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Post by Guidas on Aug 27, 2022 12:34:39 GMT -5
Lets be real. Most likely So on In august 2022 your prediction is we finish in last next season. I hope you realize how ridiculous that is. If that's the planned on starting staff, yes, that's my prediction. If you're relying on both Sale and Paxton to get you through a season, you're engaging in magical thinking. Pivetta is a 4 and maybe a 5, not a 3. Houck still has a very hard time getting lefties out from the pen. I can't imagine that will improve if he goes into the rotation. I think by combining Whitlock and Bello you get one #3/4 starter. Whitlock has never pitched more than 121 innings in a year. As a starter, he profiled as a 3/4. Bello has never gone more than 120 innings, either. A bargain bin #5 is exactly that. So, yes, 5th place in the AL East with that staff.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 27, 2022 12:40:21 GMT -5
Its really not. Orioles have a bunch of young improving talent coming into the majors. Right now they're just figuring it out and are a few games up on Boston. Eovaldi looks like hes gone. Wacha is probably gone. The FA market is not good. So you're left with scratch tickets or guys in Worcester to fill out the rotation. Then you also come to the realization that X and JD will most likely be playing elsewhere next year and once again a really weak FA class. The Sox are by far the least stable team in the East. Not particularly close either. It's pretty funny that your prediction for 2023 is that Bloom is going to let a bunch of players leave and then just not replace them.
I guess I agree with you that if this is what Bloom does the team will stink. But it's a blindingly ridiculous scenario.
He'll replace them. But again where will the replacements come from? You have a ton of salary coming off the books and a really crappy market to choose from. The organization seems to be against long term deals so he'll probably go with a few pillow contracts and see if they work out. Other than Story has he signed anyone over 2 years on the open market? The payroll is probably going to be around 170. Which is fine but this will still be a very flawed team. For what its worth the rotation isn't even the big issue here. They have no defense and no offense so it doesn't matter who they throw out there.
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Post by worldbfree on Aug 27, 2022 13:45:47 GMT -5
It's pretty funny that your prediction for 2023 is that Bloom is going to let a bunch of players leave and then just not replace them.
I guess I agree with you that if this is what Bloom does the team will stink. But it's a blindingly ridiculous scenario.
He'll replace them. But again where will the replacements come from? You have a ton of salary coming off the books and a really crappy market to choose from. The organization seems to be against long term deals so he'll probably go with a few pillow contracts and see if they work out. Other than Story has he signed anyone over 2 years on the open market? The payroll is probably going to be around 170. Which is fine but this will still be a very flawed team. For what its worth the rotation isn't even the big issue here. They have no defense and no offense so it doesn't matter who they throw out there. Where are you getting $170 million? Why couldn't it be $200 million? Just wondering how any of us know how much the Sox are going to spend. I do know ownership doesn't seem to take losing seasons very well. My guess is that they expect Bloom and Cora to do better.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 27, 2022 13:56:49 GMT -5
It's pretty funny that your prediction for 2023 is that Bloom is going to let a bunch of players leave and then just not replace them.
I guess I agree with you that if this is what Bloom does the team will stink. But it's a blindingly ridiculous scenario.
He'll replace them. But again where will the replacements come from? You have a ton of salary coming off the books and a really crappy market to choose from. The organization seems to be against long term deals so he'll probably go with a few pillow contracts and see if they work out. Other than Story has he signed anyone over 2 years on the open market? The payroll is probably going to be around 170. Which is fine but this will still be a very flawed team. For what its worth the rotation isn't even the big issue here. They have no defense and no offense so it doesn't matter who they throw out there. "I'm not saying he won't replace them. I'm saying he'll let them leave but there will be no one else on the free agent market who can replace them and also the team budget will be $60 million below the CBT."
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 27, 2022 14:55:53 GMT -5
The discussion of a payroll far below the CBT is silly. We've had the same ownership group for 2 decades and they've consistently been willing to spend up-to the CBT and are intermittently willing to go over the CBT for a couple of years at a time. There's no reason to think this has, or will, change. The CBT for 2023 is 233mil. (About 210mil available for contract AAVs)
Here are the Red Sox current internal options for the rotation:
Sale Pivetta Whitlock Houck Bello Crawford Winckowski Walter Murphy Seabold
That is tremendous depth along with a tremendous amount of question marks. They will also have Mata and Ward not far off while Eovaldi, Wacha and Paxton are options to return.
DeGrom, Nola and Rodon appear to be the best free agent pitchers and I'd like to see the Red Sox pick one of them up then use the rest of the money elsewhere, in order to utilize the built up pitching depth (above). But Chaim's general MO seems to be to spread the money around.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 27, 2022 14:59:23 GMT -5
So on In august 2022 your prediction is we finish in last next season. I hope you realize how ridiculous that is. If that's the planned on starting staff, yes, that's my prediction. If you're relying on both Sale and Paxton to get you through a season, you're engaging in magical thinking. Pivetta is a 4 and maybe a 5, not a 3. Houck still has a very hard time getting lefties out from the pen. I can't imagine that will improve if he goes into the rotation. I think by combining Whitlock and Bello you get one #3/4 starter. Whitlock has never pitched more than 121 innings in a year. As a starter, he profiled as a 3/4. Bello has never gone more than 120 innings, either. A bargain bin #5 is exactly that. So, yes, 5th place in the AL East with that staff. In terms of fWAR, Pivetta has been the 54th best starting pitcher this year. Last year he was the 61st best starting pitcher. I think he's established himself squarely as a #3 type pitcher - he isn't flashy, but he's consistently solid. That said, I would also be happier if the Red Sox had 3 or 4 better pitcher ahead of him.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Aug 27, 2022 15:11:04 GMT -5
The discussion of a payroll far below the CBT is silly. We've had the same ownership group for 2 decades and they've consistently been willing to spend up-to the CBT and are intermittently willing to go over the CBT for a couple of years at a time. There's no reason to think this has, or will, change. The CBT for 2023 is 233mil. (About 210mil available for contract AAVs) Here are the Red Sox current internal options for the rotation: Sale Pivetta Whitlock Houck Bello Crawford Winckowski Walter Murphy Seabold That is tremendous depth along with a tremendous amount of question marks. They will also have Mata and Ward not far off while Eovaldi, Wacha and Paxton are options to return. DeGrom, Nola and Rodon appear to be the best free agent pitchers and I'd like to see the Red Sox pick one of them up then use the rest of the money elsewhere, in order to utilize the built up pitching depth (above). But Chaim's general MO seems to be to spread the money around. The depth they have already plus someone like Rodon and renegotiating with Paxton offers some huge upside. The 90th percentile outcomes of a Sale/Rodon/Paxton/Whitlock/Bello rotation is elite. That also has some huge injury risk and guys who haven't thrown full seasons yet, but they have depth to fall back on, and it's hard to see a realistic way they gather a group better off than that without spending a ton of money and/or trading away a lot of value from the farm system.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 27, 2022 17:16:21 GMT -5
So, Eovaldi is gone and will not get a QO after this latest IL trip. What do we have?
I'm curious why you're confident Eovaldi won't get a QO. I don't think it's a lock anymore, but I think it's at least a toss up. Here's my thinking: 1) Would someone offer Eovaldi a multi-year deal this offseason, even at lower than QO AAV? I think yes - I could totally see a 3/39 or something in that ballpark. Next year is his age 33 season and he has had injury issues, but he's found a way to start a reasonable amount of games most seasons and he was 4th in the Cy Young voting last season. Would this sort of deal be off the table if a QO were attached, or off the table *enough* for Eovaldi to accept the QO? I would say probably no to the former and maybe to the latter; it's hard to say.2) Would Eovaldi on a ~1/19 be the end of the world next year? There's plenty of bust potential if he gets hurt and I would prefer to spend the money differently if we don't go over the tax (who knows), but I don't think that would be the end of the world either. If we do intend to go over the tax, that money means little; I think the possibility of a comp pick would be worth the QO. I don't think any decision about the tax will have been made by the time QOs are due, but Bloom & Co. may at least have a thought, and that might influence their QO decision. 1) I think 3/39 is absolutely in the ballpark for his nexr contract. But giving up a draft choice, too? So my answer to the two questions are, very likely yes, the QO scares everyone else away, and, yes he accepts the QO, in a heartbeat.
2) If you do everything else right, there's no guarantee that Eovaldo is good enough to start a postseason game. If you have Sale, Pivetta, Wacha, and Whitlock, you really want to fill the last rotation spot with a relatively inexpensive upside guy.
Let's do the math. If you don't offer a QO, you obtain the best bang-for-buck starter available and their long-terms value. Let's call the excess value of this guy BBAV (bang-for-buck acquisition value).
And let's call the odds of Eovaldi signing with a team despite their losing a draft pick SRLM (somebody really likes me).
Finally, Eovaldi's excess value projects to be roughky zero, so we can leave that out of the equations.
If you do not offer him a QO, you get:
BBAV.
If you do offer him a QO, you get:
SRLM * (BBAV + value of draft pick)
If the SRLM odds are 50%, your returns is half BBAV plus half the value of the draft pick. That's obviously way lower than BBAV, since BBAV is way larger than the draft pick value.
The SRLM odds have to be way above 50%, when in fact they don't approach that.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Aug 27, 2022 17:18:51 GMT -5
The discussion of a payroll far below the CBT is silly. We've had the same ownership group for 2 decades and they've consistently been willing to spend up-to the CBT and are intermittently willing to go over the CBT for a couple of years at a time. There's no reason to think this has, or will, change. The CBT for 2023 is 233mil. (About 210mil available for contract AAVs) Here are the Red Sox current internal options for the rotation: Sale Pivetta Whitlock Houck Bello Crawford Winckowski Walter Murphy Seabold That is tremendous depth along with a tremendous amount of question marks. They will also have Mata and Ward not far off while Eovaldi, Wacha and Paxton are options to return. DeGrom, Nola and Rodon appear to be the best free agent pitchers and I'd like to see the Red Sox pick one of them up then use the rest of the money elsewhere, in order to utilize the built up pitching depth (above). But Chaim's general MO seems to be to spread the money around. Am I missing something, or does Nola not have a pretty cheap option for next season?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 27, 2022 17:51:53 GMT -5
BTW, the odds of picking up another Wacha are slimmer than i thought. This doesn't change the math for picking up a guy with upside. I think that Richards would have been another feather in Bloom's cap had they not taken away his best pitch, the sticky-stuffer, and it seems as of they were right about Perez and just not patient enough ... although that spot did go to Wacha.
So, since 2018, when Wacha first evinced a skill for karma on balls in play, just two starters have had two seasons with wOBA - xwOBA that was -.030 or better -- Wacha and Brett Anderson.
Except that Wacha has done it three times. And he has the 2nd and 4th best seasons for the differential ... out of about 750 seasons.
If you lower the bar to .025 of good karma, you get 13 pitchers who have done it twice. And I didn't set a different balls-in-play minimum for 2020, these are guys who have done it half the time. If this were random, you'd expect about 4 repeaters. Some of the repeaters are likely avoiding pulled fly balls. I don't know who else has an an at'em ball skill like Wacha seems to. But that can be researched.
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Post by soxaddict on Aug 27, 2022 18:02:40 GMT -5
The discussion of a payroll far below the CBT is silly. We've had the same ownership group for 2 decades and they've consistently been willing to spend up-to the CBT and are intermittently willing to go over the CBT for a couple of years at a time. There's no reason to think this has, or will, change. The CBT for 2023 is 233mil. (About 210mil available for contract AAVs) Here are the Red Sox current internal options for the rotation: Sale Pivetta Whitlock Houck Bello Crawford Winckowski Walter Murphy Seabold That is tremendous depth along with a tremendous amount of question marks. They will also have Mata and Ward not far off while Eovaldi, Wacha and Paxton are options to return. DeGrom, Nola and Rodon appear to be the best free agent pitchers and I'd like to see the Red Sox pick one of them up then use the rest of the money elsewhere, in order to utilize the built up pitching depth (above). But Chaim's general MO seems to be to spread the money around. Am I missing something, or does Nola not have a pretty cheap option for next season? The Phils hold a $16M club option ($4.25M buyout) on Nola. He's not going anywhere.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 27, 2022 19:01:35 GMT -5
There's evidence that Pivetta is better than his numbers, and maybe way better. His season: Dates GS wOBA xwOBA to 5/11 5 .452 .496 5/7 - 6/4 6 .242 .307 6/9 to 7/5 6 .352 .370 7/10 - 8/10 6 .512 .432 8/16 - 2 .219 .254
He seems to have very unprepared for a short ST. When he finally got it going, he then pitched like an ace for almost a month.
On June 4 his rotation mates were Eovaldi, Wacha, Whitlock and Hill.
On June 16th, Winckoski replaced Eovaldi. Two days later Crawford subbed for Whitlock as the 5th starter.
On the 27th Seabold became the 5th starter. On July 4 Crawford replaced Wacha, and two days later Bello replaced Hill.
Now, Pivetta started to fade before his rotation mates started to domino. That again suggests someone not in ideal shape.
. You'll note that his transformation from bad to awful coincides exactly withe the last domino falling.
If you were Nick Pivetta and you had a dead arm, of the sort that doesn't hurt but just just robs your stuff of its quality, would you mention this to anyone under these circumstances? No--as the last man standing, you're just going to gut it out.
Sale did return after his first awful start and Eovaldi just before his second ... and Sale broke his finger the day after it.
At some point I may look at pitch velo, etc. But he has shown the stuff of a much better pitcher than his season numbers indicate.
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Post by bcsox on Aug 27, 2022 21:34:15 GMT -5
The Sox were apparently right on Springs as well, just didn’t hold on long enough. They seem to have some skill in finding back of the rotation guys. It is much more difficult but they need to find through their system, in free agency or a trade a top of the rotation guy.
I wouldn’t be surprised if NastyNate has thrown his last pitch of the year. His last 3-4 starts he didn’t have his fastball. He has thrown a lot of pitches and innings for the RS. I think it is time to cut bait. You got the best of him. It was a great trade.
Sale and Paxton cannot be your 1&2 next year, if you are trying to get to the postseason. They have thrown less than 20 innings combined in the past 18 months.
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Post by blizzards39 on Aug 27, 2022 22:23:52 GMT -5
If that's the planned on starting staff, yes, that's my prediction. If you're relying on both Sale and Paxton to get you through a season, you're engaging in magical thinking. Pivetta is a 4 and maybe a 5, not a 3. Houck still has a very hard time getting lefties out from the pen. I can't imagine that will improve if he goes into the rotation. I think by combining Whitlock and Bello you get one #3/4 starter. Whitlock has never pitched more than 121 innings in a year. As a starter, he profiled as a 3/4. Bello has never gone more than 120 innings, either. A bargain bin #5 is exactly that. So, yes, 5th place in the AL East with that staff. In terms of fWAR, Pivetta has been the 54th best starting pitcher this year. Last year he was the 61st best starting pitcher. I think he's established himself squarely as a #3 type pitcher - he isn't flashy, but he's consistently solid. That said, I would also be happier if the Red Sox had 3 or 4 better pitcher ahead of him. 3rd pitcher in an average team
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 28, 2022 12:21:35 GMT -5
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Post by manfred on Aug 28, 2022 13:18:23 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Aug 28, 2022 14:19:18 GMT -5
Pete Abraham also said one of Cora or Bloom will more than likely get fired after this season if they don't make the playoffs. I like the suggestion of Thor but anything more than 3 years is nutty given his injury history. I am not sure I consider Abraham a legit source. He does a lot of the above - combining wishcasting with "just sayin." That's the Murry Chass model, which is basically a pre-moneyball slant on reporting. But sure, Thor probably likes Fenway and the Sox signing him could happen...just sayin'
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Post by larrycook on Aug 28, 2022 15:10:39 GMT -5
Pate Abraham also said one of Cora or Bloom will more than likely get fired after this season if they don't make the playoffs. ' Seems kind of harsh when you consider all the injuries we have had this season. Four starters missing a month of the season.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 28, 2022 16:21:40 GMT -5
Pate Abraham also said one of Cora or Bloom will more than likely get fired after this season if they don't make the playoffs. ' Seems kind of harsh when you consider all the injuries we have had this season. Four starters missing a month of the season. Agree, but that's just an example of how he integrates wishcasts/just sayin' into his reporting. Here's the exact excerpt: John Henry and Tom Werner have been impulsive with their baseball operations chiefs over the last decade. Ben Cherington lasted a little less than four years. Dombrowski got a little more than four years. Each put together a World Series champion.
Chaim Bloom is coming up on three years in October and has not won the World Series. Public perception has turned sharply against him in recent weeks after a convoluted and unsuccessful approach to the trade deadline.
If the owners decide to ax him after the season, Bloom could argue that unlike Cherington and Dombrowski, he never had a chance to hire his own manager.
The owners made it clear in 2020 they wanted Cora back after his suspension and Bloom went along. Bloom could ask for another chance with his own manager and maybe the owners would go along with that. It’s unlikely. But given the volatility at Fenway, anything is possible.
One way or another, it feels like a decision between Bloom or Cora is coming.He's right about Henry and Werner being impulsive (or at least impatient) with their heads of baseball ops over the last decade. But the rest is rife with a few facts to support his conjecture.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 28, 2022 18:16:50 GMT -5
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 28, 2022 19:06:34 GMT -5
During the broadcast today they talked to Rich Hill and asked him about the idea of pitching next year, but only starting halfway through the season, after his son gets through his Little League (or whatever) season. Sounds interesting. Like an academic going into "phased retirement" where you only teach half as much. Could get some starts and some bullpen work.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 28, 2022 19:14:58 GMT -5
In terms of fWAR, Pivetta has been the 54th best starting pitcher this year. Last year he was the 61st best starting pitcher. I think he's established himself squarely as a #3 type pitcher - he isn't flashy, but he's consistently solid. That said, I would also be happier if the Red Sox had 3 or 4 better pitcher ahead of him. 3rd pitcher in an average team Yep - that's why he's been our #1. There are only 10 teams with 3 starters over 2 fWAR. Pivetta is a pretty good (and dependable) starting pitcher.
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Post by juanpena on Aug 28, 2022 20:34:03 GMT -5
There's evidence that Pivetta is better than his numbers, and maybe way better. His season: Dates GS wOBA xwOBA to 5/11 5 .452 .496 5/7 - 6/4 6 .242 .307 6/9 to 7/5 6 .352 .370 7/10 - 8/10 6 .512 .432 8/16 - 2 .219 .254
He seems to have very unprepared for a short ST. When he finally got it going, he then pitched like an ace for almost a month.
On June 4 his rotation mates were Eovaldi, Wacha, Whitlock and Hill.
On June 16th, Winckoski replaced Eovaldi. Two days later Crawford subbed for Whitlock as the 5th starter.
On the 27th Seabold became the 5th starter. On July 4 Crawford replaced Wacha, and two days later Bello replaced Hill.
Now, Pivetta started to fade before his rotation mates started to domino. That again suggests someone not in ideal shape.
. You'll note that his transformation from bad to awful coincides exactly withe the last domino falling.
If you were Nick Pivetta and you had a dead arm, of the sort that doesn't hurt but just just robs your stuff of its quality, would you mention this to anyone under these circumstances? No--as the last man standing, you're just going to gut it out.
Sale did return after his first awful start and Eovaldi just before his second ... and Sale broke his finger the day after it.
At some point I may look at pitch velo, etc. But he has shown the stuff of a much better pitcher than his season numbers indicate.
I think he's just very inconsistent. He's very good to have because he always takes the ball, but the performance is up and down. I don't think it's fatigue or who his rotation mates are. At times he looked really promising with the Phillies, too. He'd be a fabulous No. 5 starter, an very good no. 4 and an acceptable No. 3. That's good to have in 2023 and 2024, but I don't think he's better than that. And he was a great get by Bloom making the trade a big win whether or not Seabold ever contributes.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 29, 2022 8:44:07 GMT -5
Speier with a sobering piece about the state of the MLB staff, now and looking forward. It's not pretty. For all the folks who believe Pivetta's numbers show he is still more a 2/3 than a 4/5, consider this excerpt: Nick Pivetta has established himself as roughly a league-average starter who reliably takes his turn every five games — certainly a valuable trait, though his poor performance against AL East opponents (1-6, 7.24 ERA in 11 starts after Sunday’s five-inning, five-run yield) has been cause for concern.Speier does talk about injuries and their dramatic impact, but that component was part of Bloom's rotation construction. When you're relying on guys who are coming off injuries (Sale, Wacha, Hill), expecting them to hold up is engaging in magical thinking. So is expecting a guy like Paxton coming off TJ to be your "equivalent of a mid- or late-season acquisition." Other than Sale and Eovaldi (whom he could've traded in the off-season if there was a free agent who he would've rather committed to long or short term, such as Gausman or Rodón), Bloom built this rotation. He also passed on some significant free agents in the off-season—which was curious given that he went over this year—and now will either have to outbid the market for deGrom, Verlander or Rodón (with presumably more years to a deal) or Thor (ditto on the multi-year deal), trade away top talent for a controllable 1-2 starter, or be stuck with picking from the remaining lesser free agents this winter (esp. compared to 2022), or go shopping in the bargain bin. Again. And then there's the pen, which has been a particular weakness. This is always a challenge for any GM/President of Baseball Ops, but that's why they get the big bucks. Or, as Speier says: As has been the case with the rotation, Bloom and the Sox have tried to focus on low-dollar value bullpen signings in recent years. While that’s yielded two fantastic bargains in Whitlock and Schreiber, the absence of standout bullpen depth has positioned the team poorly for those times when the rotation has been thinned by injuries, inexperience, and poor performance.And then there are the prospects. While we love the idea of Bello, Crawford and (at least some here) Winckowski, they are still young and finding their way. While Bello has a lot of promise, he still needs to work on control and could probably use a couple of months in AAA. Crawford wins the overachiever of the year trophy, but he still has significant troubles with lefties and ultimately may end up in the pen. Winckowski is a -0.1 fWAR pitcher and looks every bit of that. He doe not belong in the rotation of a playoff-contending team as anything beyond a one-time emergency starter. Counting on anything beyond that is more of the same. And, as much as we love our prospects, Murphy and Mata project as relievers and Ward and Walter as likely back-end starters or relievers and maybe German, although it's curious why they didn't bring him up earlier with such a leaky pen. Other than those guys and Bello and Crawford no one else in the prospect ranks looks to be ready to help the Sox next year, and most are not proven, either. If pitching wins championships, overall, this GM did not set his team up for success this year, given how many previously injured pitchers he relied on for starters. The cupboard looks rather bare going forward, with Sale (if he doesn't break something in spring training) and Pivetta being your only guaranteed starters. Does that fill anyone here with confidence? It will be interesting to see how he approaches the off-season with so many holes to fill (center field, right field, first base, catcher, SS, at least 3 starters and several relievers). It may be the difference between not just a winning season but Bloom keeping his job beyond 2023.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 29, 2022 9:05:56 GMT -5
Speier with a sobering piece about the state of the MLB staff, now and looking forward. It's not pretty. For all the folks who believe Pivetta's numbers show he is still more a 2/3 than a 4/5, consider this excerpt: Nick Pivetta has established himself as roughly a league-average starter who reliably takes his turn every five games — certainly a valuable trait, though his poor performance against AL East opponents (1-6, 7.24 ERA in 11 starts after Sunday’s five-inning, five-run yield) has been cause for concern.Speier does talk about injuries and their dramatic impact, but that component was part of Bloom's rotation construction. When you're relying on guys who are coming off injuries (Sale, Wacha, Hill), expecting them to hold up is engaging in magical thinking. So is expecting a guy like Paxton coming off TJ to be your "equivalent of a mid- or late-season acquisition." Other than Sale and Eovaldi (whom he could've traded in the off-season if there was a free agent who he would've rather committed to long or short term, such as Gausman or Rodón), Bloom built this rotation. He also passed on some significant free agents in the off-season—which was curious given that he went over this year—and now will either have to outbid the market for deGrom, Verlander or Rodón (with presumably more years to a deal) or Thor (ditto on the multi-year deal), trade away top talent for a controllable 1-2 starter, or be stuck with picking from the remaining lesser free agents this winter (esp. compared to 2022), or go shopping in the bargain bin. Again. And then there's the pen, which has been a particular weakness. This is always a challenge for any GM/President of Baseball Ops, but that's why they get the big bucks. Or, as Speier says: As has been the case with the rotation, Bloom and the Sox have tried to focus on low-dollar value bullpen signings in recent years. While that’s yielded two fantastic bargains in Whitlock and Schreiber, the absence of standout bullpen depth has positioned the team poorly for those times when the rotation has been thinned by injuries, inexperience, and poor performance.And then there are the prospects. While we love the idea of Bello, Crawford and (at least some here) Winckowski, they are still young and finding their way. While Bello has a lot of promise, he still needs to work on control and could probably use a couple of months in AAA. Crawford wins the overachiever of the year trophy, but he still has significant troubles with lefties and ultimately may end up in the pen. Winckowski is a -0.1 fWAR pitcher and looks every bit of that. He doe not belong in the rotation of a playoff-contending team as anything beyond a one-time emergency starter. Counting on anything beyond that is more of the same. And, as much as we love our prospects, Murphy and Mata project as relievers and Ward and Walter as likely back-end starters or relievers and maybe German, although it's curious why they didn't bring him up earlier with such a leaky pen. Other than those guys and Bello and Crawford no one else in the prospect ranks looks to be ready to help the Sox next year, and most are not proven, either. If pitching wins championships, overall, this GM did not set his team up for success this year, given how many previously injured pitchers he relied on for starters. The cupboard looks rather bare going forward, with Sale (if he doesn't break something in spring training) and Pivetta being your only guaranteed starters. Does that fill anyone here with confidence? It will be interesting to see how he approaches the off-season with so many holes to fill (center field, right field, first base, catcher, SS, at least 3 starters and several relievers). It may be the difference between not just a winning season but Bloom keeping his job beyond 2023. Wacha and Hill were not coming off of injuries. Aside from missing a couple of starts in May Wacha was healthy all year. He pitched the second most innings on the Rays last year and had 29 appearances, 24 as a starter and 5 as either a follower or a bulk reliever. Hill was also healthy all year. He made 31 starts.
Wacha, Hill, and Pivetta have collectively been a ridiculously good value this year even with the injuries to Wacha and Hill. 61 GS, 326 IP, 4.4 fWAR, $14.65 million salary. Certainly seems like Bloom did well with his shoestring rotation.
Paxton was not being counted on down the stretch. If everything went well the expectation was that he would be able to pitch in 2022, but he was certainly not being counted on to start meaningful games. The contract was clearly signed with an eye towards 2023-2024, with 2022 being more of an interesting flier at a contributor down the stretch.
Sale was being counted on but was of course unavailable due to three freak injuries over the year. Can't blame Bloom for that. The guy's under contract and had fully recovered from TJ.
Eovaldi was being counted on too, and he hasn't been great, injuries aside. 0.7 fWAR in 99.2 IP (18 GS) is well worse than Wacha, Hill, and Pivetta. It's also worse on a rate basis than Bello and Crawford.
It is way too soon to jump to any long term conclusions about Crawford, Winckowski, and Bello. Winckowski (24) and Bello (23) in particular are both very young. I'm not sure what you're reading that says Mata projects as a reliever. SP has that as one potential option, but has his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter. He would not be the 7th overall prospect on this site if he had high reliever risk. A similar argument applies to Murphy at 11th overall. For all of these guys the correct approach is "wait and see".
"Aside from these several prospects who I'm writing off, and these handful of ML contributors, who have done well, but who I'm also writing off, Bloom's probably going to be on the hot seat soon"
Edit: Also "at least three starters and several relievers?" Where is this coming from? If you think we need at least three starters, that means guys like Bello, Crawford, Winckowski, Whitlock, and Houck are going to the pen and therefore we don't need several relievers. We definitely need a few arms, but it's not nearly that dire. I don't think catcher is a hole either. Wong/McGuire should be perfectly solid as a platoon, especially with more pressing holes to fill at SS, CF, and RF. 1B is set too. Hosmer was not great with SDP, but barring sudden decline he's absolutely good enough to throw out there on a league minimum deal, especially when the top 1B prospect in the majors is waiting in AAA. If Dalbec stays in town and hits well enough to play against lefties, all the better. If not I think Hosmer can play every day until Casas is ready (which could even be Opening Day).
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