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Red Sox Trade Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers
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Post by incandenza on Dec 9, 2021 14:11:33 GMT -5
I'm not gonna get into a debate about RBIs, but I will just say that teams value players for projected future performance, not past performance, which is the relevant issue when we're talking about a trade like this. That's why I think the projections for next season are more relevant than last season's stats. I'll grant you, though, that he was about average last season, and has been (sans 2020) since 2018.
You can argue that the projections are underestimating his future performance for whatever reason. But they feel about right to me.
Take a look at the projection column way to the right on the bwar projections for players and you will see at the top the letters "rel". It stands for reliability and is just a percentage of former stats that is used to determine future stats, it is usually a regression of 15-20%. So all they are doing is taking a percentage of what has been done and projecting everyone will regress by 15 to 20 %. LOL I mean really you think that matters to the guys running teams? Projecting is obviously not an exact science but there is next to nothing in the way of scouting involved or real analysis if all you are doing is picking a % and regressing everyone down. How about we use bwar projections for Chris Sale next season who they have a rel of 49%. 81 innings, 4.11 era, 1.259 whip, no fip prediction. He has a career 5.3 k/w rate but next yr 3.6. Basically the worst season of his career. Do we want to put much stock in that? For other guys who were having really good seasons and then missed time with injuries they still regress them down. It doesn't even make sense sometimes. I dunno, I'm just looking at the steamer projection; b-ref uses Marcel, which everyone agrees is super simplistic. But see my addendum - I think steamer might be too pessimistic.
I totally agree with you that it's way too simplistic to just rely on public projection systems. I totally agree with you that you can make a more sophisticated projection by incorporating scouting and deeper analysis. I totally agree with you that teams have more sophisticated methods for making their own projections. The steamer projection is just a convenient starting point.
So feel free to make the case. What is your prediction for Renfroe's WAR total next season? Why do you think steamer is underestimating him?
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 9, 2021 14:20:31 GMT -5
I feel like we've gone around on this point like three times, but his offensive production was below average for a right fielder (which is how I referred to him - a "below average RFer"). And by overall fWAR he was slightly below average (just slightly above average by bWAR) but projects to be a sub-2 WAR player next season, i.e., below average.
Anyways... semantics. I accept that Renfroe will probably be better than JBJ in 2022, but as we've all discussed ad infinitum in this thread the broader context is that they're going to upgrade from Renfroe, and we'll see where we're at once they make that move. I swore I wasn't going to get into it again with you but this is like 5 posts I have ignored you saying Renfroe is below average and I can't help myself. Based on what he just did last yr you just admitted he was average based on both bwar and fwar so it is only a projection that has him below so that means very little to me. You know what does matter to me? Runs, last I checked runs are what wins games and the reality of scoring runs vs an equation that tries to determine value are 2 different things and need to be balanced. Give me a team of guys who have 89 runs, 31 hrs and 96 rbis and my team is going to win a lot of games and most likely a championship. That is not below average IMO. IMO analysis should be balanced. Of qualified batters Hunter Renfroe was 82nd out of 132 in WPA, if you want to use results-only metrics. Also just in general, a player who has been below average for his career is more likely to be below average again than he is to repeat his career high (which was at best very slightly above average). That's not always the case, maybe he materially changed, but it's not ridiculous to think Hunter Renfroe is the norm rather than the exception. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 9, 2021 14:27:35 GMT -5
If you takeout the crazy limited 2020 Covid season, which I do for every player good or bad. He hasn't had an OPS+ above average since 2016. His average in that time went from .267, .245, .234, .225 and .163. Now that's a pattern and it's not a good one. Sure 2020 looks good, yet crazy year with a crazy limited amount of games and we all know Bradley is streaky. You just got a hot streak with no 100 games more to get his cold streaks. It's Baseball and almost anything can happen. So sure there's a chance Bradley finally adjust to the shifts, adjusts his swing for more contact and less power, etc. It's just not likely, Renfroe is likely going to be better by a wide margin. It's why the Brewers trade two prospects to dump him for Renfroe. Steamers projects just that. Part of me liking Blooms moves last year, was not buying into the 2020 stats. Letting Bradley leave and signing Renfroe. Nevermind what's the free agent cost for a good defensive CF that can't hit? How many of those guys are stuck in AAA that you could easily trade for? Jackie Bradley bouncing back if it happens in any meaningful way, still likely makes him a below average hitter. I'll say it now, better chance he gets DFA than bounces back to 2020 levels and it's not even close. Now I hope I'm 100% wrong. I've got a lo love for Bradley and I want the Red Sox to be great. Yet I don't like this one bit, Bradley hasn't adjusted anything since that adjustment on his second call up from the minors. Always thought he'd readjust more into the middle of what he was in the minors versus majors. It just never happened. You love to talk about BA and OPS+ but you're missing a lot of people here with those stats. Others are more likely to look at a cleaner representation of offensive production (like wRC+) or underlying performance stats (like xwOBA). In regards to which:
| wRC+
| xwOBA | 2016
| 118
| .325 | | 2017 | 89 | .311 | | 2018 | 90 | .344 | | 2019 | 89 | .312 | | 2021 | 35 | .257 |
These don't paint a picture of consistent decline, as you suggest, but of a plateau that leads to an abrupt cliff in 2021.
Sometimes guys fall of cliffs! That could be the case with JBJ. But sometimes guys have an injury-hampered year (like Bogaerts' 2017) and bounce back.
(Ironically, though, the xwOBA trend looks worse if you do include 2020, when he was at .305.)
WRC+ says the samething OPS+ does, hasn't been above average since 2016. Average matters as there are only two ways to offsett it declining an increase I power or more walks. Bradley's ISO .158, .169, .196, and .098 last year, strikeout rate 22.9%, 25.6%, 27.3% and 30.8%. There gets to a point where you can no longer offset the average with power and his BB% was also a career low last year. That's the trend that scares me. Baseball Refrence has him at a .210 average, if you think he can post 89 to 90 wRC+ where is that coming from? You'd need peak Bradley ISO and I don't think that will happen. Steamers has him at 76 for next year. Sure that's better, yet it's still a bad hitter, 24% below average. The best bet in my book is a completely different approach, yet I don't have much faith given he couldn't adjust to the shifts. |
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Post by threeifbaerga on Dec 9, 2021 14:35:25 GMT -5
Boy this thread really is the surest sign of a lockout.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 9, 2021 14:45:31 GMT -5
You love to talk about BA and OPS+ but you're missing a lot of people here with those stats. Others are more likely to look at a cleaner representation of offensive production (like wRC+) or underlying performance stats (like xwOBA). In regards to which:
| wRC+
| xwOBA | 2016
| 118
| .325 | | 2017 | 89 | .311 | | 2018 | 90 | .344 | | 2019 | 89 | .312 | | 2021 | 35 | .257 |
These don't paint a picture of consistent decline, as you suggest, but of a plateau that leads to an abrupt cliff in 2021.
Sometimes guys fall of cliffs! That could be the case with JBJ. But sometimes guys have an injury-hampered year (like Bogaerts' 2017) and bounce back.
(Ironically, though, the xwOBA trend looks worse if you do include 2020, when he was at .305.)
WRC+ says the samething OPS+ does, hasn't been above average since 2016. Average matters as there are only two ways to offsett it declining an increase I power or more walks. Bradley's ISO .158, .169, .196, and .098 last year, strikeout rate 22.9%, 25.6%, 27.3% and 30.8%. There gets to a point where you can no longer offset the average with power and his BB% was also a career low last year. That's the trend that scares me. Baseball Refrence has him at a .210 average, if you think he can post 89 to 90 wRC+ where is that coming from? You'd need peak Bradley ISO and I don't think that will happen. Steamers has him at 76 for next year. Sure that's better, yet it's still a bad hitter, 24% below average. The best bet in my book is a completely different approach, yet I don't have much faith given he couldn't adjust to the shifts. Assuming the sox sign a capable starting OF, is 24 percent below average for a 4th OFer who plays gold glove defense awful? Personally I don't think so. People will bring up the money owed and I'll agree JBJ is probably not worth what the sox will pay him this year and next if you count the buyout he's due. But I also think that's being a tad overblown as I'm guessing/hoping Bloom will still have the ability to go out and reinforce the team as he sees fit and not miss out on anyone due to budgetary restraints. If I'm wrong on the budget then yes this deal stinks for the short term and honestly probably will not pan out long term with the volatility of prospects unless JBJ somehow turns back the clock which I doubt happens. |
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Post by incandenza on Dec 9, 2021 14:52:27 GMT -5
You love to talk about BA and OPS+ but you're missing a lot of people here with those stats. Others are more likely to look at a cleaner representation of offensive production (like wRC+) or underlying performance stats (like xwOBA). In regards to which:
| wRC+
| xwOBA | 2016
| 118
| .325 | | 2017 | 89 | .311 | | 2018 | 90 | .344 | | 2019 | 89 | .312 | | 2021 | 35 | .257 |
These don't paint a picture of consistent decline, as you suggest, but of a plateau that leads to an abrupt cliff in 2021.
Sometimes guys fall of cliffs! That could be the case with JBJ. But sometimes guys have an injury-hampered year (like Bogaerts' 2017) and bounce back.
(Ironically, though, the xwOBA trend looks worse if you do include 2020, when he was at .305.)
WRC+ says the samething OPS+ does, hasn't been above average since 2016. Average matters as there are only two ways to offsett it declining an increase I power or more walks. Bradley's ISO .158, .169, .196, and .098 last year, strikeout rate 22.9%, 25.6%, 27.3% and 30.8%. There gets to a point where you can no longer offset the average with power and his BB% was also a career low last year. That's the trend that scares me. Baseball Refrence has him at a .210 average, if you think he can post 89 to 90 wRC+ where is that coming from? You'd need peak Bradley ISO and I don't think that will happen. Steamers has him at 76 for next year. Sure that's better, yet it's still a bad hitter, 24% below average. The best bet in my book is a completely different approach, yet I don't have much faith given he couldn't adjust to the shifts. Some good points here. But a .200/.300/.400 batting line is all they really need from him. Can he pull that off? I don't think that's guaranteed! But it's also not like they need him to post a 120 wRC+ to be useful. |
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Post by bosoxnation on Dec 9, 2021 18:55:24 GMT -5
The prospects are big news. The more we acquire the more trade bait and potential studs we have. This trade really can’t be graded for years to come. JBJ in CF just seems right. Look at the Braves regular season, look at the Giants. They have guys who hit below .250 and were just fine. Jackie also always steps up come playoff time. Did you guys forget what Hunter did in the postseason? He hit below .200 and led our team in strikeouts. Yeah i’m not going to miss him. He was a great signing and we got 2 prospects and an equal talented player for him. Great job Bloom! Meh. Even David Ortiz had post-seasons that weren't that great, not many, but I can't make a snap judgment that JBJ is always stepping up in the post-season because he had 3 well timed impactful hits in 15 ABs in the ALCS or that Renfroe is always a dud in the post-season. I remember A-Rod or Bonds couldn't hit in the post-season until they did or that David Price couldn't win one...until he did. All I'm saying is that if I'm going to judge Renfroe, I won't let a relatively small sample of the post-season atbats color my perception. It's a weighing factor toward the overall picture but not a summary judgment of his post season "abilities" or his entire season's body of work. We still got 2 prospects. That’s the bigger picture. One that was just drafted in the 3rd round this year. Renfroe only has 1 year left, JBJ the same. My opinion is that we won the trade due to after next year, both are free agents and we will still have the prospects for years to come. |
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 9, 2021 19:14:19 GMT -5
Meh. Even David Ortiz had post-seasons that weren't that great, not many, but I can't make a snap judgment that JBJ is always stepping up in the post-season because he had 3 well timed impactful hits in 15 ABs in the ALCS or that Renfroe is always a dud in the post-season. I remember A-Rod or Bonds couldn't hit in the post-season until they did or that David Price couldn't win one...until he did. All I'm saying is that if I'm going to judge Renfroe, I won't let a relatively small sample of the post-season atbats color my perception. It's a weighing factor toward the overall picture but not a summary judgment of his post season "abilities" or his entire season's body of work. We still got 2 prospects. That’s the bigger picture. One that was just drafted in the 3rd round this year. Renfroe only has 1 year left, JBJ the same. My opinion is that we won the trade due to after next year, both are free agents and we will still have the prospects for years to come. I think Renfroe has 2 years left befire free agency and thus far nobody has won the trade. For all you know the 2 prospects could wind up not amounting to more than a utility man and a AAAA DH who can only platoon. I suspect Binelas will be better than that but we won't know for awhile so to declare victory this early is kind of premature. |
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Post by soxaddict on Dec 9, 2021 22:32:16 GMT -5
Judging by the old CBA, cots has the Sox with $3.975M under the $210M LTT. So they obviously plan to exceed the LTT in 2022. Having said that, it makes no difference what JBJ makes. There is no way his salary prevents them from doing anything. Bloom grabbed two decent prospects and an elite defensive 4th OF for a guy he picked up for nothing last year. While I really enjoyed having Renfroe here, he's easily replaceable and the Sox numerous ways to improve short and long term, IMO.
Suzuki looks like an perfect fit. They could move Verdugo to RF, and sign Schwarber to play LF/1B/DH and/or use JD in the outfield. They could go big and sign Castellanos, Bryant or Conforto to play LF or go a little cheaper and sign McCutchen, Pham, Rosario or Soler. If blowing by the LTT is part of the plan, they could trade for another bad contract with a year remaining for someone like Blackmon, Myers, or Upton for prospects and cash. Make a bigger trade for someone like Montas and take back Piscotty to lower the prospect capital going out, or Ketel Marte and take back Peralta. Hell, they could even trade Verdugo for some really good prospects and sign a cheap platoon duo of something like Corey Dickerson, or Joc Pederson and Josh Harrison or Kevin Pillar. Point being, Renfroe was a necessary move to make to open the door for the next move.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 10, 2021 11:11:48 GMT -5
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 10, 2021 11:51:00 GMT -5
How can so many people look at where we are salary wise and say Bradley won't prevent any moves? Does no one think a Story large one year deal makes sense? Everyone wants Suzuki and we need bullpen help no? Leave some money for the deadline. Bradley costs 17.5 million in cash, yet 12 million for luxury tax purposes. That's the difference in having 30 million to spend compared to 42 million. I find so much of this comical after so many people made such a big deal about the money in the Benintendi trade.
Like I said before Bradley at 3 million as a 4th OF is something I give Bloom credit for. That's a good move money and risk wise. Put another way Bradley cost more money and has a higher luxury tax cost than any player Bloom has every acquired. My problem isn't Bradley as a 4th OF, it's him in that role at that money.
Are we really at the point that the Boston Red Sox can't spend 30 million on this team? You could spend more than that on Carlos Correa. A player you should at minimum kick the tires on.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 10, 2021 11:55:24 GMT -5
How can so many people look at where we are salary wise and say Bradley won't prevent any moves? Does no one think a Story large one year deal makes sense? Everyone wants Suzuki and we need bullpen help no? Leave some money for the deadline. Bradley costs 17.5 million in cash, yet 12 million for luxury tax purposes. That's the difference in having 30 million to spend compared to 42 million. I find so much of this comical after so many people made such a big deal about the money in the Benintendi trade. Like I said before Bradley at 3 million as a 4th OF is something I give Bloom credit for. That's a good move money and risk wise. Put another way Bradley cost more money and has a higher luxury tax cost than any player Bloom has every acquired. My problem isn't Bradley as a 4th OF, it's him in that role at that money. Are we really at the point that the Boston Red Sox can't spend 30 million on this team? You could spend more than that on Carlos Correa. A player you should at minimum kick the tires on. In my case because I believe that it won't prevent any moves going forward because I'm assuming that the luxury tax will rise in the new cba and that they are planning on going over this year anyway? If I'm wrong and you are right ill admit it then but can we please just wait and see what happens before either side proclaims themselves correct? There's a lot of time left this offseason. |
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Post by manfred on Dec 10, 2021 12:01:40 GMT -5
I’ve come around to this trade being almost entirely neutral, assuming that Renfroe’s trade value was not that high and that alternatives would look about the same.
I think people have made good points about Renfroe and JBJ, and assuming they sign a new OF, JBJ is at least a great defensive replacement. OTOH, Renfroe might he just good enough that the OF they sign could’ve been a platoon guy — so this is a give and take that is, again, kind of a push.
The big thing to me is reading about the prospects, I don’t see a high likelihood that they’ll matter much. So in about two years, I am guessing this trade will simply be forgotten. I compare it to the Beni trade: we give up a guy we figure has lost value for us, and we get…. not much. But not much for not much is not the end of the world.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 10, 2021 12:17:24 GMT -5
How can so many people look at where we are salary wise and say Bradley won't prevent any moves? Does no one think a Story large one year deal makes sense? Everyone wants Suzuki and we need bullpen help no? Leave some money for the deadline. Bradley costs 17.5 million in cash, yet 12 million for luxury tax purposes. That's the difference in having 30 million to spend compared to 42 million. I find so much of this comical after so many people made such a big deal about the money in the Benintendi trade. Like I said before Bradley at 3 million as a 4th OF is something I give Bloom credit for. That's a good move money and risk wise. Put another way Bradley cost more money and has a higher luxury tax cost than any player Bloom has every acquired. My problem isn't Bradley as a 4th OF, it's him in that role at that money. Are we really at the point that the Boston Red Sox can't spend 30 million on this team? You could spend more than that on Carlos Correa. A player you should at minimum kick the tires on. I gave my response to this complaint on the previous page of this thread, so I won't repeat myself. But just to tackle it from another angle:
Quite clearly, the reason they're overpaying for JBJ is to acquire the prospects. It's an investment in the future - trading payroll space now for the sake of (hopefully) getting cheap production in the future. (Essentially, it's the inverse of a long-term free agent signing where you overpay toward the end of the contract in order to gain the surplus value at the beginning.) And if you're ever going to do this, best to do it in a year when the team is going over the CBT. So is your objection just that payroll should never be used in this way?
Side note: I do not think it makes sense to sign Story to a one-year deal - for Story. Why the hell would he do that? Yes, in theory they could probably sign him or Correa or whomever to a one-year deal for like $100 million. But if the team were going to do that, the extra few million they're spending on JBJ is obviously not going to prevent them.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 10, 2021 14:41:31 GMT -5
Not giving up a 2nd round pick for one year of Story.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 10, 2021 15:47:46 GMT -5
Not giving up a 2nd round pick for one year of Story. Well, they didn't want to give up a 2nd-rounder for E-Rod on a fairly reasonable 5-year deal. Why would they give one up for one year of anyone?
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Dec 10, 2021 16:49:14 GMT -5
Interesting that amidst a couple of years of change that we could be looking at a progression from:
Beni in LF, JBJ in CF, Verdugo in RF to
Verdugo in LF, Kiké in CF, Renfroe in RF to
Verdugo in LF, Kiké/JBJ in CF, Suzuki/JBJ in RF.
That would be an improved defensive OF and at least on par offensively with 2021; perhaps better as Kiké and Dugie continue to stabilize at their new positions, and Suzukiâs combination of plate discipline, OBP, speed and Fenway swing power replaces Hunterâs true outcome approach. Awesome.
Two other things.
1. Before the trade there was general agreement that Renfroe could be traded, and he was. But in the inevitable complaints that followed, many continue to compare JBJâs 2022 salary against Renfroeâs 2021 salary, which is neither accurate nor fair. And in a season in which the team seems to be exceeding the cap it doesnât even matter.
2. Was 2021 Renfroe having a career year or had he figured it out? Did 2021 JBJ have an off year (3 separate injuries) or is his already streaky offense in decline? Any argument is guessing. Any assertions are merely speculation. We can hope both hit well. But we CAN be pretty certain that JBJ will, no matter how he is used, improve the 2022 Sox defense. Thatâs a big step forward this offseason.
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Post by soxaddict on Dec 10, 2021 17:24:38 GMT -5
How can so many people look at where we are salary wise and say Bradley won't prevent any moves? Does no one think a Story large one year deal makes sense? Everyone wants Suzuki and we need bullpen help no? Leave some money for the deadline. Bradley costs 17.5 million in cash, yet 12 million for luxury tax purposes. That's the difference in having 30 million to spend compared to 42 million. I find so much of this comical after so many people made such a big deal about the money in the Benintendi trade. Like I said before Bradley at 3 million as a 4th OF is something I give Bloom credit for. That's a good move money and risk wise. Put another way Bradley cost more money and has a higher luxury tax cost than any player Bloom has every acquired. My problem isn't Bradley as a 4th OF, it's him in that role at that money. Are we really at the point that the Boston Red Sox can't spend 30 million on this team? You could spend more than that on Carlos Correa. A player you should at minimum kick the tires on. If they don’t plan on exceeding the luxury tax limit, by a lot, then yeah the JBJ trade looks awful. As I said earlier, cots currently has the Red Sox at $3.975m shy of the previous limit of $210m. If those numbers are accurate, I don’t see any way they don’t blow past the luxury tax threshold no matter what that number is. |
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 10, 2021 17:50:36 GMT -5
How can so many people look at where we are salary wise and say Bradley won't prevent any moves? Does no one think a Story large one year deal makes sense? Everyone wants Suzuki and we need bullpen help no? Leave some money for the deadline. Bradley costs 17.5 million in cash, yet 12 million for luxury tax purposes. That's the difference in having 30 million to spend compared to 42 million. I find so much of this comical after so many people made such a big deal about the money in the Benintendi trade. Like I said before Bradley at 3 million as a 4th OF is something I give Bloom credit for. That's a good move money and risk wise. Put another way Bradley cost more money and has a higher luxury tax cost than any player Bloom has every acquired. My problem isn't Bradley as a 4th OF, it's him in that role at that money. Are we really at the point that the Boston Red Sox can't spend 30 million on this team? You could spend more than that on Carlos Correa. A player you should at minimum kick the tires on. If they don’t plan on exceeding the luxury tax limit, by a lot, then yeah the JBJ trade looks awful. As I said earlier, cots currently has the Red Sox at $3.975m shy of the previous limit of $210m. If those numbers are accurate, I don’t see any way they don’t blow past the luxury tax threshold no matter what that number is. I agree that they're definitely going over. Makes sense. John Henry made a statement about the Sox being ahead of schedule. Logic dictates when you don't expect to win you don't spend/cut costs. Logic dictates when you expect to be highly competitive you spend more and would be willing to go past the limit. I think had the Sox been an 85 win that they anticipated being in 2021 John Henry might have been more reluctant to go over the limit, whatever it is, in 2022. But coming off a 92 win season, just 6 wins from a Championship, they're going to spend as if they anticipate a legit shot at going to the World Series. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 11, 2021 12:48:24 GMT -5
How can so many people look at where we are salary wise and say Bradley won't prevent any moves? Does no one think a Story large one year deal makes sense? Everyone wants Suzuki and we need bullpen help no? Leave some money for the deadline. Bradley costs 17.5 million in cash, yet 12 million for luxury tax purposes. That's the difference in having 30 million to spend compared to 42 million. I find so much of this comical after so many people made such a big deal about the money in the Benintendi trade. Like I said before Bradley at 3 million as a 4th OF is something I give Bloom credit for. That's a good move money and risk wise. Put another way Bradley cost more money and has a higher luxury tax cost than any player Bloom has every acquired. My problem isn't Bradley as a 4th OF, it's him in that role at that money. Are we really at the point that the Boston Red Sox can't spend 30 million on this team? You could spend more than that on Carlos Correa. A player you should at minimum kick the tires on. I gave my response to this complaint on the previous page of this thread, so I won't repeat myself. But just to tackle it from another angle:
Quite clearly, the reason they're overpaying for JBJ is to acquire the prospects. It's an investment in the future - trading payroll space now for the sake of (hopefully) getting cheap production in the future. (Essentially, it's the inverse of a long-term free agent signing where you overpay toward the end of the contract in order to gain the surplus value at the beginning.) And if you're ever going to do this, best to do it in a year when the team is going over the CBT. So is your objection just that payroll should never be used in this way?
Side note: I do not think it makes sense to sign Story to a one-year deal - for Story. Why the hell would he do that? Yes, in theory they could probably sign him or Correa or whomever to a one-year deal for like $100 million. But if the team were going to do that, the extra few million they're spending on JBJ is obviously not going to prevent them.
The articles I'm seeing use Marcus Semiem as an example because Story had a down year after 3 straight top 12 MVP voting seasons in a row. Worst season with his bat since 2017. Takes a big one year deal, has a big year and gets the contract he likely wants next year. Also by big they aren't talking crazy either. It makes sense if Story isn't seeing the type of offers he wants right now no? I'm simply grading a trade. I'm actually all for buying prospects. I'm not against Hosmer as a platoon bat for Dalbec if the return is right. In this case I don't think Bloom got enough for Renfroe and eating 17.5 million in money. The Red Sox got German for eating a few million and you had multiple teams in on that and we got him because Bloom wanted the lesser prospect. Bloom should have gotten more or had the Brewers eat money. I'm not a huge fan of MLB trade rumors because some of their values are crazy. Like David Hamilton having a higher value than Alex Binelas and a guy like Arroyo being behind both, yet I do agree with how negative they have Bradley rated. They don't have those two prospects even equaling Bradley's negative value, nevermind Renfroes positive value. So I have no issue buying prospects, just make sure you get the return you should. How many teams were willing to eat 17.5 million for Bradley, while sending back an upgrade? Bloom had all the leverage in the world and I don't think he used it very well. |
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Post by incandenza on Dec 11, 2021 15:03:59 GMT -5
I gave my response to this complaint on the previous page of this thread, so I won't repeat myself. But just to tackle it from another angle:
Quite clearly, the reason they're overpaying for JBJ is to acquire the prospects. It's an investment in the future - trading payroll space now for the sake of (hopefully) getting cheap production in the future. (Essentially, it's the inverse of a long-term free agent signing where you overpay toward the end of the contract in order to gain the surplus value at the beginning.) And if you're ever going to do this, best to do it in a year when the team is going over the CBT. So is your objection just that payroll should never be used in this way?
Side note: I do not think it makes sense to sign Story to a one-year deal - for Story. Why the hell would he do that? Yes, in theory they could probably sign him or Correa or whomever to a one-year deal for like $100 million. But if the team were going to do that, the extra few million they're spending on JBJ is obviously not going to prevent them.
The articles I'm seeing use Marcus Semiem as an example because Story had a down year after 3 straight top 12 MVP voting seasons in a row. Worst season with his bat since 2017. Takes a big one year deal, has a big year and gets the contract he likely wants next year. Also by big they aren't talking crazy either. It makes sense if Story isn't seeing the type of offers he wants right now no? I'm simply grading a trade. I'm actually all for buying prospects. I'm not against Hosmer as a platoon bat for Dalbec if the return is right. In this case I don't think Bloom got enough for Renfroe and eating 17.5 million in money. The Red Sox got German for eating a few million and you had multiple teams in on that and we got him because Bloom wanted the lesser prospect. Bloom should have gotten more or had the Brewers eat money. I'm not a huge fan of MLB trade rumors because some of their values are crazy. Like David Hamilton having a higher value than Alex Binelas and a guy like Arroyo being behind both, yet I do agree with how negative they have Bradley rated. They don't have those two prospects even equaling Bradley's negative value, nevermind Renfroes positive value. So I have no issue buying prospects, just make sure you get the return you should. How many teams were willing to eat 17.5 million for Bradley, while sending back an upgrade? Bloom had all the leverage in the world and I don't think he used it very well. Okay, fair enough then. I just disagree that taking on JBJ's contract really hamstrings the team, for reasons I gave above. And I also don't think Hunter Renfroe's trade value is all that high - steamer projects 1.2 WAR and he's gonna make ~$7.6 million, and even though I personally expect he'll do a bit better than that projection, I still just think he's not that valuable a commodity. Could Bloom have gotten more than he did? Well, evidently he was open to offers, and this is the best one he got... |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 12, 2021 9:56:22 GMT -5
The articles I'm seeing use Marcus Semiem as an example because Story had a down year after 3 straight top 12 MVP voting seasons in a row. Worst season with his bat since 2017. Takes a big one year deal, has a big year and gets the contract he likely wants next year. Also by big they aren't talking crazy either. It makes sense if Story isn't seeing the type of offers he wants right now no? I'm simply grading a trade. I'm actually all for buying prospects. I'm not against Hosmer as a platoon bat for Dalbec if the return is right. In this case I don't think Bloom got enough for Renfroe and eating 17.5 million in money. The Red Sox got German for eating a few million and you had multiple teams in on that and we got him because Bloom wanted the lesser prospect. Bloom should have gotten more or had the Brewers eat money. I'm not a huge fan of MLB trade rumors because some of their values are crazy. Like David Hamilton having a higher value than Alex Binelas and a guy like Arroyo being behind both, yet I do agree with how negative they have Bradley rated. They don't have those two prospects even equaling Bradley's negative value, nevermind Renfroes positive value. So I have no issue buying prospects, just make sure you get the return you should. How many teams were willing to eat 17.5 million for Bradley, while sending back an upgrade? Bloom had all the leverage in the world and I don't think he used it very well. Okay, fair enough then. I just disagree that taking on JBJ's contract really hamstrings the team, for reasons I gave above. And I also don't think Hunter Renfroe's trade value is all that high - steamer projects 1.2 WAR and he's gonna make ~$7.6 million, and even though I personally expect he'll do a bit better than that projection, I still just think he's not that valuable a commodity. Could Bloom have gotten more than he did? Well, evidently he was open to offers, and this is the best one he got... So Bloom would never turn down a higher prospect? He turned Kahil Lee into two lesser prospects. A top ten guy, former top 100 guy on one list in 2019. Where does this trust come from? This isn't just directed at you, yet theirs a Bloom is a genius so we shouldn't question anything he does vibe on this board and I don't understand it. The parallels to Ben are rather big. No one thinks money matters because we're building a strong farm system and won't spend big. People can certainly have their opinions and I'll respect them, yet I just don't agree. The fact no one thinks money matters because we won't spend that much scares the hell out of me. Get the right free agents when you can, every free agent class isn't the same. Maybe the right deals aren't there, yet it should always be an option. The talk about Story and Suzuki actually gives me faith in Bloom, he'd be an idiot to not be in on guys like that. Renfroe's projections are rather crazy, it's a computer and it doesn't know what 2020 was. If you took that out, they would look much better. I think he’s a rather safe bet to be around 2 bwar, so that certainly has value at 7.6 million in my book. With another year of control also. |
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 12, 2021 12:32:45 GMT -5
Okay, fair enough then. I just disagree that taking on JBJ's contract really hamstrings the team, for reasons I gave above. And I also don't think Hunter Renfroe's trade value is all that high - steamer projects 1.2 WAR and he's gonna make ~$7.6 million, and even though I personally expect he'll do a bit better than that projection, I still just think he's not that valuable a commodity. Could Bloom have gotten more than he did? Well, evidently he was open to offers, and this is the best one he got... So Bloom would never turn down a higher prospect? He turned Kahil Lee into two lesser prospects. A top ten guy, former top 100 guy on one list in 2019. Where does this trust come from? This isn't just directed at you, yet theirs a Bloom is a genius so we shouldn't question anything he does vibe on this board and I don't understand it. The parallels to Ben are rather big. No one thinks money matters because we're building a strong farm system and won't spend big. People can certainly have their opinions and I'll respect them, yet I just don't agree. The fact no one thinks money matters because we won't spend that much scares the hell out of me. Get the right free agents when you can, every free agent class isn't the same. Maybe the right deals aren't there, yet it should always be an option. The talk about Story and Suzuki actually gives me faith in Bloom, he'd be an idiot to not be in on guys like that. Renfroe's projections are rather crazy, it's a computer and it doesn't know what 2020 was. If you took that out, they would look much better. I think he’s a rather safe bet to be around 2 bwar, so that certainly has value at 7.6 million in my book. With another year of control also. No one has made the assertion that Bloom is never turning down higher prospects. Obviously Bloom will always take the most value he possibly can, and if that means taking one or more guys ranked lower on x or y ranking list, then so be it. Freddy Valdez just turned 20 last week and Josh Winckowski is major league depth for 2022 and is currently our #13 prospect. Khalil Lee played well at AAA last year but only has 18 MLB PA; he's Fangraphs' #7 prospect in NYM's system, which is weaker than ours. You can be sure that the Mets were included in the trade because the Sox were higher on Valdez and Winckowski than they were on Lee, or any other combination of players the Royals were offering up instead of Lee. If the Sox lose out on more deals like this than they win over a significant sample size, then you'd have good reason to question Bloom's talent evaluation. Prospects are so high variance that you can't just point to one trade and be like "he didn't pick up the better prospect, so he messed up", though.
I also don't know what you mean by "The fact no one thinks money matters because we won't spend that much scares the hell out of me." The Red Sox have consistently run a high payroll in recent years, even through the rebuild. It doesn't make sense to go over the luxury tax all of the time, especially in seasons where you're not expecting to be competitive. Bloom not signing any big money FAs to this point is mostly a reflection of how much money the Sox already had committed and how barren the farm was when he took over. Correct me if I'm reading your argument wrong, but Bloom not going out and overpaying for guys like Scherzer or Semien is not evidence that the Sox are now Tampa North and won't spend.
So far, the only FA contract I've seen this fall that I'm sad we didn't match is the Erod deal, and I'm not going to flame them for one non-deal because I obviously have way less information than they do. If this sort of thing happens systematically and we never pay FAs ever again, then sure, get out the pitchforks. We'll know by the end of next offseason, when an insane amount of money comes off the books, if the doubters are right. The Sox are currently 5th in the majors for luxury tax payroll, though, with ~$6-7 million of space before the 2021 LT threshold (per Spotrac). The JBJ deal also gives every indication that we will acquire more FAs and spend up over the 2021 LT threshold. No matter how you slice it, this team very much is spending. I don't think it's fair to imply that FA deals haven't been an option. I'm sure they are. If the players are signing for a lot more than you think they're worth, though, there's no reason to panic and force a signing.
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That extra year of control on Renfroe doesn't have much value if he's a 2 WAR player at his peak. If he reprises his 2021 season in 2022 he'll probably be making what, $12-13 million in 2023 via arbitration in his age 31 season? There's not much value there, and it'd be even worse if he has a bad 2022. At that point he'd be a clear non-tender candidate. ~$7.6 million this year does have a bit of value but nothing spectacular. Provided Bloom spends over the 2021 LT threshold to fill the holes in the roster, namely RF and the bullpen, I think this trade makes a lot of sense for both sides.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 12, 2021 14:08:51 GMT -5
What notstarboard said. I'll just add two points. First, Renfroe's xwOBAs since 2017 have gone: .299, .322, .312, .296, .353. Maybe he suddenly figured something out in 2021 at age 29; or maybe it was a career high he's unlikely to match again. I'm sure the Red Sox have a better sense than we do as to which it is, and, well... they traded him.
Second, re: prospects, Bloom does seem willing to trade a dime for two nickels, a la the Lee for Winckoski/Valdez trade. But what's the basis for considering that lesser value? Two nickels is worth the same as a dime. If he's calculated that you have better chances of developing major league talent by spreading your chips around the table rather than betting big on a few squares, you have to do more than say "but he passed on the higher-ranked prospect to add two lower-ranked ones." Right - that was his strategy! What's your evidence that it's not a good strategy?
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Post by manfred on Dec 12, 2021 14:27:21 GMT -5
What notstarboard said. I'll just add two points. First, Renfroe's xwOBAs since 2017 have gone: .299, .322, .312, .296, .353. Maybe he suddenly figured something out in 2021 at age 29; or maybe it was a career high he's unlikely to match again. I'm sure the Red Sox have a better sense than we do as to which it is, and, well... they traded him. Second, re: prospects, Bloom does seem willing to trade a dime for two nickels, a la the Lee for Winckoski/Valdez trade. But what's the basis for considering that lesser value? Two nickels is worth the same as a dime. If he's calculated that you have better chances of developing major league talent by spreading your chips around the table rather than betting big on a few squares, you have to do more than say "but he passed on the higher-ranked prospect to add two lower-ranked ones." Right - that was his strategy! What's your evidence that it's not a good strategy? Would you trade a 70 prospect for 2 35s and a 20? It is profit. |
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