nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 1, 2022 16:51:20 GMT -5
Wickowski is too high for me, stuff is kind of meh across the board. I know he’s struggling now, but Crawford for me looks like a better pitcher. He seems like a kid with a great makeup though, so who knows? Maybe he’ll keep improving. Rafaela and Binelas are lower than my little brain has them. I know Lugo deserves the same praise, but I still can’t buy his ISO this year personally and don’t see the BB% to support the rest of his profile offensively. I think Winck, Seabold, Crawford, and Groome are all in a similar tier of “interesting, not blowing you away, but good enough where you need to see if they stick”. Crawford may actually have the most upside out of the pen if he can find form again, but probably is the least likely to stick as a starter.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 1, 2022 16:58:22 GMT -5
Well this answers my "what makes Groome a top 10 prospect, exactly?" question from the other day.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2022 17:34:52 GMT -5
Let me see if I can make this work: Rank Player Prev Change 1 Triston Casas 1 0 2 Marcelo Mayer 2 0 3 Nick Yorke 3 0 4 Jarren Duran 4 0 5 Brayan Bello 6 1 6 Jay Groome 8 2 7 Bryan Mata 10 3 8 Miguel Bleis 15 7 9 Brandon Walter 17 8 10 Blaze Jordan 7 -3 11 W. Gonzalez 12 1 12 Josh Winckowski 13 1 13 Jeter Downs 5 -8 14 Connor Seabold 11 -3 15 Chris Murphy 14 -1 16 Kutter Crawford 27 11 17 Tyler McDonough 21 4 18 G Jimenez 9 -9 19 C Rafaela 24 5 20 Thaddeus Ward 20 0 21 Alex Binelas 18 -3 22 Christian Koss 31 9 23 E Paulino 25 2 24 Ryan Fitzgerald 38 14 25 Brainer Bonaci 22 -3 26 David Hamilton 26 0 27 Connor Wong 16 -11 28 R Hernandez 23 -5 29 Matthew Lugo 28 -1 30 Nathan Hickey 29 -1 31 Eduardo Lopez 40 9 32 Enderso Lira 33 1 33 Nick Decker 30 -3 34 Eduard Bazardo 32 -2 35 Frank German 52 17 36 Jacob Wallace 41 5 37 Zack Kelly 24 38 Chih-Jung Liu 39 1 39 Wyatt Olds 58 19 40 J Wu-Yelland 35 -5 41 Juan Chacon 60 19 42 Victor Santos 34 -8 43 Brandon Howlett 50 7 44 Eduardo Vaughan 44 0 45 Durbin Feltman 48 3 46 Niko Kavadas 43 -3 47 Fraymi De Leon 46 -1 48 F Encarnacion 47 -1 49 Cameron Cannon 42 -7 50 Nathanael Cruz 59 9 51 Tyler Uberstine 10 52 Shane Drohan 36 -16 53 Luis Ravelo 8 54 Chase Shugart 7 55 Stephen Scott 51 -4 56 Jacob Webb 5 57 Reidis Sena 4 58 Miguel Ugueto 3 59 Kole Cottam 56 -3 60 Jedixson Paez 1 I understand that this is an intended outcome of the re-ranking philosophy you referenced, but dang seems a bit harsh to have Blaze Jordan drop. Especially to be overtaken by a 25 year old who hasn't yet thrown a single AA inning in Brandon Walter. …..and now Brandon Walter is in Worcester. I guess that was a good move.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jun 1, 2022 19:45:48 GMT -5
5 of the top 7 and 8 of the top 13 in Worcester
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 2, 2022 8:53:56 GMT -5
Rank Player Last Change 1 Triston Casas 1 0 2 Marcelo Mayer 2 0 3 Nick Yorke 3 0 4 Brayan Bello 4 0 5 Jarren Duran 5 0 6 Brandon Walter 6 0 7 Bryan Mata 7 0 8 Miguel Bleis 8 0 9 Chris Murphy 11 2 10 Josh Winckowski 12 2 11 Connor Seabold 13 2 12 W. Gonzalez 9 -3 13 Jeter Downs 16 3 14 C Rafaela 15 1 15 Jay Groome 10 -5 16 E Paulino 26 10 17 Alex Binelas 18 1 18 Blaze Jordan 14 -4 19 Ryan Fitzgerald 23 4 20 G Jimenez 19 -1 21 Matthew Lugo 24 3 22 Kutter Crawford 17 -5 23 Tyler McDonough 20 -3 24 Thaddeus Ward 21 -3 25 Brainer Bonaci 27 2 26 Nathan Hickey 31 5 27 Connor Wong 28 1 28 Frank German 30 2 29 Eduardo Lopez 35 6 30 Christian Koss 22 -8 31 David Hamilton 25 -6 32 Enderso Lira 32 0 33 Jacob Wallace 34 1 34 Chih-Jung Liu 33 -1 35 Tyler Uberstine 45 10 36 Juan Chacon 40 4 37 Eduard Bazardo 37 0 38 Zack Kelly 39 1 39 Durbin Feltman 41 2 40 R Hernandez 29 -11 41 Fraymi De Leon 43 2 42 F Encarnacion 44 2 43 Wyatt Olds 42 -1 44 Niko Kavadas 48 4 45 Chase Shugart 51 6 46 Nick Decker 36 -10 47 Shane Drohan 49 2 48 Nathanael Cruz 46 -2 49 Luis Ravelo 50 1 50 AJ Politi 54 4 51 Victor Santos 38 -13 52 Angel Bastardo 9 53 Miguel Ugueto 55 2 54 Luis Perales 58 4 55 Eduardo Vaughan 47 -8 56 Devlin Granberg 5 57 Jacob Webb 56 -1 58 J Garcia 3 59 Jedixson Paez 59 0 60 Nick Northcut 1
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 2, 2022 9:55:56 GMT -5
What is the reasoning for Winckowski over Seabold? I know its extremely nitpicky to think about one slot but I’m legitimately curious why he’d be ranked higher.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 2, 2022 12:40:19 GMT -5
What is the reasoning for Winckowski over Seabold? I know its extremely nitpicky to think about one slot but I’m legitimately curious why he’d be ranked higher. I try not to speak for the people actually doing the rankings here, but I'm pretty sure this one boils down to health concerns. Seabold has been good when healthy, but his history and pattern of injuries has reached a level that gets factored into his projection at this point...at least slightly.
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Post by joshuacoffee on Jun 2, 2022 14:43:40 GMT -5
5 of the top 7 and 8 of the top 13 in Worcester And 4 of those are pitchers. There was a time not too long ago that having 4 of the top 10 prospects be pitchers in AAA (and another a pitcher in AA) would have been too much to even imagine.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 2, 2022 17:28:01 GMT -5
What is the reasoning for Winckowski over Seabold? I know its extremely nitpicky to think about one slot but I’m legitimately curious why he’d be ranked higher. Not to answer a question with a question, but I'm curious why you think that's weird. The answer is it's obviously very close but we like Winckowski a little better. Better fastball, hasn't had the injury history, but again, not a ton of differentiation. But I'm curious myself about why that seems to be strange to you.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 2, 2022 17:51:44 GMT -5
Seems to me like Winckowski also has a higher floor at this point. His fastball/slider combo would at least work in middle relief. Not sure Seabold’s would unless that change up comes back. It’s a few average pitches. I think he’s basically a back end of the rotation guy or AAA pitcher and we know from watching this system the last decade and a half it’s not easy to stick as a starting pitcher
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Post by jaffinator on Jun 2, 2022 20:09:53 GMT -5
So it's clear Walter ought to be ranked above Jordan (mea culpa) but given the profile - sort of a command and control lefty with a low armslot - I'm hesitant to put the world on him until he starts showing it in the big leagues. Obviously the breaking stuff is significantly better than that generalization might suggest but there's I'm still more than a little hesitant on some of the hype, especially on the question of whether he might find himself contributing in Boston somehow this season.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 2, 2022 22:36:41 GMT -5
So it's clear Walter ought to be ranked above Jordan (mea culpa) but given the profile - sort of a command and control lefty with a low armslot - I'm hesitant to put the world on him until he starts showing it in the big leagues. Obviously the breaking stuff is significantly better than that generalization might suggest but there's I'm still more than a little hesitant on some of the hype, especially on the question of whether he might find himself contributing in Boston somehow this season. He's not just a command and control lefty. He's got 2 bat-missing secondaries and a good sinker. He's not Henry Owens trying to spot 89-91.
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Post by jaffinator on Jun 3, 2022 0:47:11 GMT -5
So it's clear Walter ought to be ranked above Jordan (mea culpa) but given the profile - sort of a command and control lefty with a low armslot - I'm hesitant to put the world on him until he starts showing it in the big leagues. Obviously the breaking stuff is significantly better than that generalization might suggest but there's I'm still more than a little hesitant on some of the hype, especially on the question of whether he might find himself contributing in Boston somehow this season. He's not just a command and control lefty. He's got 2 bat-missing secondaries and a good sinker. He's not Henry Owens trying to spot 89-91. Yeah, like I said I think the secondaries are better than that generalization would suggest. My opinion is not to be respected all that much and though I've caught some of his starts and I'm sure you've seen many more. All that aside, I'm not convinced any of his pitches profile good enough to be a go-to, and I think I'm lower on his sinker than most. It's pretty hard to survive as with your sinker as your primary fb right now in the big leagues unless you throw it hard with tons of movement (Clay Holmes) or you tunnel it like crazy (Liam Hendricks). The change plays well off it but I don't know if that combo's enough given that the sinker comes in closer to Hendricks than Holmes to me. Again, I'm just an idiot though.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jun 21, 2022 20:46:28 GMT -5
10 days from next update. Is Bello vs Yorke a discussion? Duran graduating, does anybody challenge Walter for the 5 spot? Does Winckowski make a jump with his big league performance or Mata in his return from injury?
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Post by blizzards39 on Jun 21, 2022 23:54:53 GMT -5
10 days from next update. Is Bello vs Yorke a discussion? Duran graduating, does anybody challenge Walter for the 5 spot? Does Winckowski make a jump with his big league performance or Mata in his return from injury? My biggest thing is where does Rafelalla end up?? 5-12??
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 30, 2022 16:37:04 GMT -5
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jun 30, 2022 16:50:29 GMT -5
Wow! I was expecting Bello maybe but I wouldn’t thought Mayer was deserving that bump especially after a .221/.333/.465 June with a 29.4% K rate. Would love to hear the logic behind that.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 30, 2022 20:14:34 GMT -5
There is a longer explanation about the players but I think the more direct way to address what you're getting at is this - the rankings are an attempt to rank the players by projected future value. They're not power rankings. I honestly couldn't care less that Mayer had a bad series against Delmarva. He came out of it.
We've been thinking of how to rank these two since last July. We held off on putting Mayer at 1 immediately and wanted to see how Mayer adjusted to his first full season, see him, and get reports on him. In evaluating all of the data we'd gathered, we determined it was time. We were unanimous (we hadn't been since the spring, btw). Mayer's July statistics weren't the driving factor, nor should they be.
If these were power rankings based on performance, Kavadas would be number 1 with a bullet. They're not.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jun 30, 2022 20:37:23 GMT -5
So you’re telling me that his 28.9% K rate so far for the season for a guy that’s supposed to have “strong bat-to-ball skills” didn’t factor in yours decision? Didn’t even raise an eyebrow?
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jun 30, 2022 21:22:20 GMT -5
There is a longer explanation about the players but I think the more direct way to address what you're getting at is this - the rankings are an attempt to rank the players by projected future value. They're not power rankings. I honestly couldn't care less that Mayer had a bad series against Delmarva. He came out of it. We've been thinking of how to rank these two since last July. We held off on putting Mayer at 1 immediately and wanted to see how Mayer adjusted to his first full season, see him, and get reports on him. In evaluating all of the data we'd gathered, we determined it was time. We were unanimous (we hadn't been since the spring, btw). Mayer's July statistics weren't the driving factor, nor should they be. If these were power rankings based on performance, Kavadas would be number 1 with a bullet. They're not. The weird part to me is Casas has been out and feels like his outlook didn’t change too much during that time, so I’m just guessing the change was mostly a result of Mayer being awesome. Is that accurate or has Casas ticked down some?
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Post by jchang on Jun 30, 2022 21:24:41 GMT -5
No Castellanos?
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Post by incandenza on Jun 30, 2022 21:25:24 GMT -5
So you’re telling me that his 28.9% K rate so far for the season for a guy that’s supposed to have “strong bat-to-ball skills” didn’t factor in yours decision? Didn’t even raise an eyebrow? I'd turn the question around and ask why it would make more sense to give the #1 ranking to a 1B slugger who has never actually slugged all *that* much, has an .816 OPS and 114 wRC+ in AAA, and has been out with an injury for the last month and a half.
(That sounds negative but I don't mean it that way; it just seems to me that it's plenty reasonable to rank Mayer #1 without implying that he's a totally dominating force at Salem.)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 30, 2022 21:38:40 GMT -5
So you’re telling me that his 28.9% K rate so far for the season for a guy that’s supposed to have “strong bat-to-ball skills” didn’t factor in yours decision? Didn’t even raise an eyebrow? Their in-zone miss rates are practically identical. Mayer's chase rate is a little bit higher. Both are great against velocity (Mayer a bit better) and both produce terrific exit velos (Casas better). Been doing this for a long time. Spare me the sarcasm. Have fun with your Low-A strikeout rates though while you assume we're using RBIs or something stupid.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jun 30, 2022 21:43:01 GMT -5
So you’re telling me that his 28.9% K rate so far for the season for a guy that’s supposed to have “strong bat-to-ball skills” didn’t factor in yours decision? Didn’t even raise an eyebrow? I'd turn the question around and ask why it would make more sense to give the #1 ranking to a 1B slugger who has never actually slugged all *that* much, has an .816 OPS and 114 wRC+ in AAA, and has been out with an injury for the last month and a half. (That sounds negative but I don't mean it that way; it just seems to me that it's plenty reasonable to rank Mayer #1 without implying that he's a totally dominating force at Salem.)
I honestly could care less about a prospect avg/obp/slg in the minors and, if you follow what I write in these confines, mention them very rarely. Here’s what I see when I look at Casas numbers: - He’s the 9th youngest hitter in his league. - He walks a lot (14.7%) - He doesn’t strikeout at alarming clips (22.4%) - He hits the ball hard (.209 IsoP) In fact, he’s one of the best in the minors at that as you can see here: https:/www./twitter.com/sis_baseball/status/1535312437917978627?s=21&t=CrIiExXpbXsHk9dbo-S8PQ And he plays some awesome defense at his position too.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jun 30, 2022 21:53:00 GMT -5
So you’re telling me that his 28.9% K rate so far for the season for a guy that’s supposed to have “strong bat-to-ball skills” didn’t factor in yours decision? Didn’t even raise an eyebrow? Their in-zone miss rates are practically identical. Mayer's chase rate is a little bit higher. Both are great against velocity (Mayer a bit better) and both produce terrific exit velos (Casas better). Been doing this for a long time. Spare me the sarcasm. Have fun with your Low-A strikeout rates though while you assume we're using RBIs or something stupid. Lol Why you seem pissed? I wasn’t sarcastic or anything, I was legitimately curious about the thought process behind it, sorry if it seemed different.
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