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7/4-7/6 Red Sox vs. Rays Series Thread
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Post by incandenza on Jul 6, 2022 12:22:24 GMT -5
Hmm. I don’t remember reading your post, but I’m sure I probably did. I guess your thoughts informed mine today and I wasn’t aware. Credit to you for saying it first, for sure. Great minds think alike! I wonder if there is any scenario where Bello forces them to keep him in the rotation. I know he's not far from his innings limit, but still. He threw 118 IP in 2019, which was 50 more than the year before. Last season he threw 95 and he's at 85 this season. Shouldn't he have at least 50 IP left in him? They could probably use him as a bridge until Paxton is ready, if need be, and if he performs.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 6, 2022 12:48:12 GMT -5
I like the idea of Christian Walker stealing Bobby's RH bat job for the next couple years. We don't really have anyone close in the minors ready for that job. Looks like he's a great defensive 1B too.
Arizona can have Bobby and their pick of one of our meh prospects eating a 40 man roster spot.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 6, 2022 13:31:08 GMT -5
In at the point where i would be 1000% fine letting bogaerts walk. Actually Felger brought up a good point. He said he has no problem letting him go as long as you have an replacement of equal or better. This team can make a lot of moves but it doesn’t have to save money. Money should not be an issue.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 6, 2022 13:31:46 GMT -5
Walker has an xwOBA of .400 this year and severely underperforming it. I doubt they give him up for cheap.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Jul 6, 2022 13:40:11 GMT -5
Bello has pitched in 15 games this season (14 starts and one seven-inning appearance where he threw after an opener). He has gone at least five innings in every start. He threw 5 innings four times. He went six or more innings six times.
If I set his over/under at 4.1 IP for the game this evening, what are you taking? If you think 4.1 isn’t as good number, what is?
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 6, 2022 13:49:41 GMT -5
I agree with you all that Dalbec is a black hole and I would love to trade him for a reliever or a bucket of Big League Chew and have someone else take that roster spot. That said, I also have no problem with Franchy playing every day and Bob mostly riding the bench, and that's been the breakdown lately. If you frame it like that, the need is more a RHH utility guy than an everyday 1B, and with Kiké on the mend I'm not sure we even need that. Franchy's splits against lefties aren't great, but then again it's only been 31 PA.
I think many of the current issues with the roster will sort themselves out once our injured guys start coming back. In the meantime, though, you can never have too much pitching.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 6, 2022 13:51:48 GMT -5
Walker has an xwOBA of .400 this year and severely underperforming it. I doubt they give him up for cheap. Makes sense, he’s always hit lasers when making contact. Hit tool has always been the question there. He’d be a good guy to buy on, Altho he’s the only guy in baseball that’s driven in less of a % of baserunners than Xander and JD (per a soxstats tweet). Sounds like that’s a luck thing with him making relatively consistent quality contact
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 6, 2022 13:52:48 GMT -5
Bello has pitched in 15 games this season (14 starts and one seven-inning appearance where he threw after an opener). He has gone at least five innings in every start. He threw 5 innings four times. He went six or more innings six times. If I set his over/under at 4.1 IP for the game this evening, what are you taking? If you think 4.1 isn’t as good number, what is? I'll take the over. 9 IP sounds about right
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 6, 2022 13:58:13 GMT -5
Spreadsheets have Christian Walker at 1.2 more WAR for the year. Then he's got his last two arb years. He's in his 30s so you gotta knock off .5 WAR per year going forward
2022: 1.2 war for $1.3 million 2023: 2 war for $6 million 2024: 1.5 war for $9 million (prob like 50/50 to actually see this year)
I dunno, Bobby and Groome or something sounds p fair to me
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Post by chrisfromnc on Jul 6, 2022 14:00:55 GMT -5
Bello has pitched in 15 games this season (14 starts and one seven-inning appearance where he threw after an opener). He has gone at least five innings in every start. He threw 5 innings four times. He went six or more innings six times. If I set his over/under at 4.1 IP for the game this evening, what are you taking? If you think 4.1 isn’t as good number, what is? I'll take the over. 9 IP sounds about right My man! A ray of sunshine amidst the clouds. And here I was thinking that optimism wasn’t cool on this message board. Never change.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 6, 2022 14:09:32 GMT -5
Walker has an xwOBA of .400 this year and severely underperforming it. I doubt they give him up for cheap. Makes sense, he’s always hit lasers when making contact. Hit tool has always been the question there. He’d be a good guy to buy on, Altho he’s the only guy in baseball that’s driven in less of a % of baserunners than Xander and JD (per a soxstats tweet). Sounds like that’s a luck thing with him making relatively consistent quality contact Chalk one up for RBI being an analytical tool, lol. Joking aside, the RBI totals for Bogaerts, JDM, and even Devers looks low from what you'd expect. I figured some of that is not having a viable leadoff guy for two months in front of them as they were getting nothing out of the 8/9/1 holes in the order early on. Now, Duran is up and getting on base and the lineup is a bit lengthened, but the RBIs are still being left on base by the middle of the order. Hopefully that'll change and JDM, Bogaerts, etc. start driving in more runs regularly now that they have a leadoff hitter who can get on base. Now that I think of it, Devers whacking HRs in front of X and JDM suppresses some of the RBI opportunities. Honestly I would bat X 2nd and move Devers to 3rd or 4th in the order as I consider X to be more of an OBP guy with some pop, but I know the thinking is to put your best hitter at #2, but I think Devers would knock in more runs batting behind Duran and X...and getting JBJ out of the 9 spot would also help as well. Ideally the Sox get a 1b who can be a middle of the order type hitter and maybe Hernandez comes back to play RF regularly removing JBJ from the lineup and it drops Vazquez to 9th, which means he gets on base more often and provides more RBI opportunities for the #2/#3/#4 hitters. That and it would help if they did capitalize on the opportunities that they do have. Those things matter in close games.
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Post by benzinger on Jul 6, 2022 15:03:21 GMT -5
In at the point where i would be 1000% fine letting bogaerts walk. Actually Felger brought up a good point. He said he has no problem letting him go as long as you have an replacement of equal or better. This team can make a lot of moves but it doesn’t have to save money. Money should not be an issue. Xander picked the wrong year to lose his power. He will be 30 next season and might not get to 20HR’s this year. His defense is average(and he might not remain a SS long-term). I’m not sure he has some $150m+ contract waiting for him in the off-season. The Sox might be able to retain him for less than expected.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 6, 2022 15:04:09 GMT -5
Makes sense, he’s always hit lasers when making contact. Hit tool has always been the question there. He’d be a good guy to buy on, Altho he’s the only guy in baseball that’s driven in less of a % of baserunners than Xander and JD (per a soxstats tweet). Sounds like that’s a luck thing with him making relatively consistent quality contact Chalk one up for RBI being an analytical tool, lol. Joking aside, the RBI totals for Bogaerts, JDM, and even Devers looks low from what you'd expect. I figured some of that is not having a viable leadoff guy for two months in front of them as they were getting nothing out of the 8/9/1 holes in the order early on. Now, Duran is up and getting on base and the lineup is a bit lengthened, but the RBIs are still being left on base by the middle of the order. Hopefully that'll change and JDM, Bogaerts, etc. start driving in more runs regularly now that they have a leadoff hitter who can get on base. Now that I think of it, Devers whacking HRs in front of X and JDM suppresses some of the RBI opportunities. Honestly I would bat X 2nd and move Devers to 3rd or 4th in the order as I consider X to be more of an OBP guy with some pop, but I know the thinking is to put your best hitter at #2, but I think Devers would knock in more runs batting behind Duran and X...and getting JBJ out of the 9 spot would also help as well. Ideally the Sox get a 1b who can be a middle of the order type hitter and maybe Hernandez comes back to play RF regularly removing JBJ from the lineup and it drops Vazquez to 9th, which means he gets on base more often and provides more RBI opportunities for the #2/#3/#4 hitters. That and it would help if they did capitalize on the opportunities that they do have. Those things matter in close games. Yeah I don’t look at it as very predictive, I bet the middle of the order will start to have their hits fall in at good times. Xander’s bomb was certainly a step in the right direction
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Post by incandenza on Jul 6, 2022 15:11:35 GMT -5
Actually Felger brought up a good point. He said he has no problem letting him go as long as you have an replacement of equal or better. This team can make a lot of moves but it doesn’t have to save money. Money should not be an issue. Xander picked the wrong year to lose his power. He will be 30 next season and might not get to 20HR’s this year. His defense is average(and he might not remain a SS long-term). I’m not sure he has some $150m+ contract waiting for him in the off-season. The Sox might be able to retain him for less than expected. I mean, he's on pace for a 6.6 fWAR season, which would be the highest of his career. If he doesn't get $150 million it'll only be because he takes some Correa-style 3/105 offer or something. (Which, by the way, the Red Sox should totally offer him. How can Boras say no to giving Xander the same deal at age 30 that Correa got at age 27?)
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Post by foreverred9 on Jul 6, 2022 15:12:48 GMT -5
RBI in and of itself isn't the best of metrics, but I do find the % of available base metric to be quite informative. They are getting paid the big bucks to drive in batters when it matters, we don't want a team full of A-Rods padding their stats in the 9th inning of a blowout.
I do hope this is a sign of things will likely normalize in the 2nd half.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 6, 2022 15:15:10 GMT -5
Actually Felger brought up a good point. He said he has no problem letting him go as long as you have an replacement of equal or better. This team can make a lot of moves but it doesn’t have to save money. Money should not be an issue. Xander picked the wrong year to lose his power. He will be 30 next season and might not get to 20HR’s this year. His defense is average(and he might not remain a SS long-term). I’m not sure he has some $150m+ contract waiting for him in the off-season. The Sox might be able to retain him for less than expected. I'm pretty shure he has $150 million and then some. Even if he hits 16 homers or 18 or whatever, the guy is going to hit around .300 and get on base a good deal while playing a key defensive position. He certainly has more power than Beintendi and plays a more key position, so he'll get his big bucks. I read an article from Bob Nightingale (I know, I know) that he quoted several executives as anticipating that Bogaerts winds up with the Cubs because of their familiarity with him (Jed Hoyer I believe). Xander is a pure hitter more than he is a power hitter. He is actually playing better defensively at SS this season according to the metrics and the guy is surehanded and it looks like he might stick for another 2 or 3 seasons at SS. My guess is that he winds up getting 200 million on the open market. I can see him getting 7 years 200 million or 8 years 220 million or something like that in free agency. He won't get those numbers for the Red Sox.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 6, 2022 15:17:33 GMT -5
Xander picked the wrong year to lose his power. He will be 30 next season and might not get to 20HR’s this year. His defense is average(and he might not remain a SS long-term). I’m not sure he has some $150m+ contract waiting for him in the off-season. The Sox might be able to retain him for less than expected. I mean, he's on pace for a 6.6 fWAR season, which would be the highest of his career. If he doesn't get $150 million it'll only be because he takes some Correa-style 3/105 offer or something. (Which, by the way, the Red Sox should totally offer him. How can Boras say no to giving Xander the same deal at age 30 that Correa got at age 27?) He can say no because he'll have Xander secure a longer deal with bigger $ that includes an opt out after 3 years. I mean the Sox could offer 3 years $90 million, but he can probably get 7 years 200 million with an opt out after 3 years and 90 million or whatever on the open market.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 6, 2022 15:21:54 GMT -5
I mean, he's on pace for a 6.6 fWAR season, which would be the highest of his career. If he doesn't get $150 million it'll only be because he takes some Correa-style 3/105 offer or something. (Which, by the way, the Red Sox should totally offer him. How can Boras say no to giving Xander the same deal at age 30 that Correa got at age 27?) He can say no because he'll have Xander secure a longer deal with bigger $ that includes an opt out after 3 years. I mean the Sox could offer 3 years $90 million, but he can probably get 7 years 200 million with an opt out after 3 years and 90 million or whatever on the open market. Of course all of that was true of Correa too...
But really I'm just trolling Boras, who made a scandalously cynical move by signing Correa to the deal he did because he had a personal financial interest in doing so. I'd just like to watch him squirm in trying to explain why that offer was good enough for Correa but not Bogaerts. (But alas, shameless people don't really "squirm"...)
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 6, 2022 15:38:28 GMT -5
He can say no because he'll have Xander secure a longer deal with bigger $ that includes an opt out after 3 years. I mean the Sox could offer 3 years $90 million, but he can probably get 7 years 200 million with an opt out after 3 years and 90 million or whatever on the open market. Of course all of that was true of Correa too...
But really I'm just trolling Boras, who made a scandalously cynical move by signing Correa to the deal he did because he had a personal financial interest in doing so. I'd just like to watch him squirm in trying to explain why that offer was good enough for Correa but not Bogaerts. (But alas, shameless people don't really "squirm"...)
Yeah, that would be a difference, wouldn't it, not that Bora$ would make it all about himself, now would he? I suspect X will get a longer deal than 3 years and because of the defense and older age, he wouldn't fetch the annual mark that Correa would. My feeling is that if the Sox meet Xander halfway he'd resign with the Red Sox, but I don't expect the Sox to do that, unless they determine that they have no shot at retaining Devers (which is quite possible) and see Xander as a cheaper long-term palatable option at 3b, but even then they might just let him walk and find a cheaper option.
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Post by redsox43 on Jul 6, 2022 15:43:29 GMT -5
Pretty boring day if you're a Red Sox fan today.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 6, 2022 15:53:29 GMT -5
Pretty boring day if you're a Red Sox fan today. The debut of Roger Clemens in 1984 might have been a little bit duller
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Post by blizzards39 on Jul 6, 2022 15:54:08 GMT -5
Actually Felger brought up a good point. He said he has no problem letting him go as long as you have an replacement of equal or better. This team can make a lot of moves but it doesn’t have to save money. Money should not be an issue. Xander picked the wrong year to lose his power. He will be 30 next season and might not get to 20HR’s this year. His defense is average(and he might not remain a SS long-term). I’m not sure he has some $150m+ contract waiting for him in the off-season. The Sox might be able to retain him for less than expected. Your dreaming. Although X value is Down, he is still at minimum a of a 200M$ player. Only way its less, is it he signs a Correa type 3/110.
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Post by billw on Jul 6, 2022 15:55:24 GMT -5
no Devers again in lineup listed???
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Post by redsox43 on Jul 6, 2022 15:55:31 GMT -5
Pretty boring day if you're a Red Sox fan today. The debut of Roger Clemens in 1984 might have been a little bit duller It's not like Chris Sale is pitching today....ohh wait.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 6, 2022 16:00:29 GMT -5
no Devers again in lineup listed??? Seems that way, must be dealing with something
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