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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 27, 2022 12:43:20 GMT -5
Obviously it's Jim Bowden so take it with a whole salt mine but in a trade deadline article he did with Jennings on The Athletic (https://theathletic.com/3377192/2022/06/27/red-sox-trade-possibilities-bowden/) he counters a theoretical trade of Brandon Walter and Wikelman Gonzalez for Gregory Soto (which I would not do) by saying it might need to be Walter AND Bello.
Uh.. what??
Never mind that Walter could probably be a serviceable MLB reliever right now himself, if you put Bello in an MLB bullpen he might be as good as Soto lol
Sign me all the way up for Koss for Robertson, though, Koss is a guy I've been anticipating getting moved for a while due to the 40-man crunch.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 27, 2022 12:47:12 GMT -5
Negativity infinity percent chance Bello gets traded for a reliever, Bowden is an idiot
Koss for Robertson, let’s do. Pretty fair for both sides.
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art
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Post by art on Jun 27, 2022 13:00:36 GMT -5
Negativity infinity percent chance Bello gets traded for a reliever, Bowden is an idiot Koss for Robertson, let’s do. Pretty fair for both sides. I'm all for that but seems like Koss might not be enough. There will be competition. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 27, 2022 13:16:07 GMT -5
That article is wacky.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,700
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Post by nomar on Jun 27, 2022 14:04:33 GMT -5
Yeah these trade ideas read like they were madlibs
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 27, 2022 14:45:19 GMT -5
Soto with the career 4.75 xFIP? Sure. Please bring him to a much smaller ballpark.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jun 27, 2022 14:50:54 GMT -5
Maybe Bowden was thinking about the other Soto? 😅
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 27, 2022 15:03:22 GMT -5
Soto would rank 11th on the Red Sox for pitchers' xwOBA. He's also in the 1st percentile in exit velocity (the bad 1%!) .Definitely a huge upgrade worth both Bello and Walter.
Bowden isn't a GM for good reasons and he shouldn't even be writing for The Athletic either. I expect much more and get much more from all other writers there.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 27, 2022 17:38:51 GMT -5
Wish list
1. Luis Castillo - Cincy - Playoff starter and replaces Eovaldi next year.
2. Bard - Closer - Colorado Ian’s binky😂
3 Josh Bell -1b Nats
Costs
1. Winckowski, young arm & position prospect
2. German
3. Dalbec + lesser prospect
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Post by redsox43 on Jun 27, 2022 20:27:14 GMT -5
Wrote this before, but I don't think the Sox add much payroll this deadline. I think they might actually try to subtract payroll somehow and try to get back under the luxury tax threshold.
The Sox are going to try to pay Xander, Devers, and Sale at the next three years. Contract extensions for Xander and Devers. They'll need the payroll room from seasons 2023-2025.
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Post by redsox43 on Jun 27, 2022 20:30:10 GMT -5
David Robertson seems like the most obvious addition. The Sox need more right handed bullpen relief and he's making cheap money.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jun 27, 2022 20:58:29 GMT -5
Yeah I see Boston addressing 1B and possibly a RP. With Sale and Paxton eventually returning I don't think they need Castillo. Some other team can overpay for him.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jun 27, 2022 21:51:56 GMT -5
Wrote this before, but I don't think the Sox add much payroll this deadline. I think they might actually try to subtract payroll somehow and try to get back under the luxury tax threshold. The Sox are going to try to pay Xander, Devers, and Sale at the next three years. Contract extensions for Xander and Devers. They'll need the payroll room from seasons 2023-2025. I can see where you're going but I don't think these two things are connected.
To limbo under the CBT (and still field an improved, competitive team after the deadline) would be great by itself, basically buying one extra year until the next time it's needed. But that's not even needed to extend X and Raffy because Sale's contract will be up the year before they need to limbo under the CBT (the 2024-25 offseason).
Ultimately, the gamble is that X, Raffy, and Story will be feasible as the huge contracts as long as enough of the young arms can perform as well as any FA arms they might otherwise covet, not to mention position players like Casas, Duran, and eventually Rafaela, Yorke, and Mayer.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jun 27, 2022 21:58:08 GMT -5
JBJ is most interesting to me. They could attach a prospect and dump his money and use that money elsewhere, they could attach a prospect to duck under the tax, they could trade and cover his money to get a fringe prospect back, they could just eat it for the year and phantom IL him when (if?) everybody is healthy. If that happens I bet he’s on the playoff roster. Fascinating, I bet he’s the first shoe to drop and we’ll find out their plans for the year once they make that decision
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jun 27, 2022 21:59:36 GMT -5
Wish list 1. Luis Castillo - Cincy - Playoff starter and replaces Eovaldi next year. 2. Bard - Closer - Colorado Ian’s binky😂 3 Josh Bell -1b Nats Costs 1. Winckowski, young arm & position prospect 2. German 3. Dalbec + lesser prospect Someone get that man a brass oil lamp!
1. I think Castillo is going to cost a lot more than Winck and a couple of 20-something ranked prospects. 2. I'd worry about Bard returning to Fenway triggering a relapse. 3. I'd do that. Had my eye on Bell in the offseason, given that all we knew that we had was a weak-side platoon and an oversized kid with a handful of AAA games of experience. Bell's a switch hitter who's better from the left side, which would've been a perfect fit.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jun 27, 2022 22:10:10 GMT -5
JBJ is most interesting to me. They could attach a prospect and dump his money and use that money elsewhere, they could attach a prospect to duck under the tax, they could trade and cover his money to get a fringe prospect back, they could just eat it for the year and phantom IL him when (if?) everybody is healthy. If that happens I bet he’s on the playoff roster. Fascinating, I bet he’s the first shoe to drop and we’ll find out their plans for the year once they make that decision Very interesting points but I still feel like people still ignore his glove and focus on his bat too much. He's an excellent 4th OF. The priority shouldn't be dumping him, it should be finding a better top-3 OF. Maybe that guy is already on the roster... (Not sayin' but Seiya hasn't played in a month...)
The other thing is -- and I know it's a strange stat outside of Colorado -- that JBJ has been just fine at the plate at home (112 wRC+) and putrid on the road (10). I'm happy riding that for another month or so to see if it's a real thing and using him as a defensive replacement on the road. Obviously, with Kique out and Jarren unvaxxed, that's not ideal for this roadtrip...
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jun 27, 2022 22:40:15 GMT -5
Is there any indication that anyone would want Dalbec or that we could get anything for him? I'd be surprised to be able to use him in the same trade that would net his upgrade.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jun 27, 2022 23:15:25 GMT -5
Is there any indication that anyone would want Dalbec or that we could get anything for him? I'd be surprised to be able to use him in the same trade that would net his upgrade. I think @greg's suggestion is a possibility, four years of Dalbec for two months of a hot-hitting replacement.
I would probably want to see the extra prospect come from WAS rather than BOS though, given that they'd be getting those four years of a guy who could conceivably break out in a huge way under a new organization's hitting coaches.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 27, 2022 23:51:21 GMT -5
You want to start by listing the roster you hope to have in August and September.
Lineup
Vazquez Casas or Cordero / Dalbec. The other LHB is likely on the roster whenever someone is on the IL. Story Devers Bogaerts Verdugo Hernandez Bradley Jr. / Duran / Refsnyder
Vs. RHP you platoon JBJ (home) and Duran (away, in CF with Kiké in RF), with Ref vs. LHP home and away. That's good enough to make a trade for a RF impossible to justify. (This is of course assuming that Ref doesn't collapse, JBJ doesn't stop hitting at Fenway, etc.)
Bench
Plawecki Arroyo
You'll note that this is a 5 man bench, which means a 7 man pen instead of 8, until September. I would institute this as soon as everyone is healthy, because Duran has too much value to option and nothing to learn offensively in AAA. You can go to 13 pitchers whenever a position player is on the IL.
You could trade Arroyo for someone similar who has an option left. Kiké then becomes the backup skill infielder. What you want to avoid is leaving yourself with the 15th best position player on the 40-man, which is to say, the guy who gets called up if you have 2 men hurt, being a choice between Downs, Wong, and R. Hernandez. I think you'll be glad you have Arroyo on the 28 in September; if you swap him out, it has to be for someone as good. I sincerely doubt there's such a trade fit.
Rotation
Sale Eovaldi Pivetta Wacha Paxton
Bullpen
Shreiber Whitlock (minimizing innings) Houck Barnes Strahm Diekman and/or Davis Hill (long / spot starts)
Optioned: Taylor Sawamura Danish
DFA: Robles
Note that it's almost never the case that no pitcher is on the IL, so you don't really have to worry about moving Diekman or Davis. OTOH, if Taylor returns to form, you'll want to deal one of those guys to make room, and if he doesn't, you may well want to deal one and get a better LHR from someone else. If Barnes is good enough to pitch in high leverage -- and I think that's likelier than not -- you already have 5 guys who can pitch in the 7th or later, so in that case it becomes a luxury rather than a need.
So I think that if Taylor doesn't come back to be a high-lev guy, there's a real good chance they add a LHR who they think has significant immediate upside via a tweak of some sort -- basically, this years Robles, who cost nothing and had a nice little run.
Another reason to hesitate on acquiring a bullpen arm at cost is that Bello will almost certainly be in the pen in September, and he could well be electric.
So if we get our wishes I don't see a need for any major acquisition; just something like a 60% chance of adding an interesting LHR and dumping Diekman..
That's a big if, obviously. Barnes is clearly the biggest wild card, with Paxton next. Sale was 5 1 0 0 1 7 against the Astros in game 5 last year before running out of gas, and really looked like his old self, so I think we should be optimistic about him, given that the injury is not to the arm.
So what we're looking at in the next month is the progress of all of the injured pitchers. That will determine how much talent, if any, that we need to add.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 28, 2022 0:03:12 GMT -5
Is there any indication that anyone would want Dalbec or that we could get anything for him? I'd be surprised to be able to use him in the same trade that would net his upgrade. Since the team got its collective head on straight, Dalbec is .278 / .350 / .472 in 40 PA vs. LHP, and his expected line is .239 / .317 / .591. That's a .359 wOBA and .377 xwOBA. And he has yet to have one of his torrid streaks. He can play 3B, and he's working on being able to play LF.
Wannabe championship teams do not trade a guy who's that solid a platoon / bench player, just because you hoped he could be something better. And he still might.
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Post by redsox43 on Jun 28, 2022 0:13:54 GMT -5
I don't think we can expect anything out of Matt Barnes again, maybe ever. Guy is so far off the radar.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 28, 2022 1:42:02 GMT -5
Bowden always says silly things (including that Rafaela and Koss have the same value as trade chips) but it’s probably true that the Red Sox, if they are still in strong contention, are going to make a couple of trades in which they give up more potential future value than they get back in present value (and, ideally, 2023 value)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 28, 2022 7:44:20 GMT -5
I don't think we can expect anything out of Matt Barnes again, maybe ever. Guy is so far off the radar. Agreed. Barnes is such a mess I would not want him on the roster at all. I trust Josh Taylor, if healthy, a helluva lot more than I would trust Barnes. |
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 28, 2022 15:32:35 GMT -5
Wish list 1. Luis Castillo - Cincy - Playoff starter and replaces Eovaldi next year. 2. Bard - Closer - Colorado Ian’s binky😂 3 Josh Bell -1b Nats Costs 1. Winckowski, young arm & position prospect 2. German 3. Dalbec + lesser prospect Someone get that man a brass oil lamp!
1. I think Castillo is going to cost a lot more than Winck and a couple of 20-something ranked prospects. 2. I'd worry about Bard returning to Fenway triggering a relapse. 3. I'd do that. Had my eye on Bell in the offseason, given that all we knew that we had was a weak-side platoon and an oversized kid with a handful of AAA games of experience. Bell's a switch hitter who's better from the left side, which would've been a perfect fit.
Have same concerns about Bard. Doubt he holds up to; Toronto, Houston and MFY’s. I don’t think Robertson does either. I think Castillo could be our ace next year. I’d pay quite a bit. His salary next year will be less than what Eovaldi makes this year. Wink, Groome and Jimenez? |
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 28, 2022 15:51:48 GMT -5
Someone get that man a brass oil lamp!
1. I think Castillo is going to cost a lot more than Winck and a couple of 20-something ranked prospects. 2. I'd worry about Bard returning to Fenway triggering a relapse. 3. I'd do that. Had my eye on Bell in the offseason, given that all we knew that we had was a weak-side platoon and an oversized kid with a handful of AAA games of experience. Bell's a switch hitter who's better from the left side, which would've been a perfect fit.
Have same concerns about Bard. Doubt he holds up to; Toronto, Houston and MFY’s. I don’t think Robertson does either. I think Castillo could be our ace next year. I’d pay quite a bit. His salary next year will be less than what Eovaldi makes this year. Wink, Groome and Jimenez? Castillo would be nice but don't see him coming over without giving up one of the top 3-4 which I'm not sure I'd do. |
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