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4/25-4/28 Red Sox @ Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 26, 2022 8:16:40 GMT -5
I'm not panicking yet mostly because at least the teams they're losing to in the present moment are very good, but if they can't make it through the next 9 after Toronto (@bal, vs. LAA, vs. CHW) without some real signs of life then it's probably time to start considering some real changes.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 26, 2022 10:14:18 GMT -5
The Soul of the Team discussion has begun, I see. The losses count, of course, but they're one bad Story throw from being 2-2 in these last four games.
(Having said that, I can't help but feel that a high OBP guy helps a lineup more than whatever the analytic metrics might say (ironically, given that this was the classic moneyball insight). It just seems like it makes the whole lineup better to have someone who can work a count, show discipline, and draw walks. It sure seemed that way during the brief shining moment when Schwarber was here. This is my diagnosis of what is most off about this team so far.)
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Post by manfred on Apr 26, 2022 10:26:15 GMT -5
The Soul of the Team discussion has begun, I see. The losses count, of course, but they're one bad Story throw from being 2-2 in these last four games.
(Having said that, I can't help but feel that a high OBP guy helps a lineup more than whatever the analytic metrics might say (ironically, given that this was the classic moneyball insight). It just seems like it makes the whole lineup better to have someone who can work a count, show discipline, and draw walks. It sure seemed that way during the brief shining moment when Schwarber was here. This is my diagnosis of what is most off about this team so far.)
They are also one run from being no-hit. The ifs and buts can work any direction you like. And when they are being used to get you to… .500? — it is not the strongest defense. But I totally agree with the on-base stuff. I’d like to add speed, too. You get a guy like Vince Coleman (extreme choice, I know), then singles become doubles — but aren’t reflected in slugging. I’d like to see a stat that factors running into slugging. It is about bases, after all.
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Post by taiwansox on Apr 26, 2022 10:34:06 GMT -5
The Soul of the Team discussion has begun, I see. The losses count, of course, but they're one bad Story throw from being 2-2 in these last four games.
(Having said that, I can't help but feel that a high OBP guy helps a lineup more than whatever the analytic metrics might say (ironically, given that this was the classic moneyball insight). It just seems like it makes the whole lineup better to have someone who can work a count, show discipline, and draw walks. It sure seemed that way during the brief shining moment when Schwarber was here. This is my diagnosis of what is most off about this team so far.)
They are also one run from being no-hit. The ifs and buts can work any direction you like. And when they are being used to get you to… .500? — it is not the strongest defense. But I totally agree with the on-base stuff. I’d like to add speed, too. You get a guy like Vince Coleman (extreme choice, I know), then singles become doubles — but aren’t reflected in slugging. I’d like to see a stat that factors running into slugging. It is about bases, after all. Yeah exactly and here’s a fun stat, we’ve only scored in 7 different innings over 6 games! That’s 48 shutout innings over those 6 games…so many innings we’re swinging first pitch and having non-competitive ABs
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Post by Guidas on Apr 26, 2022 10:59:19 GMT -5
The Soul of the Team discussion has begun, I see. The losses count, of course, but they're one bad Story throw from being 2-2 in these last four games. (Having said that, I can't help but feel that a high OBP guy helps a lineup more than whatever the analytic metrics might say (ironically, given that this was the classic moneyball insight). It just seems like it makes the whole lineup better to have someone who can work a count, show discipline, and draw walks. It sure seemed that way during the brief shining moment when Schwarber was here. This is my diagnosis of what is most off about this team so far.)
Agree completely. I absolutely contend that high OBP guys in a 3-outcome/homer predicated/higher strike-out league are the new market inefficiency. Schwarber's OBP was .374 last year, exactly that wheelhouse we're talking about. But Xander is right there with .370 in the same year. And they apparently are about to let him walk. This is why I am advocating replacing him with Trea Turner in the off-season (OBP + Plate Discipline + Power + Present Speed), esp if they think that Devers will also walk the following year. btw, Turner, Xander and Judge will be the only high OBP guys available on the market. This is why I'd also throw the farm (Casas, Yorke, Bello at least) at Washington in the off-season to get Juan Soto and then immediately offer him a 10-year, $400M extension.
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art
Veteran
Posts: 382
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Post by art on Apr 26, 2022 11:01:31 GMT -5
The Soul of the Team discussion has begun, I see. The losses count, of course, but they're one bad Story throw from being 2-2 in these last four games.
(Having said that, I can't help but feel that a high OBP guy helps a lineup more than whatever the analytic metrics might say (ironically, given that this was the classic moneyball insight). It just seems like it makes the whole lineup better to have someone who can work a count, show discipline, and draw walks. It sure seemed that way during the brief shining moment when Schwarber was here. This is my diagnosis of what is most off about this team so far.)
Or maybe 2 Dalbec bad catches.
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Post by huskies15 on Apr 26, 2022 11:31:32 GMT -5
Devers, Bogaerts, Story are turning in some pretty dreadful BB rates (Devers is at 2%). If those three can bring a more refined approach it would go a long way.
The thing for Devers is that he's at only a 16% K rate so in general he could stand to be more selective and get deeper into counts.
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Post by manfred on Apr 26, 2022 11:33:35 GMT -5
Devers, Bogaerts, Story are turning in some pretty dreadful BB rates (Devers is at 2%). If those three can bring a more refined approach it would go a long way. The thing for Devers is that he's at only a 16% K rate so in general he could stand to be more selective and get deeper into counts. Unfortunately if Devers and X walk, it is hard to say who knocks them in.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 26, 2022 11:33:36 GMT -5
The Soul of the Team discussion has begun, I see. The losses count, of course, but they're one bad Story throw from being 2-2 in these last four games. (Having said that, I can't help but feel that a high OBP guy helps a lineup more than whatever the analytic metrics might say (ironically, given that this was the classic moneyball insight). It just seems like it makes the whole lineup better to have someone who can work a count, show discipline, and draw walks. It sure seemed that way during the brief shining moment when Schwarber was here. This is my diagnosis of what is most off about this team so far.)
Agree completely. I absolutely contend that high OBP guys in a 3-outcome/homer predicated/higher strike-out league are the new market inefficiency. Schwarber's OBP was .374 last year, exactly that wheelhouse we're talking about. But Xander is right there with .370 in the same year. And they apparently are about to let him walk. This is why I am advocating replacing him with Trea Turner in the off-season (OBP + Plate Discipline + Power + Present Speed), esp if they think that Devers will also walk the following year. btw, Turner, Xander and Judge will be the only high OBP guys available on the market. This is why I'd also throw the farm (Casas, Yorke, Bello at least) at Washington in the off-season to get Juan Soto and then immediately offer him a 10-year, $400M extension. If anything we should be selling. Tampa and Toronto can’t sustain their performance with their payrolls and trading from the farm to compete. The Yankees have also made some bad deals in my eyes. I would prefer to sell now and focus on the next group as the new core rather than building around Bogaerts and Devers, who in my view don’t have enough help. While this is sad, we did we two World Series with Bogaerts and one with Devers and if they fetch good prospects back, that’s pretty good overall.
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 26, 2022 11:50:14 GMT -5
Fangraphs playoff odds has us at 49.7% now, while assuming we are tied with the White Sox for fourth best team in the league. The AL East, Angels, Mariners and Twins are the teams to root against in that order.
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Post by manfred on Apr 26, 2022 11:56:30 GMT -5
Fangraphs playoff odds has us at 49.7% now, while assuming we are tied with the White Sox for fourth best team in the league. The AL East, Angels, Mariners and Twins are the teams to root against in that order. Ugh. I can’t motivate for a summer of watching how the Twins do in the box scores. This feels like limbo. Not terrible, but not good. Are we really stuck waiting for teenagers to (hopefully) develop?
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 26, 2022 12:02:54 GMT -5
You'll feel better once they win 7 of 8. Or maybe they go on a losing streak and we can start thinking about next year early.
Just please don't win 10 of the next 21.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 26, 2022 12:17:59 GMT -5
Feels a lot to me like 2014, where, coming off a great year they hung around .500 before they had a big slump and then never caught back up.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
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Post by radiohix on Apr 26, 2022 12:50:11 GMT -5
I'm impressed that we didn't reach the "Bring Tim Hyers back!" point yet😂 Proud of this community.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 26, 2022 12:54:05 GMT -5
Agree completely. I absolutely contend that high OBP guys in a 3-outcome/homer predicated/higher strike-out league are the new market inefficiency. Schwarber's OBP was .374 last year, exactly that wheelhouse we're talking about. But Xander is right there with .370 in the same year. And they apparently are about to let him walk. This is why I am advocating replacing him with Trea Turner in the off-season (OBP + Plate Discipline + Power + Present Speed), esp if they think that Devers will also walk the following year. btw, Turner, Xander and Judge will be the only high OBP guys available on the market. This is why I'd also throw the farm (Casas, Yorke, Bello at least) at Washington in the off-season to get Juan Soto and then immediately offer him a 10-year, $400M extension. If anything we should be selling. Tampa and Toronto can’t sustain their performance with their payrolls and trading from the farm to compete. The Yankees have also made some bad deals in my eyes. I would prefer to sell now and focus on the next group as the new core rather than building around Bogaerts and Devers, who in my view don’t have enough help. While this is sad, we did we two World Series with Bogaerts and one with Devers and if they fetch good prospects back, that’s pretty good overall. I'm down with this in theory, but I don't think it's a teardown. It also extends "the plan" to...2026?
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Post by Guidas on Apr 26, 2022 12:55:05 GMT -5
Feels a lot to me like 2014, where, coming off a great year they hung around .500 before they had a big slump and then never caught back up. That GM was gone soon after. He collected prospects, too. Just sayin'...
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Post by incandenza on Apr 26, 2022 13:04:26 GMT -5
Feels a lot to me like 2014, where, coming off a great year they hung around .500 before they had a big slump and then never caught back up. That GM was gone soon after. He collected prospects, too.Just sayin'... Common misconception - Cherington did not do this! He added practically no prospects in trades, despite dealing a few veterans. Look at the transactions history if you don't believe me. Bloom has already added a ton more prospects through non-draft routes than Cherington and Dombrowski did combined.
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Post by manfred on Apr 26, 2022 13:22:41 GMT -5
Feels a lot to me like 2014, where, coming off a great year they hung around .500 before they had a big slump and then never caught back up. That GM was gone soon after. He collected prospects, too. Just sayin'... Well, last two huge slump seasons (Covid excepted) followed titles, not wild cards. I am all for boom and bust but small pop and bust? Pass.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 26, 2022 14:44:49 GMT -5
That GM was gone soon after. He collected prospects, too.Just sayin'... Common misconception - Cherington did not do this! He added practically no prospects in trades, despite dealing a few veterans. Look at the transactions history if you don't believe me. Bloom has already added a ton more prospects through non-draft routes than Cherington and Dombrowski did combined. I get that, but Ben seemed to hold them tightly. Dombrowski actually did well holding on to most of the good ones. Ben was canned for not succeeding at the MLB level to the degree ownership wanted. Dombrowski was fired for investing in the wrong expensive talent. Losing is tolerated at the franchises where the owners are just using the team as a cash cow. At a place where winning is expected will get a GM fired, no matter how great his or her plan is.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 26, 2022 14:44:57 GMT -5
That GM was gone soon after. He collected prospects, too. Just sayin'... Well, last two huge slump seasons (Covid excepted) followed titles, not wild cards. I am all for boom and bust but small pop and bust? Pass. This is disingenuous, the Red Sox were just two games from the World Series last season, and the team that won it had less wins than they did. That's why you build a team that can make it every year. It's April 26th and half this board is ready to give up because the team that just went to the ALCS is off to a slow start?
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Post by Guidas on Apr 26, 2022 14:45:44 GMT -5
Line-upage (Devers no esta aquí):
Story 2B Verdugo LF Bogaerts SS Martinez DH Hernández CF Bradley Jr. RF Dalbec 1B Arroyo 3B Vázquez C
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 26, 2022 14:52:01 GMT -5
If anything we should be selling. Tampa and Toronto can’t sustain their performance with their payrolls and trading from the farm to compete. The Yankees have also made some bad deals in my eyes. I would prefer to sell now and focus on the next group as the new core rather than building around Bogaerts and Devers, who in my view don’t have enough help. While this is sad, we did we two World Series with Bogaerts and one with Devers and if they fetch good prospects back, that’s pretty good overall. I'm down with this in theory, but I don't think it's a teardown. It also extends "the plan" to...2026? That might be the right move if three of the other teams in our division are all-in now and the only other one that isn’t is Baltimore which has like a $29M payroll. Personally, I’ve settled down in Boston and am most interested in what’s best for the team long-term. I think a sell-off is probably for the best with this expanded playoff (and pool of bidders). We also really need more sustainable player (especially pitching) development. We’re way too reliant on Bogaerts and Devers carrying us right now. Does anyone disagree with that?
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Post by Guidas on Apr 26, 2022 14:55:28 GMT -5
Well, last two huge slump seasons (Covid excepted) followed titles, not wild cards. I am all for boom and bust but small pop and bust? Pass. This is disingenuous, the Red Sox were just two games from the World Series last season, and the team that won it had less wins than they did. That's why you build a team that can make it every year. It's April 26th and half this board is ready to give up because the team that just went to the ALCS is off to a slow start? Not ready to give up. Never give up! Just living with the current reality. And I think we'd all agree that team over-achieved - which is great. Such a treat for fans when a team substantially exceeds expectations. But Bloom didn't significantly improve that team (some would contend he took a step back). Apparently with the sour talks on Bogaerts and Devers and with JD, Eovaldi, Kiké and Vazquez likely not being re-signed, either, the window so many of us talked about is likely to close this year. It is undetermined when this team will have the same or better level of talent in the near future. Sure, a lot of cash will be coming off the books this off-season, but what is there on the market to spend it on that will fill positions of need and replace that type of offense? Anyway, not giving up. Just a lot of frustration with a 2.4 runs per game offense and a lot of bad practices at the plate. And yes, some legit bad luck.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 26, 2022 15:21:16 GMT -5
I'm down with this in theory, but I don't think it's a teardown. It also extends "the plan" to...2026? That might be the right move if three of the other teams in our division are all-in now and the only other one that isn’t is Baltimore which has like a $29M payroll. Personally, I’ve settled down in Boston and am most interested in what’s best for the team long-term. I think a sell-off is probably for the best with this expanded playoff (and pool of bidders). We also really need more sustainable player (especially pitching) development. We’re way too reliant on Bogaerts and Devers carrying us right now. Does anyone disagree with that? Well, last night it was a bad call by management - Yanking Eovaldi after less than 80 pitches and a complete meltdown by the pen. And there's this guy: www.fangraphs.com/players/jd-martinez/6184/stats?position=DH/OFAnd we're barely at 50 PAs for most guys. But I'm not anywhere near being in sell-off mode this year. Talk to me about that after the All Star break.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 26, 2022 15:21:18 GMT -5
They can use the saved money to sign players to sensible extensions which is what a lot of teams do. The cap really made it hard to do that with Devers though. They could also take on a bad contract or two for quality prospects. This team will rebuild fast if they don’t half-ass it and do it right.
I am glad they went all in, since it resulted in the 2018 title but the aftermath of that, the Sale extension is what really shortened our window and hamstrung the team.
We could’ve easily won last year though, we were one big hit from putting away the Astros.
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