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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 26, 2022 15:58:54 GMT -5
Ohtani Wacha Pivetta Bello Whitlock Marcelo, Yorke, Wink, Ward and Crawford for Shohei That doesn't even come close to getting ohtani. I know Soto has an extra year of control but that's probably the package it'd take. Boston also isn't paying Ohtani so whats the point of mortgaging the future for a guy who would be leaving anyways? We're probably looking at Sale Paxton Pivetta Whitlock/Houck/Bello Bargin FA on 1 year deal Wacha is possible if they can get him at something like 1/10 but I could see this team moving on from him to find the next big bargin out there.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 26, 2022 16:07:22 GMT -5
That doesn't even come close to getting ohtani. I know Soto has an extra year of control but that's probably the package it'd take. Boston also isn't paying Ohtani so whats the point of mortgaging the future for a guy who would be leaving anyways? We're probably looking at Sale Paxton Pivetta Whitlock/Houck/Bello Bargin FA on 1 year deal Wacha is possible if they can get him at something like 1/10 but I could see this team moving on from him to find the next big bargin out there. I mean my heart tells me oh boy I sure hope that's not the opening day rotation even tho it's got potential but my brain tells me it's probably pretty close. They'll bring in some starters but it's likely to be something closer to what what we thought Wacha was last offseason which is to say a flawed starter who the sox can get at their price. Probably be two of them. I definitely don't think we'll be sitting here opening day saying oh boy our rotation is going to carry us.
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Post by seamus on Aug 26, 2022 16:24:29 GMT -5
I do hope they make a run at Rodon (4/120?) and either keep Wacha or sign someone else in that 1/10 realm (Manaea? Bassitt?). A top 7 of:
Rodon Sale Paxton Whitlock Bello Pivetta Wacha (or equivalent)
with Crawford/Seabold/Winckowski/Mata/Murphy for internal depth? That seems pretty reasonable even assuming injuries. I'd feel okay with any of those AAA guys as the back-end of the rotation (most #4 and #5 starters aren't all that good), and only counting on Bello to be a #5 would make his 2023 Cy Young award winning campaign even more impactful.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 26, 2022 16:43:59 GMT -5
That doesn't even come close to getting ohtani. I know Soto has an extra year of control but that's probably the package it'd take. Boston also isn't paying Ohtani so whats the point of mortgaging the future for a guy who would be leaving anyways? We're probably looking at Sale Paxton Pivetta Whitlock/Houck/Bello Bargin FA on 1 year deal Wacha is possible if they can get him at something like 1/10 but I could see this team moving on from him to find the next big bargin out there. So another 5th place finish in the AL East?
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Post by seamus on Aug 26, 2022 16:55:40 GMT -5
Boston also isn't paying Ohtani so whats the point of mortgaging the future for a guy who would be leaving anyways? We're probably looking at Sale Paxton Pivetta Whitlock/Houck/Bello Bargin FA on 1 year deal Wacha is possible if they can get him at something like 1/10 but I could see this team moving on from him to find the next big bargin out there. So another 5th place finish in the AL East? The starting pitching hasn't been the issue, though we'd be in better shape if injuries hadn't weakened it. If you look at baseball-reference, the rotation has actually been above average. What's sunk the team has been the bullpen, 1B, and the outfield. If one thinks a combo of Hosmer/Casas fixes 1B well enough and you want to focus on getting impact players in the outfield and trying out new arms for the bullpen, running back a similar rotation next year wouldn't really be an anchor. I hope they try to improve it because of how risky pitching is, but the primary problems with the 2022 team have been the late innings and the black holes in the batting order. Address those issues, and I think you could run back the exact same starting pitching results (with a new cast of characters, probably) and be a playoff team.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 26, 2022 17:05:01 GMT -5
I think there's a reasonable chance they QO eovdaldi and he accepts it. Personally I think that'd be fair for both sides. Eovaldi is talented enough when healthy to br worth that 19 mil flier and it'd just be one year so they can kick the can down a season before investing heavily into the rotation.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 26, 2022 17:06:54 GMT -5
Boston also isn't paying Ohtani so whats the point of mortgaging the future for a guy who would be leaving anyways? We're probably looking at Sale Paxton Pivetta Whitlock/Houck/Bello Bargin FA on 1 year deal Wacha is possible if they can get him at something like 1/10 but I could see this team moving on from him to find the next big bargin out there. So another 5th place finish in the AL East? Lets be real. Most likely
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Post by soxinsf on Aug 26, 2022 17:20:35 GMT -5
So another 5th place finish in the AL East? The starting pitching hasn't been the issue, though we'd be in better shape if injuries hadn't weakened it. If you look at baseball-reference, the rotation has actually been above average. What's sunk the team has been the bullpen, 1B, and the outfield. If one thinks a combo of Hosmer/Casas fixes 1B well enough and you want to focus on getting impact players in the outfield and trying out new arms for the bullpen, running back a similar rotation next year wouldn't really be an anchor. I hope they try to improve it because of how risky pitching is, but the primary problems with the 2022 team have been the late innings and the black holes in the batting order. Address those issues, and I think you could run back the exact same starting pitching results (with a new cast of characters, probably) and be a playoff team. Agree. I am pretty much in the camp of building on what we have. To that end, and because my list does not increase the budget but has the possibilities of full seasons of Sale, Paxton and Bello, I would worry less about the rotation if they are all healthy than I worry about the pen, Eovaldi on a QO or A new guy worthy of 20 mil per year Sale Wacha Pivetta Bello Paxton An insurance guy like Hill who can be a part time 5th guy and long man in the pen. A slew of insurance at Worcester. We’ve got plenty of suspects, including some who might become relievers next year.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 26, 2022 17:38:13 GMT -5
The starting pitching hasn't been the issue, though we'd be in better shape if injuries hadn't weakened it. If you look at baseball-reference, the rotation has actually been above average. What's sunk the team has been the bullpen, 1B, and the outfield. If one thinks a combo of Hosmer/Casas fixes 1B well enough and you want to focus on getting impact players in the outfield and trying out new arms for the bullpen, running back a similar rotation next year wouldn't really be an anchor. I hope they try to improve it because of how risky pitching is, but the primary problems with the 2022 team have been the late innings and the black holes in the batting order. Address those issues, and I think you could run back the exact same starting pitching results (with a new cast of characters, probably) and be a playoff team. Agree. I am pretty much in the camp of building on what we have. To that end, and because my list does not increase the budget but has the possibilities of full seasons of Sale, Paxton and Bello, I would worry less about the rotation if they are all healthy than I worry about the pen, Eovaldi on a QO or A new guy worthy of 20 mil per year Sale Wacha Pivetta Bello Paxton An insurance guy like Hill who can be a part time 5th guy and long man in the pen. A slew of insurance at Worcester. We’ve got plenty of suspects, including some who might become relievers next year. This is what I'm expecting. I really don't see a big splurge coming on a de grom/verlander/rodon type. I think they have enough depth of borderline 5th starter/minor leaguers who can come up and make spot starts when the inevitable sale/eovaldi and maybe Paxton if he's deemed healthy enough to keep happens. Mata has looked good in his comeback so add him to the list. I also think Whitlock is a starter caliber talent. I can probably talk myself into saying sale/eovaldi/Pivetta/whitlock/bello/Mata/Winckowski/seabold can be a serviceable rotation not to mention signing a couple reclamation guys like wacha/hill. Maybe they even bring back Wacha. The bullpen is what needs fixing not necessarily the rotation. But in that regard putting Whitlock as a starter would be robbing Peter to pay Paul type of deal so who knows.
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Post by manfred on Aug 26, 2022 17:42:49 GMT -5
So another 5th place finish in the AL East? Lets be real. Most likely I am ever the pessimist with Bloom, but c’mon. It is very early to say 5th again. I do think all the other teams (except very possibly the Yankees, who could lose Judge) project to be better. But stuff happens. And we certainly have no idea what the Sox will look like.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 26, 2022 18:21:23 GMT -5
Lets be real. Most likely I am ever the pessimist with Bloom, but c’mon. It is very early to say 5th again. I do think all the other teams (except very possibly the Yankees, who could lose Judge) project to be better. But stuff happens. And we certainly have no idea what the Sox will look like. The problem is we know a little bit of what the 2023 Sox will look like. Tea leaves state that Eovaldi is gone and Wacha unless he really falls apart is going to be out of the Sox range. If you're two top starters are Sale and Paxton then its probably going to be a dog fight for 4th place with Baltimore.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 26, 2022 18:30:53 GMT -5
I am ever the pessimist with Bloom, but c’mon. It is very early to say 5th again. I do think all the other teams (except very possibly the Yankees, who could lose Judge) project to be better. But stuff happens. And we certainly have no idea what the Sox will look like. The problem is we know a little bit of what the 2023 Sox will look like. Tea leaves state that Eovaldi is gone and Wacha unless he really falls apart is going to be out of the Sox range. If you're two top starters are Sale and Paxton then its probably going to be a dog fight for 4th place with Baltimore. If the top starters going into next year are sale and Paxton I'll grab my pitchfork and come for Bloom. I don't think Bloom is delusional so I don't think that's going to be the case. If that's the case they'll be lucky to win 70 games.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 26, 2022 18:33:55 GMT -5
The problem is we know a little bit of what the 2023 Sox will look like. Tea leaves state that Eovaldi is gone and Wacha unless he really falls apart is going to be out of the Sox range. If you're two top starters are Sale and Paxton then its probably going to be a dog fight for 4th place with Baltimore. If the top starters going into next year are sale and Paxton I'll grab my pitchfork and come for Bloom. I don't think Bloom is delusional so I don't think that's going to be the case. If that's the case they'll be lucky to win 70 games. Eh I think they'd win more than 70 but probably not much more than 80. Maybe it keeps them in wild card contention depending what other bargin basement SP they get to replace Nate and how he does.
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Post by soxinsf on Aug 26, 2022 18:41:16 GMT -5
I am ever the pessimist with Bloom, but c’mon. It is very early to say 5th again. I do think all the other teams (except very possibly the Yankees, who could lose Judge) project to be better. But stuff happens. And we certainly have no idea what the Sox will look like. The problem is we know a little bit of what the 2023 Sox will look like. Tea leaves state that Eovaldi is gone and Wacha unless he really falls apart is going to be out of the Sox range. If you're two top starters are Sale and Paxton then its probably going to be a dog fight for 4th place with Baltimore. If the rotation is Sale, Paxton, Bello, Hill and Crawford, you won’t be the only one reaching for a pitchfork.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 26, 2022 18:42:54 GMT -5
If the top starters going into next year are sale and Paxton I'll grab my pitchfork and come for Bloom. I don't think Bloom is delusional so I don't think that's going to be the case. If that's the case they'll be lucky to win 70 games. Eh I think they'd win more than 70 but probably not much more than 80. Maybe it keeps them in wild card contention depending what other bargin basement SP they get to replace Nate and how he does. I think they'll offer Nate the QO which he'll accept. I think health permitting going into next year their 5 starters will be sale/nate/pivetta/whitlock/FA in the mold of wacha maybe even wacha with bello/winck/seabold/Mata as depth options.
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cdj
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Posts: 13,371
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Post by cdj on Aug 26, 2022 18:57:27 GMT -5
The problem is we know a little bit of what the 2023 Sox will look like. Tea leaves state that Eovaldi is gone and Wacha unless he really falls apart is going to be out of the Sox range. If you're two top starters are Sale and Paxton then its probably going to be a dog fight for 4th place with Baltimore. If the rotation is Sale, Paxton, Bello, Hill and Crawford, you won’t be the only one reaching for a pitchfork. Hill’s not even gonna play in the first half of next year before eventually picking a contender it would seem so there’s almost no chance that’s the rotation
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 26, 2022 18:57:39 GMT -5
Eh I think they'd win more than 70 but probably not much more than 80. Maybe it keeps them in wild card contention depending what other bargin basement SP they get to replace Nate and how he does. I think they'll offer Nate the QO which he'll accept. I think health permitting going into next year their 5 starters will be sale/nate/pivetta/whitlock/FA in the mold of wacha maybe even wacha with bello/winck/seabold/Mata as depth options. We'll see. I think they're just going to let Nate and JD walk. Maybe Wacha gets a QO but doubt that. Xander I'm 99.9% sure does. But then again with these guys you never know.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 26, 2022 19:05:22 GMT -5
I think they'll offer Nate the QO which he'll accept. I think health permitting going into next year their 5 starters will be sale/nate/pivetta/whitlock/FA in the mold of wacha maybe even wacha with bello/winck/seabold/Mata as depth options. We'll see. I think they're just going to let Nate and JD walk. Maybe Wacha gets a QO but doubt that. Xander I'm 99.9% sure does. But then again with these guys you never know. It's going to be interesting to see. Maybe Bloom doesn't find eovaldi worth the QO. I think personally hes worth offering it. He'd either decline it and they'd get a pick and the Sox get something for a player they don't want back or he takes it and honestly 19 mil for 1 year of a pitcher with eovaldis upside is a great deal to me.
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Post by blizzards39 on Aug 26, 2022 20:05:12 GMT -5
Can’t count on either sale or Paxton( if he is even back). Need 5 before this. I’m not sure wink is more than a 6/7 guy. Bello may or may not be ready. 1- ? 2- ? 3- Pivetta 4- Bello 5- Crawford Need 2 more options. I’d say good chance 1 of wacha or Evo are back and then realy need a guy who can stay somewhat healthy and eat some innings.
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Post by bosoxnation on Aug 26, 2022 20:26:43 GMT -5
So another 5th place finish in the AL East? Lets be real. Most likely So on In august 2022 your prediction is we finish in last next season. I hope you realize how ridiculous that is.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 26, 2022 20:40:09 GMT -5
Lets be real. Most likely So on In august 2022 your prediction is we finish in last next season. I hope you realize how ridiculous that is. Its really not. Orioles have a bunch of young improving talent coming into the majors. Right now they're just figuring it out and are a few games up on Boston. Eovaldi looks like hes gone. Wacha is probably gone. The FA market is not good. So you're left with scratch tickets or guys in Worcester to fill out the rotation. Then you also come to the realization that X and JD will most likely be playing elsewhere next year and once again a really weak FA class. The Sox are by far the least stable team in the East. Not particularly close either.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 26, 2022 20:47:03 GMT -5
So on In august 2022 your prediction is we finish in last next season. I hope you realize how ridiculous that is. Its really not. Orioles have a bunch of young improving talent coming into the majors. Right now they're just figuring it out and are a few games up on Boston. Eovaldi looks like hes gone. Wacha is probably gone. The FA market is not good. So you're left with scratch tickets or guys in Worcester to fill out the rotation. Then you also come to the realization that X and JD will most likely be playing elsewhere next year and once again a really weak FA class. The Sox are by far the least stable team in the East. Not particularly close either. I mean it is pretty ridiculous and then you point to JD being gone as a reason, I'm sorry but JD isn't good anymore. Getting that money back to spend on hopefully good players will be helpful. I'll give you losing X would be a reason but that'd be completely ignoring the likely possibility he's either back or they replace him with a good player. Might they finish last in the AL East? Sure but I don't think it likely.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 27, 2022 9:09:14 GMT -5
So on In august 2022 your prediction is we finish in last next season. I hope you realize how ridiculous that is. Its really not. Orioles have a bunch of young improving talent coming into the majors. Right now they're just figuring it out and are a few games up on Boston. Eovaldi looks like hes gone. Wacha is probably gone. The FA market is not good. So you're left with scratch tickets or guys in Worcester to fill out the rotation. Then you also come to the realization that X and JD will most likely be playing elsewhere next year and once again a really weak FA class. The Sox are by far the least stable team in the East. Not particularly close either. It's pretty funny that your prediction for 2023 is that Bloom is going to let a bunch of players leave and then just not replace them.
I guess I agree with you that if this is what Bloom does the team will stink. But it's a blindingly ridiculous scenario.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 27, 2022 9:45:56 GMT -5
Its really not. Orioles have a bunch of young improving talent coming into the majors. Right now they're just figuring it out and are a few games up on Boston. Eovaldi looks like hes gone. Wacha is probably gone. The FA market is not good. So you're left with scratch tickets or guys in Worcester to fill out the rotation. Then you also come to the realization that X and JD will most likely be playing elsewhere next year and once again a really weak FA class. The Sox are by far the least stable team in the East. Not particularly close either. It's pretty funny that your prediction for 2023 is that Bloom is going to let a bunch of players leave and then just not replace them.
I guess I agree with you that if this is what Bloom does the team will stink. But it's a blindingly ridiculous scenario.
People really think they’re gonna operate with a $100 mill payroll, it’s astonishing
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Post by manfred on Aug 27, 2022 10:08:56 GMT -5
So on In august 2022 your prediction is we finish in last next season. I hope you realize how ridiculous that is. Its really not. Orioles have a bunch of young improving talent coming into the majors. Right now they're just figuring it out and are a few games up on Boston. Eovaldi looks like hes gone. Wacha is probably gone. The FA market is not good. So you're left with scratch tickets or guys in Worcester to fill out the rotation. Then you also come to the realization that X and JD will most likely be playing elsewhere next year and once again a really weak FA class. The Sox are by far the least stable team in the East. Not particularly close either. I don’t know why you assume Wacha is gone (or Nate). If they are in the plan, I think they are both back. If not, it is because they get someone else. I mean, I agree the Sox face more questions than many of the teams, though the Yankees actually risk the biggest catastrophe if they lose Judge. But those questions make it impossible to know. I am very concerned. But there is time for a lot to happen. The Orioles are a lot better, but they still have very poor starting pitching. Their pen gas been great this year, but who knows if that happens again?
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