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5/19-5/22 Red Sox vs. Mariners Series Thread
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 20, 2022 22:24:30 GMT -5
Sarcasm? I can’t tell. 1/4 of the way through the season he has 1HR and 14RBI’s. I am serious. Big home run. Compare to last year. I've always been a JBJ fan. Love JBJ as a character in a play but.... the compare to last year is the issue.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 20, 2022 23:50:27 GMT -5
Don’t let JBJ get hot.
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Post by ematz1423 on May 21, 2022 4:54:22 GMT -5
You can't convince me there isn't a better option than dalbec in the organization or available for cheap in a trade. Guy is a waste of a roster spot right now. He has a .304 xwOBA and .235 wOBA, so he's not nearly as bad as his results. His xSLG is .153 higher than his SLG%. If I'm reading the numbers correctly thatd put his expected ops around 700. Not exactly above average for a first baseman. Even if hes not nearly as bad as his stats look right now according to statcast numbers, what exactly does that mean since he appears to be one of the worst hitters/players in baseball right now. Even if his numbers stabilize closer to his expected numbers he'd still be a below average player it looks to me. At some point results are results, we're almost 1/4 way through the year. The guys got a .165/.255/.247 slash line. We knew he wouldn't likely ever be a high average guy but that slugging is horrible. He's absolutely not helping this team right now in any way shape or form.
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Post by redsox43 on May 21, 2022 8:49:13 GMT -5
He has a .304 xwOBA and .235 wOBA, so he's not nearly as bad as his results. His xSLG is .153 higher than his SLG%. If I'm reading the numbers correctly thatd put his expected ops around 700. Not exactly above average for a first baseman. Even if hes not nearly as bad as his stats look right now according to statcast numbers, what exactly does that mean since he appears to be one of the worst hitters/players in baseball right now. Even if his numbers stabilize closer to his expected numbers he'd still be a below average player it looks to me. At some point results are results, we're almost 1/4 way through the year. The guys got a .165/.255/.247 slash line. We knew he wouldn't likely ever be a high average guy but that slugging is horrible. He's absolutely not helping this team right now in any way shape or form. He's been a poor defender at first base, too. The only reason why he's coming in for Franchy is because Franchy lacks the experience at first base. Dalbec's days are numbered once Bloom feels Casas is almost ready. He'll be buried in AAA soon, wouldn't be surprised if he's taken off the 40 man roster in the next year via trade or to make room for someone else. He's 27 and doesn't have any real upside at first base for the Sox. Part of me thinks the Sox could have sold higher on Dalbec at some point, but then there's a part of me that thinks "ehh the league might not think too highly of Dalbec to give up anything good. Some rebuilding team could take him on as a flyer, but that may be it."
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Post by jimed14 on May 21, 2022 8:50:53 GMT -5
He has a .304 xwOBA and .235 wOBA, so he's not nearly as bad as his results. His xSLG is .153 higher than his SLG%. If I'm reading the numbers correctly thatd put his expected ops around 700. Not exactly above average for a first baseman. Even if hes not nearly as bad as his stats look right now according to statcast numbers, what exactly does that mean since he appears to be one of the worst hitters/players in baseball right now. Even if his numbers stabilize closer to his expected numbers he'd still be a below average player it looks to me. At some point results are results, we're almost 1/4 way through the year. The guys got a .165/.255/.247 slash line. We knew he wouldn't likely ever be a high average guy but that slugging is horrible. He's absolutely not helping this team right now in any way shape or form. I didn't say it was good. I just said that it's not nearly as horrible as it looks. I'm not sure how you can say you understand that and then say that results are results. It's kind of like how the Red Sox let Wade Boggs go as a free agent after a .259 season, because results are results.
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Post by sibbysisti on May 21, 2022 9:03:22 GMT -5
Dalbec has options remaining. It may be a good idea to send him to Worcester for some training in baseball contact. Casas is on the shelf now with an ankle injury. And there could be ABs there for 3B or DH, maybe even OF. He's not helping the team right now and needs a new approach.Or trade him for a talented though slumping OF.
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Post by redsox43 on May 21, 2022 9:14:33 GMT -5
Dalbec has options remaining. It may be a good idea to send him to Worcester for some training in baseball contact. Casas is on the shelf now with an ankle injury. And there could be ABs there for 3B or DH, maybe even OF. He's not helping the team right now and needs a new approach.Or trade him for a talented though slumping OF. I'd want Franchy to get the at bats at DH, once Casas is up. There's no rush to Casas. If we don't see him until July, no big deal. I don't think that changes the Dalbec perspective. I think there's a chance Dalbec clears waivers if he's DFA'D right now. He's a player with a very limited floor. His value is limited because he only plays first base (with the Sox) and has no hit tool.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,647
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Post by cdj on May 21, 2022 9:16:52 GMT -5
I rarely have dreams and when I do I usually don’t remember them but I had one last night that Dalbec hit a walkoff double high off the wall in left center. Let it be so.
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Post by manfred on May 21, 2022 9:17:32 GMT -5
If I'm reading the numbers correctly thatd put his expected ops around 700. Not exactly above average for a first baseman. Even if hes not nearly as bad as his stats look right now according to statcast numbers, what exactly does that mean since he appears to be one of the worst hitters/players in baseball right now. Even if his numbers stabilize closer to his expected numbers he'd still be a below average player it looks to me. At some point results are results, we're almost 1/4 way through the year. The guys got a .165/.255/.247 slash line. We knew he wouldn't likely ever be a high average guy but that slugging is horrible. He's absolutely not helping this team right now in any way shape or form. I didn't say it was good. I just said that it's not nearly as horrible as it looks. I'm not sure how you can say you understand that and then say that results are results. It's kind of like how the Red Sox let Wade Boggs go as a free agent after a .259 season, because results are results. Results are results, though, in the sense that the Sox are scrambling to make an expanded WC, with virtually no chance of winning the division only 1/4 of the way through the year. This is in no small part due to the abject failure of the bottom half of the lineup. If Dalbec, Verdugo, Kiké et al do get it together and put up decent numbers by year’s end, it will be a bit deceptive: where were they when they were needed? If the Sox are 10 games back with 25 games to go and one of those guys goes on a tear, does that actually justify sticking with them?
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Post by patford on May 21, 2022 9:22:56 GMT -5
I rarely have dreams and when I do I usually don’t remember them but I had one last night that Dalbec hit a walkoff double high off the wall in left center. Let it be so. They need to give Dalbec at least a couple more weeks. It seems inevitable that he will get hot. He is pushing the limit though.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 21, 2022 9:37:47 GMT -5
It definitely does not seem inevitable he will get hot.
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Post by ematz1423 on May 21, 2022 9:41:26 GMT -5
If I'm reading the numbers correctly thatd put his expected ops around 700. Not exactly above average for a first baseman. Even if hes not nearly as bad as his stats look right now according to statcast numbers, what exactly does that mean since he appears to be one of the worst hitters/players in baseball right now. Even if his numbers stabilize closer to his expected numbers he'd still be a below average player it looks to me. At some point results are results, we're almost 1/4 way through the year. The guys got a .165/.255/.247 slash line. We knew he wouldn't likely ever be a high average guy but that slugging is horrible. He's absolutely not helping this team right now in any way shape or form. I didn't say it was good. I just said that it's not nearly as horrible as it looks. I'm not sure how you can say you understand that and then say that results are results. It's kind of like how the Red Sox let Wade Boggs go as a free agent after a .259 season, because results are results. I stand by my original thoughts that at this point you can't convince me there isn't a better option in the system or attainable for cheap. His results have been awful and even his statcast numbers that you pointed out are still probably below average for a first baseman. He's at this point a net negative to the team in my eyes and as I said results are results. Statcast numbers can show one story but quite frankly the only story with dalbec I'm interested in is his actual slash line which is dreadful. If they had a winning record and 6-7 guys hitting above average I'd be inclined to give him more of a leash but they need wins badly right now and he's hurting them in that regard. Of course baseball being the funny game that it is he'll probably go on a hot streak and I'll be eating my words in a week.
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Post by incandenza on May 21, 2022 11:11:50 GMT -5
If I'm reading the numbers correctly thatd put his expected ops around 700. Not exactly above average for a first baseman. Even if hes not nearly as bad as his stats look right now according to statcast numbers, what exactly does that mean since he appears to be one of the worst hitters/players in baseball right now. Even if his numbers stabilize closer to his expected numbers he'd still be a below average player it looks to me. At some point results are results, we're almost 1/4 way through the year. The guys got a .165/.255/.247 slash line. We knew he wouldn't likely ever be a high average guy but that slugging is horrible. He's absolutely not helping this team right now in any way shape or form. He's been a poor defender at first base, too. The only reason why he's coming in for Franchy is because Franchy lacks the experience at first base. Dalbec's days are numbered once Bloom feels Casas is almost ready. He'll be buried in AAA soon, wouldn't be surprised if he's taken off the 40 man roster in the next year via trade or to make room for someone else. He's 27 and doesn't have any real upside at first base for the Sox. Part of me thinks the Sox could have sold higher on Dalbec at some point, but then there's a part of me that thinks "ehh the league might not think too highly of Dalbec to give up anything good. Some rebuilding team could take him on as a flyer, but that may be it." Why do people keep saying this? He's been a totally different defender since mid-season last year, and other than that bad Story throw against Tampa Bay that everyone blamed him for, he's looked good to me. Making scoops and picks and such. His OAA is +2 at 1B, the best of any infielder on the team.
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Post by incandenza on May 21, 2022 11:17:36 GMT -5
Is Verdugo really this bad? What the hell happened to this guy? As I posted earlier, he has a higher xwOBA than Xander this year. Just wait. If you think about it, every roster every season will have, on average, one guy who's at the 96th percentile on their over/under performance, and one guy who's at the 4th percentile. Last season the 4th percentile guy was Eduardo Rodriguez, with his ridiculous ERA/multiverse stats splits. This year it's Verdugo.
But who's our overperformer? We might not have one on the hitting side... Xander's wOBA is 30 points higher than his xwOBA, but that's just par for the course for him. On the pitcher side, though, maybe it's Wacha: 1.76 ERA/4.30 FIP...
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Post by redsox43 on May 21, 2022 11:19:45 GMT -5
He's been a poor defender at first base, too. The only reason why he's coming in for Franchy is because Franchy lacks the experience at first base. Dalbec's days are numbered once Bloom feels Casas is almost ready. He'll be buried in AAA soon, wouldn't be surprised if he's taken off the 40 man roster in the next year via trade or to make room for someone else. He's 27 and doesn't have any real upside at first base for the Sox. Part of me thinks the Sox could have sold higher on Dalbec at some point, but then there's a part of me that thinks "ehh the league might not think too highly of Dalbec to give up anything good. Some rebuilding team could take him on as a flyer, but that may be it." Why do people keep saying this? He's been a totally different defender since mid-season last year, and other than that bad Story throw against Tampa Bay that everyone blamed him for, he's looked good to me. Making scoops and picks and such. His OAA is +2 at 1B, the best of any infielder on the team. -7 DRS 2021. -1 DRS so far in 2022.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on May 21, 2022 11:23:45 GMT -5
Dalbec has options remaining. It may be a good idea to send him to Worcester for some training in baseball contact. Casas is on the shelf now with an ankle injury. And there could be ABs there for 3B or DH, maybe even OF. He's not helping the team right now and needs a new approach.Or trade him for a talented though slumping OF. I'd want Franchy to get the at bats at DH, once Casas is up. There's no rush to Casas. If we don't see him until July, no big deal. I don't think that changes the Dalbec perspective. I think there's a chance Dalbec clears waivers if he's DFA'D right now. He's a player with a very limited floor. His value is limited because he only plays first base (with the Sox) and has no hit tool. No way Dalbec clears waivers IMO. Even if Dalbec isn’t valued that highly, I’d still take him over Chavis, and they got a useful reliever for Chavis
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Post by redsox43 on May 21, 2022 11:25:41 GMT -5
I'd want Franchy to get the at bats at DH, once Casas is up. There's no rush to Casas. If we don't see him until July, no big deal. I don't think that changes the Dalbec perspective. I think there's a chance Dalbec clears waivers if he's DFA'D right now. He's a player with a very limited floor. His value is limited because he only plays first base (with the Sox) and has no hit tool. No way Dalbec clears waivers IMO. Even if Dalbec isn’t valued that highly, I’d still take him over Chavis, and they got a useful reliever for Chavis Fair enough, but Chavis was still young enough (at the time) to take a gamble on for the Pirates. I wouldn't want either player on a roster.
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Post by ematz1423 on May 21, 2022 11:27:34 GMT -5
I'd want Franchy to get the at bats at DH, once Casas is up. There's no rush to Casas. If we don't see him until July, no big deal. I don't think that changes the Dalbec perspective. I think there's a chance Dalbec clears waivers if he's DFA'D right now. He's a player with a very limited floor. His value is limited because he only plays first base (with the Sox) and has no hit tool. No way Dalbec clears waivers IMO. Even if Dalbec isn’t valued that highly, I’d still take him over Chavis, and they got a useful reliever for Chavis I agree with this. There's no reason to DFA him, he has shown enough that he's still an intriguing wildcard for a team if they can wait on him. He's probably got some value still. He's got options left. Send him to AAA to play everyday down there to hopefully develop more.
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Post by benzinger on May 21, 2022 11:32:37 GMT -5
Don’t let Dalbec get hot.
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Post by redsox43 on May 21, 2022 11:42:44 GMT -5
No way Dalbec clears waivers IMO. Even if Dalbec isn’t valued that highly, I’d still take him over Chavis, and they got a useful reliever for Chavis I agree with this. There's no reason to DFA him, he has shown enough that he's still an intriguing wildcard for a team if they can wait on him. He's probably got some value still. He's got options left. Send him to AAA to play everyday down there to hopefully develop more. I guess the developing thing could still work, but he is older and I'm not sure what the Sox can really do to change his game. He just needs to make more contact and maybe there's a way he can? I don't know. He's 27 and there's not a lot of room for there (for development). At some point, he is who he is. Either way there's 40 man roster issues coming up. Josh Taylor Sale Paxton Are all on the 60 day IL and need to be have their 40 man roster spots back at some point. Plus- German Fitzgerald All could be up this year to get a taste of big league action. That's five 40 man roster spots that might need to be cleared up this year. Injuries might clear that up and other DFA's/trades. I'd rather trade Dalbec then DFA him, but if the league doesn't value him, then I don't see a DFA as a out worldly thought.
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Post by ematz1423 on May 21, 2022 11:58:02 GMT -5
I agree with this. There's no reason to DFA him, he has shown enough that he's still an intriguing wildcard for a team if they can wait on him. He's probably got some value still. He's got options left. Send him to AAA to play everyday down there to hopefully develop more. I guess the developing thing could still work, but he is older and I'm not sure what the Sox can really do to change his game. He just needs to make more contact and maybe there's a way he can? I don't know. He's 27 and there's not a lot of room for there (for development). At some point, he is who he is. Either way there's 40 man roster issues coming up. Josh Taylor Sale Paxton Are all on the 60 day IL and need to be have their 40 man roster spots back at some point. Plus- German Fitzgerald All could be up this year to get a taste of big league action. That's five 40 man roster spots that might need to be cleared up this year. Injuries might clear that up and other DFA's/trades. I'd rather trade Dalbec then DFA him, but if the league doesn't value him, then I don't see a DFA as a out worldly thought. His k rate is at a level where I'd have said he'd be a productive player but obviously that's not the case right now. I don't know that contact is the issue. DFA brasier and sawamura but yea I see your point. It's hard to find people to DFA with those players looming.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on May 21, 2022 12:18:23 GMT -5
Xander is in the lineup.
All the lefties are in ...
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Post by manfred on May 21, 2022 13:28:05 GMT -5
For all the stuff Dalbec gets, Verdugo has the same bWAR. They are both closing in on Travis Shaw. They are also both bottom 5 in the AL. Having two of the most worthless players in your lineup not so great.
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Post by ematz1423 on May 21, 2022 13:33:34 GMT -5
For all the stuff Dalbec gets, Verdugo has the same bWAR. They are both closing in on Travis Shaw. They are also both bottom 5 in the AL. Having two of the most worthless players in your lineup not so great. Very fair point, I guess personally I give Verdugo a bigger break than dalbec based off his history. He's still young and has 2.5 years or so of solid production on his resume whereas dalbec basically has a month. But I shouldn't take Verdugo out of my sights either as one of if not the biggest problems of this lineup so far this year. He's been awful when they just need him to be average to slightly above. No excuses.
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Post by jimed14 on May 21, 2022 15:07:19 GMT -5
I didn't say it was good. I just said that it's not nearly as horrible as it looks. I'm not sure how you can say you understand that and then say that results are results. It's kind of like how the Red Sox let Wade Boggs go as a free agent after a .259 season, because results are results. Results are results, though, in the sense that the Sox are scrambling to make an expanded WC, with virtually no chance of winning the division only 1/4 of the way through the year. This is in no small part due to the abject failure of the bottom half of the lineup. If Dalbec, Verdugo, Kiké et al do get it together and put up decent numbers by year’s end, it will be a bit deceptive: where were they when they were needed? If the Sox are 10 games back with 25 games to go and one of those guys goes on a tear, does that actually justify sticking with them? Results are NOT predictive. Why do we have to have this stupid conversation 100 times?
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