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Post by ryanthompson on Nov 11, 2021 15:02:31 GMT -5
I think it’s safe to say Chaim is going to address the bullpen this offseason. It will be interesting to see how much they sign externally but I think we have some pretty good options in the org already. Assuming Feltman gets added to the 40 as another option, who do you think are some under the radar guys that we may see come up during the season? Some guys that stick out to me are Zack Kelly and Kaleb Ort. Both seemed to have success in the late innings in AAA. Ort obviously went up outing but do you think we see these two in Boston next year?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 12, 2021 11:31:49 GMT -5
To start the season? No chance unless there are numerous injuries. Might they get called up at some point? Who knows.
With noting that Kelly was apparently a priority MLFA re-signing who they didn't let get to the market (although it's not impossible he signed a two-year deal).
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 14, 2021 10:31:41 GMT -5
Barnes can't be a option to close. That backfired on the Sox this past year and he was used excessively and burnt out.
Who knows what options Chaim goes to with the bullpen. There was the Ray's model of the wheel turning with guys coming in one door and out the next door leaving the next season (when he was there).
I expect Chaim to use the same approach here.
Whitlock going to the rotation will take a huge hit to the bullpen for sure and this point shouldn't be overlooked if the Sox go here. Whitlock should go to the rotation. Not the issue, but you still have to replace that production if you do this.
Hopefully Eduard Buzzardo has a healthier year next year. He's always been interesting, but couldn't stay healthy this year.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 29, 2021 15:48:58 GMT -5
To me, the bullpen is the 800 lb. gorilla in this Red Sox off-season. Not sure why it's not getting more attention, as it was one of the bigger weaknesses of the 2021 team, particularly in the playoffs.
What I'd like to see (not that I expect it) is moving Nick Pivetta to the closer spot. I really liked the way he took to high-leverage bullpen work in the playoffs.
The question for me is "is he more valuable giving me 150 IP of 4.50 ERA as a middling starter or is he more valuable as a closer with fire in his belly and his stuff playing up in shorter stints?" I'd like to see what the latter looks like. The other question is "do I think he is going to take a significant step forward as a starter at age 29 and beyond?" For me the answer is "no, I do not." I see higher upside as a closer.
Who's going to replace those 150 IP in the rotation? There are still guys on the open market like Michael Pineda, Tyler Anderson, Rich Hill, maybe even Johnny Cueto, who could fill that role as well as Pivetta. Indeed, I would say it's easier to find a guy to fill that role than the closer role. It's also easy to project that Houck and Whitlock will pitch more innings in 2022 than in 2021, perhaps starting the year piggybacking in the #5 spot until one of the two grabs it by the throat.
I also wouldn't rule out a trade with CIN or OAK. Given the old saw that you can never have too much starting pitching, I expect two more starters to be acquired (in addition to Wacha).
I don't see Raisel Iglesias (QO attached) or Kenley Jansen walking out of the Red Sox bullpen sporting an 8-figure contract in 2022 and I don't really want to see Matt Barnes walking out in the 9th inning anymore. Pivetta, on the other hand, would give me confidence.
Why not Whitlock as the closer? I think his upside as a starter is higher than Pivetta's and you would be wasting that by keeping Pivetta in the rotation and Whitlock in the bullpen another year.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 29, 2021 15:52:16 GMT -5
I dont hate the idea of pivetta closing but he's also never done it and I guess I have a hard time just throwing him into that role not knowing. To me he's more valuable in the rotation at least to start the year with the other unknowns in the rotation. I think it'll be cheaper to get bullpen help than it will to get another starter.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 29, 2021 16:01:19 GMT -5
I dont hate the idea of pivetta closing but he's also never done it and I guess I have a hard time just throwing him into that role not knowing. To me he's more valuable in the rotation at least to start the year with the other unknowns in the rotation. I think it'll be cheaper to get bullpen help than it will to get another starter. He's such an enigma. Pivetta has the talent to be truly good. But he's so damn inconsistent. Of the pitchers on the Sox staff, he's the most likely to throw a no-hitter. When he is on, he is on and can be unhittable. When he's not, there's too many walks and HRs and you never know which Pivetta you're going to get. I think he might be a good closer, but then again perhaps those same problems, walks and HRs plague him in that role, too. He could be a 15 - 20 game winner (with pitching peripherals to match) if he could be more consistent. He has a long enough track record you can justify moving him over to closer as I do think he's the best closing option the Sox currently have on their roster. But he did pitch well enough often enough to make me want to see more as a starter, although I wouldn't consider him somebody who should be a 3rd starter on the Sox staff. I'm not really sure which they go with him. I'd like to see the Sox get Rodon or Stroman so the option to use Pivetta as the closer becomes a better possibility. Of course, I'd like to see the Sox add two high leverage relievers (if not necessarily a closer).
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Post by baseball3 on Dec 1, 2021 4:53:55 GMT -5
Was thinking about the closers role and who would be best on the team (currently) to serve it not named Whitlock, who's hopefully starting.
Pivetta is too erratic. Eovaldi is a starter. Everyone in the bullpen would serve better roles if they're not closing.
Then I thought about Wacha.
Fastball low to mid 90s. Great changeup. Command and control guy. These dudes work perfectly in short bursts. Can even maybe get his velocity to stay in the mid 90's on one inning stints.
Wacha does not do a whole lot starting anyways. 1 WAR proven starting pitcher. If he was a great closer, he could raise it to 2 WAR or more. I think his career and the Sox would benefit from it. 7 million is the going rate for good relievers anyways these days.
I'm not sure the free agent market is great for elite relievers. With Iglesias' new deal, it seems overpriced either way also.
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Post by dajubaisasoxfan on Dec 1, 2021 8:49:41 GMT -5
Bullpen needs work & is going to need innings pitched with the way the starting pitching is shaping up so, let’s add; Jakob Junis, Zack Davies & John Gant.
If Paxton gets $10m for 1/2 year & Wacha gets $8m, these 3 should cost what, close to $60m total for 1 year? Ha! Hopefully less then that once the season finally gets underway, in what June/July & players are scrambling to find jobs & teams are scrambling to fill their needs.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 6, 2021 18:26:02 GMT -5
Was thinking about the closers role and who would be best on the team (currently) to serve it not named Whitlock, who's hopefully starting. Pivetta is too erratic. Eovaldi is a starter. Everyone in the bullpen would serve better roles if they're not closing. Then I thought about Wacha. Fastball low to mid 90s. Great changeup. Command and control guy. These dudes work perfectly in short bursts. Can even maybe get his velocity to stay in the mid 90's on one inning stints. Wacha does not do a whole lot starting anyways. 1 WAR proven starting pitcher. If he was a great closer, he could raise it to 2 WAR or more. I think his career and the Sox would benefit from it. 7 million is the going rate for good relievers anyways these days. I'm not sure the free agent market is great for elite relievers. With Iglesias' new deal, it seems overpriced either way also. I kind of doubt that Wacha's going to be in the bullpen, at least to start the season. He started 23 of his 29 appearances last year and 90% of his career appearances are starts. He's also had an issue with HRs since 2018.
I'm starting to warm up to the idea of Kenley Jansen on a 1- or 2-year deal. His walks were up a little last year but he doesn't give up a lot of bombs or hard contact in general. His OPS-against last season was .501, his lowest since 2017, which is pretty good considering he's been relying a lot less on the cutter.
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Post by soxaddict on Dec 14, 2021 3:30:36 GMT -5
With Cincinnati cutting payroll, Justin Wilson stands out as a Bloom type acquisition. He’s due to make $2.3m in 2022, which would probably require to add a 40FV prospect like C, Jackson Miller to move him.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 19, 2021 9:50:57 GMT -5
I've wanted Archie Bradley for years, yet certainly can't make a case for him based on last years numbers. Yet a cheap one year bounce back deal intrigues me. If he can get back to his 2017-2019 type guy, yet again he's trending downwards the more he moves away from having started. So I'd stretch him out, get him back to working on starting in spring training. Reminds me of Papelbon, the samething happened to him.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 19, 2021 10:02:58 GMT -5
I've wanted Archie Bradley for years, yet certainly can't make a case for him based on last years numbers. Yet a cheap one year bounce back deal intrigues me. If he can get back to his 2017-2019 type guy, yet again he's trending downwards the more he moves away from having started. So I'd stretch him out, get him back to working on starting in spring training. Reminds me of Papelbon, the samething happened to him. I was hoping they'd go after Bradley last offseason so I'm with you. I think he could be a great option on a bounce back deal. Last year was a down year compared to his previous few but he still had a 4.35 FIP and 4.01 xEra according to baseball reference. He got 1 year 6 million last year, if they can get him for something similar I'd be all for it. Add a guy like chafin on top of Bradley and I think that'd be the makings of a good bullpen.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Mar 21, 2022 14:51:04 GMT -5
During today's game radio broadcast, Bradfo reports that Josh Taylor is unlikely to start the season due to a lingering back issue.
That may partially explain Holland, Diekman, and Strahm...
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Post by jmei on Mar 21, 2022 16:58:39 GMT -5
C. Tangential. Not sure why a lot of people seem to believe Barnes is gonna revert back to first half success. If he does, i can almost guarantee it won't be for the whole year. There isn't anything that tells us that kind of success is sustainable after 6 years of him being a Sox. Matt Barnes, last six seasons (2016 to 2021), ranks 22nd amongst qualified relievers in fWAR, 47th in park- and league-adjusted FIP, 21st in park- and league-adjusted xFIP. If we go last three seasons (2019 to 2021), it's 19th, 35th and 9th, respectively. All that despite a terrible 2020 COVID-shortened season (-0.1 fWAR, 5.10 FIP, 4.84 xFIP).
He's not an elite reliever, but he's a very good one, albeit with some notable ups and downs.
ADD: moved this post to the bullpen thread, where it fits better.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Mar 21, 2022 19:36:19 GMT -5
I've wanted Archie Bradley for years, yet certainly can't make a case for him based on last years numbers. Yet a cheap one year bounce back deal intrigues me. If he can get back to his 2017-2019 type guy, yet again he's trending downwards the more he moves away from having started. So I'd stretch him out, get him back to working on starting in spring training. Reminds me of Papelbon, the samething happened to him. I was so hoping that he would have a great career. Got his autograph on the back of a jersey when he was in the minors. I think he was a top-10 overall pick.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2022 21:41:59 GMT -5
C. Tangential. Not sure why a lot of people seem to believe Barnes is gonna revert back to first half success. If he does, i can almost guarantee it won't be for the whole year. There isn't anything that tells us that kind of success is sustainable after 6 years of him being a Sox. Matt Barnes, last six seasons (2016 to 2021), ranks 22nd amongst qualified relievers in fWAR, 47th in park- and league-adjusted FIP, 21st in park- and league-adjusted xFIP. If we go last three seasons (2019 to 2021), it's 19th, 35th and 9th, respectively. All that despite a terrible 2020 COVID-shortened season (-0.1 fWAR, 5.10 FIP, 4.84 xFIP).
He's not an elite reliever, but he's a very good one, albeit with some notable ups and downs.
ADD: moved this post to the bullpen thread, where it fits better. Agree 100 percent. Additionally, I would add that Barnes has been heavily used 2016-18 as DD never gave him enough help, but the same has been the case 2019-21 under Bloom. The last six years he has pitched a lot of innings for a reliever. I would love to see Barnes results if the bullpen had more reliable arms, so that Barnes would not have to close every game that was a save situation. 66.2 -2016 69.2 -2017 61.2 -2018 64.1 -2019 2020 was the 60 game year 2021 we know what happened
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Mar 21, 2022 21:48:36 GMT -5
Matt Barnes, last six seasons (2016 to 2021), ranks 22nd amongst qualified relievers in fWAR, 47th in park- and league-adjusted FIP, 21st in park- and league-adjusted xFIP. If we go last three seasons (2019 to 2021), it's 19th, 35th and 9th, respectively. All that despite a terrible 2020 COVID-shortened season (-0.1 fWAR, 5.10 FIP, 4.84 xFIP).
He's not an elite reliever, but he's a very good one, albeit with some notable ups and downs.
ADD: moved this post to the bullpen thread, where it fits better. Agree 100 percent. Additionally, I would add that Barnes has been heavily used 2016-18 as DD never gave him enough help, but the same has been the case 2019-21 under Bloom. The last six years he has pitched a lot of innings for a reliever. I would love to see Barnes results if the bullpen had more reliable arms, so that Barnes would not have to close every game that was a save situation. 66.2 -2016 69.2 -2017 61.2 -2018 DD never gave him enough help? He was the help… they had Kimbrel. Last year Otto was supposed to be more help than he turned out to be. This year, I’d love to have one guy I feel like is the 8th inning dude. Might have to be Whitlock.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Mar 22, 2022 13:02:22 GMT -5
C. Tangential. Not sure why a lot of people seem to believe Barnes is gonna revert back to first half success. If he does, i can almost guarantee it won't be for the whole year. There isn't anything that tells us that kind of success is sustainable after 6 years of him being a Sox. Matt Barnes, last six seasons (2016 to 2021), ranks 22nd amongst qualified relievers in fWAR, 47th in park- and league-adjusted FIP, 21st in park- and league-adjusted xFIP. If we go last three seasons (2019 to 2021), it's 19th, 35th and 9th, respectively. All that despite a terrible 2020 COVID-shortened season (-0.1 fWAR, 5.10 FIP, 4.84 xFIP).
He's not an elite reliever, but he's a very good one, albeit with some notable ups and downs.
ADD: moved this post to the bullpen thread, where it fits better. Yes. his career walk rate is 4.1/9. unless that is cleaned up, it will never allow for a prolonged period of success, which is the point I was trying to make.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 23, 2022 4:17:17 GMT -5
Matt Barnes, last six seasons (2016 to 2021), ranks 22nd amongst qualified relievers in fWAR, 47th in park- and league-adjusted FIP, 21st in park- and league-adjusted xFIP. If we go last three seasons (2019 to 2021), it's 19th, 35th and 9th, respectively. All that despite a terrible 2020 COVID-shortened season (-0.1 fWAR, 5.10 FIP, 4.84 xFIP).
He's not an elite reliever, but he's a very good one, albeit with some notable ups and downs.
ADD: moved this post to the bullpen thread, where it fits better. Yes. his career walk rate is 4.1/9. unless that is cleaned up, it will never allow for a prolonged period of success, which is the point I was trying to make. That was cleaned up in the first 4 months of last season as he cut that in half after being shown the analytics that his stuff was good enough to go after hitters and stop trying to paint the corners. So he did clean that up and was dominant. In regards to what happened come August, sticky stuff? overworked? injury? I don't know but their is hope that he can be that good again as far as I am concerned.
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Post by jphelan on Mar 25, 2022 15:10:23 GMT -5
Darwinzon did not look sharp today- fastball around 90-91 on the Braves broadcast.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Mar 25, 2022 16:37:29 GMT -5
I’d like to see Bazardo in Boston to start the year.
Darwinzon walks too many guys to be a reliable bullpen piece. He could’ve been a LOOGY back before the rules change.
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 25, 2022 16:51:38 GMT -5
Gonna be tough to keep Bazardo on the 40 man if he doesn't make the opening day 28.
They could relieve some 40 man pressure by giving one of Crawford/Seabold/Winck a big league job. Crawford would be the only one of those three I'd bet on.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Mar 27, 2022 15:07:34 GMT -5
This is starting to become a more urgent issue than the single page of comments might indicate. Brasier's velo is down and neither Diekman, Darwinzon, nor Sawamura can find the plate. Opportunities for Bazardo, Robles, Garza, and Feliz, who has had a solid spring thus far. Bracho, Cole, Danish, Gillies, Feltman, Kelly, Schrieber... anyone want to step up and grab a job by the throat?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Mar 27, 2022 15:09:46 GMT -5
Gonna be tough to keep Bazardo on the 40 man if he doesn't make the opening day 28. They could relieve some 40 man pressure by giving one of Crawford/Seabold/Winck a big league job. Crawford would be the only one of those three I'd bet on. Bazardo has options remaining, so they can send him down without passing him through waivers.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Mar 27, 2022 15:20:19 GMT -5
I am not confident in this bullpen. Going into last year, I thought at least Ottavino to Barnes would be solid (it wasn’t great). This year, going into the season I’m less confident. I think they *have* to keep Whitlock in the pen, much as I want to see him start. I don’t trust anyone else.
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