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Red Sox vs. Astros 2021 ALCS Gameday Thread
TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 14, 2021 19:44:11 GMT -5
Unless he magically "found" another 4-5 MPH on the FB and a better changeup, I don't like it. This means they're counting on him to pitch twice. I was hoping to use him in game 4 and then as a short - and I do mean short - reliever later on. He might be useful in a carefully-chosen spot against Alvarez, Brantley or Tucker. Wouldn’t +5 have him touching 100? I think he can get by without that. I could be wrong, but I think he's been in the 93 range. I just don't have faith in him after his last three starts, two of which came against dregs (O's, Nats).
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 14, 2021 19:50:03 GMT -5
Yeah, Sale’s velo in recent games is off less than 1 mph from his Boston peak. He’s not the same pitcher he was in 2018, but this idea that he had some big velo drop is a myth. I recall one start in which talked afterwards about throwing a couple of "FU" FBs that I think touched 98. That was before his recent downturn. It doesn't seem like he's able to dial that up now. I think he's just hit the wall, post-TJ. I hope to be eating a massive plate of crow after he dominates in game 1. I've gotten used to a crow-heavy diet, having been so critical of the KKH signing!
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Post by jmei on Oct 14, 2021 20:30:45 GMT -5
Wouldn’t +5 have him touching 100? I think he can get by without that. I could be wrong, but I think he's been in the 93 range. I just don't have faith in him after his last three starts, two of which came against dregs (O's, Nats). You are wrong. He averaged 94.4 vs. TB (max 96, min 93.2), 94.0 vs. WSN (max 97.1, min 91.7) and 94.1 vs. BAL (max 97.6, min 90.1). That's down a little from 94.9 in 2017 and 95.4 in 2018, but nowhere near the magnitude you are suggesting.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 14, 2021 20:36:23 GMT -5
My guess is that he "found" something mechanical. His FB command was off in the last few starts. Getting that back might be significant enough for AC to get him out there ASAP. Whether or not it's faster now, I hope he at least knows where it's going.
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Post by patford on Oct 14, 2021 21:06:38 GMT -5
I could be wrong, but I think he's been in the 93 range. I just don't have faith in him after his last three starts, two of which came against dregs (O's, Nats). You are wrong. He averaged 94.4 vs. TB (max 96, min 93.2), 94.0 vs. WSN (max 97.1, min 91.7) and 94.1 vs. BAL (max 97.6, min 90.1). That's down a little from 94.9 in 2017 and 95.4 in 2018, but nowhere near the magnitude you are suggesting. He's been throwing a lot of 92-93 and the loss of command suggests he's straining to generate the higher velocity rather than it being easy velocity. As far as past years go his career track record has been that (like almost all pitchers) his raw stuff diminishes over the 2nd half. So 2017-2018 represent full years but was his FB velocity in those two years significantly better in the first half? In any case it would be hard to overstate how big it would be if he came out in game 1 and went six innings allowing 2 or fewer runs.
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Post by kjkramer on Oct 14, 2021 21:07:35 GMT -5
I think starting Sale in Houston is a mistake but Cora did say they might of had a breakthrough - honestly at the point were whatever Alex decides to do i'm good with. He's that great of a manager IMO... [br Agreed. I have a very bad feeling and hope I am very wrong. Definitely not the move I would make. Hopefully they found something BIG wrong and 100% sire it is corrected
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Post by Canseco on Oct 14, 2021 21:31:06 GMT -5
Getting that back might be significant enough for AC to get him out there ASAP.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 15, 2021 1:03:12 GMT -5
I think starting Sale in Houston is a mistake but Cora did say they might of had a breakthrough - honestly at the point were whatever Alex decides to do i'm good with. He's that great of a manager IMO... [br Agreed. I have a very bad feeling and hope I am very wrong. Definitely not the move I would make. You aren’t alone here. We just have to put our faith in Cora and hope this is the right call. Sale has started against the Astros in the playoffs twice before. One was horrendous(probably influenced by the trash cans in HOU) and the other was just plain lousy. Let’s hope for a better outcome this time around.
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Post by vokuhila on Oct 15, 2021 2:02:53 GMT -5
Can we please put a bit of trust in Cora's decisions...I think he has earned that! It's not like Cora was absent during Sale's last starts. The easy/obvious decision would be to move him down the pecking order and jet he decided against that...he will have his reasons! Maybe this... Nathan Eovaldi’s keen eye might help Chris Sale return to form for Red Sox“I don’t think he was that far off. There were a couple things mechanically that I thought were a little different now than where he has been in the past.” ... “That’s one of the big things, coming back from Tommy John, is everybody expects you to come back perfect right away and I know firsthand it’s not always like that,” Eovaldi said. “I’m a big mechanics guy and he’s a grip-it-and-rip-it type guy, so me being able to talk to him a little bit, little things about his mechanics, and he said he felt the same thing I was saying, so hopefully he’ll be ready to go.” ... “Even though he’d been throwing well, I hadn’t been seeing — his stuff just plays on another level when everything mechanically is right. When he first came back, the slider was not as good and the fastball (and) changeup were good, then the fastball and slider were good and not the changeup. So there’s inconsistency in that and I think it’s just a matter of his tempo, he’s got a very fast tempo and sometimes that prevents him from getting back in control of everything, and everybody is able to notice it when things aren’t going as well. He’s able to reach back 97-98 mph, but it’s just getting to that point where he can do that the entire time.” Maybe this... Sale InterviewMaybe something else...
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 15, 2021 5:03:54 GMT -5
Sale in game 1 gives Eovaldi an extra day of rest, and then another extra day between games 2 and 6. That's very likely a significant rationale.
It also means that Sale gets 1 start each away and at home, while Eovaldi pitches twice on the road. That may well be better, based on their fit to the parks, and that could be a second reason.
A third reason struck me as soon as I read the "found it in the bullpen" story, and made me wonder whether game 2 might be a better choice than 3. If you're an Astro, leaning that McCullers is out is a serious "f***!" moment. Discovering that struggling Chris Sale is actually some semblence of vintage Chris! Sale!!! would be another. So why not put that potential psychological downer as early in the series as possible? Our grabbing home field advantage behind Eovaldi in game 1 would not be that surprising or distressing. Losing home field to Sale and having to face Eovaldi the next day would be a real blow. Swapping the two may actually increase your odds of a split (and hence grabbing home field), and if Sale in 1 pans out ...
This move represents real Cora confidence in Sale. He had no good reason to trust Brasier when he started to, and before that Robles. The list is probably longer.
Meanwhile, FG now has us as 53% to 47% favorites if McCullers can't pitch, and as I pointed out earlier, they are underestimating our offense.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 15, 2021 5:41:53 GMT -5
After a few days off my anticipation is getting to me. Sox bats are going to continue to rake and the staff is going to be outstanding!! With Sale, Nate and ERod leading the way!!
The Sox are going to the WS!!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 15, 2021 5:48:32 GMT -5
Cora in his presser also stressed that the whole bullpen will be rested for game 1 in case they need it. Pivetta and E-Rod will be there.
Question nobody asked: "What's the status of Matt Barnes and Adam Ottavino in terms of getting them back to form, and can you get to a full trust situation just from bullpens, or would you want to see them in low-leverage first?" Instead, half the questions were about Houston as the opponent and the obvious implications thereof.
Baker mentioned Odorzzi but not Greinke as an option when discussing McCullers. They're awaiting MRI results on the latter.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 15, 2021 8:10:30 GMT -5
I could be wrong, but I think he's been in the 93 range. I just don't have faith in him after his last three starts, two of which came against dregs (O's, Nats). You are wrong. He averaged 94.4 vs. TB (max 96, min 93.2), 94.0 vs. WSN (max 97.1, min 91.7) and 94.1 vs. BAL (max 97.6, min 90.1). That's down a little from 94.9 in 2017 and 95.4 in 2018, but nowhere near the magnitude you are suggesting. Not sure what the data shows, but hasn’t he also been throwing his FB much less? It sure has looked that way. I just hope he’s throwing strikes. That is even more important than usual against this team.
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Post by cheers on Oct 15, 2021 8:19:33 GMT -5
Game day! Think I just watched my wall clock move backwards...
Brain says Stros in 6. Brain also said Sox finish 82-80, Yanks win WCG, Rays in 4.
Hopefully my wrongness continues - time to take out the trash.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 15, 2021 9:02:22 GMT -5
3.9 BB/9 for Framber this season. I hope the Sox are in patient mode tonight. He definitely doesn’t have the best control. He was REALLY tough on the Sox this season, however(2-0, 1.26ERA, 14.1IP, 2ER, 18K, 2BB).
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Post by patford on Oct 15, 2021 10:05:11 GMT -5
3.9 BB/9 for Framber this season. I hope the Sox are in patient mode tonight. He definitely doesn’t have the best control. He was REALLY tough on the Sox this season, however(2-0, 1.26ERA, 14.1IP, 2ER, 18K, 2BB). They should sit on his FB and not offer at all on his curve. The Wild Card game and series against Tampa were revelations with the Sox out of nowhere suddenly reversing roles with the Yankees and Rays and being the team running up pitch counts and drawing walks.
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Post by blizzards39 on Oct 15, 2021 10:48:06 GMT -5
Sale in game 1 gives Eovaldi an extra day of rest, and then another extra day between games 2 and 6. That's very likely a significant rationale.
It also means that Sale gets 1 start each away and at home, while Eovaldi pitches twice on the road. That may well be better, based on their fit to the parks, and that could be a second reason.
A third reason struck me as soon as I read the "found it in the bullpen" story, and made me wonder whether game 2 might be a better choice than 3. If you're an Astro, leaning that McCullers is out is a serious "f***!" moment. Discovering that struggling Chris Sale is actually some semblence of vintage Chris! Sale!!! would be another. So why not put that potential psychological downer as early in the series as possible? Our grabbing home field advantage behind Eovaldi in game 1 would not be that surprising or distressing. Losing home field to Sale and having to face Eovaldi the next day would be a real blow. Swapping the two may actually increase your odds of a split (and hence grabbing home field), and if Sale in 1 pans out ...
This move represents real Cora confidence in Sale. He had no good reason to trust Brasier when he started to, and before that Robles. The list is probably longer.
Meanwhile, FG now has us as 53% to 47% favorites if McCullers can't pitch, and as I pointed out earlier, they are underestimating our offense.
TOTALY AGREE. If sale goes good, even for 4 innings it a positive. And Evo in game 2 vs Garcia makes us the favorate in that game. Come home 1-1 and we are in good shape.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Oct 15, 2021 11:03:53 GMT -5
Sawamura and Darwinzon over Barnes and Austin Davis for this round
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Post by Guidas on Oct 15, 2021 11:10:14 GMT -5
Sawamura and Darwinzon over Barnes and Austin Davis for this round I have zero confidence in Darwinzon, but in my mind he and Sawamura are (sadly) interchangeable with Barnes and Davis right now. If any of them are in the game it's either a huge run differential or very deep into extra innings.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Oct 15, 2021 11:22:38 GMT -5
It is amazing that Barnes has gone from signing an extension to bring dropped from the playoff roster. It is a Schiraldi-esque fall from grace.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 15, 2021 11:25:54 GMT -5
It is amazing that Barnes has gone from signing an extension to bring dropped from the playoff roster. It is a Schiraldi-esque fall from grace. It's sad. If they had a first half Barnes, that's a lockdown closer and it frees you to use Whitlock earlier. Damn shame, with all the fixing the coaching staff tries to do, they couldn't figure out what the hell is wrong with Barnes. Was he all sticky stuff? Is that the issue? It's like he lost it suddenly.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 15, 2021 11:30:40 GMT -5
It is amazing that Barnes has gone from signing an extension to bring dropped from the playoff roster. It is a Schiraldi-esque fall from grace. It's sad. If they had a first half Barnes, that's a lockdown closer and it frees you to use Whitlock earlier. Damn shame, with all the fixing the coaching staff tries to do, they couldn't figure out what the hell is wrong with Barnes. Was he all sticky stuff? Is that the issue? It's like he lost it suddenly. Maybe they just need Eovaldi to watch Barnes and tell him what he’s doing wrong?
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Oct 15, 2021 11:33:29 GMT -5
It is amazing that Barnes has gone from signing an extension to bring dropped from the playoff roster. It is a Schiraldi-esque fall from grace. It's sad. If they had a first half Barnes, that's a lockdown closer and it frees you to use Whitlock earlier. Damn shame, with all the fixing the coaching staff tries to do, they couldn't figure out what the hell is wrong with Barnes. Was he all sticky stuff? Is that the issue? It's like he lost it suddenly. His confidence seems to have cratered, too. I wonder if some of the sticky-stuff guys *thought* it helped so much that they are like addicts in withdrawal. Richards seemed to collapse mentally, too. I am not saying it wasn’t huge physically, but losing it might have felt like losing a crutch.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 15, 2021 11:36:36 GMT -5
It's sad. If they had a first half Barnes, that's a lockdown closer and it frees you to use Whitlock earlier. Damn shame, with all the fixing the coaching staff tries to do, they couldn't figure out what the hell is wrong with Barnes. Was he all sticky stuff? Is that the issue? It's like he lost it suddenly. His confidence seems to have cratered, too. I wonder if some of the sticky-stuff guys *thought* it helped so much that they are like addicts in withdrawal. Richards seemed to collapse mentally, too. I am not saying it wasn’t huge physically, but losing it might have felt like losing a crutch. At least Richards did pitch well for a stretch. Barnes just flat out fell apart. And never recovered. He looked terrible in his one ALDS appearance and I'm sure that was enough to convince Cora that he's still a mess.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 15, 2021 11:43:51 GMT -5
Game day! Think I just watched my wall clock move backwards... Brain says Stros in 6. Brain also said Sox finish 82-80, Yanks win WCG, Rays in 4. Hopefully my wrongness continues - time to take out the trash. may your brain be always wrong with the Sox !!
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