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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 19, 2022 16:11:19 GMT -5
Here are my "super wicked early speculative gut-check predictions" for the 2022 signing season. I don't have any inside info behind this yet, these predictions are just based on gut feel and years of history of making these projections. These initial guesstimates have been fairly solid in years past, but they're just that - projections with a significant amount of possible variability. Feedback is welcome and appreciated. I will update from time to time as more info comes in and as opinions evolve.
Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)
Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus
1. Mikey Romero $2,500,000
2. Cutter Coffey $1,800,000
2. Roman Anthony $2,500,000
3. Dalton Rogers $300,000
4. Chase Meidroth $200,000
5. Noah Dean $343,800
6. Alex Hoppe $10,000
7. Caleb Bolden $10,000
8. Jonathan Brand $10,000
9. Brooks Brannon $750,000
10. Isaac Coffey $10,000
After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap)
None, although Gavin Kilen might be insurance if Brannon does not sign
After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap)
11. Marques Johnson
12. Hayden Mullins
15. Nathan Landry
16. Garrett Ramsey
Draft & Follow candidate not subject to 8/1 signing deadline, may sign for up to $225k and not count against the cap
18. Austin Ehlicher
Total spent towards cap using these projections: $8,433,800
Red Sox Cap: $8,078,300
Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $8,482,215
Super wicked early projected not to sign
13. Gavin Kilen
14. Travis Sanders
17. Deundre Jones
19. Jaret Godman
20. Connor Butler
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 19, 2022 16:19:00 GMT -5
briefcases of cash, etc.
Thanks Mike!
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Post by soxfanatic on Jul 19, 2022 16:19:44 GMT -5
Nice! A yearly tradition.
Why would Butler and Goodman not sign, being college seniors?
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 19, 2022 16:19:45 GMT -5
A couple reminders:
1. August 1 is the signing deadline.
2. There's no cap on NDFAs this year, although anything over 125k counts towards pool $$.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 19, 2022 16:20:43 GMT -5
A couple reminders: 1. August 1 is the signing deadline. 2. There's no cap on NDFAs this year, although anything over 125k counts towards pool $$. I'm going to guess the NDFAs will be at least as interesting as half of the day 3 picks. |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 19, 2022 16:22:44 GMT -5
Draft & Follow candidate not subject to 8/1 signing deadline, may sign for up to $225k and not count against the cap18. Austin Ehlicher Super wicked early projected not to sign13. Gavin Kilen 14. Travis Sanders 17. Deundre Jones 19. Jaret Goodman 20. Connor Butler Hoping we can land one of the two non-rated high schoolers, Sanders or Jones. What is this Draft & Follow thing? I watch every draft pretty closely so that's clearly a new thing but I've never heard of it. |
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 19, 2022 16:23:01 GMT -5
Nice! A yearly tradition. Why would Butler and Goodman not sign, being college seniors? Bigger question is if the club wants/needs to sign them considering roster space in the FCL. |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 19, 2022 16:24:17 GMT -5
I was so locked into Jacob Palisch not being drafted that I totally forgot about another A&M senior I thought was a lock to be drafted, Troy Claunch. I'd go bananas if we were to land him as a UDFA, he's a rock solid defensive catcher who would be great for young pitching staffs.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 19, 2022 16:24:18 GMT -5
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 19, 2022 16:24:54 GMT -5
UNC education can't be all that, Brannon was a 9th-round pick  |
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 19, 2022 16:26:17 GMT -5
The Draft & Follow is an old rule that makes its return under the new CBA. Sometimes it's call the DFE. From Jim Callis: "The draft-and-follow rule returns, allowing clubs that select players who opt to attend junior college to sign them between the end of their juco season and the beginning of the next year's Draft. Any bonus amount over $225,000 will count toward teams' bonus pools. A similar rule existed before being eliminated with the 2007-11 CBA." www.mlb.com/news/draft-rule-changes-with-new-cba |
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 19, 2022 16:28:29 GMT -5
Draft & Follow candidate not subject to 8/1 signing deadline, may sign for up to $225k and not count against the cap18. Austin Ehlicher Super wicked early projected not to sign13. Gavin Kilen 14. Travis Sanders 17. Deundre Jones 19. Jaret Goodman 20. Connor Butler Hoping we can land one of the two non-rated high schoolers, Sanders or Jones. What is this Draft & Follow thing? I watch every draft pretty closely so that's clearly a new thing but I've never heard of it. The signing deadline used to be right before the next year's draft, but you lost a player's rights once they went to a four year college. So you could take guys in junior college and see how their next season goes. Andy Pettitte was a draft and follow. Now there's a special carveout for the signing deadline to let teams do this again. |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 19, 2022 16:35:48 GMT -5
The Draft & Follow is an old rule that makes it return under the new CBA. Sometimes it's call the DFE. From Jim Callis: "The draft-and-follow rule returns, allowing clubs that select players who opt to attend junior college to sign them between the end of their juco season and the beginning of the next year's Draft. Any bonus amount over $225,000 will count toward teams' bonus pools. A similar rule existed before being eliminated with the 2007-11 CBA." www.mlb.com/news/draft-rule-changes-with-new-cbaFun! |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 19, 2022 17:04:37 GMT -5
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Post by Addam603 on Jul 19, 2022 17:16:15 GMT -5
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 19, 2022 17:25:45 GMT -5
the wrong Uconn guy I wanted Reggie Crawford
You know I was thinking why they shy away from High school arms, I bet you statisticaly its not a good investment. These guys run everything thru numbers.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 19, 2022 17:27:24 GMT -5
Draft & Follow candidate not subject to 8/1 signing deadline, may sign for up to $225k and not count against the cap18. Austin Ehlicher Super wicked early projected not to sign13. Gavin Kilen 14. Travis Sanders 17. Deundre Jones 19. Jaret Goodman 20. Connor Butler Hoping we can land one of the two non-rated high schoolers, Sanders or Jones. What is this Draft & Follow thing? I watch every draft pretty closely so that's clearly a new thing but I've never heard of it. I am with you on Jones, That kid was mashing the ball. |
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,966 
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Post by jimoh on Jul 19, 2022 17:35:22 GMT -5
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 19, 2022 18:31:29 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 19, 2022 18:43:36 GMT -5
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 19, 2022 18:52:58 GMT -5
If the later draft means quicker signings then consider me all about it
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jul 19, 2022 19:24:29 GMT -5
Didn't realize how much leverage Round 4-10 guys had when negotiating smaller deals. Was the rule that subtracted unsigned Round 4-10 pick value from the bonus pool part of the new CBA? Seems like it could blow up a teams entire draft strategy if your 5th round guy decided he'd rather take a job than grind it out in the minors on a $10k bonus.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 19, 2022 19:38:17 GMT -5
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 19, 2022 20:08:29 GMT -5
Draft & Follow candidate not subject to 8/1 signing deadline, may sign for up to $225k and not count against the cap18. Austin Ehlicher Super wicked early projected not to sign13. Gavin Kilen 14. Travis Sanders 17. Deundre Jones 19. Jaret Goodman 20. Connor Butler Hoping we can land one of the two non-rated high schoolers, Sanders or Jones. I am most intrigued Deundre Jones of all the picks. |
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Post by tyler3 on Jul 19, 2022 20:15:37 GMT -5
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