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What 2021-22 Free Agents Do You Want
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 25, 2021 16:29:35 GMT -5
I think Baseball Refrence and Fangraphs do a rather good job. I'd point out how they agree most of the time. Take Devers they both agree with his best and worst seasons. I don't know how anyone can think just batted ball data can be great, nevermind one that overlooks so many things. A SS being good or bad at double plays is a rather big part of his D. There's so many things that can effect batted ball data, like night and days games, the games where the sun sets, wind, humidity levels, rain, is it crazy hot or cold, etc. Heck even park effects, how does batted ball data ranks OFs playing the green monster? Staying back to get the bounce the correct way takes doubles and turns them into crazy long singles. OF with no experience with the Green monster, make matters much worse and can turn that into a triple. People point out the weak spots DRS and UZR, which they both clearly have some. Yet we know that because of the amount data and studies on them over the years. At the same time they have been adjusting and adapting them for years. So to say a two year old advanced stat is clearly better kinda blows my mind. If anything you can say it's better or maybe the best at one thing right? It's not looking at everything, so there's no way it clearly is the best. How does batted ball data for infield defense measure ground balls in different parks that have grass versus turf? Those late bounces. It could just show it as an average play, yet that crazy bounce meant it was a great play. Defense isn't just where you are, where the ball is and how fast it is with angle. It could be useful data for sure, yet it looks more like a piece of the puzzle. You just named a bunch of factors that UZR and DRS don't account for either, for the most part. I shouldn't have been so definitive in my original statement, but I don't exactly get your point here, it sounds like more of an argument for using the eye test, by which I don't think Xander does particularly well either, he just doesn't get to balls other shortstops do. It really is wild to me how Jeter-like he is, in all regards (on field performance wise). Sure DRS is by people watching the games, they can take those factors into account. I'm a big believer in using the eye test, scouting and more advanced things like batted ball data. Combine all three and you get a much better picture. I look at statcast data as a piece of the puzzle, not an end all some people do.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 25, 2021 16:36:02 GMT -5
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 25, 2021 16:58:23 GMT -5
That's the whole point, those two basically give you the eye test versus batted ball data. Yet they've been refining them for years and years. You can try to make a better stat, doesn't mean that you actually do. I don't like Bogaerts D, yet saying he's one of the worst defenders in all of Baseball seems laughable. DRS, from baseball reference, says Xander is one of the worst defenders in all of baseball. 2018-2021 he is tied for the 3rd worse cumulative DRS in baseball with Charlie Blackmon at -26. The only two players worse are Devers at -33 and Castellanos at -39. UZR/150 does like him better, but he's still essentially average over that time. I'm not going through every player, yet that is just wrong. Example Hunter Dozier is -49 DRS since 2018. Bogaerts rank as worst defender per year is 60th, 32, 34 and 35 for 2021 to 2018. He's never been close to top ten worst in a single year. That's before you account for games also, like Duran -5 also last year, yet in way fewer games or Travis Shaw at -3 in a very limited sample size.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 25, 2021 17:08:33 GMT -5
Bolded portions make me very happy.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 25, 2021 17:23:21 GMT -5
I don't see this at all. I mean, Dombrowski could throw $350 million at Correa if he were Sox GM. They wouldn't need to hire Bloom to do this. They have Bogaerts and Devers on the left side of the infield. Bogaerts could move to 3b just as easily as Correa eventually could and most likely for less dollars. Signing Correa makes it certain that both X and Devers won't be extended and more likely that they won't extend either assuming X opts out. I mean Correa is going to command 10 years $350 million or somewhere in that vicinity. They didn't want to extend that far for Mookie but they're willing to do so for Correa? I guess I just don't see this at all. I really doubt the Sox make a huge splash this offseason. I can't see it either and I think a lot of the reasons listed as to why it could happen are irrelevant. Correa's landing spot will have nothing to do with whether he has a prior relationship with the manager, whether the manager is PR or whether the manager is good at recruiting other PR players (and I don't even know whether Cora is good at that). It'll come down to what it always comes down to: money and years. Players always talk a good game about wanting to go somewhere where they're respected, a good place to raise a family, etc. But it's funny how in almost every instance they end up with the team that offered the most money. So, the question becomes, "Will the RS offer mega-years and dollars for Correa?" CB was brought here to win without handing out that cripple the payroll for years at a time. He's trying to keep the team competitive while working his past the big contracts he inherited. He's not going to hand out more at this stage of his restructuring of the payroll and roster. Obviously Kiké didn't make his decision solely because of Cora, but Cora was previously the manager for Puerto Rico as well, which holds extra sway. As fans, we often forget that these are people and they don't make decisions solely based on money, just like we don't decide on our jobs solely based on money - but money IS very important. Assuming the Red Sox and other teams are close, Cora could very well be the difference. At what stage should Bloom start handing our big $$ then? They (presumably) were under the tax this year, they made the ALCS and their payments to players no-longer on the roster are falling off (Pedroia after 2021 and Price after 2022). As there won't be a free agency for infielders like the current one any time soon, it's the time to sign someone or re-sign their own guys. Either way, they'll be spending big $$ on the left side of the infield while using affordable cost-controlled players on the right side.
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Post by orion09 on Oct 25, 2021 17:24:50 GMT -5
I wouldn't mind throwing a few 1 year deals at fringy starters and convert them into relievers, ala Richards this year
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 25, 2021 17:28:21 GMT -5
Lots to catch up on in this thread but two things were stated as facts that I would like verified by others. Did Scherzer actually ok a trade to Boston at the deadline? Also it was stated that the Sox have attempted to move X to 3rd but it was a failure. Can anybody actually confirm that these statements have any truth to them? Or are they just opinions stated as facts and nobody has questioned them. There are many pages of discussion on this site about Xander's struggles at third and I posted his numbers from 2013 and 2014. The move was more to get him into the lineup rather than a long-term decision (to my knowledge).
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 25, 2021 17:29:20 GMT -5
Music to my ears, ahh the beautiful music. Hopefully they both take team friendly deals, stay Sox for life and are rewarded with multiple WS rings!!
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Post by scottysmalls on Oct 25, 2021 17:38:35 GMT -5
DRS, from baseball reference, says Xander is one of the worst defenders in all of baseball. 2018-2021 he is tied for the 3rd worse cumulative DRS in baseball with Charlie Blackmon at -26. The only two players worse are Devers at -33 and Castellanos at -39. UZR/150 does like him better, but he's still essentially average over that time. I'm not going through every player, yet that is just wrong. Example Hunter Dozier is -49 DRS since 2018. Bogaerts rank as worst defender per year is 60th, 32, 34 and 35 for 2021 to 2018. He's never been close to top ten worst in a single year. That's before you account for games also, like Duran -5 also last year, yet in way fewer games or Travis Shaw at -3 in a very limited sample size. You can sort on Fangraphs and find the full list, in cumulative DRS since 2018 Xander is 11th worst (once you remove innings qualifiers), or 7th worst excluding catchers. You're right about the sample size thing in that most guys who are worse than he is defensively don't get the innings played to rack up so many negative plays. UZR has him much better overall, but that's despite his range, which UZR also has as third worst (cumulatively) among shortstops since 2018. UZR just also gives him a lot of credit for avoiding errors, which the other stats don't value as highly. As a broader point, since the start of 2019 the Red Sox gap between their ERA and their FIP is the biggest in baseball, in the wrong direction (the Dodgers actually have a bigger gap in that their ERA massively outperforms their FIP). It's obviously not just Xander, and there are plenty of other ways to do it, but improving the team defense should be a big priority.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Oct 25, 2021 17:54:48 GMT -5
I'm not going through every player, yet that is just wrong. Example Hunter Dozier is -49 DRS since 2018. Bogaerts rank as worst defender per year is 60th, 32, 34 and 35 for 2021 to 2018. He's never been close to top ten worst in a single year. That's before you account for games also, like Duran -5 also last year, yet in way fewer games or Travis Shaw at -3 in a very limited sample size. You can sort on Fangraphs and find the full list, in cumulative DRS since 2018 Xander is 11th worst (once you remove innings qualifiers), or 7th worst excluding catchers. You're right about the sample size thing in that most guys who are worse than he is defensively don't get the innings played to rack up so many negative plays. UZR has him much better overall, but that's despite his range, which UZR also has as third worst (cumulatively) among shortstops since 2018. UZR just also gives him a lot of credit for avoiding errors, which the other stats don't value as highly. As a broader point, since the start of 2019 the Red Sox gap between their ERA and their FIP is the biggest in baseball, in the wrong direction (the Dodgers actually have a bigger gap in that their ERA massively outperforms their FIP). It's obviously not just Xander, and there are plenty of other ways to do it, but improving the team defense should be a big priority. UZR throws out every play that is in the shift. From what I gather most people completely ignoring that metric at this point (and fWAR for position players as a result of that).
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Post by notstarboard on Oct 25, 2021 19:28:08 GMT -5
I would like to see Erod brought back. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a bit of a hometown discount and his underlying metrics were as solid as ever this year. Next year will only be his age 29 season, so paying the man for a few years wouldn't scare me.
I'd like to bring back Iglesias on the cheap as well for reasons others have already said - he has the potential to be a useful defender and alright bat, covers a need in middle infield while also being able to help out at 3B, and should have the motivation he's looking for playing for a competitive team in front of some great fans.
I am hoping JD opts out. Outside of the first six weeks of the season and the playoffs, he had a pretty mediocre season. $19.3 million for a good, but no longer great, DH bat is just not worth it to me, and even less so when that player refuses to get vaccinated, thereby risking the health of his teammates, clubhouse friction, etc. A QO would probably be smart if he opts out, but deep down I just want him gone.
I do not want to bring back Schwarber either. If we're going to be spending big on a bat-first DH, that bat had better be transcendent. JD Martinez, when he was first signed, was transcendent. 168 OPS+ the year before his deal and 173 OPS+ en route to a World Series the year after he was signed. Schwarber has never been that guy. He combined for 148 OPS+ between Washington and Boston this year, but this was by far the best season of his career. He's not nearly on the level that Martinez was on when he got signed for $22 million AAV, but I'm still expecting him to be expensive to retain in terms of AAV (maybe in the 4/80 ballpark?). If NL DH hits and drives up DH prices this goes from a simple no to a hard no.
A handful of people in this thread have commented on wanting someone to "fill" or "lock down" DH, but I really don't think that's necessary. Especially given how weak our infield defense has been, I would much rather rotate players through the DH slot to keep them fresh while simultaneously improving our average defense.
I want nothing to do with Scherzer either. The guy is 37 years old, coming off a dead arm in the playoffs, and will be highly sought after, and therefore very expensive. If the Sox bring back Erod I still would like to bring in one more starter, but it definitely doesn't need to be a top of the rotation type of guy. Pivetta, Houck, Whitlock, and maybe Seabold should be able to lock down the back of the rotation and, for those who don't make it initially, help solidify the bullpen until they're needed to start.
I want nothing to do with Correa because he's a smug and unapologetic member of the 2017 Astros. Excellent fit for the team otherwise, but some things are more important. I hope he goes to NYY so I can cheer against him for years to come.
I would like to see Devers stay in Boston long term. Ideally same for X, especially after seeing the article someone linked above saying he'd be open to moving to 2B or 3B long term. He'd have to be open to getting paid at that level too, though. I don't want him for anything resembling Lindor / (likely) Correa money.
As for options, Richards and Perez should be easy declines. Vazquez's will probably get picked up, I would think, and we can hope he has a bit of a bounce back offensive year along with more of his typical durability.
The bullpen needs some help and our bench certainly needs some depth better than the likes of Santana, but with more money to spend this year I trust Bloom to fill the gaps.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 25, 2021 19:30:21 GMT -5
If xandy has openly acknowledged to the sox that he's willing to switch positions that'd be huge. His bat plays pretty much anywhere. His ability to stick at ss has been the only reason I've been hesitant on the idea of retaining him long term. Thats not to say I want them to give him a 10 year deal or anything like that but hopefully he truly does want to stay and agrees to a fair deal.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 25, 2021 21:01:51 GMT -5
If xandy has openly acknowledged to the sox that he's willing to switch positions that'd be huge. His bat plays pretty much anywhere. His ability to stick at ss has been the only reason I've been hesitant on the idea of retaining him long term. Thats not to say I want them to give him a 10 year deal or anything like that but hopefully he truly does want to stay and agrees to a fair deal. But where do you put him? 3B was brutal last time they tried. 2B he'd have similar issues as he has at SS and his arm would be less valuable. 1B, you would lose the arm, but I think he would be really good there - however with Casas and Dalbec, there isn't a need. So then you look at OF. CF sounds a bit too ambitious. RF, he would be learning a new position and reading the batter from the opposite side, which causes problems for some players. So then the best answer is probably LF. I'm sure he would be quite good in LF, and his arm would play-up for using the wall, but his steamer projected 119 wRC just isn't that impressive out there unless he turns out to be a gold-glove fielder. Given that Xander likely wants 25+/yr (as I assume multiple teams would offer) it would be tough to give him that if he's just an above-average LFer. Then again, if the Red Sox were to sign Correa or another SS, they could move Xander to LF and find out - maybe he plays the wall like Yaz and the time saved from infield practice is used to improve his hitting. If it doesn't work, they move him back to the infield and either trade or DH Devers.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 25, 2021 21:09:50 GMT -5
If xandy has openly acknowledged to the sox that he's willing to switch positions that'd be huge. His bat plays pretty much anywhere. His ability to stick at ss has been the only reason I've been hesitant on the idea of retaining him long term. Thats not to say I want them to give him a 10 year deal or anything like that but hopefully he truly does want to stay and agrees to a fair deal. But where do you put him? 3B was brutal last time they tried. 2B he'd have similar issues as he has at SS and his arm would be less valuable. 1B, you would lose the arm, but I think he would be really good there - however with Casas and Dalbec, there isn't a need. So then you look at OF. CF sounds a bit too ambitious. RF, he would be learning a new position and reading the batter from the opposite side, which causes problems for some players. So then the best answer is probably LF. I'm sure he would be quite good in LF, and his arm would play-up for using the wall, but his steamer projected 119 wRC just isn't that impressive out there unless he turns out to be a gold-glove fielder. Given that Xander likely wants 25+/yr (as I assume multiple teams would offer) it would be tough to give him that if he's just an above-average LFer. Then again, if the Red Sox were to sign Correa or another SS, they could move Xander to LF and find out - maybe he plays the wall like Yaz and the time saved from infield practice is used to improve his hitting. If it doesn't work, they move him back to the infield and either trade or DH Devers. Xander has played a total of 53 games at 3rd in his career all of which were the first 2 years in the majors. Where this narrative he struggled mightily comes from is beyond me. I'd attribute the struggles to being a 20-21 year old cutting his teeth in the majors for the first time ever. So my answer would be 3rd base. His glove is fine it's the range that is the issue. Which seemingly would make him a good to great fielding 3rd baseman.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 25, 2021 22:00:54 GMT -5
I would like to see Erod brought back. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a bit of a hometown discount and his underlying metrics were as solid as ever this year. Next year will only be his age 29 season, so paying the man for a few years wouldn't scare me. I'd like to bring back Iglesias on the cheap as well for reasons others have already said - he has the potential to be a useful defender and alright bat, covers a need in middle infield while also being able to help out at 3B, and should have the motivation he's looking for playing for a competitive team in front of some great fans. I am hoping JD opts out. Outside of the first six weeks of the season and the playoffs, he had a pretty mediocre season. $19.3 million for a good, but no longer great, DH bat is just not worth it to me, and even less so when that player refuses to get vaccinated, thereby risking the health of his teammates, clubhouse friction, etc. A QO would probably be smart if he opts out, but deep down I just want him gone. I do not want to bring back Schwarber either. If we're going to be spending big on a bat-first DH, that bat had better be transcendent. JD Martinez, when he was first signed, was transcendent. 168 OPS+ the year before his deal and 173 OPS+ en route to a World Series the year after he was signed. Schwarber has never been that guy. He combined for 148 OPS+ between Washington and Boston this year, but this was by far the best season of his career. He's not nearly on the level that Martinez was on when he got signed for $22 million AAV, but I'm still expecting him to be expensive to retain in terms of AAV (maybe in the 4/80 ballpark?). If NL DH hits and drives up DH prices this goes from a simple no to a hard no. A handful of people in this thread have commented on wanting someone to "fill" or "lock down" DH, but I really don't think that's necessary. Especially given how weak our infield defense has been, I would much rather rotate players through the DH slot to keep them fresh while simultaneously improving our average defense. I want nothing to do with Scherzer either. The guy is 37 years old, coming off a dead arm in the playoffs, and will be highly sought after, and therefore very expensive. If the Sox bring back Erod I still would like to bring in one more starter, but it definitely doesn't need to be a top of the rotation type of guy. Pivetta, Houck, Whitlock, and maybe Seabold should be able to lock down the back of the rotation and, for those who don't make it initially, help solidify the bullpen until they're needed to start. I want nothing to do with Correa because he's a smug and unapologetic member of the 2017 Astros. Excellent fit for the team otherwise, but some things are more important. I hope he goes to NYY so I can cheer against him for years to come. I would like to see Devers stay in Boston long term. Ideally same for X, especially after seeing the article someone linked above saying he'd be open to moving to 2B or 3B long term. He'd have to be open to getting paid at that level too, though. I don't want him for anything resembling Lindor / (likely) Correa money. As for options, Richards and Perez should be easy declines. Vazquez's will probably get picked up, I would think, and we can hope he has a bit of a bounce back offensive year along with more of his typical durability. The bullpen needs some help and our bench certainly needs some depth better than the likes of Santana, but with more money to spend this year I trust Bloom to fill the gaps. I'm on board with @notstar all the way through. The big question becomes, how will Xander and Raffy react when asked to moved down the position ladder, to 3B and DH respectively. If they refuse because they're holding out for Lindor or Arenado money, what can you do? If their agents are promising that, they should be fired for malpractice. Dealing with those situations is why AC makes the big bucks but it's imperative that the infield defense be improved, particularly the left side. I see Iggy as the first step down that road (that, with luck, leads to Marcelo around 2024-25), as a proven glove at SS for 80-100 games in 2022 with X and Raffy spending time at 3B and DH. Individual defense is important but also hard to quantify -- if you don't believe me, compare someone's rankings at FG, b-ref, Baseball Savant, or any other site. It's hard to believe they're all trying to measure the same thing. (Springfield's own Nick Ahmed seems to be the only guy consistently rated at the top.) But team numbers, like the lowest rate of groundballs turned into outs, speak volumes. For me the take home is that the stats people are still figuring out a unified theory of individual baseball defense but you know it when you see it and I know I see it in Iggy. I would much rather have a proven glove at SS batting 8th than a questionable SS glove batting cleanup. SS is one of the positions where sacrificing bat for glove is worth it. It's great when you can have both but guys like A-Rod, Lindor, Machado, Arenado, Correa, are the exceptions, not the rule.
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Post by baseball3 on Oct 26, 2021 4:41:23 GMT -5
This won't win any PR awards, but what are you getting for Bogaerts? Can the Sox deal with his defense another year? If you can add a couple top ten prospects to the system and sign one of the big time shortstops, that's enticing to me. Defense is much better and offense is going to be in the same ballpark. You've got Trea Turner on the market next year too. Could also move Bogey to the outfield and move Verdugo or Renfroe. I've had this thought too. It makes a troubling amount of sense and I really hope Bloom doesn't do it. Xander has a full no trade clause that went into affect 2 years ago. It'll even be hard to find a match in a trade that Xander would approve of. You're not getting much for Xander if you deal him because of the limited market his no trade will create.
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Post by baseball3 on Oct 26, 2021 5:08:12 GMT -5
Thoughts-
-You can't resign Schwarber if the plan is to have Cassas take over soon. Schwarber's bat is a perfect fit for this lineup but positionally he's the complete opposite of a fit. He'll clog up DH and 1B and that's the one position the Sox have clogged up for years with Cassas, Dalbec, Devers (potentially).
-2B for Xander seems like a bad idea. You still need range for 2B. 2B is there to cover up a weaker arm, not to cover up a guy with lesser range. Trying to think of the best position for Xander in 2022 is tricky. He was bad at 3B like almost 10 years ago as a rookie. He might be good in time, maybe with good spring training. Not sure.
I think DH crazily enough is the best position for Xander for a year, especially if JDM opts out. Yet sigh, probably won't happen and he'll clog up a position somewhere and make the pitching worse.
-I think it's a lock JDM is opting out. He can beat one year at 19 million on the open market, which is what is left of real money on his contract for the last year of his deal.
-Devers extension is tricky. Hopefully he takes something in the low 200 million dollar range for money. His value is tied to bat. Not position (he's one of the best 3B in MLB because he's one of the best hitting 3B in MLB). He will move off position inevitably.
-Some desperate team pays Eduardo Rodriguez. They look at advanced pitching data. They fall in love with his strikeout to walk ratio and FIP, along with his relatively low age as a free agent (28). I wouldn't do it. Offer QO.
-I think the Sox should look into the San Diego Padres trade idea. Won't go too crazy with trade proposals. However, there was a story at the Trade deadline somewhere that the Sox were willing to go over the Luxury Tax threshold in only one scenario; to buy prospects. I would look into a Hosmer for Chris Sale idea and get MacKenzie Gore tied with it. There's a idea of Bloom trading to a desperate Padres team needing to win and trading Sale while he still holds enough value (trading ahead of time). You can DFA Hosmer later if he's a bad fit or is bad.
-Get a superstar short stop at your price range. 250 million sounds good for Story or Correa. Fine with either one.
-Verdugo is a interesting trade piece if you want young starting pitching and Eduardo leaves.
-This team needs one good reliever somewhere. Barnes shouldn't close anymore.
-Whitlock and Houck should battle for 5th spot of rotation and fill other four spots however you can. Let the best pitcher win. The other goes in either bullpen or minors for depth.
-You're picking between Xander and Devers moving forward with both having positional questions. Devers is younger, so probably Devers is who you pick.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 26, 2021 5:33:04 GMT -5
Thoughts- -You can't resign Schwarber if the plan is to have Cassas take over soon. Schwarber's bat is a perfect fit for this lineup but positionally he's the complete opposite of a fit. He'll clog up DH and 1B and that's the one position the Sox have clogged up for years with Cassas, Dalbec, Devers (potentially). -2B for Xander seems like a bad idea. You still need range for 2B. 2B is there to cover up a weaker arm, not to cover up a guy with lesser range. Trying to think of the best position for Xander in 2022 is tricky. He was bad at 3B like almost 10 years ago as a rookie. He might be good in time, maybe with good spring training. Not sure. I think DH crazily enough is the best position for Xander for a year, especially if JDM opts out. Yet sigh, probably won't happen and he'll clog up a position somewhere and make the pitching worse. -I think it's a lock JDM is opting out. He can beat one year at 17 million on the open market, which is what is left of real money on his contract for the last year of his deal. -Devers extension is tricky. Hopefully he takes something in the low 200 million dollar range for money. His value is tied to bat. Not position. He will move off position inevitably. -Some desperate team pays Eduardo Rodriguez. They look at advanced pitching data. They fall in love with his strikeout to walk ratio and FIP, along with his relatively low age as a free agent (28). I wouldn't do it. Offer QO. -I think the Sox should look into the San Diego Padres trade idea. Won't go too crazy with trade proposals. However, there was a story at the Trade deadline somewhere that the Sox were willing to go over the Luxury Tax threshold in only one scenario; to buy prospects. I would look into a Hosmer for Chris Sale idea and get MacKenzie Gore tied with it. There's a idea of Bloom trading to a desperate Padres team needing to win and trading Sale while he still holds enough value (trading ahead of time). You can DFA Hosmer later if he's a bad fit or is bad. -Get a superstar short stop at your price range. 250 million sounds good for Story or Correa. Fine with either one. -Verdugo is a interesting trade piece if you want young starting pitching and Eduardo leaves. -This team needs one good reliever somewhere. Barnes shouldn't close anymore. -Whitlock and Houck should battle for 5th spot of rotation and fill other four spots however you can. Let the best pitcher win. The other goes in either bullpen or minors for depth. Welcome to the board. In regards to your thoughts. I don't think the Sox brass agrees with you on much of this, I just know I don't. A bit too radical for me. But who knows maybe you are right but that would mean the Sox are ready to blow this team up. I didn't get that sense from yesterdays press conference. On a side note for those who have expressed concern that Sale is going to be more of a 2 or 3 moving forward because of the TJ surgery. First, some of the best pitchers in baseball this past season were TJ survivors and the track record is pretty good that many come back better than they were prior to TJ. Second you are discounting Sale the person and competitor, he is not built mentally to accept being anything but great. Third, maybe the wear and tear from years of pitching is what limited him towards the ends of recent seasons and he will be even stronger with a repaired elbow. The surgery has done this for many guys in the past. I expect him to be a top 5 starter in the AL next year and he expects the same if not more from what I have heard from him. He is a bulldog and a future HOFer. Why would the Sox not try to build a great staff around him next year.
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Post by baseball3 on Oct 26, 2021 5:40:50 GMT -5
The Padres were reportedly trying to sell Hosmer with prospects last deadline. Boston was one of the only teams tied in connection with that. That's why I brought that proposal up. I think Sale will be fine, but Bloom is creative.
Tampa Bay was so good because they traded players at the right time. Snell being a perfect example. Now they got Patino.
I hope Bloom follows this method and doesn't get attached to (too many) players.
Padres are a desperate team to watch. Just sayin'
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Oct 26, 2021 6:10:42 GMT -5
The Padres were reportedly trying to sell Hosmer with prospects last deadline. Boston was one of the only teams tied in connection with that. That's why I brought that proposal up. I think Sale will be fine, but Bloom is creative. Tampa Bay was so good because they traded players at the right time. Snell being a perfect example. Now they got Patino. I hope Bloom follows this method and doesn't get attached to (too many) players. Padres are a desperate team to watch. Just sayin' Here's the thing. In order to justify trading Sale for Hosmer you would have to get a top prospect back probably two. The issue is whether you believe Gore is a top prospect anymore or not. His control issues were pretty bad.
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Post by baseball3 on Oct 26, 2021 6:18:08 GMT -5
The Padres were reportedly trying to sell Hosmer with prospects last deadline. Boston was one of the only teams tied in connection with that. That's why I brought that proposal up. I think Sale will be fine, but Bloom is creative. Tampa Bay was so good because they traded players at the right time. Snell being a perfect example. Now they got Patino. I hope Bloom follows this method and doesn't get attached to (too many) players. Padres are a desperate team to watch. Just sayin' Here's the thing. In order to justify trading Sale for Hosmer you would have to get a top prospect back probably two. The issue is whether you believe Gore is a top prospect anymore or not. His control issues were pretty bad. Ohh no doubt. That's the idea. Hopefully you could get more than Gore. If Gore rebounds, well your future rotation is looking bright with a lot of control (Houck, Seabold, Whitlock, Gore).
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 26, 2021 6:37:22 GMT -5
Count me out on the Hosmer idea even if the sox only had to offer a lotto ticket prospect. None the less sale who I've said I believe can come back strong as ever in the coming years. Sale is an asset and I don't believe Hosmer is. The prospect return to bring back Hosmer would have to be astounding for me to be on board. Hosmer just isn't very good and is signed for a few more years. Chances are the Sox would be flipping him at a later date and eating money and attaching prospects to get the next team to take hi.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Oct 26, 2021 7:38:00 GMT -5
A handful of people in this thread have commented on wanting someone to "fill" or "lock down" DH, but I really don't think that's necessary. Especially given how weak our infield defense has been, I would much rather rotate players through the DH slot to keep them fresh while simultaneously improving our average defense. First, love seeing a bunch of new posters (or former lurkers) chiming in. Welcome!! Whenever I look at a team that has been rotating DH to get guys rest, the lineup as a whole is WEAK. Just take a look at the good teams that do that; you don't see the lineup lengthen the way the Sox did for the Astros series. If you have the financial ability, replacing a 115 OPS+ lineup spot (if you're lucky) with 135-145+ for little sacrifice except $16M is huge over the season. I think it's an easy benefit of flexing financial muscle. But your argument for the defensive benefit is also compelling. I think with 26 roster spots and Kiké's flexibility, you can do something similar. Honestly they tried to with Marwin and Danny Santana this season, but maybe we can get someone higher quality and use that. None of this works with both JDM and Schwarber (i think it's untenable to end another year with both), and of the two I'd rather Schwarbs at 4x16 than JDM at 1x 19 I think. But obviously the Sox don't control their own destiny there.
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Post by greenmonster on Oct 26, 2021 8:24:02 GMT -5
A handful of people in this thread have commented on wanting someone to "fill" or "lock down" DH, but I really don't think that's necessary. Especially given how weak our infield defense has been, I would much rather rotate players through the DH slot to keep them fresh while simultaneously improving our average defense. First, love seeing a bunch of new posters (or former lurkers) chiming in. Welcome!! Whenever I look at a team that has been rotating DH to get guys rest, the lineup as a whole is WEAK. Just take a look at the good teams that do that; you don't see the lineup lengthen the way the Sox did for the Astros series. If you have the financial ability, replacing a 115 OPS+ lineup spot (if you're lucky) with 135-145+ for little sacrifice except $16M is huge over the season. I think it's an easy benefit of flexing financial muscle. But your argument for the defensive benefit is also compelling. I think with 26 roster spots and Kiké's flexibility, you can do something similar. Honestly they tried to with Marwin and Danny Santana this season, but maybe we can get someone higher quality and use that. None of this works with both JDM and Schwarber (i think it's untenable to end another year with both), and of the two I'd rather Schwarbs at 4x16 than JDM at 1x 19 I think. But obviously the Sox don't control their own destiny there. I think I agree with most everything you have said here, but would offer the following thought: The one guy who I would consider signing (assuming JD opts out) would be Kris Bryant. I see him as a comparable bat to JD with more defensive ability/flexibility. He is 5yrs younger and might benefit from 81 games at Fenway. He wouldn't cost a draft pick given his deadline trade, and could spend time in LF, 3B, DH and even 1B which allow Devers and others some time at DH to rest, and upgrade the defense, etc without negatively impacting the whole lineup.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Oct 26, 2021 8:49:45 GMT -5
First, love seeing a bunch of new posters (or former lurkers) chiming in. Welcome!! Whenever I look at a team that has been rotating DH to get guys rest, the lineup as a whole is WEAK. Just take a look at the good teams that do that; you don't see the lineup lengthen the way the Sox did for the Astros series. If you have the financial ability, replacing a 115 OPS+ lineup spot (if you're lucky) with 135-145+ for little sacrifice except $16M is huge over the season. I think it's an easy benefit of flexing financial muscle. But your argument for the defensive benefit is also compelling. I think with 26 roster spots and Kiké's flexibility, you can do something similar. Honestly they tried to with Marwin and Danny Santana this season, but maybe we can get someone higher quality and use that. None of this works with both JDM and Schwarber (i think it's untenable to end another year with both), and of the two I'd rather Schwarbs at 4x16 than JDM at 1x 19 I think. But obviously the Sox don't control their own destiny there. I think I agree with most everything you have said here, but would offer the following thought: The one guy who I would consider signing (assuming JD opts out) would be Kris Bryant. I see him as a comparable bat to JD with more defensive ability/flexibility. He is 5yrs younger and might benefit from 81 games at Fenway. He wouldn't cost a draft pick given his deadline trade, and could spend time in LF, 3B, DH and even 1B which allow Devers and others some time at DH to rest, and upgrade the defense, etc without negatively impacting the whole lineup. I like Bryant a lot and definitely wouldn’t complain if we got him but checking out his defensive metrics it looks like he took a little bit of a slide this year almost everywhere. That’s mildly concerning. Could be getting less athletic with age.
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