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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jun 28, 2022 15:55:09 GMT -5
Someone get that man a brass oil lamp!
1. I think Castillo is going to cost a lot more than Winck and a couple of 20-something ranked prospects. 2. I'd worry about Bard returning to Fenway triggering a relapse. 3. I'd do that. Had my eye on Bell in the offseason, given that all we knew that we had was a weak-side platoon and an oversized kid with a handful of AAA games of experience. Bell's a switch hitter who's better from the left side, which would've been a perfect fit.
Have same concerns about Bard. Doubt he holds up to; Toronto, Houston and MFY’s. I don’t think Robertson does either. I think Castillo could be our ace next year. I’d pay quite a bit. His salary next year will be less than what Eovaldi makes this year. Wink, Groome and Jimenez? I'm listening... not sure the Reds would, tho.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jun 28, 2022 16:00:18 GMT -5
I'd offer the Sox choice of Bello/Mata, Murphy/Walter/Groome, Winck/Seabold/Crawford, and a lower rated hitter, something like a Nick Decker or Devlin Granberg, and even then I don't think that's enough. Which is why I hope that the Yankees overpay for him.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jun 28, 2022 16:27:54 GMT -5
A few thoughts about the trade deadline: - Last year’s market was nuts! Just remember that the A’s gave up Jesus Lazardo for 1/2 season of Starling Marte, The Mets traded PCA for half a season of Javier frikking Baez, the CWS traded Madrigal for a 1 season and 1/2 of Kimberl etc etc - Every year, the MFY make the biggest moves at the trade deadline and every year they fail epically. - Last year, 3 of the 4 teams that reached the CS (Astros, Red Sox, Braves) were the ones who have made the less splashy moves. - I firmly think that the upgrades that the Red Sox could make are internal: Bello, Murphy, Mata and German have some serious upside that is hard to find in the relievers market. Triston Casas is a future GG at first base with an elite plate discipline…Oh and we have Chris MFing Sale a year removed from TJS and one of the best LHSP in James Paxton on the way. But the Boston media and this forum among others will get angry because Chaim won’t make the big splashy moves that Cashman will make…like every year.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jun 28, 2022 16:35:10 GMT -5
A few thoughts about the trade deadline: - Last year’s market was nuts! Just remember that the A’s gave up Jesus Lazardo for 1/2 season of Starling Marte, The Mets traded PCA for half a season of Javier frikking Baez, the CWS traded Madrigal for a 1 season and 1/2 of Kimberl etc etc - Every year, the MFY make the biggest moves at the trade deadline and every year they fail epically. - Last year, 3 of the 4 teams that reached the CS (Astros, Red Sox, Braves) were the ones who have made the less splashy moves. - I firmly think that the upgrades that the Red Sox could make are internal: Bello, Murphy, Mata and German have some serious upside that is hard to find in the relievers market. Triston Casas is a future GG at first base with an elite plate discipline…Oh and we have Chris MFing Sale a year removed from TJS and one of the best LHSP in James Paxton on the way. But the Boston media and this forum among others will get angry because Chaim won’t make the big splashy moves that Cashman will make…like every year. Don't forget the Blue Jays trading Austin Martin, the 5th overall pick from 2020, and Simeon Woods Richardson for Jose Berrios only for them to still miss the playoffs and have him not perform well this year. And the Yankees damn near traded 10 out of their top 30 prospects for Gallo, Rizzo, Taillon, and 1 for Andrew Heaney for good measure. Heck even the Rays giving up Joe Ryan and Drew Stotman for Nelson Cruz hurt.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jun 28, 2022 16:42:06 GMT -5
Is there any indication that anyone would want Dalbec or that we could get anything for him? I'd be surprised to be able to use him in the same trade that would net his upgrade. Since the team got its collective head on straight, Dalbec is .278 / .350 / .472 in 40 PA vs. LHP, and his expected line is .239 / .317 / .591. That's a .359 wOBA and .377 xwOBA. And he has yet to have one of his torrid streaks. He can play 3B, and he's working on being able to play LF.
Wannabe championship teams do not trade a guy who's that solid a platoon / bench player, just because you hoped he could be something better. And he still might.
When Bobby was in that torrid streak, some people around here started comparing him to Jim Ed Rice. Sorry, he's not Jim Ed Rice.
Bobby is about to finish his tenth month in the big leagues. Here are his OPS+ numbers for each of those months. Month | OPS+ | Sept 2020
| 159 | April 2021
| 47 | May
| 85 | June | 107 | July | 46 | August | 223 | Sept | 143 | April 2022
| 33 | May | 102 | June | 98 |
I don't know how to make this into a graph but just imagine going to Paragon Park back in the day.
In the off-season, I posted a deep dive comparing Bobby's monthly OPS+ numbers to Jim Ed's and I'm not going to do that again but to refresh your memory (or get an appreciation) for what a monster Rice was, I highly recommend clicking through BRef.
Basically, Bobby came up at the end of the weird covid year and had a great cup of coffee -- best joe you ever tasted -- then he came back for an encore in 2021 and apart from 6 torrid weeks in August and Sept, he really wasn't that good. But those may have been the best six weeks you ever saw (unless you saw Jim Rice in his prime) and it had us begging for more. (And yet, he was virtually unplayable in the post-season, appearing in 8 of the 11 games, going 0-12 with 5 Ks and somehow looking even worse than those numbers.)
He came back this year, with visions of those six breathtaking weeks still dancing in our heads, and after starting out as bad as ever, he's barely creeping back to average production, even with AC picking his spots to play him carefully (and Franchy pushing him off the bag). His defense has improved a bit but he's not exactly JBJ in terms of his glove keeping him on the roster.
So if I can get someone back in a trade (whether a 1B or otherwise) who's demonstrably better today than the average-to-terrible Bobby that we've seen in 7 of his 10 big league months, I'm going for it. That's a win-now move.
N.B. For comparison's sake, Josh Bell's last ten months of OPS+: 106, 32, 121, 138, 135, 127, 148, 193, 83, 195. Yes, please.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jun 28, 2022 16:50:43 GMT -5
A few thoughts about the trade deadline: - Last year’s market was nuts! Just remember that the A’s gave up Jesus Lazardo for 1/2 season of Starling Marte, The Mets traded PCA for half a season of Javier frikking Baez, the CWS traded Madrigal for a 1 season and 1/2 of Kimberl etc etc - Every year, the MFY make the biggest moves at the trade deadline and every year they fail epically. - Last year, 3 of the 4 teams that reached the CS (Astros, Red Sox, Braves) were the ones who have made the less splashy moves. - I firmly think that the upgrades that the Red Sox could make are internal: Bello, Murphy, Mata and German have some serious upside that is hard to find in the relievers market. Triston Casas is a future GG at first base with an elite plate discipline…Oh and we have Chris MFing Sale a year removed from TJS and one of the best LHSP in James Paxton on the way. But the Boston media and this forum among others will get angry because Chaim won’t make the big splashy moves that Cashman will make…like every year. Schwarber was a pretty big splash -- he was one of the hottest hitters on the planet a month before the deadline -- but his injury timing dropped his price pretty significantly, in comparison to the guys you mention. That's Chaim being Chaim.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 28, 2022 17:14:50 GMT -5
I'd offer the Sox choice of Bello/Mata, Murphy/Walter/Groome, Winck/Seabold/Crawford, and a lower rated hitter, something like a Nick Decker or Devlin Granberg, and even then I don't think that's enough. Which is why I hope that the Yankees overpay for him. Not singling out trill here ...iImagine that I've quoted everyone who wants Castillo.
Castillo is indeed the best starting pitcher who will definitely be available.
Castillo is also a name you know from his 2019 ace-and-All Star season. I think people are putting 1 and 1 together and coming up with 1, as in ace. That's reasonable ... until you look at the numbers.
He's now pushing 30. Last year and this (so far) he has been a borderline #2 / #3 starter.
Some contending team that has crap for 5th starter will pay a high price for him, and that will be a good move if it makes the difference between making and missing a Wild Card berth.
Us?
It's actually not clear that he would start for us in the postseason. Paxton was a bit better before he got hurt and Wacha has his magic BABIP thing going that might well be real, and Sale, Eovaldi, and Pivetta should all be better than he is. There's no one you can bump out of the rotation while being certain you've made the team better rather than worse.
Now, if Barnes doesn't come back I'm all over Bard, and I think that every MLB team now knows that relievers have been hugely overvalued in the past.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 28, 2022 17:20:55 GMT -5
Yeah, the Red Sox strike me as highly unlikely to trade for a starting pitcher barring a major setback for one of the injured guys.
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Post by redsox43 on Jun 28, 2022 18:31:58 GMT -5
I'd offer the Sox choice of Bello/Mata, Murphy/Walter/Groome, Winck/Seabold/Crawford, and a lower rated hitter, something like a Nick Decker or Devlin Granberg, and even then I don't think that's enough. Which is why I hope that the Yankees overpay for him. ]Now, if Barnes doesn't come back I'm all over Bard, and I think that every MLB team now knows that relievers have been hugely overvalued in the past.
Bard would be a heck of a story. Didn't even think about that one and he's making low money too, he's definitely a guy they can go after.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 12, 2022 13:39:48 GMT -5
Argue in here
Today Jim Bowden floated a Josh Bell for Bobby Dalbec and Chris Murphy trade idea.
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Post by jaffinator on Jul 12, 2022 15:14:32 GMT -5
Argue in here
Today Jim Bowden floated a Josh Bell for Bobby Dalbec and Chris Murphy trade idea.
From a pure value perspective, I'd do that trade in a second.
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Post by prospectlove on Jul 12, 2022 16:08:18 GMT -5
Argue in here
Today Jim Bowden floated a Josh Bell for Bobby Dalbec and Chris Murphy trade idea.
I don't trust Jim Bowden to be anymore than a bag of gas trying to sell that he's still important or ever was important and "knows things". With that all said, I sure hope that's something he knows and we are able to obtain Josh Bell for that. Sure would be a win I think, given our depth at pitching in high minors and how bad I feel Dalbec has been. It would also be a win for Nationals, as Dalbec is a cheap first baseman and Murphy could be a cheap starter.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 12, 2022 16:16:56 GMT -5
Done and done. Then I’d possibly retain Bell as a DH for when Casas is ready. They may want to go away from having a true DH type though
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 12, 2022 16:17:53 GMT -5
Argue in here Today Jim Bowden floated a Josh Bell for Bobby Dalbec and Chris Murphy trade idea. Seems like a sell-high trade (for the Pirates) on Bell to me. Half of a season of a ~2.5 WAR player should be pretty affordable. Bell's Hard%, Hardhit%, barrel%, Exit velocity and Max Exit velocity are all lower than any of the previous 3 years, yet his BABIP is a career high .326. His K-rate and LD% are both career highs, so there's room for optimism, but I'd be worried that he regresses back to his normal self. Would still help this team, but not a huge impact. Compared to last year's Schwarber trade, Murphy seems like a similarly valuable piece to Aldo Ramirez, which seems more reasonable as a straight-up trade. Then they could send Dalbec down to AAA to work on his swing and positional flexibility. You may be right that that would be the cost for Bell (or it may be higher), but if it is, I'd look to see if Mancini would come cheaper. Or possibly Tommy Pham or Dominic Smith as buy-low options.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 12, 2022 17:14:19 GMT -5
Argue in here Today Jim Bowden floated a Josh Bell for Bobby Dalbec and Chris Murphy trade idea. Seems like a sell-high trade (for the Pirates) on Bell to me. Half of a season of a ~2.5 WAR player should be pretty affordable. Bell's Hard%, Hardhit%, barrel%, Exit velocity and Max Exit velocity are all lower than any of the previous 3 years, yet his BABIP is a career high .326. His K-rate and LD% are both career highs, so there's room for optimism, but I'd be worried that he regresses back to his normal self. Would still help this team, but not a huge impact. Compared to last year's Schwarber trade, Murphy seems like a similarly valuable piece to Aldo Ramirez, which seems more reasonable as a straight-up trade. Then they could send Dalbec down to AAA to work on his swing and positional flexibility. You may be right that that would be the cost for Bell (or it may be higher), but if it is, I'd look to see if Mancini would come cheaper. Or possibly Tommy Pham or Dominic Smith as buy-low options. The Red Sox don't need Tommy Pham on their team. They really don't.
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Post by redsox43 on Jul 12, 2022 18:15:10 GMT -5
Seems like a sell-high trade (for the Pirates) on Bell to me. Half of a season of a ~2.5 WAR player should be pretty affordable. Bell's Hard%, Hardhit%, barrel%, Exit velocity and Max Exit velocity are all lower than any of the previous 3 years, yet his BABIP is a career high .326. His K-rate and LD% are both career highs, so there's room for optimism, but I'd be worried that he regresses back to his normal self. Would still help this team, but not a huge impact. Compared to last year's Schwarber trade, Murphy seems like a similarly valuable piece to Aldo Ramirez, which seems more reasonable as a straight-up trade. Then they could send Dalbec down to AAA to work on his swing and positional flexibility. You may be right that that would be the cost for Bell (or it may be higher), but if it is, I'd look to see if Mancini would come cheaper. Or possibly Tommy Pham or Dominic Smith as buy-low options. The Red Sox don't need Tommy Pham on their team. They really don't. Would be funny to see the Giants get him. (Joc Pederson)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 12, 2022 23:09:51 GMT -5
Man, I wrote a long reply full of stats, accidentally opened something else in the same tab, and the resurrection thing didn't work.
Short version (pre-game thoughts):
They need a LHR, either a good guy they think can be great or this year's Robles. Dump Diekmann, pay some of his $ and get a prospect who's better than his team thinks while doing the opposite with what you give up. They are set at RHR; count the guys.
They'll know whether we need a 2-month rental at 1B. We'll just be guessing.
Franchy's been a -15 R /150 defenders at 1B, which is not good enough, but maybe he projects better. He was very good vs. RHP through 7/1, bad since; they can again project him going forward better than we can.
They know vastly more than we do about Casas and the odds of him being good enough to make any acquisition a losing proposition.
Dalbec, for all his messed-up mentality, has killed LHP in his last 25 PA against them. I don't see where sending him down fixes his head, and he's still a valuable platoon partner. Fox the brain and he's a better everyday 1B than you'll get in trade, I think.
So I'm guessing they don't get a 1B unless someone is undervalued, a la Schwarbs last year.
I'm satisfied with an even platoon split in RF: Ref vs all LHP, JBJ vs RHP at home, Duran vs. RHP on the road (in CF with Kiké in RF). Anyone you pick up at a reasonable cost is unlikely to be better than Ref versus LHP, unlikely to be a significant upgrade to JBJ at home, where his defense will be a big edge, and unlikely to be an offensive upgrade over Duran. The only thing you'd be upgrading a lot is OF defense vs. RHP on the road -- but you'll be paying for a lot more than that.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 12, 2022 23:23:00 GMT -5
Man, I wrote a long reply full of stats, accidentally opened something else in the same tab, and the resurrection thing didn't work.
Short version (pre-game thoughts):
They need a LHR, either a good guy they think can be great or this year's Robles. Dump Diekmann, pay some of his $ and get a prospect who's better than his team thinks while doing the opposite with what you give up. They are set at RHR; count the guys.
They'll know whether we need a 2-month rental at 1B. We'll just be guessing.
Franchy's been a -15 R /150 defenders at 1B, which is not good enough, but maybe he projects better. He was very good vs. RHP through 7/1, bad since; they can again project him going forward better than we can.
They know vastly more than we do about Casas and the odds of him being good enough to make any acquisition a losing proposition.
Dalbec, for all his messed-up mentality, has killed LHP in his last 25 PA against them. I don't see where sending him down fixes his head, and he's still a valuable platoon partner. Fox the brain and he's a better everyday 1B than you'll get in trade, I think.
So I'm guessing they don't get a 1B unless someone is undervalued, a la Schwarbs last year.
I'm satisfied with an even platoon split in RF: Ref vs all LHP, JBJ vs RHP at home, Duran vs. RHP on the road (in CF with Kiké in RF). Anyone you pick up at a reasonable cost is unlikely to be better than Ref versus LHP, unlikely to be a significant upgrade to JBJ at home, where his defense will be a big edge, and unlikely to be an offensive upgrade over Duran. The only thing you'd be upgrading a lot is OF defense vs. RHP on the road -- but you'll be paying for a lot more than that.
This sort of hints at what seems like a conundrum to me: the team is far from perfect, but nothing in particular seems like an urgent need, and at the same time the potential targets are pretty underwhelming, especially on the position player side. So what do you do? Something, probably, but I don't really know what. Guess we'll see.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 13, 2022 10:28:52 GMT -5
Cron is probably not an option because the Rockies are dumb: ADD: Same story on Bard. Even though he's 37 they want to try to extend him, not trade him.
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Post by philip on Jul 13, 2022 10:43:46 GMT -5
Fixing this team starts at first base period. At least the outfielders are giving good defense in right field. I’d even call Mitch Moreland to come out of retirement. What about merloni he would be better than what they have.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 13, 2022 10:47:44 GMT -5
Rockies never sell off impending FAs. Huston Street, Jon Gray, Trevor Story, and there were a few more as well. The odd thing about Colorado is that they wait to pay these guys and then trade them. Cron is going to be too expensive for this team. They're nowhere near being able to GFIN and will probably limp into a wild card spot regardless of the moves they make. I'd trade Xander Nate and JD. You can do this while also grabbing Josh Bell for a decent price if you are able to get that done and get an early look at him. If not then just do what you can to get something for all of your impending FAs that you aren't resigning anyways.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 13, 2022 10:55:17 GMT -5
To be fair they do have Cron under contract for next year on the cheap, so if they think they can be good next season it makes sense to keep him. The delusion is thinking they can be good next year.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 13, 2022 10:55:40 GMT -5
Garrett Cooper is my ideal add at 1st. Righty with basically no splits, controlled and cheap for another year. No real leverage splits, suggests he'll be good in the playoffs and may not have the same velo issues Dalbec has. Bad OF defender but can put him there in a pinch. Metrics are all over the place on his defense so not sure there.
Might command more than the Sox want to pay, or the Marlins might want to keep him, but to me he's the type of guy worth moving on from Dalbec for, moreso than a pure rental.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 13, 2022 11:12:07 GMT -5
I'd offer the Sox choice of Bello/Mata, Murphy/Walter/Groome, Winck/Seabold/Crawford, and a lower rated hitter, something like a Nick Decker or Devlin Granberg, and even then I don't think that's enough. Which is why I hope that the Yankees overpay for him. Not singling out trill here ...iImagine that I've quoted everyone who wants Castillo. Castillo is indeed the best starting pitcher who will definitely be available.
Castillo is also a name you know from his 2019 ace-and-All Star season. I think people are putting 1 and 1 together and coming up with 1, as in ace. That's reasonable ... until you look at the numbers.
He's now pushing 30. Last year and this (so far) he has been a borderline #2 / #3 starter.
Some contending team that has crap for 5th starter will pay a high price for him, and that will be a good move if it makes the difference between making and missing a Wild Card berth. Us?
It's actually not clear that he would start for us in the postseason. Paxton was a bit better before he got hurt and Wacha has his magic BABIP thing going that might well be real, and Sale, Eovaldi, and Pivetta should all be better than he is. There's no one you can bump out of the rotation while being certain you've made the team better rather than worse. Now, if Barnes doesn't come back I'm all over Bard, and I think that every MLB team now knows that relievers have been hugely overvalued in the past.
Heartily Endorse!
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Post by taiwansox on Jul 13, 2022 11:36:57 GMT -5
Rockies never sell off impending FAs. Huston Street, Jon Gray, Trevor Story, and there were a few more as well. The odd thing about Colorado is that they wait to pay these guys and then trade them. Cron is going to be too expensive for this team. They're nowhere near being able to GFIN and will probably limp into a wild card spot regardless of the moves they make. I'd trade Xander Nate and JD. You can do this while also grabbing Josh Bell for a decent price if you are able to get that done and get an early look at him. If not then just do what you can to get something for all of your impending FAs that you aren't resigning anyways. They still think the 2007 Rockies were better than the 2007 Red Sox hahaha
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