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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 22, 2021 19:39:15 GMT -5
The main difference between what Correa will get and what Xander will get is that Xander will be 3 years older. Exactly, Correa's 10/300 will be a 9/270 when X asks for 7/210
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 22, 2021 20:27:27 GMT -5
The main difference between what Correa will get and what Xander will get is that Xander will be 3 years older. Exactly, Correa's 10/300 will be a 9/270 when X asks for 7/210 But isn’t it that when you give a 27YO 10/300 you are counting on him being underpaid ages 28-30 even if he will be overpaid pages 35-37? Why would Xander get paid as much as Correa for ages 31-37 if the bargain years 28-30 are not part of the deal? Out of gratitude?
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 22, 2021 21:27:44 GMT -5
Exactly, Correa's 10/300 will be a 9/270 when X asks for 7/210 But isn’t it that when you give a 27YO 10/300 you are counting on him being underpaid ages 28-30 even if he will be overpaid pages 35-37? Why would Xander get paid as much as Correa for ages 31-37 if the bargain years 28-30 are not part of the deal? Out of gratitude? Do you not think Xander will command $30m per? Xander's bargain years end the day his opt out can kick in
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Post by soxaddict on Dec 23, 2021 0:39:12 GMT -5
Absolutely NOT on Correa. We already have a quality SS who won't cost as much long term. On top of that, X isn't a bush league prick who spends a lot of time on the IL. We also KNOW he works out well in our little fish bowl. Hunker down and rally around our own. Again, re-sign our own guys and focus on quality depth across the roster/system. It's likely that one or two of the young fellas will provide cushion for investing big in Bogaerts and/or Devers. Dangit, I forgot why I'm supposed to hate Correa again.
In any case, here's another comment from the Goldstein chat:
Haha, I don't mind Correa being a bush league prick. My issue is he's only had two seasons where he's played more than 110+ games. A $300M/10 year contract looks like a disaster. I'll take Xander at $210M/7 years, if that's an option and stick him at 3B or LF in another year or two.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 23, 2021 3:44:43 GMT -5
This has probably been mentioned, as I haven't been through the entire thread. Story's home and away splits are stark: there's a 220 point difference in his OPS. He appears to be a creature of Coors. He's not the first one of course. There's a track record for those who left mile-high and crashed to earth. Just a guess but he'll have to really sign with an outfit that isn't concerned with that data if he expects big money.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 23, 2021 7:13:16 GMT -5
But isn’t it that when you give a 27YO 10/300 you are counting on him being underpaid ages 28-30 even if he will be overpaid pages 35-37? Why would Xander get paid as much as Correa for ages 31-37 if the bargain years 28-30 are not part of the deal? Out of gratitude? Do you not think Xander will command $30m per? Xander's bargain years end the day his opt out can kick in The lack of competition will help that year, but isn't Semien' 7/175 a better comp for Xander than a batter defensive shortstops $30M per? Semien was a year older but was coming off a 6.6 fWAR, 7.3 bWAR season in which he hit 45 HRs and won a Gold Glove, proving again that he can thrive at 2b. And only a poorly run team that has no chance at winning offered him 7/175.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 23, 2021 9:06:17 GMT -5
Do you not think Xander will command $30m per? Xander's bargain years end the day his opt out can kick in The lack of competition will help that year, but isn't Semien' 7/175 a better comp for Xander than a batter defensive shortstops $30M per? Semien was a year older but was coming off a 6.6 fWAR, 7.3 bWAR season in which he hit 45 HRs and won a Gold Glove, proving again that he can thrive at 2b. And only a poorly run team that has no chance at winning offered him 7/175. I tend to agree on this - that X won't get 30 million/year. He's already going to be 30 by time he's a free agent and his SS days are numbered, which isn't exactly a secret. He's a 3b/2b/LF for most of the next contract he signs. I think he'll get about 27 million/year because he probably does play SS for another season or two and is better than Semien, more consistent. If the Sox are getting absolutely nowhere with Devers, I can see the Sox signing X to about 7 years, about 190 million with the intention of moving him to 3b for the 2024 season. I'd guess by then the Sox would get a stop gap SS for a year or two until Mayer is knocking down the door.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 23, 2021 9:43:35 GMT -5
This has probably been mentioned, as I haven't been through the entire thread. Story's home and away splits are stark: there's a 220 point difference in his OPS. He appears to be a creature of Coors. He's not the first one of course. There's a track record for those who left mile-high and crashed to earth. Just a guess but he'll have to really sign with an outfit that isn't concerned with that data if he expects big money. There are some who says Coors produces exaggerated splits on both ends, that Coors helps hitters at home but hurts them when they go on the road, because it's hard to adjust to pitches behaving differently at altitude and sea level. This 2016 story cites 5 people who did fine after leaving Coors, including Matt Holliday: www.draysbay.com/2016/1/29/10868328/coors-field-hitters-corey-dickerson-analysisThis guy adds Tulo and others roxpile.com/2020/02/24/coors-field-colorado-rockies-offense-effect/3/Nolan Arenado's first year away from Coors was better than his last year there, but worse than his peak. Here is an attempt to predict how he would do: sites.northwestern.edu/nusportsanalytics/2021/01/26/forecasting-nolan-arenado-outside-of-coors-field/For all hitters, it's hard to separate leaving Coors from simple aging and injuries.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 23, 2021 11:54:57 GMT -5
The lack of competition will help that year, but isn't Semien' 7/175 a better comp for Xander than a batter defensive shortstops $30M per? Semien was a year older but was coming off a 6.6 fWAR, 7.3 bWAR season in which he hit 45 HRs and won a Gold Glove, proving again that he can thrive at 2b. And only a poorly run team that has no chance at winning offered him 7/175. I tend to agree on this - that X won't get 30 million/year. He's already going to be 30 by time he's a free agent and his SS days are numbered, which isn't exactly a secret. He's a 3b/2b/LF for most of the next contract he signs. I think he'll get about 27 million/year because he probably does play SS for another season or two and is better than Semien, more consistent. If the Sox are getting absolutely nowhere with Devers, I can see the Sox signing X to about 7 years, about 190 million with the intention of moving him to 3b for the 2024 season. I'd guess by then the Sox would get a stop gap SS for a year or two until Mayer is knocking down the door. Idk if I'd be so quick to say he's better than Semien. Semien started his career worse, but he finished 3rd in the MVP voting in each of the last two full seasons (8.4 and 7.3 bWAR; Xander had 6.3 and 4.9). Xander is a bad defensive SS while Semien is an above average SS and great 2B. He also played all 162 games both seasons, so he's proven to be extremely durable.
If Semien had just gone off for one year I'd be inclined to think it was just a career year, but to do it in both 2019 and 2021... that says to me that he's the real deal. Xander may be a year younger, but Semien has been playing at a much higher level for the past few years and therefore does not deserve a cheaper contract. I'd be alright with a deal for Xander in the ballpark of the 7/175 that Semien got, and if it takes a bit more cash to get it done I wouldn't lose sleep over it. Still, I'm seeing numbers thrown out in the neighborhood of 6-7 years at 30 million AAV and that does feel like an overpay for a 30 y/o Xander Bogaerts. At that point I'd have happily taken Semien at 7/175 instead and I don't even love that contract.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 23, 2021 12:07:11 GMT -5
I tend to agree on this - that X won't get 30 million/year. He's already going to be 30 by time he's a free agent and his SS days are numbered, which isn't exactly a secret. He's a 3b/2b/LF for most of the next contract he signs. I think he'll get about 27 million/year because he probably does play SS for another season or two and is better than Semien, more consistent. If the Sox are getting absolutely nowhere with Devers, I can see the Sox signing X to about 7 years, about 190 million with the intention of moving him to 3b for the 2024 season. I'd guess by then the Sox would get a stop gap SS for a year or two until Mayer is knocking down the door. Idk if I'd be so quick to say he's better than Semien. Semien started his career worse, but he finished 3rd in the MVP voting in each of the last two full seasons (8.4 and 7.3 bWAR; Xander had 6.3 and 4.9). Xander is a bad defensive SS while Semien is an above average SS and great 2B. He also played all 162 games both seasons, so he's proven to be extremely durable. If Semien had just gone off for one year I'd be inclined to think it was just a career year, but to do it in both 2019 and 2021... that says to me that he's the real deal. Xander may be a year younger, but Semien has been playing at a much higher level for the past few years and therefore does not deserve a cheaper contract. I'd be alright with a deal for Xander in the ballpark of the 7/175 that Semien got, and if it takes a bit more cash to get it done I wouldn't lose sleep over it. Still, I'm seeing numbers thrown out in the neighborhood of 6-7 years at 30 million AAV and that does feel like an overpay for a 30 y/o Xander Bogaerts. At that point I'd have happily taken Semien at 7/175 instead and I don't even love that contract.
I guess I just see Semien as a guy who has been ordinary for the bulk of his career with the overwhelming exceptions of 2019 and 2021, so yes I can see how he'd be evaluated higher than Bogaerts. But to me, Bogaerts has been well above average just about every year since 2015. Yes, his defense drags down his numbers, but if he were playing 2b or 3b instead that might change the math. Obviously I no longer think of Semien as a 1 year wonder as 2021 was extremely impressive and of course, great timing, a 2nd career year (if such a thing exists) after a pillow contract, and voila, big payday. Maybe 2019 and 2021 is more indicative of Semien now, but you'd have to kind of disregard 2020, which some people do due to the nature of the season, but even then, Xander was his usual consistent productive self while Semien kind of reverted back to what he was for the bulk of his career. I think X winds up between Semien and the 30 million level because I don't think that he'll wind up in the Correa/Lindor tier even if he's been as good offensively if not better - it's because of the defense of course.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 23, 2021 13:44:30 GMT -5
I tend to agree on this - that X won't get 30 million/year. He's already going to be 30 by time he's a free agent and his SS days are numbered, which isn't exactly a secret. He's a 3b/2b/LF for most of the next contract he signs. I think he'll get about 27 million/year because he probably does play SS for another season or two and is better than Semien, more consistent. If the Sox are getting absolutely nowhere with Devers, I can see the Sox signing X to about 7 years, about 190 million with the intention of moving him to 3b for the 2024 season. I'd guess by then the Sox would get a stop gap SS for a year or two until Mayer is knocking down the door. Idk if I'd be so quick to say he's better than Semien. Semien started his career worse, but he finished 3rd in the MVP voting in each of the last two full seasons (8.4 and 7.3 bWAR; Xander had 6.3 and 4.9). Xander is a bad defensive SS while Semien is an above average SS and great 2B. He also played all 162 games both seasons, so he's proven to be extremely durable.
If Semien had just gone off for one year I'd be inclined to think it was just a career year, but to do it in both 2019 and 2021... that says to me that he's the real deal. Xander may be a year younger, but Semien has been playing at a much higher level for the past few years and therefore does not deserve a cheaper contract. I'd be alright with a deal for Xander in the ballpark of the 7/175 that Semien got, and if it takes a bit more cash to get it done I wouldn't lose sleep over it. Still, I'm seeing numbers thrown out in the neighborhood of 6-7 years at 30 million AAV and that does feel like an overpay for a 30 y/o Xander Bogaerts. At that point I'd have happily taken Semien at 7/175 instead and I don't even love that contract.
I don't know that I'd say he's played at a *much* higher level, but othrwisee this all seems fair. Still, I'd be gritting my teeth if my team signed Semien. It might turn out fine, but also he's a 31 year old whose third best xwOBA season in his career was only .306. Even 2021, his second best year, was only .331, which he considerably overperformed with a .368 wOBA. (He seems to generally overperform his xwOBAs by about 20 points, but still, I'd bet against him having another .350 wOBA season.)
Bogaerts, meanwhile, has been extraordinarily consistent, with a higher xwOBA than Semien's 2021 every year since 2018. Even if he slides down the defensive spectrum the bat ought to play for a while.
By the way, Bogaerts has sort of sneakily set himself on a Hall of Fame trajectory I think. It all depends on his longevity, but if he keeps up his current peak for 3 more years and then adds on 5 or 6 averageish years after that - reasonable expectations if he stays healthy - he'll be closing in on the 60 WAR threshold, and maybe 300 HRs and 2500 hits.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 23, 2021 14:08:25 GMT -5
Idk if I'd be so quick to say he's better than Semien. Semien started his career worse, but he finished 3rd in the MVP voting in each of the last two full seasons (8.4 and 7.3 bWAR; Xander had 6.3 and 4.9). Xander is a bad defensive SS while Semien is an above average SS and great 2B. He also played all 162 games both seasons, so he's proven to be extremely durable. If Semien had just gone off for one year I'd be inclined to think it was just a career year, but to do it in both 2019 and 2021... that says to me that he's the real deal. Xander may be a year younger, but Semien has been playing at a much higher level for the past few years and therefore does not deserve a cheaper contract. I'd be alright with a deal for Xander in the ballpark of the 7/175 that Semien got, and if it takes a bit more cash to get it done I wouldn't lose sleep over it. Still, I'm seeing numbers thrown out in the neighborhood of 6-7 years at 30 million AAV and that does feel like an overpay for a 30 y/o Xander Bogaerts. At that point I'd have happily taken Semien at 7/175 instead and I don't even love that contract.
I don't know that I'd say he's played at a *much* higher level, but othrwisee this all seems fair. Still, I'd be gritting my teeth if my team signed Semien. It might turn out fine, but also he's a 31 year old whose third best xwOBA season in his career was only .306. Even 2021, his second best year, was only .331, which he considerably overperformed with a .368 wOBA. (He seems to generally overperform his xwOBAs by about 20 points, but still, I'd bet against him having another .350 wOBA season.)
Bogaerts, meanwhile, has been extraordinarily consistent, with a higher xwOBA than Semien's 2021 every year since 2018. Even if he slides down the defensive spectrum the bat ought to play for a while. By the way, Bogaerts has sort of sneakily set himself on a Hall of Fame trajectory I think. It all depends on his longevity, but if he keeps up his current peak for 3 more years and then adds on 5 or 6 averageish years after that - reasonable expectations if he stays healthy - he'll be closing in on the 60 WAR threshold, and maybe 300 HRs and 2500 hits.
I know it sounds "silly" to say, but I think 3000 hits are Xander's ticket to Cooperstown. He started young enough that if he can maintain for the bulk of his 30s he should reach that milestone and I think that would get him into the HOF. He's been a very consistent player for awhile now. If they play a full season he should reach 1400 hits through his age 29 season, so he'll have to stay consistent for the next 8 - 10 years. The odds are against him reaching 3000 hits. 2500 hits is a more reasonable expectation, but I don't know if he'd be the shoo-in at 2500 hits that he'd be at 3000 hits. Not saying he wouldn't get in with 2500 hits and 300 HRs, but he might have to wait awhile.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 23, 2021 14:28:21 GMT -5
I don't know that I'd say he's played at a *much* higher level, but othrwisee this all seems fair. Still, I'd be gritting my teeth if my team signed Semien. It might turn out fine, but also he's a 31 year old whose third best xwOBA season in his career was only .306. Even 2021, his second best year, was only .331, which he considerably overperformed with a .368 wOBA. (He seems to generally overperform his xwOBAs by about 20 points, but still, I'd bet against him having another .350 wOBA season.)
Bogaerts, meanwhile, has been extraordinarily consistent, with a higher xwOBA than Semien's 2021 every year since 2018. Even if he slides down the defensive spectrum the bat ought to play for a while. By the way, Bogaerts has sort of sneakily set himself on a Hall of Fame trajectory I think. It all depends on his longevity, but if he keeps up his current peak for 3 more years and then adds on 5 or 6 averageish years after that - reasonable expectations if he stays healthy - he'll be closing in on the 60 WAR threshold, and maybe 300 HRs and 2500 hits.
I know it sounds "silly" to say, but I think 3000 hits are Xander's ticket to Cooperstown. He started young enough that if he can maintain for the bulk of his 30s he should reach that milestone and I think that would get him into the HOF. He's been a very consistent player for awhile now. If they play a full season he should reach 1400 hits through his age 29 season, so he'll have to stay consistent for the next 8 - 10 years. The odds are against him reaching 3000 hits. 2500 hits is a more reasonable expectation, but I don't know if he'd be the shoo-in at 2500 hits that he'd be at 3000 hits. Not saying he wouldn't get in with 2500 hits and 300 HRs, but he might have to wait awhile. Oh, at 3000 hits - with the longevity that entails - he's a no-doubter. The only guys with 3000 hits who aren't in the HOF (or won't get there as soon as they're eligible) are Palmeiro and Alex Rodriguez, and Xander shouldn't have their... issues. I think at 2500 hits he'd probably be about where Todd Helton is now; not as high of an offensive peak, but as a shortstop and without the Coors Field deduction working against him. And I do think Helton will get voted in by the BBWAA eventually.
To this point in Xander's career, of course, the most obvious comp is Derek Jeter.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 23, 2021 14:37:21 GMT -5
If X falls well short of 3,000 hits, his HOF chances could depend on how long he's able to stay at SS. Alan Trammell and Barry Larkin were both short of 2,400 hits, but spent their careers at SS and got plaques. X is only halfway to 2,400 and most of us agree a move to another position would be best within another couple of years. But he wouldn't be the first bad SS who managed to stay at the position. He wouldn't even be the first one in the AL East. He wouldn't even be the first one in the AL East who wore No. 2.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 23, 2021 14:51:26 GMT -5
If X falls well short of 3,000 hits, his HOF chances could depend on how long he's able to stay at SS. Alan Trammell and Barry Larkin were both short of 2,400 hits, but spent their careers at SS and got plaques. X is only halfway to 2,400 and most of us agree a move to another position would be best within another couple of years. But he wouldn't be the first bad SS who managed to stay at the position. He wouldn't even be the first one in the AL East. He wouldn't even be the first one in the AL East who wore No. 2. True, but that one had almost 3500 hits. Xander is likely to fall very well short of that and won't calcify at SS the way Jeter did. I figure he has at most this year and next year at SS. Even if he's extended it's hard to imagine him sticking around at SS until Mayer is ready. Yeah, 3000 hits is a slam dunk minus anything stupid such as betting on your team or being a steroids guy, but he's in that gray area at 2500 hits because a big chunk of them won't come as a SS. My guess is that he winds up at 3b long-term. If he leaves, not playing at Fenway, could hurt his numbers over the long-term. It's not the same extreme, but it's probable that Fred Lynn would be in Cooperstown now if he hadn't left the Red Sox and a home ballpark he had a .350 lifetime average in. Xander isn't as extreme, but he certainly benefits from home cooking. It's not thin air, but Fenway is a boost to him (it boosted Yaz as well). At this point I think the odds are good that X opts out and the Sox extend him (as I read that they're not getting anywhere with Devers and my guess is Devers goes to free agency and sees what other offers are out there).
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Post by incandenza on Dec 23, 2021 15:19:25 GMT -5
If X falls well short of 3,000 hits, his HOF chances could depend on how long he's able to stay at SS. Alan Trammell and Barry Larkin were both short of 2,400 hits, but spent their careers at SS and got plaques. X is only halfway to 2,400 and most of us agree a move to another position would be best within another couple of years. But he wouldn't be the first bad SS who managed to stay at the position. He wouldn't even be the first one in the AL East. He wouldn't even be the first one in the AL East who wore No. 2. True, but that one had almost 3500 hits. Xander is likely to fall very well short of that and won't calcify at SS the way Jeter did. I figure he has at most this year and next year at SS. Even if he's extended it's hard to imagine him sticking around at SS until Mayer is ready. Yeah, 3000 hits is a slam dunk minus anything stupid such as betting on your team or being a steroids guy, but he's in that gray area at 2500 hits because a big chunk of them won't come as a SS. My guess is that he winds up at 3b long-term. If he leaves, not playing at Fenway, could hurt his numbers over the long-term. It's not the same extreme, but it's probable that Fred Lynn would be in Cooperstown now if he hadn't left the Red Sox and a home ballpark he had a .350 lifetime average in. Xander isn't as extreme, but he certainly benefits from home cooking. It's not thin air, but Fenway is a boost to him (it boosted Yaz as well). At this point I think the odds are good that X opts out and the Sox extend him (as I read that they're not getting anywhere with Devers and my guess is Devers goes to free agency and sees what other offers are out there). You are really committed to this "not getting anywhere with Devers" belief, which has, as near as I can tell, no evidence whatsoever beyond the mere fact that it hasn't happened yet. But here are two things Bloom has said: 1) extensions tend to get negotiated around spring training; 2) extending Devers is a top priority for the Red Sox this offseason.
And I continue to think that Xander leaves after next season. I hate it, but I don't see Bloom extending him through his 30s.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 23, 2021 15:37:42 GMT -5
True, but that one had almost 3500 hits. Xander is likely to fall very well short of that and won't calcify at SS the way Jeter did. I figure he has at most this year and next year at SS. Even if he's extended it's hard to imagine him sticking around at SS until Mayer is ready. Yeah, 3000 hits is a slam dunk minus anything stupid such as betting on your team or being a steroids guy, but he's in that gray area at 2500 hits because a big chunk of them won't come as a SS. My guess is that he winds up at 3b long-term. If he leaves, not playing at Fenway, could hurt his numbers over the long-term. It's not the same extreme, but it's probable that Fred Lynn would be in Cooperstown now if he hadn't left the Red Sox and a home ballpark he had a .350 lifetime average in. Xander isn't as extreme, but he certainly benefits from home cooking. It's not thin air, but Fenway is a boost to him (it boosted Yaz as well). At this point I think the odds are good that X opts out and the Sox extend him (as I read that they're not getting anywhere with Devers and my guess is Devers goes to free agency and sees what other offers are out there). You are really committed to this "not getting anywhere with Devers" belief, which has, as near as I can tell, no evidence whatsoever beyond the mere fact that it hasn't happened yet. But here are two things Bloom has said: 1) extensions tend to get negotiated around spring training; 2) extending Devers is a top priority for the Red Sox this offseason. And I continue to think that Xander leaves after next season. I hate it, but I don't see Bloom extending him through his 30s.
Well, I agree with you that one of them is likely staying. Just don't agree on which one. I've read that they've had zero traction on any talks with Devers so far. True, they won't get serious until spring training, whenever the hell that is, but my opinion is that there will be no hometown discount and Devers is looking to get a huge contract, and I'm not convinced the Sox are willing to go there. Bogaerts will not cost as much as Devers and might come at a slight discount. That said, I wouldn't be 100% shocked if you were right about that and he let Bogaerts go, not wanting to commit to a guy in his 30s, but I think he will make Devers a top priority and if/when he realizes that he won't be able to extend him without paying Arenado money for 10 - 12 years, he'll circle back to Bogaerts and see if he can get a deal done there. That is my opinion until I'm proven wrong and if/when I am, I will say I was wrong (gladly). Wouldn't be the first time I was wrong. Won't be the last time I was wrong, but until then I think X is the more likelier of the two to stay. We don't have to agree on that opinion. We'll see how it plays out. My head wants you to be right. My heart wants you to be wrong - I think X should be a lifelong Sox player like I think he wants to be. Hell, my bleeding heart wants BOTH of them extended, but I think we can agree that's not realistic and probably not even a good idea if we think with our head instead of our heart.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 23, 2021 15:44:31 GMT -5
You are really committed to this "not getting anywhere with Devers" belief, which has, as near as I can tell, no evidence whatsoever beyond the mere fact that it hasn't happened yet. But here are two things Bloom has said: 1) extensions tend to get negotiated around spring training; 2) extending Devers is a top priority for the Red Sox this offseason. And I continue to think that Xander leaves after next season. I hate it, but I don't see Bloom extending him through his 30s.
Well, I agree with you that one of them is likely staying. Just don't agree on which one. I've read that they've had zero traction on any talks with Devers so far. True, they won't get serious until spring training, whenever the hell that is, but my opinion is that there will be no hometown discount and Devers is looking to get a huge contract, and I'm not convinced the Sox are willing to go there. Bogaerts will not cost as much as Devers and might come at a slight discount. That said, I wouldn't be 100% shocked if you were right about that and he let Bogaerts go, not wanting to commit to a guy in his 30s, but I think he will make Devers a top priority and if/when he realizes that he won't be able to extend him without paying Arenado money for 10 - 12 years, he'll circle back to Bogaerts and see if he can get a deal done there. That is my opinion until I'm proven wrong and if/when I am, I will say I was wrong (gladly). Wouldn't be the first time I was wrong. Won't be the last time I was wrong, but until then I think X is the more likelier of the two to stay. We don't have to agree on that opinion. We'll see how it plays out. My head wants you to be right. My heart wants you to be wrong - I think X should be a lifelong Sox player like I think he wants to be. Hell, my bleeding heart wants BOTH of them extended, but I think we can agree that's not realistic and probably not even a good idea if we think with our head instead of our heart. Yeah, not much more to say than: we'll see. But one way or another, Bloom is eventually going to spend big on somebody - you can't fill up a $200 million payroll with Rich Hills and Kiké Hernandezes alone.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 23, 2021 15:51:38 GMT -5
Well, I agree with you that one of them is likely staying. Just don't agree on which one. I've read that they've had zero traction on any talks with Devers so far. True, they won't get serious until spring training, whenever the hell that is, but my opinion is that there will be no hometown discount and Devers is looking to get a huge contract, and I'm not convinced the Sox are willing to go there. Bogaerts will not cost as much as Devers and might come at a slight discount. That said, I wouldn't be 100% shocked if you were right about that and he let Bogaerts go, not wanting to commit to a guy in his 30s, but I think he will make Devers a top priority and if/when he realizes that he won't be able to extend him without paying Arenado money for 10 - 12 years, he'll circle back to Bogaerts and see if he can get a deal done there. That is my opinion until I'm proven wrong and if/when I am, I will say I was wrong (gladly). Wouldn't be the first time I was wrong. Won't be the last time I was wrong, but until then I think X is the more likelier of the two to stay. We don't have to agree on that opinion. We'll see how it plays out. My head wants you to be right. My heart wants you to be wrong - I think X should be a lifelong Sox player like I think he wants to be. Hell, my bleeding heart wants BOTH of them extended, but I think we can agree that's not realistic and probably not even a good idea if we think with our head instead of our heart. Yeah, not much more to say than: we'll see. But one way or another, Bloom is eventually going to spend big on somebody - you can't fill up a $200 million payroll with Rich Hills and Kiké Hernandezes alone. He will and perhaps he'll extend for Suzuki or sign Story for 3 years at big money (really hope he doesn't). But I don't expect him to spend on a huge contract until around the time Mayer, Yorke, and Casas are in the majors and a wave of young talent is coming up behind them. That's when I think he'll strike for some 300 million plus contract. This is not a "he's cheap" thing. It's a "he'll spend, but I think he spreads the money around more until a bigger more productive part of the roster is younger and cheaper and it'll make more sense to spend on top talent." kind of thing. That's why I'm not taking the Correa talk seriously or think he's going to spend upwards of $325 million or whatever amount it would take to give Devers to forego free agency with a very reasonable thought that he can top what Arenado/Rendon are making.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 23, 2021 19:55:58 GMT -5
Yeah, not much more to say than: we'll see. But one way or another, Bloom is eventually going to spend big on somebody - you can't fill up a $200 million payroll with Rich Hills and Kiké Hernandezes alone. He will and perhaps he'll extend for Suzuki or sign Story for 3 years at big money (really hope he doesn't). But I don't expect him to spend on a huge contract until around the time Mayer, Yorke, and Casas are in the majors and a wave of young talent is coming up behind them. That's when I think he'll strike for some 300 million plus contract. This is not a "he's cheap" thing. It's a "he'll spend, but I think he spreads the money around more until a bigger more productive part of the roster is younger and cheaper and it'll make more sense to spend on top talent." kind of thing. That's why I'm not taking the Correa talk seriously or think he's going to spend upwards of $325 million or whatever amount it would take to give Devers to forego free agency with a very reasonable thought that he can top what Arenado/Rendon are making. In terms of the waiting until the next wave of prospects come. I do wonder if maybe there is some thought to strike before they're up. Maybe sign a Correa to 10 years 300 mil deal now and then by the time Mayer and Yorke are ready in 2 or 3 yrars that's a 7 year 210 mil deal. If those guys pan out you get them for 6 years under current rules and by the time you really have to pay them Correa is down to 1 or 2 years left. It's kind of simplistic to look at it but I do think Bloom probably has flexibility in the payroll to add a guy like Correa if he thinks it would put them over the edge to world series competitors.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 24, 2021 8:33:43 GMT -5
Do you not think Xander will command $30m per? Xander's bargain years end the day his opt out can kick in The lack of competition will help that year, but isn't Semien' 7/175 a better comp for Xander than a batter defensive shortstops $30M per? Semien was a year older but was coming off a 6.6 fWAR, 7.3 bWAR season in which he hit 45 HRs and won a Gold Glove, proving again that he can thrive at 2b. And only a poorly run team that has no chance at winning offered him 7/175. Xander has a much better track record than Semien. Semien has only had two seasons where he had a wRC+ over 100. As of today, Xander has 6 more career fWAR and is 2 years younger.
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Post by gk2186 on Jan 19, 2022 8:19:27 GMT -5
Not that i wanted him on this team anyway but Correa announced he switched agencies to the Boras Corp. Looks like he will try to top Seager's deal
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jan 19, 2022 11:55:32 GMT -5
Correa is looking for 330-350. I don't see the market there. Hes not exactly a great bet to stay healthy either. Fantasic season but I'd pass. Just because the Rangers were dumb enough to give Seager 325 doesn't justify another dumb contract...
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 19, 2022 14:34:21 GMT -5
It should be noted that Correa's previous agents' (parent company) are attempting to purchase 9 minor league franchises and the MLBPA sees it as a conflict of interest.
So he may have been in the market for a new agent by default.
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Post by prospectlove on Jan 19, 2022 15:09:55 GMT -5
Correa is looking for 330-350. I don't see the market there. Hes not exactly a great bet to stay healthy either. Fantasic season but I'd pass. Just because the Rangers were dumb enough to give Seager 325 doesn't justify another dumb contract... Dont' forget what the new collective bargaining agreement might do to GMs and owners. Many teams LOVE to spend money when they have space and lose all track of common sense. They blow up their budget and then wait for that mistake headline making free agent contract to expire before their replacement GM runs out and does that same common error. (Even Theo did this in some of this moves and I have high admiration for what he accomplished) I think it is fair to say at that rate, you can almost count of Correa not being a red sox. If you are going to spend that money why not just sign Xander to same deal
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