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4/29-5/1 Red Sox @ Orioles Series Thread
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Post by Underwater Johnson on May 2, 2022 11:47:37 GMT -5
Could just be semantics but I don't follow this criticism. Do you truly mean what you're saying or do you just wish that Bloom was less risk-averse? Do you want a true overpay, or are you just assuming that market value is an overpay ("someone's gonna overpay"), so you need to overpay to acquire top talent? There is always nuance with this stuff, but I would start with the basic premise that as long as there is competition amongst 2 or more teams for a player, the market value is what that player signed for. Not sure if agents are allowed to divulge teams offers to other teams, but I would guess they all kind are within each other offers. To me an unreasonable risk is going above that which he might view as the players market in such a fashion that it is noticeable to him and others. If he is strictly going on internal valuation, he won't take unreasonable risk. A good example would be the Price contract. DD obviously took an unreasonable risk. He basically outbid every other team to the point where the player had to take the money. It was a bad contract, but we got a great ALCS and WS performance for it and some prospects. The Scherzer contract this year. That would be an unreasonable risk to me. Heck. I might even characterize the Wander Franco contract as unreasonable risk. There is a lot that can go wrong signing such a young player for so much money, despite that he is such a fantastic player. Caveat....within TB market and finances. I don't think you can view his tenure up to this point as anything but risk adverse, so it would follow that he hasn't taken on unreasonable risk. Can you name 1 transaction that he has done in 3 years that would fit this definition ? Do you think he is the kind of GM that would ever consider even a basic overpay ? I think where Chaim is taking risks is where he sees a good chance of an outsized reward, with respect to the marketplace. I think the Paxton signing was a risky play, with the potential for a complete write-down on $10m+ but obviously it's pretty tame compared to $140m for Sale with a similar but perhaps less likely risk of near-complete loss.
By your definition, the Story signing was a pretty big risk, as Chaim outbid multiple teams for a player on a 9-figure, long-term contract. As many have pointed out in these pages (particularly after Story's slow start), his overall offensive numbers don't quite live up to the seven-HRs-in-his-first-six-MLB-games start to his career and he also appears to be working through some arm issues. It's obviously still early and I would be pretty shocked if Story turned into a Panda-sized loss but there's a lot of risk there.
Also when it comes to a "basic overpay," I think it makes more sense for a 7-figure overpay, than for a 9-figure overpay. Michael Wacha's $7m contract is the largest of his relatively successful career and more than double what he made from the Rays last year with forgettable results, so it really seemed like an overpay at the time -- but of course, not on the same scale as the Price overpay. Richards was a similar gamble. Ultimately they are each one single pitcher and each can only pitch every 5 days (although Price is pitching more often now as a $32m one-inning reliever and Richards is now more of a swingman), so there are limits to how much more worthy one can be over the other and the lower-paid guy has a lot to say about that on the field.
Ultimately, depending somewhat on the progress of young arms like Whitlock, Groome, Bello, Seabold, Crawford, Winckowski, and Mata, I think Chaim will pay both Xander and Raffy at close-to-market-value rates on risk-filled long-term deals that will each supersede Story's deal, both in length and AAV. You can only have so many of those contracts on the books at one time, so I would hope that when the ink is dry on those, Chaim will continue to look for high-reward 7- or low-8-figure "overpays."
Re: Franco, I think every GM in baseball would've taken that risk.
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Post by Guidas on May 2, 2022 11:51:10 GMT -5
I keep coming back to that Joon Lee article on Opening Day Eve. “The signing of Story marked the first free-agent signing with a long-term financial investment during chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom's tenure with the team. According to Red Sox baseball operations sources, there was growing wave of discontent in some parts of the front office about Bloom's lack of willingness to invest significant amounts of money in free agency. The signing of Story calmed any front-office tension about the willingness of baseball operations leadership to invest in star players, sources said.” I’m really starting to believe Bloom didn’t see a true contender and didn’t want to spend only for the big market pressure to get to him. I get that, but there were free agents in certain positions of need of the type that won't be available next year. Also, the Story deal was high for Chaim, but not high for the market. He seemed like the only move they made looking to the long term. Theo always talked about rolling five-year plans. Would love to know if that was still in force here or if they are working with shorter (or longer) overall windows. One thing's for sure so far: in terms of philosophy and execution, Chaim Bloom is no Andrew Friedman, and more's the pity. If that's who Henry really wants he should reach out this off-season and make Friedman an absurd offer of, say, $15M a year for five years. It doesn't count toward the tax and you get the genuine article.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 2, 2022 11:53:35 GMT -5
I can't get on board with the 2023 is doomed takes.
The big contracts they have on the books look to be fine value on the whole for 2023. Casas, Houck and Whitlock are all likely to be solid pre-arb contributors. A couple guys out of Walter, Bello, Groome, Duran, Downs and Seabold should contribute. Chaim's just got to find a way to spend $70 million or whatever in a reasonable way and they'll be okay. I know the free agent market sucks, but it's not that hard to spend some money.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on May 2, 2022 12:24:06 GMT -5
The focus was always on 2024. The reason why Story was signed was to save money at Shortstop and use it somewhere else. Either you trade Xander for prospects or let him walk. Same with Devers. The top prospects are going to need to perform as they progress through the system. This is becoming a big distraction to the team it seems. Good to know. Where will they get #1 and #2 starters for that year? Because we have zero in the system who legitimately project to that. Ditto for a MLB average catcher. And if Devers goes, who's at third? Which top prospects will you be willing to trade for these? Or what free agents next year and the year after are you willing to buy to fill these gaps. Because, even though I agree with you often, as Orion09 says, the next couple free-agent classes are pretty meh with just four to six true top-end impact players (and a few of the projected stars - Bogaerts, Eovalidi and Benintendi will be former Sox who are likely not coming back). And this farm only has a few current true projected MLB average or better position players (Casas, Duran, Meyer, maybe Yorke maybe Lugo, and perhaps a dark horse will rise but that's a bonus, not a probability) no starters currently projected any higher than a 3 (and mostly the usual collection of 5s). I eagerly await the blueprint for the 2024 plan. Never said its the right one. This team doesn't have any front end pitching yet. But whoever they get back from trading Xander and Devers one of those players better develop into a front end starter. You can argue that Bloom out of all the trades he's made he only won the Schwarber deal. Everything else was a solid loss with the Benintendi deal being by far the worst hosing out of them all. But he needs to get the next few trades right. Potentially dealing JD Nate Xander and Devers in the next 2-3 months is going to either give the Sox a ton of prospects to work with and sustained success or they'll be duds. He needs to get these trades correct.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 2, 2022 12:31:38 GMT -5
I think where Chaim is taking risks is where he sees a good chance of an outsized reward, with respect to the marketplace. I think the Paxton signing was a risky play, with the potential for a complete write-down on $10m+ but obviously it's pretty tame compared to $140m for Sale with a similar but perhaps less likely risk of near-complete loss.
By your definition, the Story signing was a pretty big risk, as Chaim outbid multiple teams for a player on a 9-figure, long-term contract. As many have pointed out in these pages (particularly after Story's slow start), his overall offensive numbers don't quite live up to the seven-HRs-in-his-first-six-MLB-games start to his career and he also appears to be working through some arm issues. It's obviously still early and I would be pretty shocked if Story turned into a Panda-sized loss but there's a lot of risk there.
Also when it comes to a "basic overpay," I think it makes more sense for a 7-figure overpay, than for a 9-figure overpay. Michael Wacha's $7m contract is the largest of his relatively successful career and more than double what he made from the Rays last year with forgettable results, so it really seemed like an overpay at the time -- but of course, not on the same scale as the Price overpay. Richards was a similar gamble. Ultimately they are each one single pitcher and each can only pitch every 5 days (although Price is pitching more often now as a $32m one-inning reliever and Richards is now more of a swingman), so there are limits to how much more worthy one can be over the other and the lower-paid guy has a lot to say about that on the field.
Ultimately, depending somewhat on the progress of young arms like Whitlock, Groome, Bello, Seabold, Crawford, Winckowski, and Mata, I think Chaim will pay both Xander and Raffy at close-to-market-value rates on risk-filled long-term deals that will each supersede Story's deal, both in length and AAV. You can only have so many of those contracts on the books at one time, so I would hope that when the ink is dry on those, Chaim will continue to look for high-reward 7- or low-8-figure "overpays."
Re: Franco, I think every GM in baseball would've taken that risk.
yes, i agree. he is willing to take a level of risk, but I look those as being low level risk, mostly because of the lengths of the contract. That kind of risk should be complementary to higher risk decisions. For instance, Wacha. That is a 1 yr deal. He could look like a hero for this year, but obviously he will be more expensive next year if he continues this trend. Paxton is 1 year with 2 team options. It is all short money. I agree with Guidas. the Story contract was expensive but not far from the likely market. I don't see where roster turnover of this kind is helpful. You need anchors that are gonna be there for 5-7 years. Story is 1 guy. He is gonna have to make some bones overpaying for people. We might lose a lot of talent next year.
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Post by jimed14 on May 2, 2022 12:50:25 GMT -5
This forum used to not be Felger and Mazz.
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Post by taiwansox on May 2, 2022 13:47:30 GMT -5
The baseball season is super long, who knows, we might actually get some help from minor league talent. The past 5 years have been a bit of a drought, but this team could look quite different by the summer
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Post by briam on May 2, 2022 14:34:30 GMT -5
I keep coming back to that Joon Lee article on Opening Day Eve. “The signing of Story marked the first free-agent signing with a long-term financial investment during chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom's tenure with the team. According to Red Sox baseball operations sources, there was growing wave of discontent in some parts of the front office about Bloom's lack of willingness to invest significant amounts of money in free agency. The signing of Story calmed any front-office tension about the willingness of baseball operations leadership to invest in star players, sources said.” I’m really starting to believe Bloom didn’t see a true contender and didn’t want to spend only for the big market pressure to get to him. I get that, but there were free agents in certain positions of need of the type that won't be available next year. Also, the Story deal was high for Chaim, but not high for the market. He seemed like the only move they made looking to the long term. Theo always talked about rolling five-year plans. Would love to know if that was still in force here or if they are working with shorter (or longer) overall windows. One thing's for sure so far: in terms of philosophy and execution, Chaim Bloom is no Andrew Friedman, and more's the pity. If that's who Henry really wants he should reach out this off-season and make Friedman an absurd offer of, say, $15M a year for five years. It doesn't count toward the tax and you get the genuine article. That’s my thing, they just barely got over the 230 threshold and everybody in the world knows if you’re going to go over it doesn’t make sense to barely eclipse 230. There were and still are major holes that they just chose to ignore. I view it as him straddling the line so that he has an easy eject button to hit to drop under the threshold instead of invest into their deficiencies and go for a title.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on May 2, 2022 20:20:02 GMT -5
Bloom's biggest area of blame has to go to his choice to basically sit on his hands for the entire Hot Stove/Off-season. I know there was the lockout, blah blah blah, and they signed Story to keep the fan base from an all out revolt. Then he tried to play it off like Story was who they wanted all along. Chaim needs to hybridize his approach more, sure go with the signing of bargains around the margins, they can make a GM look smart. Although even the margins are shitty now...... ..... But these are the Boston Red Sox, not Tampa or Cleveland or Kansas City, this team is a cash monster, perhaps the biggest outside of the NEw York teams and maybe L.A. They don't need to do all there shopping in the Thrift Store. Top tier talent NEEDS to be acquired each and every off-season. Then use your Tampa Rays creativity and shrewdness to fill out the roster. I'm not saying waste money, but this team was woefully unprepared to start the season. Can they turn it around? Absolutely, will they? I don't know. On top of the holes in talent, these guys just don't have any fire. Now winning can build that, but these guys are veterans, stop looking like your punching the clock, waiting to get paid. Call up Casas, let him take most of the ABs from Dalbec, sometimes a rookie can spark a slumping team. Remember when Chavis first came up? So your theory is that this team has been super passive in trying to acquire established talent and yet at the same time they are throwing $160 million at a guy they didn’t really want? Yeah, that pretty much nails it... Too little too late. Saying "they didn't want him" is a little harsh, I'd say, he was pretty much all that was left. Or the best of what was left. It also allowed for some flexibility, so Chaim chose to settle on Story, he looked at Story's upside and sold himself on it...
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 2, 2022 20:32:55 GMT -5
So your theory is that this team has been super passive in trying to acquire established talent and yet at the same time they are throwing $160 million at a guy they didn’t really want? Yeah, that pretty much nails it... Too little too late. Saying "they didn't want him" is a little harsh, I'd say, he was pretty much all that was left. Or the best of what was left. It also allowed for some flexibility, so Chaim chose to settle on Story, he looked at Story's upside and sold himself on it... Yeah, no offense but I think that’s talk radio nonsense. I made that post to make it seem how contradictory that statement was….and you agreed with it…idk how to approach that There’s a reason why Redsoxstats predicted he’d be in a sox uniform last year- the fit made too much sense.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on May 2, 2022 21:02:55 GMT -5
Yeah, that pretty much nails it... Too little too late. Saying "they didn't want him" is a little harsh, I'd say, he was pretty much all that was left. Or the best of what was left. It also allowed for some flexibility, so Chaim chose to settle on Story, he looked at Story's upside and sold himself on it... Yeah, no offense but I think that’s talk radio nonsense. I made that post to make it seem how contradictory that statement was….and you agreed with it…idk how to approach that There’s a reason why Redsoxstats predicted he’d be in a sox uniform last year- the fit made too much sense. So my theory is more unrealistic than your narrative... Which seems to be: Chaim and company identified Story as their big signing right from the jump, they set up a diabolical game plan where they watch nearly every big name that would fill a need drop off the board. They let Story twist till only a couple suitors remained. Then it's a complete coincidence they sign Story (a Short Stop a position that is held by your all-star team leader) just when the fan base, the media and others in the Front Office are at the pinnacle of off-season frustration screaming that Bloom hasn't pulled the trigger on a major piece to improve the team, after NY and Toronto have gotten better. Then Chaim looked at this team and said "done, this team is division winner." Dont blame Chaim, he pulled all the right strings. See I don't think blind faith, is any less "talk radio nonsense" I respect your opinion, but the buck stops with Bloom.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 2, 2022 21:44:25 GMT -5
Yeah, no offense but I think that’s talk radio nonsense. I made that post to make it seem how contradictory that statement was….and you agreed with it…idk how to approach that There’s a reason why Redsoxstats predicted he’d be in a sox uniform last year- the fit made too much sense. So my theory is more unrealistic than your narrative... Which seems to be: Chaim and company identified Story as their big signing right from the jump, they set up a diabolical game plan where they watch nearly every big name that would fill a need drop off the board. They let Story twist till only a couple suitors remained. Then it's a complete coincidence they sign Story (a Short Stop a position that is held by your all-star team leader) just when the fan base, the media and others in the Front Office are at the pinnacle of off-season frustration screaming that Bloom hasn't pulled the trigger on a major piece to improve the team, after NY and Toronto have gotten better. Then Chaim looked at this team and said "done, this team is division winner." Dont blame Chaim, he pulled all the right strings. See I don't think blind faith, is any less "talk radio nonsense" I respect your opinion, but the buck stops with Bloom. Hilarious that you’re calling what I’m saying a narrative. As opposed to you know…what actually happened Yeah man they didn’t identify Story as a possible target at all and only signed him because they “felt the heat” from idiot fans and 98.5. Great take. It’s called feeling a market out and getting a guy who is a good fit at your price. There were a lot of guys who signed after the lockout, I presume you think nobody really had strong interest in them either? You realize this is the same guy that traded Mookie Betts right? He does not give a crap about whatever made up heat you’re assigning to him. He’s coming off an ALCS appearance in year 2 of a rebuild, there was no hot seat I do not respect your opinion, I think it’s incredibly stupid. I respect your right to have it though. The buck stops with bloom. fine! I’m glad he signed Trevor Story!
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on May 2, 2022 22:33:59 GMT -5
So my theory is more unrealistic than your narrative... Which seems to be: Chaim and company identified Story as their big signing right from the jump, they set up a diabolical game plan where they watch nearly every big name that would fill a need drop off the board. They let Story twist till only a couple suitors remained. Then it's a complete coincidence they sign Story (a Short Stop a position that is held by your all-star team leader) just when the fan base, the media and others in the Front Office are at the pinnacle of off-season frustration screaming that Bloom hasn't pulled the trigger on a major piece to improve the team, after NY and Toronto have gotten better. Then Chaim looked at this team and said "done, this team is division winner." Dont blame Chaim, he pulled all the right strings. See I don't think blind faith, is any less "talk radio nonsense" I respect your opinion, but the buck stops with Bloom. Hilarious that you’re calling what I’m saying a narrative. As opposed to you know…what actually happened Yeah man they didn’t identify Story as a possible target at all and only signed him because they “felt the heat” from idiot fans and 98.5. Great take. It’s called feeling a market out and getting a guy who is a good fit at your price. There were a lot of guys who signed after the lockout, I presume you think nobody really had strong interest in them either? You realize this is the same guy that traded Mookie Betts right? He does not give a crap about whatever made up heat you’re assigning to him. He’s coming off an ALCS appearance in year 2 of a rebuild, there was no hot seat I do not respect your opinion, I think it’s incredibly stupid. I respect your right to have it though. The buck stops with bloom. fine! I’m glad he signed Trevor Story! I'd agree with you if you were right... I mean read through some of these posts.....You're on an Island. Why are you getting so riled up and defensive. It's okay, breathe deep, maybe take some melatonin, have a lavender bubble bath and get a good night's sleep, maybe try yoga or some tai chi. This is a fan forum, you're not curing cancer.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 2, 2022 22:40:10 GMT -5
Hilarious that you’re calling what I’m saying a narrative. As opposed to you know…what actually happened Yeah man they didn’t identify Story as a possible target at all and only signed him because they “felt the heat” from idiot fans and 98.5. Great take. It’s called feeling a market out and getting a guy who is a good fit at your price. There were a lot of guys who signed after the lockout, I presume you think nobody really had strong interest in them either? You realize this is the same guy that traded Mookie Betts right? He does not give a crap about whatever made up heat you’re assigning to him. He’s coming off an ALCS appearance in year 2 of a rebuild, there was no hot seat I do not respect your opinion, I think it’s incredibly stupid. I respect your right to have it though. The buck stops with bloom. fine! I’m glad he signed Trevor Story! I'd agree with you if you were right... I mean read through some of these posts.....You're on an Island. Why are you getting so riled up and defensive. It's okay, breathe deep, maybe take some melatonin, have a lavender bubble bath and get a good night's sleep, maybe try yoga or some tai chi. This is a fan forum, you're not curing cancer. Pro tip: Just because you look silly with your contradictory sports radio opinions doesn’t mean I’m worked up And I assure you I’m not on an island.
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Post by jmei on May 3, 2022 4:50:56 GMT -5
Please move on. Thanks.
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