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5/19-5/22 Red Sox vs. Mariners Series Thread
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Post by jimed14 on May 21, 2022 15:44:59 GMT -5
It's really freaking simple. You have no control over luck no matter what you do, so you want the expected stats to be as good as possible in order to have the most likely good results regardless of luck. If that doesn't make sense, then I give up. If you get heads 90 times out of 100, that doesn't mean you're good at getting heads. It means you're lucky and that's all it means. And if you flip a coin 1 billion times, you're going to be pretty freaking close to 50% no matter what your streak was at any point in time. Following that example, the percentage because of the larger sample size will draw closer to 50-50 but odds are it never hits 50 percent so you'll get variance, and in baseball you get plenty of variance, the kind of thing that can swing an 81 caliber win team to 71 wins or the other way to 91 wins. At the end of the day, luck or otherwise, it is the results that ultimately matter, more than could have/should have stuff. If it didn't, you might as well keep score by which team had the most scorched batted balls in a game. So when you say get rid of people because they are unlucky and only for that reason, do you think that's intelligent?
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nomar
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Posts: 11,497
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Post by nomar on May 21, 2022 15:49:32 GMT -5
It’s like ERod never left. Every game single parade
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 21, 2022 16:01:28 GMT -5
Following that example, the percentage because of the larger sample size will draw closer to 50-50 but odds are it never hits 50 percent so you'll get variance, and in baseball you get plenty of variance, the kind of thing that can swing an 81 caliber win team to 71 wins or the other way to 91 wins. At the end of the day, luck or otherwise, it is the results that ultimately matter, more than could have/should have stuff. If it didn't, you might as well keep score by which team had the most scorched batted balls in a game. So when you say get rid of people because they are unlucky and only for that reason, do you think that's intelligent? Jim, we're talking two separate issues. When I watch a game I dont give a flying crap about what should be/could be, I dont give a damn. If the Sox are losing 4-3 in the bottom of the 9th with runners on 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs and somebody bloops a 2 run single at 75 mph do I really care if it's a lucky hit? Or conversely do i really take solace in knowing that a 105 mph out at the wall is how they lose 4-3? Who cares? If I'm a GM, different story. I look at these predictors to make an informed decision. When I'm watching a game I'm a fan. When evaulauting the team i put on my GM hat. I know these advanced tools are useful, but i also know there are flaws to them, so that's where the scouting piece comes in. So looking at Verdugo, the guy hits a lot of hard shots at the 2b, so the velocity isnt the end all be all for me. I think Verdugo is at his best when he uses the whole field. I think the 3 early HRs did bad things to him, making him think he's more a power hitter than he is. I think based on his track record he'll eventually start using the whole field and the hits will fall. But then he'll pull some HRs and we'll see a slump and the cycle continues. From the right side John Valentin used to go through the same thing. He was at his best when he wasn't being pull crazy. You mention Boggs in 1992. I think he was distracted by his contract situation the whole year. I grew up a Boggs fan so I never gave up on him, even at .259. I knew his .360 days were over but I thought he was still a .300 hitter. But Sox mgmt after Mrs. Yawkey passed away, didnt want him. They felt they could save money promoting future allstar Scott Cooper, who Butch Hobson was high on, no pun intended. Boggs didnt hit when his head was in a bad place. The Margo stuff didnt affect him but when his mother was killed he slumped badly for a month, understandably, and 1992 was all about his contract, which put him out if his self described cocoon.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 21, 2022 16:09:38 GMT -5
How come Verdugo was pulled?
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Post by jimed14 on May 21, 2022 16:15:55 GMT -5
So when you say get rid of people because they are unlucky and only for that reason, do you think that's intelligent? Jim, we're talking two separate issues. When I watch a game I dont give a flying crap about what should be/could be, I dont give a damn. If the Sox are losing 4-3 in the bottom of the 9th with runners on 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs and somebody bloops a 2 run single at 75 mph do I really care if it's a lucky hit? Or conversely do i really take solace in knowing that a 105 mph out at the wall is how they lose 4-3? Who cares? If I'm a GM, different story. I look at these predictors to make an informed decision. When I'm watching a game I'm a fan. When evaulauting the team i put on my GM hat. I know these advanced tools are useful, but i also know there are flaws to them, so that's where the scouting piece comes in. So looking at Verdugo, the guy hits a lot of hard shots at the 2b, so the velocity isnt the end all be all for me. I think Verdugo is at his best when he uses the whole field. I think the 3 early HRs did bad things to him, making him think he's more a power hitter than he is. I think based on his track record he'll eventually start using the whole field and the hits will fall. But then he'll pull some HRs and we'll see a slump and the cycle continues. From the right side John Valentin used to go through the same thing. He was at his best when he wasn't being pull crazy. You mention Boggs in 1992. I think he was distracted by his contract situation the whole year. I grew up a Boggs fan so I never gave up on him, even at .259. I knew his .360 days were over but I thought he was still a .300 hitter. But Sox mgmt after Mrs. Yawkey passed away, didnt want him. They felt they could save money promoting future allstar Scott Cooper, who Butch Hobson was high on, no pun intended. Boggs didnt hit when his head was in a bad place. The Margo stuff didnt affect him but when his mother was killed he slumped badly for a month, understandably, and 1992 was all about his contract, which put him out if his self described cocoon. So when manfred talks about how Verdugo is almost as bad as Travis Shaw even though he has a higher xwOBA than Xander before the game even started, you're going to come rushing to his defense like you have?
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Post by bosoxnation on May 21, 2022 16:20:34 GMT -5
How come Verdugo was pulled? "was feeling sick"
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 21, 2022 16:24:32 GMT -5
Jim, we're talking two separate issues. When I watch a game I dont give a flying crap about what should be/could be, I dont give a damn. If the Sox are losing 4-3 in the bottom of the 9th with runners on 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs and somebody bloops a 2 run single at 75 mph do I really care if it's a lucky hit? Or conversely do i really take solace in knowing that a 105 mph out at the wall is how they lose 4-3? Who cares? If I'm a GM, different story. I look at these predictors to make an informed decision. When I'm watching a game I'm a fan. When evaulauting the team i put on my GM hat. I know these advanced tools are useful, but i also know there are flaws to them, so that's where the scouting piece comes in. So looking at Verdugo, the guy hits a lot of hard shots at the 2b, so the velocity isnt the end all be all for me. I think Verdugo is at his best when he uses the whole field. I think the 3 early HRs did bad things to him, making him think he's more a power hitter than he is. I think based on his track record he'll eventually start using the whole field and the hits will fall. But then he'll pull some HRs and we'll see a slump and the cycle continues. From the right side John Valentin used to go through the same thing. He was at his best when he wasn't being pull crazy. You mention Boggs in 1992. I think he was distracted by his contract situation the whole year. I grew up a Boggs fan so I never gave up on him, even at .259. I knew his .360 days were over but I thought he was still a .300 hitter. But Sox mgmt after Mrs. Yawkey passed away, didnt want him. They felt they could save money promoting future allstar Scott Cooper, who Butch Hobson was high on, no pun intended. Boggs didnt hit when his head was in a bad place. The Margo stuff didnt affect him but when his mother was killed he slumped badly for a month, understandably, and 1992 was all about his contract, which put him out if his self described cocoon. So when manfred talks about how Verdugo is almost as bad as Travis Shaw before the game even started, you're going to come rushing to his defense like you have? I'm not here to "defend" Manfred. I'm not a lawyer paid to "defend" anybody. I wouldn't say Verdugo is as bad as Shaw, but at this point you can fairly say he has done more damage for the 2022 Sox than Shaw had. He only had 19 useless ABs for the Sox before they mercifully pulled the plug on Shaw. Fact of the matter is that he has not helped the Red Sox win games in 2022. Dont believe me...check the actual standings and his actual stats. They are a dozen games behind the Yankees so 1st place hopes are long gone and their only hope is the 3rd wild card and they're not exactly in pole position. Verdugo was a big contributor to this bad position. Will Verdugo play better? You saw my opinion on him. Do I think he's that good the Sox need to think about locking him up beyond his free agent year? No, I don't. I suspect Bloom will trade him within a couple of years.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 21, 2022 16:28:05 GMT -5
Well, this is the best part of the game...Freddie Lynn is on NESN. Only saw him the 1st season I watched the Sox, but he was one of my favorites along with Yaz and Fisk, Dewey, and Rice.
He's more interesting than the game on the field I'm sad to say.
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Post by bosoxnation on May 21, 2022 16:32:44 GMT -5
The real question isn't about Verdugo who is one of the last players on this team I worry about but why Whitlock is still in the rotation. We need back of the bullpen pitchers and he was our very best. WHY WOULD WE NOT TRY HIM OUT AS CLOSER before putting him the rotation when we have Seabold who I believe deserves to be in this rotation until Sale or JP comes back from injury. If we started this season with him as our closer how many more wins do we have? 5-7?
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Post by manfred on May 21, 2022 16:33:06 GMT -5
Jim, we're talking two separate issues. When I watch a game I dont give a flying crap about what should be/could be, I dont give a damn. If the Sox are losing 4-3 in the bottom of the 9th with runners on 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs and somebody bloops a 2 run single at 75 mph do I really care if it's a lucky hit? Or conversely do i really take solace in knowing that a 105 mph out at the wall is how they lose 4-3? Who cares? If I'm a GM, different story. I look at these predictors to make an informed decision. When I'm watching a game I'm a fan. When evaulauting the team i put on my GM hat. I know these advanced tools are useful, but i also know there are flaws to them, so that's where the scouting piece comes in. So looking at Verdugo, the guy hits a lot of hard shots at the 2b, so the velocity isnt the end all be all for me. I think Verdugo is at his best when he uses the whole field. I think the 3 early HRs did bad things to him, making him think he's more a power hitter than he is. I think based on his track record he'll eventually start using the whole field and the hits will fall. But then he'll pull some HRs and we'll see a slump and the cycle continues. From the right side John Valentin used to go through the same thing. He was at his best when he wasn't being pull crazy. You mention Boggs in 1992. I think he was distracted by his contract situation the whole year. I grew up a Boggs fan so I never gave up on him, even at .259. I knew his .360 days were over but I thought he was still a .300 hitter. But Sox mgmt after Mrs. Yawkey passed away, didnt want him. They felt they could save money promoting future allstar Scott Cooper, who Butch Hobson was high on, no pun intended. Boggs didnt hit when his head was in a bad place. The Margo stuff didnt affect him but when his mother was killed he slumped badly for a month, understandably, and 1992 was all about his contract, which put him out if his self described cocoon. So when manfred talks about how Verdugo is almost as bad as Travis Shaw even though he has a higher xwOBA than Xander before the game even started, you're going to come rushing to his defense like you have? He has a -0.6 bWAR to Shaw’s -0.7. Am I exaggerating by saying he’s almost as bad as Shaw? Well… sort of. Obviously he doesn’t *appear* as helpless. I would not call for his release or even benching (and was happy to see Shaw go). This speaks to your idea of anticipating a turn-around. At the same time, he is an everyday player they rely on who has produced miserable results. But as someone said… you are arguing something completely different from what I said. Your expected numbers may suggest how things will break in the future, which had nothing to do with what I was saying. But the comp to Xander *in the past* is irrelevant. Xander has helped the team win. Verdugo hasn’t. Again, I didn’t see that as controversial.
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Post by manfred on May 21, 2022 16:35:05 GMT -5
The real question isn't about Verdugo who is one of the last players on this team I worry about but why Whitlock is still in the rotation. We need back of the bullpen pitchers and he was our very best. WHY WOULD WE NOT TRY HIM OUT AS CLOSER before putting him the rotation when we have Seabold who I believe deserves to be in this rotation until Sale or JP comes back from injury. If we started this season with him as our closer how many more wins do we have? 5-7? But now Seabold is hurt. I think Whitlock remains the young pitcher most likely to be a legit stud in the future, and it seems early to pull him from the rotation.
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Post by jimed14 on May 21, 2022 16:35:13 GMT -5
I'll let you guys have your forum of reading box scores without analysis. Only errors matter for measuring defense. Only outs and hits matter for measuring offense and pitching. Nothing else. I'm not sure why anyone bothers repeating what has happened because everyone already knows.
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Post by bosoxnation on May 21, 2022 16:39:47 GMT -5
The real question isn't about Verdugo who is one of the last players on this team I worry about but why Whitlock is still in the rotation. We need back of the bullpen pitchers and he was our very best. WHY WOULD WE NOT TRY HIM OUT AS CLOSER before putting him the rotation when we have Seabold who I believe deserves to be in this rotation until Sale or JP comes back from injury. If we started this season with him as our closer how many more wins do we have? 5-7? But now Seabold is hurt. I think Whitlock remains the young pitcher most likely to be a legit stud in the future, and it seems early to pull him from the rotation. its probably early to pull him agree, but he was a lights out bullpen pitcher and we went into this season in desperate need of a CL. I just don't understand why we didn't just give him the job from day 1. He just seems like he has the personality and clearly was good enough in the pen to be elite at that position instead of trying something he hasn't proven to be good at. Seabold is 3-1 2.45 era .93 whip and a .179 batting avg against which seems to me is a waste to keep him down there and should of been up here with Whitlock as the CL from day 1.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 21, 2022 16:42:08 GMT -5
I'll let you guys have your forum of reading box scores without analysis. Only errors matter for measuring defense. Only outs and hits matter for measuring offense and pitching. Nothing else. I'm not sure why anyone bothers repeating what has happened because everyone already knows. It's a game thread Jim, based on the emotion of the moment. It is all about the game in front of our face, hence the name gamethread. Not sure why you can't distinguish the difference between the two different issues.
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Post by jimed14 on May 21, 2022 16:42:49 GMT -5
I'll let you guys have your forum of reading box scores without analysis. Only errors matter for measuring defense. Only outs and hits matter for measuring offense and pitching. Nothing else. I'm not sure why anyone bothers repeating what has happened because everyone already knows. It's a game thread Jim, based on the emotion of the moment. It is all about the game in front of our face, hence the name gamethread. Not sure why you can't distinguish the difference between the two different issues. It's the same conversation in every thread. The forum has chased all the stat guys like Eric Van away.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 21, 2022 16:44:23 GMT -5
But now Seabold is hurt. I think Whitlock remains the young pitcher most likely to be a legit stud in the future, and it seems early to pull him from the rotation. its probably early to pull him agree, but he was a lights out bullpen pitcher and we went into this season in desperate need of a CL. I just don't understand why we didn't just give him the job from day 1. He just seems like he has the personality and clearly was good enough in the pen to be elite at that position instead of trying something he hasn't proven to be good at. Seabold is 3-1 2.45 era .93 whip and a .179 batting avg against which seems to me is a waste to keep him down there and should of been up here with Whitlock as the CL from day 1. Can Whitlock even pitch on back to back days and be effective? I understand the desire to have him close but this kid has the stuff to develop into a mid rotation starter. At some point he has to be given the chance to start.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 21, 2022 16:45:35 GMT -5
Whitlock is the team's best starter. You put the best starters in the rotation. You put the worst starters and the guys that can't start in the bullpen.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on May 21, 2022 16:47:59 GMT -5
Sox are crushing the ball. 4 barrels and a .389 XBA
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Post by julyanmorley on May 21, 2022 16:48:11 GMT -5
Good lord Rafi
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on May 21, 2022 16:48:27 GMT -5
Sox are crushing the ball. 4 barrels and a .389 XBA Now 5
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Post by manfred on May 21, 2022 16:48:28 GMT -5
It's a game thread Jim, based on the emotion of the moment. It is all about the game in front of our face, hence the name gamethread. Not sure why you can't distinguish the difference between the two different issues. It's the same conversation in every thread. The forum has chased all the stat guys like Eric Van away. The thing is, you are using *some* stats to make a point (which, at least in part, no one has disagreed with, that Verdugo should snap out of it). Others are using *other* stats to make a point that, I don’t know, you don’t care for or agree with? It isn’t a stats/no-stats, it is speaking at cross purposes. There is no reason for you to get all pissy, nor is there reason to reduce what others are saying to infantile terms.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 21, 2022 16:49:18 GMT -5
Mariners did not get the third time through the order memo
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Post by manfred on May 21, 2022 16:49:51 GMT -5
I’m ready to make Raffy the first trillion-dollar player.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 21, 2022 16:50:15 GMT -5
I’m ready to make Raffy the first trillion-dollar player. Your terms are acceptable
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Post by benzinger on May 21, 2022 16:51:38 GMT -5
For all the stuff Dalbec gets, Verdugo has the same bWAR. They are both closing in on Travis Shaw. They are also both bottom 5 in the AL. Having two of the most worthless players in your lineup not so great. Especially when you haven’t even gotten to JBJ, Vazquez or Kikè yet!
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