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(2021 thread) Red Sox Sign Michael Wacha to a One Year Deal
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 27, 2021 11:02:43 GMT -5
I guess this means Chaim is confident that Wacha's HR problems, which have plagued him since June of 2018, were finally fixed in September of 2021.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 27, 2021 11:38:07 GMT -5
7m… ha! What the hell - now they better be blowing through the tax line.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 27, 2021 12:27:55 GMT -5
7m… ha! What the hell - now they better be blowing through the tax line. Fangraphs has them at $190 million for luxury tax purposes. Assuming a bullpen addition or two, they're not adding a Baez or a Schwarber without going over. (CBA caveat yadda yadda.)
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Nov 27, 2021 13:08:35 GMT -5
I guess this means Chaim is confident that Wacha's HR problems, which have plagued him since June of 2018, were finally fixed in September of 2021. I’m totally fine with giving the benefit of the doubt on the “we can rebuild him” approach to FAs, but it is pretty risky. Last year’s projects were hit and miss. I just worry that organizations are not *so* different that only a few have magic touches… if most guys are fixable, it seems like one team could do it as well as another. Now, there are so many factors like ballparks, defenses, even personal happiness… but I am skeptical of building on guys you think you can squeeze upside out of.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 27, 2021 13:16:09 GMT -5
Don’t get the consternation on 7M, he projects to be worth 1 WAR, that’s just about the value of a win. Maybe they think they can keep him to that end of season version, not like the upside isn’t there.
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Post by notstarboard on Nov 27, 2021 13:31:36 GMT -5
Don’t get the consternation on 7M, he projects to be worth 1 WAR, that’s just about the value of a win. Maybe they think they can keep him to that end of season version, not like the upside isn’t there. Well, if memory serves he got 1/1.6ish in 2020 to be bad for the Mets, then he got 1/3ish in 2021 to be bad for Tampa, and now he just somehow parlayed that into 1/7. I'm not saying that Wacha will definitely suck in 2022 and I'm sure Bloom has good reason for being interested. This just feels like way too much money to pay for a guy like this. Eating innings is only so valuable when your performance in those innings is shaky.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 27, 2021 13:47:28 GMT -5
Don’t get the consternation on 7M, he projects to be worth 1 WAR, that’s just about the value of a win. Maybe they think they can keep him to that end of season version, not like the upside isn’t there. Well, if memory serves he got 1/1.6ish in 2020 to be bad for the Mets, then he got 1/3ish in 2021 to be bad for Tampa, and now he just somehow parlayed that into 1/7. I'm not saying that Wacha will definitely suck in 2022 and I'm sure Bloom has good reason for being interested. This just feels like way too much money to pay for a guy like this. Eating innings is only so valuable when your performance in those innings is shaky. But I’m saying it’s not way too much money because it’s exactly what he projects to be worth, and what he was worth last year by FIP. Also, Bloom has shown no indication that he bids against himself, so it appears this was the market price, and I’m saying I don’t know why that’s so surprising.
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Post by notstarboard on Nov 27, 2021 13:47:53 GMT -5
$7 million isn't supposed to buy you a Game 2 of the World Series starter you feel good about. If he has a 2021 Garrett Richards season, the Red Sox did good on the contract. Hard disagree there. Richards was worth .3 bWAR and 1.0 fWAR. He also put up a revolting 5.59 xERA. If you trust fWAR and the ol' $6-8 million per WAR for a FA scale, sure, getting this kind of output at $7 million seems fine. Then you look at the xERA and the fact that Erod could've been brought back for a shade over twice that much cash, and it starts to look really terrible. Martin Perez got what, $4.5 million to put up .5 bWAR / .6 fWAR / 5.59 xERA (same as Richards) last season? Is that level of production now worth $7 million? Seems strange, since we declined Perez's $6 million option for 2022 and that was seen as a no brainer. I don't think Wacha's arm is dead by any means, but I'm surprised that after multiple years of teams thinking he could be fixed, and being wrong, that this year we're so sure about it that we think he's worth $7 million. Literally his only good underlying metrics are walk rate and chase rate. Everything else is crap. This may be the first acquisition from Bloom that I'm really scratching my head about. He'd better have good reason for confidence. That, or the team had better be planning to shatter the LT threshold in 2022 (assuming no major CBA changes). In that case, a bit of an overpay here would really be no big deal. 2022 also just makes sense to spend big in given how many impact players on favorable deals we're losing after this year (namely Kiké, Eovaldi, probably Xander).
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Post by incandenza on Nov 27, 2021 14:40:56 GMT -5
$7 million isn't supposed to buy you a Game 2 of the World Series starter you feel good about. If he has a 2021 Garrett Richards season, the Red Sox did good on the contract. Hard disagree there. Richards was worth .3 bWAR and 1.0 fWAR. He also put up a revolting 5.59 xERA. If you trust fWAR and the ol' $6-8 million per WAR for a FA scale, sure, getting this kind of output at $7 million seems fine. Then you look at the xERA and the fact that Erod could've been brought back for a shade over twice that much cash, and it starts to look really terrible. Martin Perez got what, $4.5 million to put up .5 bWAR / .6 fWAR / 5.59 xERA (same as Richards) last season? Is that level of production now worth $7 million? Seems strange, since we declined Perez's $6 million option for 2022 and that was seen as a no brainer. I don't think Wacha's arm is dead by any means, but I'm surprised that after multiple years of teams thinking he could be fixed, and being wrong, that this year we're so sure about it that we think he's worth $7 million. Literally his only good underlying metrics are walk rate and chase rate. Everything else is crap. This may be the first acquisition from Bloom that I'm really scratching my head about. He'd better have good reason for confidence. That, or the team had better be planning to shatter the LT threshold in 2022 (assuming no major CBA changes). In that case, a bit of an overpay here would really be no big deal. 2022 also just makes sense to spend big in given how many impact players on favorable deals we're losing after this year (namely Kiké, Eovaldi, probably Xander). I dunno, Perez got $5 million, Wacha got $7 million, Heaney got $8 million; this all just seems like the going rate for "not very good starting pitchers, but if you squint at their peripherals/pedigree/recent adjustments there might be something there."
ADD: We really need ericmvan to pop in here with an explanation of how his second-order intra-divisional batting order splits should lead us to expect a sub-3 ERA or something.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 27, 2021 14:52:53 GMT -5
I guess this means Chaim is confident that Wacha's HR problems, which have plagued him since June of 2018, were finally fixed in September of 2021. I worry that "he had a great September after changing his pitch usage, now he just needs to keep it up" is the sweet spot for "actually the league just didn't have enough time to make its own adjustments to his new usage."
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Nov 27, 2021 15:13:30 GMT -5
Kinda reminds me of the late career Masterson signing
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 27, 2021 15:41:04 GMT -5
Don’t get the consternation on 7M, he projects to be worth 1 WAR, that’s just about the value of a win. Maybe they think they can keep him to that end of season version, not like the upside isn’t there. Well, if memory serves he got 1/1.6ish in 2020 to be bad for the Mets, then he got 1/3ish in 2021 to be bad for Tampa, and now he just somehow parlayed that into 1/7. I'm not saying that Wacha will definitely suck in 2022 and I'm sure Bloom has good reason for being interested. This just feels like way too much money to pay for a guy like this. Eating innings is only so valuable when your performance in those innings is shaky. If memory serves? He was paid $3M in 2020. Correction: he signed for $3M and was paid 1.6 in the shortened season.
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Post by kcbosox on Nov 27, 2021 16:32:25 GMT -5
Overpay.
Was looking for Rodon, McHugh, Melancon, Kelly (if cheap). Rodon 3/45. Others 2/34 total.
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Post by notstarboard on Nov 27, 2021 16:38:09 GMT -5
Hard disagree there. Richards was worth .3 bWAR and 1.0 fWAR. He also put up a revolting 5.59 xERA. If you trust fWAR and the ol' $6-8 million per WAR for a FA scale, sure, getting this kind of output at $7 million seems fine. Then you look at the xERA and the fact that Erod could've been brought back for a shade over twice that much cash, and it starts to look really terrible. Martin Perez got what, $4.5 million to put up .5 bWAR / .6 fWAR / 5.59 xERA (same as Richards) last season? Is that level of production now worth $7 million? Seems strange, since we declined Perez's $6 million option for 2022 and that was seen as a no brainer. I don't think Wacha's arm is dead by any means, but I'm surprised that after multiple years of teams thinking he could be fixed, and being wrong, that this year we're so sure about it that we think he's worth $7 million. Literally his only good underlying metrics are walk rate and chase rate. Everything else is crap. This may be the first acquisition from Bloom that I'm really scratching my head about. He'd better have good reason for confidence. That, or the team had better be planning to shatter the LT threshold in 2022 (assuming no major CBA changes). In that case, a bit of an overpay here would really be no big deal. 2022 also just makes sense to spend big in given how many impact players on favorable deals we're losing after this year (namely Kiké, Eovaldi, probably Xander). I dunno, Perez got $5 million, Wacha got $7 million, Heaney got $8 million; this all just seems like the going rate for "not very good starting pitchers, but if you squint at their peripherals/pedigree/recent adjustments there might be something there."
ADD: We really need ericmvan to pop in here with an explanation of how his second-order intra-divisional batting order splits should lead us to expect a sub-3 ERA or something.
Heaney was much better than Wacha the past few years by advanced stats, though. His 2021 xERA was a shade over 4 to go with good K rates, BB rates, and chase rates. I would have been fine with Wacha at Perez money, happy even, but 1/5 with a club option for the next season is pretty different than 1/7 without an option. I would have been much happier with Heaney at 1/8 than Wacha at 1/7.
Would appreciate some optimism about Wacha, but the way I see it, you lose a chunk of the value a player like Wacha could provide right from the get go when you overpay for a relatively weak starter; like, the higher you're paying, the more he needs to bounce back in order for him to add value to the team. Still, part of me wonders if there's something teams have picked up on that they're extremely confident they can fix, since this guy has been doubling his salary year over year while pitching pretty terribly. Maybe it's as simple as "drop the cutter", but I haven't seen enough to expect anything more than Perez-esque performance.
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Post by notstarboard on Nov 27, 2021 16:42:33 GMT -5
Well, if memory serves he got 1/1.6ish in 2020 to be bad for the Mets, then he got 1/3ish in 2021 to be bad for Tampa, and now he just somehow parlayed that into 1/7. I'm not saying that Wacha will definitely suck in 2022 and I'm sure Bloom has good reason for being interested. This just feels like way too much money to pay for a guy like this. Eating innings is only so valuable when your performance in those innings is shaky. If memory serves? He was paid $3M in 2020. 1.6 was his adjusted salary per Spotrac because of the shortened season - that's what I was remembering ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Post by soxinsf on Nov 27, 2021 20:04:30 GMT -5
$7 million isn't supposed to buy you a Game 2 of the World Series starter you feel good about. If he has a 2021 Garrett Richards season, the Red Sox did good on the contract. This may be the first acquisition from Bloom that I'm really scratching my head about. He'd better have good reason for confidence. That, or the team had better be planning to shatter the LT threshold in 2022 (assuming no major CBA changes). In that case, a bit of an overpay here would really be no big deal. No matter how you slice it, any deal in this price range, whether for Perez and Richards or Wacha or Heaney, is a crap shoot. I do not mean to say that Bloom got lucky last year, but Bloom got lucky last year with Whitlock, Kiké, Renfroe. The hope, of course, is that he gets more lucky than unlucky going forward as long as he is with the Sox. You also have to expect that there will be list of Marwins, Dannies, Perezes etc because that goes with the territory in baseball deals--and the bad luck can be expensive, as we have found out. So Wacha is a crap shoot. He had a good last 40 innings, and he had some very good starts. Oh, and I would be very surprised, not to mention disappointed and pissed off, if the Sox do not exceed the LT level this year.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 27, 2021 20:06:38 GMT -5
If memory serves? He was paid $3M in 2020. 1.6 was his adjusted salary per Spotrac because of the shortened season - that's what I was remembering ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ ah, you mean what he was actually paid. I meant the contract he “got”. But you are right and I misspoke.
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Post by dirtdog on Nov 27, 2021 21:18:31 GMT -5
Sigh, Getting the Garrett Richards blues all over again.
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Post by notstarboard on Nov 27, 2021 21:34:26 GMT -5
1.6 was his adjusted salary per Spotrac because of the shortened season - that's what I was remembering ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ ah, you mean what he was actually paid. I meant the contract he “got”. But you are right and I misspoke. I was also remembering the wrong thing - thanks for the correction!
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 27, 2021 22:17:19 GMT -5
Bloom is always mining the margins to advantage ala Rays. He did so last year and improved the team greatly. I'm all in favor of his use of his electron microscope to discern favorable player anomalies in baseball's cosmic background radiation.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 28, 2021 0:41:25 GMT -5
Apparently, he doesn't know about SoxProspects.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 28, 2021 3:05:03 GMT -5
I thought they'd be signing an established guy to fit into the middle of the rotation, quite possibly a LHP (Rodon? Hill?), plus an upside guy who can pitch out of the pen and add depth. Perfectly happy with Wacha as the latter.
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Post by nuttyredsox on Nov 28, 2021 7:45:01 GMT -5
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 28, 2021 10:57:42 GMT -5
7 million seems like a high figure to pay for a guy who has been well below average for awhile.
I hope Bloom is right about Wacha's last 40 innings being a true indicator of what he can be in 2022. He was awful in his appearance against the Sox in the ALDS after he supposedly turned the corner.
I'd rather have seen the Sox use that money for a higher caliber starter to replace E-Rod.
Now I wonder what they're willing to spend to bring in a quality starter that you'd want to give a postseason start to.
I've seen in mentioned that Wacha is supposed to fill Andriese's spot, but that doesn't sound right to me, not at that money.
That's money for a back end starter or an 8th inning setup guy.
I hope it's not money wasted based on a hot stretch
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 28, 2021 11:02:45 GMT -5
The Rays upgraded from Wacha to Kluber for 8 million and incentives.
For an extra million I'd rather have signed Kluber. At least when he pitches he consistently gets batters out.
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