. Look at the line to the left, HP to 1b time, and he's slower than Schwarber. Having his 1st to 3rd time would be even better. Edit: oops, of course the LHH Schwartz could have a better time going home to first without actually being faster.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 13, 2021 20:44:31 GMT -5
It would be nice to fill part of that time with a podcast. I vote for podcast Recorded. It's coming.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Oct 13, 2021 21:31:17 GMT -5
Sale's 5 pre-COVID starts were really good but with terrible karma on balls in play. Expected line first, actual next = wOBA.
.215 / .280 / .311 = .268 (109 PA)
.290 / .349 / .450 = .346
His 3 best xwOBA's of his 10 starts are in starts 1, 2, and 5 of that stretch.
Since his return, he's been below average, with slightly bad karma:
.258 / .322 / .418 = .327 (81 PA) .270 / .333 / .432 = .332
However, the first (xwOBA only) and last of these 5 starts are skewing the results. You'd expect him to be rusty in his first game returning. His next 3 stats, to the end of the regular season:
.235 / .303 / .345 = .292 (56 PA)
.275 / .339 / .392 = .321
That's not significantly different from his first 5, although it might reflect some seasonal fatigue. The caveat is that this makes his start in ALDS game 2 (.439 expected, .667 actual wOBA) really stand out.
The hope is that this was just a fixable mechanical issue and we can expect a solid 3rd starter performance from him. Expecting Chris! Sale!! this year seems unrealistic.
It kind of seems like a lot comes down to what you think of that Luplow homer.
-I'm pretty comfortable writing off the Washington game as a bad luck case; they didn't even really have very solid contact in that one. His control wasn't great (3 walks) but he also had 7 Ks in 2.1 innings, which is a pretty good K rate when you do the math...
-He gave up harder contact in the TB game: 105, 88, 105, 104, and 78. That was a very solid single by Arozarena, a lucky single by Franco, and a solid single by Diaz (3-3 on an expected 1.26 hits), followed by the 104mph Luplow homer. Not exactly ace pitching, but a basically banal sequence, also with 2 Ks, a walk, and a can of corn flyout mixed in. If not for the homer you'd think nothing of it even mixed into a good start.
But what about that Luplow homer? It was on a fastball above the zone on an 0-2 count, seemingly exactly where he wanted to throw it - the type of pitch that normally ought to yield a swing-and-miss K or a popout. Did Luplow just make a great swing? Or is the current version of Sale prone to hittable fastballs even when he spots them?
Sale was pretty homer-prone this season, in fact: 16.7% HR/FB rate. So maybe that's the more general question: was that SSS bad luck? Or is his current incarnation a more homer-prone pitcher?
|
|
|
Post by taiwansox on Oct 13, 2021 21:46:46 GMT -5
Sale's 5 pre-COVID starts were really good but with terrible karma on balls in play. Expected line first, actual next = wOBA.
.215 / .280 / .311 = .268 (109 PA)
.290 / .349 / .450 = .346
His 3 best xwOBA's of his 10 starts are in starts 1, 2, and 5 of that stretch.
Since his return, he's been below average, with slightly bad karma:
.258 / .322 / .418 = .327 (81 PA) .270 / .333 / .432 = .332
However, the first (xwOBA only) and last of these 5 starts are skewing the results. You'd expect him to be rusty in his first game returning. His next 3 stats, to the end of the regular season:
.235 / .303 / .345 = .292 (56 PA)
.275 / .339 / .392 = .321
That's not significantly different from his first 5, although it might reflect some seasonal fatigue. The caveat is that this makes his start in ALDS game 2 (.439 expected, .667 actual wOBA) really stand out.
The hope is that this was just a fixable mechanical issue and we can expect a solid 3rd starter performance from him. Expecting Chris! Sale!! this year seems unrealistic.
It kind of seems like a lot comes down to what you think of that Luplow homer.
-I'm pretty comfortable writing off the Washington game as a bad luck case; they didn't even really have very solid contact in that one. His control wasn't great (3 walks) but he also had 7 Ks in 2.1 innings, which is a pretty good K rate when you do the math...
-He gave up harder contact in the TB game: 105, 88, 105, 104, and 78. That was a very solid single by Arozarena, a lucky single by Franco, and a solid single by Diaz (3-3 on an expected 1.26 hits), followed by the 104mph Luplow homer. Not exactly ace pitching, but a basically banal sequence, also with 2 Ks, a walk, and a can of corn flyout mixed in. If not for the homer you'd think nothing of it even mixed into a good start.
But what about that Luplow homer? It was on a fastball above the zone on an 0-2 count, seemingly exactly where he wanted to throw it - the type of pitch that normally ought to yield a swing-and-miss K or a popout. Did Luplow just make a great swing? Or is the current version of Sale prone to hittable fastballs even when he spots them?
Sale was pretty homer-prone this season, in fact: 16.7% HR/FB rate. So maybe that's the more general question: was that SSS bad luck? Or is his current incarnation a more homer-prone pitcher?
I think your analysis is spot on. One thing to remember is how Cora talked about the game plan versus Sale in 2017. Basically when he has no command of his fastball glove side, you can basically rule out the slider and sit on his pitches arm-side. That also makes his change up more vulnerable because RHH can sit on the outside part of the plate. Yandy Diaz just sat on the outside part of the plate and the pitch he hit was a slider almost a foot off the plate. We’ll know right away which Chris Sale we’re getting based on his glove-side fastball command. I’d like to see Plawecki catch Sale just to experiment especially because he never shakes off pitches, so the game-calling is purely on whoever is catching.
|
|
|
Post by aznpopsical on Oct 13, 2021 22:42:43 GMT -5
All I wanna say before the series starts is…get outta way get tf outta our way yea, you either with us or against us
|
|
|
Post by kjkramer on Oct 13, 2021 23:19:59 GMT -5
It would be nice to fill part of that time with a podcast. I vote for podcast I third a podcast
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
|
Post by ericmvan on Oct 14, 2021 3:15:11 GMT -5
Gut feeling: Astros players who are by nature confident are overconfident. Those who are by nature less confident feel pressure. It's almost always tougher being the favorite.
Psychologically there is no better position than being the underdog while knowing you're actually better.
None of this may be true, but it makes me feel better.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
|
Post by ericmvan on Oct 14, 2021 5:58:27 GMT -5
Framber Valdez, LHP, slightly above average 92 mph sinker, but his out pitch is his curve.
Bobby Dalbec vs. LHP curves since 8/8: 2/6, HR. Vs. LH Sinkers, 4 PA, 1/4, 2B, .468 xwOBA. Basically a 1.000 OPS versus his repertoire (in a tiny sample, but as part pf a much bigger one).
|
|
mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,753
|
Post by mobaz on Oct 14, 2021 8:09:13 GMT -5
Can I get some Tom Petty? The WAAAAAAAAAITING is the haaardest part
|
|
mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,753
|
Post by mobaz on Oct 14, 2021 8:16:33 GMT -5
While we're waiting, some inspiration:
Random note: 4 different pitchers each got 1 ER for Papi's slam (Jose Veras, Smyly, Al Albuqueruqe, and Benoit.) I wonder how many times that's happened?? Won't happen again soon with the 3 pitcher rule.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 14, 2021 8:34:09 GMT -5
Lol the podcast was up by the time you posted this.
|
|
|