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Post by Guidas on Aug 29, 2022 9:58:54 GMT -5
Speier with a sobering piece about the state of the MLB staff, now and looking forward. It's not pretty. For all the folks who believe Pivetta's numbers show he is still more a 2/3 than a 4/5, consider this excerpt: Nick Pivetta has established himself as roughly a league-average starter who reliably takes his turn every five games — certainly a valuable trait, though his poor performance against AL East opponents (1-6, 7.24 ERA in 11 starts after Sunday’s five-inning, five-run yield) has been cause for concern.Speier does talk about injuries and their dramatic impact, but that component was part of Bloom's rotation construction. When you're relying on guys who are coming off injuries (Sale, Wacha, Hill), expecting them to hold up is engaging in magical thinking. So is expecting a guy like Paxton coming off TJ to be your "equivalent of a mid- or late-season acquisition." Other than Sale and Eovaldi (whom he could've traded in the off-season if there was a free agent who he would've rather committed to long or short term, such as Gausman or Rodón), Bloom built this rotation. He also passed on some significant free agents in the off-season—which was curious given that he went over this year—and now will either have to outbid the market for deGrom, Verlander or Rodón (with presumably more years to a deal) or Thor (ditto on the multi-year deal), trade away top talent for a controllable 1-2 starter, or be stuck with picking from the remaining lesser free agents this winter (esp. compared to 2022), or go shopping in the bargain bin. Again. And then there's the pen, which has been a particular weakness. This is always a challenge for any GM/President of Baseball Ops, but that's why they get the big bucks. Or, as Speier says: As has been the case with the rotation, Bloom and the Sox have tried to focus on low-dollar value bullpen signings in recent years. While that’s yielded two fantastic bargains in Whitlock and Schreiber, the absence of standout bullpen depth has positioned the team poorly for those times when the rotation has been thinned by injuries, inexperience, and poor performance.And then there are the prospects. While we love the idea of Bello, Crawford and (at least some here) Winckowski, they are still young and finding their way. While Bello has a lot of promise, he still needs to work on control and could probably use a couple of months in AAA. Crawford wins the overachiever of the year trophy, but he still has significant troubles with lefties and ultimately may end up in the pen. Winckowski is a -0.1 fWAR pitcher and looks every bit of that. He doe not belong in the rotation of a playoff-contending team as anything beyond a one-time emergency starter. Counting on anything beyond that is more of the same. And, as much as we love our prospects, Murphy and Mata project as relievers and Ward and Walter as likely back-end starters or relievers and maybe German, although it's curious why they didn't bring him up earlier with such a leaky pen. Other than those guys and Bello and Crawford no one else in the prospect ranks looks to be ready to help the Sox next year, and most are not proven, either. If pitching wins championships, overall, this GM did not set his team up for success this year, given how many previously injured pitchers he relied on for starters. The cupboard looks rather bare going forward, with Sale (if he doesn't break something in spring training) and Pivetta being your only guaranteed starters. Does that fill anyone here with confidence? It will be interesting to see how he approaches the off-season with so many holes to fill (center field, right field, first base, catcher, SS, at least 3 starters and several relievers). It may be the difference between not just a winning season but Bloom keeping his job beyond 2023. Wacha and Hill were not coming off of injuries. Aside from missing a couple of starts in May Wacha was healthy all year. He pitched the second most innings on the Rays last year and had 29 appearances, 24 as a starter and 5 as either a follower or a bulk reliever. Hill was also healthy all year. He made 31 starts. Wacha, Hill, and Pivetta have collectively been a ridiculously good value this year even with the injuries to Wacha and Hill. 61 GS, 326 IP, 4.4 fWAR, $14.65 million salary. Certainly seems like Bloom did well with his shoestring rotation.
Paxton was not being counted on down the stretch. If everything went well the expectation was that he would be able to pitch in 2022, but he was certainly not being counted on to start meaningful games. The contract was clearly signed with an eye towards 2023-2024, with 2022 being more of an interesting flier at a contributor down the stretch.
Sale was being counted on but was of course unavailable due to three freak injuries over the year. Can't blame Bloom for that. The guy's under contract and had fully recovered from TJ. Eovaldi was being counted on too, and he hasn't been great, injuries aside. 0.7 fWAR in 99.2 IP (18 GS) is well worse than Wacha, Hill, and Pivetta. It's also worse on a rate basis than Bello and Crawford.
It is way too soon to jump to any long term conclusions about Crawford, Winckowski, and Bello. Winckowski (24) and Bello (23) in particular are both very young. I'm not sure what you're reading that says Mata projects as a reliever. SP has that as one potential option, but has his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter. He would not be the 7th overall prospect on this site if he had high reliever risk. A similar argument applies to Murphy at 11th overall. For all of these guys the correct approach is "wait and see".
"Aside from these several prospects who I'm writing off, and these handful of ML contributors, who have done well, but who I'm also writing off, Bloom's probably going to be on the hot seat soon" Edit: Also "at least three starters and several relievers?" Where is this coming from? If you think we need at least three starters, that means guys like Bello, Crawford, Winckowski, Whitlock, and Houck are going to the pen and therefore we don't need several relievers. We definitely need a few arms, but it's not nearly that dire. I don't think catcher is a hole either. Wong/McGuire should be perfectly solid as a platoon, especially with more pressing holes to fill at SS, CF, and RF. 1B is set too. Hosmer was not great with SDP, but barring sudden decline he's absolutely good enough to throw out there on a league minimum deal, especially when the top 1B prospect in the majors is waiting in AAA. If Dalbec stays in town and hits well enough to play against lefties, all the better. If not I think Hosmer can play every day until Casas is ready (which could even be Opening Day).
So Alex Speier is getting this all wrong, too? Also, and a I am talking about this year and, more specifically, next year. That's the theme of this thread. 2024-27 or beyond would be another subject 1) No one pays to see value. And value does not always win games, although it's great when it does. Also, as you stated, it is a "shoestring rotation." Why assemble that if you're going over the tax anyway, there were superior options on the free agent market and, according to Bloom, he was not instructed to stay below the tax? 2) Speier identified Pivetta correctly: he's a league-average starter, that is, unless he faces the AL East. Then he's a disaster. Is that your number 3 going forward, given that you play in the AL East? Something needs to change in his approach or repertoire. I've seen Mata multiple times. Those mechanics do not lend themselves to starting over a long period of time. They may just run him out there til he breaks again like the Yankees have with Severino, or they could reduce the risk by putting him in the pen. Also, sure, Murphy and Ward could hit their ceilings, but how often does that happen and do those particular prospects project to do so? The more likely outcomes are back-end starters/relievers. Anything else is a bonus, especially if we're talking about the 2023 rotation, which we are. Do you legitimately see those guys being mid-rotation starters in the AL East next year? I gave Bello and Crawford credit for what they did, but they still have significant flaws they need to work on (control for Bello and better performance against lefties for Crawford). Some guys step up, and others regress. How can you do anything but bank on Winckowski being what he is going forward until he shows you consistently that he's better than that? Anything beyond that is a bonus, but the man has no out-pitch and will either have to find one or continue to be what he is. Finally, "wait and see" is not a strategy for next year. It's part of the long game, especially with projections, but if you want to be a playoff team, you need a bit more certainty than that. Or let me put it another way: imagine in October, Chaim Bloom has his review with John Henry and Tom Werner, and they ask about 2023's projected rotation and slots for Bello, Crawford, Winckowski and any other internal options, how do you think "We'll have to wait and see" will play?
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 29, 2022 11:31:55 GMT -5
Wacha and Hill were not coming off of injuries. Aside from missing a couple of starts in May Wacha was healthy all year. He pitched the second most innings on the Rays last year and had 29 appearances, 24 as a starter and 5 as either a follower or a bulk reliever. Hill was also healthy all year. He made 31 starts. Wacha, Hill, and Pivetta have collectively been a ridiculously good value this year even with the injuries to Wacha and Hill. 61 GS, 326 IP, 4.4 fWAR, $14.65 million salary. Certainly seems like Bloom did well with his shoestring rotation.
Paxton was not being counted on down the stretch. If everything went well the expectation was that he would be able to pitch in 2022, but he was certainly not being counted on to start meaningful games. The contract was clearly signed with an eye towards 2023-2024, with 2022 being more of an interesting flier at a contributor down the stretch.
Sale was being counted on but was of course unavailable due to three freak injuries over the year. Can't blame Bloom for that. The guy's under contract and had fully recovered from TJ. Eovaldi was being counted on too, and he hasn't been great, injuries aside. 0.7 fWAR in 99.2 IP (18 GS) is well worse than Wacha, Hill, and Pivetta. It's also worse on a rate basis than Bello and Crawford.
It is way too soon to jump to any long term conclusions about Crawford, Winckowski, and Bello. Winckowski (24) and Bello (23) in particular are both very young. I'm not sure what you're reading that says Mata projects as a reliever. SP has that as one potential option, but has his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter. He would not be the 7th overall prospect on this site if he had high reliever risk. A similar argument applies to Murphy at 11th overall. For all of these guys the correct approach is "wait and see".
"Aside from these several prospects who I'm writing off, and these handful of ML contributors, who have done well, but who I'm also writing off, Bloom's probably going to be on the hot seat soon" Edit: Also "at least three starters and several relievers?" Where is this coming from? If you think we need at least three starters, that means guys like Bello, Crawford, Winckowski, Whitlock, and Houck are going to the pen and therefore we don't need several relievers. We definitely need a few arms, but it's not nearly that dire. I don't think catcher is a hole either. Wong/McGuire should be perfectly solid as a platoon, especially with more pressing holes to fill at SS, CF, and RF. 1B is set too. Hosmer was not great with SDP, but barring sudden decline he's absolutely good enough to throw out there on a league minimum deal, especially when the top 1B prospect in the majors is waiting in AAA. If Dalbec stays in town and hits well enough to play against lefties, all the better. If not I think Hosmer can play every day until Casas is ready (which could even be Opening Day).
So Alex Speier is getting this all wrong, too? Also, and a I am talking about this year and, more specifically, next year. That's the theme of this thread. 2024-27 or beyond would be another subject 1) No one pays to see value. And value does not always win games, although it's great when it does. Also, as you stated, it is a "shoestring rotation." Why assemble that if you're going over the tax anyway, there were superior options on the free agent market and, according to Bloom, he was not instructed to stay below the tax? 2) Speier identified Pivetta correctly: he's a league-average starter, that is, unless he faces the AL East. Then he's a disaster. Is that your number 3 going forward, given that you play in the AL East? Something needs to change in his approach or repertoire. I've seen Mata multiple times. Those mechanics do not lend themselves to starting over a long period of time. They may just run him out there til he breaks again like the Yankees have with Severino, or they could reduce the risk by putting him in the pen. Also, sure, Murphy and Ward could hit their ceilings, but how often does that happen and do those particular prospects project to do so? The more likely outcomes are back-end starters/relievers. Anything else is a bonus, especially if we're talking about the 2023 rotation, which we are. Do you legitimately see those guys being mid-rotation starters in the AL East next year? I gave Bello and Crawford credit for what they did, but they still have significant flaws they need to work on (control for Bello and better performance against lefties for Crawford). Some guys step up, and others regress. How can you do anything but bank on Winckowski being what he is going forward until he shows you consistently that he's better than that? Anything beyond that is a bonus, but the man has no out-pitch and will either have to find one or continue to be what he is. Finally, "wait and see" is not a strategy for next year. It's part of the long game, especially with projections, but if you want to be a playoff team, you need a bit more certainty than that. Or let me put it another way: imagine in October, Chaim Bloom has his review with John Henry and Tom Werner, and they ask about 2023's projected rotation and slots for Bello, Crawford, Winckowski and any other internal options, how do you think "We'll have to wait and see" will play? You posted one sentence from Speier's article, and I agree with it.
1) Value directly results in winning games. I agree that going over the tax was an unfortunate miss. Going into the year it's possible that they wanted to leave the window open to dipping under, and then made the decision at the deadline that it wasn't worth it. Still, I also would have liked to see more spending during the offseason if going over the tax was likely this year. There's little point in squeaking over the tax.
2) Pivetta is a league average starter including his performance against the AL East, which has been quite bad this year. We're also playing the East a lot less next year and all years going forward. He could certainly improve, but a healthy starter on pace for a healthy ~2-2.5 fWAR season while making $2.65 million is a huge asset. Even with arb raises he should continue to be a good value.
I'm not saying Murphy and Mata and the rest will hit their ceilings. It's just not reasonable to assume they will hit their floors. I'm sure some of them will bust colossally and others will be fabulous. It's just too early to say. Similarly, I'm not banking on Winckowski being substantially better going forward. He's very young, though, and players typically improve with MLB experience and as they reach their physical primes. By that logic, him remaining exactly what he is would be less likely than him improving. Same goes for Bello, and Bello's already been quite good.
If you want to be a playoff team long term, you don't require certainty. You just tilt the odds in your favor by pursuing value and then spending when appropriate. 2023 is no more or less valuable than any year before or after it.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 29, 2022 11:38:38 GMT -5
Speier with a sobering piece about the state of the MLB staff, now and looking forward. It's not pretty. For all the folks who believe Pivetta's numbers show he is still more a 2/3 than a 4/5, consider this excerpt: Nick Pivetta has established himself as roughly a league-average starter who reliably takes his turn every five games — certainly a valuable trait, though his poor performance against AL East opponents (1-6, 7.24 ERA in 11 starts after Sunday’s five-inning, five-run yield) has been cause for concern.Speier does talk about injuries and their dramatic impact, but that component was part of Bloom's rotation construction. When you're relying on guys who are coming off injuries (Sale, Wacha, Hill), expecting them to hold up is engaging in magical thinking. So is expecting a guy like Paxton coming off TJ to be your "equivalent of a mid- or late-season acquisition."Other than Sale and Eovaldi (whom he could've traded in the off-season if there was a free agent who he would've rather committed to long or short term, such as Gausman or Rodón), Bloom built this rotation. He also passed on some significant free agents in the off-season—which was curious given that he went over this year—and now will either have to outbid the market for deGrom, Verlander or Rodón (with presumably more years to a deal) or Thor (ditto on the multi-year deal), trade away top talent for a controllable 1-2 starter, or be stuck with picking from the remaining lesser free agents this winter (esp. compared to 2022), or go shopping in the bargain bin. Again. And then there's the pen, which has been a particular weakness. This is always a challenge for any GM/President of Baseball Ops, but that's why they get the big bucks. Or, as Speier says: As has been the case with the rotation, Bloom and the Sox have tried to focus on low-dollar value bullpen signings in recent years. While that’s yielded two fantastic bargains in Whitlock and Schreiber, the absence of standout bullpen depth has positioned the team poorly for those times when the rotation has been thinned by injuries, inexperience, and poor performance.And then there are the prospects. While we love the idea of Bello, Crawford and (at least some here) Winckowski, they are still young and finding their way. While Bello has a lot of promise, he still needs to work on control and could probably use a couple of months in AAA. Crawford wins the overachiever of the year trophy, but he still has significant troubles with lefties and ultimately may end up in the pen. Winckowski is a -0.1 fWAR pitcher and looks every bit of that. He doe not belong in the rotation of a playoff-contending team as anything beyond a one-time emergency starter. Counting on anything beyond that is more of the same. And, as much as we love our prospects, Murphy and Mata project as relievers and Ward and Walter as likely back-end starters or relievers and maybe German, although it's curious why they didn't bring him up earlier with such a leaky pen. Other than those guys and Bello and Crawford no one else in the prospect ranks looks to be ready to help the Sox next year, and most are not proven, either. If pitching wins championships, overall, this GM did not set his team up for success this year, given how many previously injured pitchers he relied on for starters. The cupboard looks rather bare going forward, with Sale (if he doesn't break something in spring training) and Pivetta being your only guaranteed starters. Does that fill anyone here with confidence? It will be interesting to see how he approaches the off-season with so many holes to fill (center field, right field, first base, catcher, SS, at least 3 starters and several relievers). It may be the difference between not just a winning season but Bloom keeping his job beyond 2023. So this team should simply have spent more money on pitching...
I've mentioned enough times why that is a frustrating and conversation-ending argument. But it's particularly frustrating when it comes to the starting rotation, as this team is spending $59 million this year on three starters - and that is exactly the problem! They've combined for 105 IP and less than 1 WAR.
Meanwhile, Hill and Wacha, at a cost of $12 million, have combined for 178 IP and 2.6 fWAR.
It's just bananas to look at this rotation and think that the "bargain bin diving" on Wacha and Hill has been the problem. Are they injury-prone? Maybe a bit more than average. But they've still combined for more IP than all but one major league pitcher, and both are now healthy. They've also combined for more fWAR than all but 23 qualified starters. (And fWAR is relatively stingy - their bWAR is 4.0.)
So these were very effective bargain bin moves, and much more effective, as far as 2022 goes, than any of the big money moves to build the rotation. But okay, they should simply have added another big contract instead (but presumably not, as you and I wanted last offseason, Eduardo Rodriguez). Then should they not have signed Story? Even subtracting Wacha, Hill, and Paxton doesn't quite get them enough to add Gausman (if they could have psychically predicted he'd be the big winner of the free agent class), and of course we have to wait a few years to see whether or not he turns into a Sale or Eovaldi type contract.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Aug 29, 2022 11:40:29 GMT -5
John Henry, as owner, has won 4 World Series championships during his time with the Red Sox! That is more than 21 of 30 MLB franchises have won in their entire existence! He has earned the right to get beneath the CBT. That said 2020, 2021 (ALCS), and even 2022 have been “using up” the existing big contracts of JD, Price, X, and Eovaldi. In 2023 Bloom will have money to spent and CBT room to do it. “Paying for quality” is really the only way to increase your chances of winning. Yes, accidents like 2013 and 2021 happen, but more often they turn out like 2022…
Bloom’s mistake this year was not trading Renfroe, but replacing him with only JBJ. It was not adding another 2 proven arms to the bullpen, and not adding a proven LH bat at first base (in stead of a used up Shaw). If Bloom again miscalculates in 2023, he may find himself fired soon after. He needs to spend in FA on proven quality (growth stocks instead of value).
I was and am fine with Wacha, Hill, Refsnyder, Pham, Crawford, Bello… contributing their very important part, but the ranks were too thin at several positions. Those positions need to be filled with quality veterans that will cost money if the Red Sox truely are going to compete. Sustainability comes through the farm system, but championships come at the expense of free agency.
….O, that leads me to where I intended to go…
I would start by re-signing Wacha.
1) ? 2) Wacha 3) Sale 4) Whitlock 5) Pivetta 6) Bello 7) Crawford 8) Mata
There is plenty of depth, obviously. The question is….how will the quality and health look? They can rearrange the numbers when they assess what they have (and are yet to have).
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Post by Guidas on Aug 29, 2022 12:01:09 GMT -5
Speier with a sobering piece about the state of the MLB staff, now and looking forward. It's not pretty. For all the folks who believe Pivetta's numbers show he is still more a 2/3 than a 4/5, consider this excerpt: Nick Pivetta has established himself as roughly a league-average starter who reliably takes his turn every five games — certainly a valuable trait, though his poor performance against AL East opponents (1-6, 7.24 ERA in 11 starts after Sunday’s five-inning, five-run yield) has been cause for concern.Speier does talk about injuries and their dramatic impact, but that component was part of Bloom's rotation construction. When you're relying on guys who are coming off injuries (Sale, Wacha, Hill), expecting them to hold up is engaging in magical thinking. So is expecting a guy like Paxton coming off TJ to be your "equivalent of a mid- or late-season acquisition."Other than Sale and Eovaldi (whom he could've traded in the off-season if there was a free agent who he would've rather committed to long or short term, such as Gausman or Rodón), Bloom built this rotation. He also passed on some significant free agents in the off-season—which was curious given that he went over this year—and now will either have to outbid the market for deGrom, Verlander or Rodón (with presumably more years to a deal) or Thor (ditto on the multi-year deal), trade away top talent for a controllable 1-2 starter, or be stuck with picking from the remaining lesser free agents this winter (esp. compared to 2022), or go shopping in the bargain bin. Again. And then there's the pen, which has been a particular weakness. This is always a challenge for any GM/President of Baseball Ops, but that's why they get the big bucks. Or, as Speier says: As has been the case with the rotation, Bloom and the Sox have tried to focus on low-dollar value bullpen signings in recent years. While that’s yielded two fantastic bargains in Whitlock and Schreiber, the absence of standout bullpen depth has positioned the team poorly for those times when the rotation has been thinned by injuries, inexperience, and poor performance.And then there are the prospects. While we love the idea of Bello, Crawford and (at least some here) Winckowski, they are still young and finding their way. While Bello has a lot of promise, he still needs to work on control and could probably use a couple of months in AAA. Crawford wins the overachiever of the year trophy, but he still has significant troubles with lefties and ultimately may end up in the pen. Winckowski is a -0.1 fWAR pitcher and looks every bit of that. He doe not belong in the rotation of a playoff-contending team as anything beyond a one-time emergency starter. Counting on anything beyond that is more of the same. And, as much as we love our prospects, Murphy and Mata project as relievers and Ward and Walter as likely back-end starters or relievers and maybe German, although it's curious why they didn't bring him up earlier with such a leaky pen. Other than those guys and Bello and Crawford no one else in the prospect ranks looks to be ready to help the Sox next year, and most are not proven, either. If pitching wins championships, overall, this GM did not set his team up for success this year, given how many previously injured pitchers he relied on for starters. The cupboard looks rather bare going forward, with Sale (if he doesn't break something in spring training) and Pivetta being your only guaranteed starters. Does that fill anyone here with confidence? It will be interesting to see how he approaches the off-season with so many holes to fill (center field, right field, first base, catcher, SS, at least 3 starters and several relievers). It may be the difference between not just a winning season but Bloom keeping his job beyond 2023. So this team should simply have spent more money on pitching... I've mentioned enough times why that is a frustrating and conversation-ending argument. But it's particularly frustrating when it comes to the starting rotation, as this team is spending $59 million this year on three starters - and that is exactly the problem! They've combined for 105 IP and less than 1 WAR. Meanwhile, Hill and Wacha, at a cost of $12 million, have combined for 178 IP and 2.6 fWAR. It's just bananas to look at this rotation and think that the "bargain bin diving" on Wacha and Hill has been the problem. Are they injury-prone? Maybe a bit more than average. But they've still combined for more IP than all but one major league pitcher, and both are now healthy. They've also combined for more fWAR than all but 23 qualified starters. (And fWAR is relatively stingy - their bWAR is 4.0.) So these were very effective bargain bin moves, and much more effective, as far as 2022 goes, than any of the big money moves to build the rotation. But okay, they should simply have added another big contract instead (but presumably not, as you and I wanted last offseason, Eduardo Rodriguez). Then should they not have signed Story? Even subtracting Wacha, Hill, and Paxton doesn't quite get them enough to add Gausman (if they could have psychically predicted he'd be the big winner of the free agent class), and of course we have to wait a few years to see whether or not he turns into a Sale or Eovaldi type contract.
1) Hey, we were wrong about ERod - though who knew he'd have marriage problems? I remember interviewing an assistant GM for a profile of him. He'd won a world series (and who would go on to win two more) and I asked him what the variables on performance were. He named the usual suspects-injury, getting out of routines, too much partying-but I was a bit shocked when he said, "But next to injuries, one thing that can screw a guy up more than anything is 'the girlfriend problem.'" He went on to say that breaking up with a girlfriend or even falling hard for one, or martial problems "can ruin a season." I understand about a marriage, but when I pressed a little further on the girlfriend thing, he said, "A lot of these guys are in their early or mid-20s, but in a lot of ways, they're still high school heads emotionally for off the field stuff." 2) This assumes that Bloom spent as much as he could. If there was no mandate to stay below, then why not roll the dice on Gausman, or even sign the 2 year deal with an opt out with Rodón? Why go over if you're not going big?
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Post by incandenza on Aug 29, 2022 12:22:51 GMT -5
So this team should simply have spent more money on pitching... I've mentioned enough times why that is a frustrating and conversation-ending argument. But it's particularly frustrating when it comes to the starting rotation, as this team is spending $59 million this year on three starters - and that is exactly the problem! They've combined for 105 IP and less than 1 WAR. Meanwhile, Hill and Wacha, at a cost of $12 million, have combined for 178 IP and 2.6 fWAR. It's just bananas to look at this rotation and think that the "bargain bin diving" on Wacha and Hill has been the problem. Are they injury-prone? Maybe a bit more than average. But they've still combined for more IP than all but one major league pitcher, and both are now healthy. They've also combined for more fWAR than all but 23 qualified starters. (And fWAR is relatively stingy - their bWAR is 4.0.) So these were very effective bargain bin moves, and much more effective, as far as 2022 goes, than any of the big money moves to build the rotation. But okay, they should simply have added another big contract instead (but presumably not, as you and I wanted last offseason, Eduardo Rodriguez). Then should they not have signed Story? Even subtracting Wacha, Hill, and Paxton doesn't quite get them enough to add Gausman (if they could have psychically predicted he'd be the big winner of the free agent class), and of course we have to wait a few years to see whether or not he turns into a Sale or Eovaldi type contract.
1) Hey, we were wrong about ERod - though who knew he'd have marriage problems? I remember interviewing an assistant GM for a profile of him. He'd won a world series (and who would go on to win two more) and I asked him what the variables on performance were. He named the usual suspects-injury, getting out of routines, too much partying-but I was a bit shocked when he said, "But next to injuries, one thing that can screw a guy up more than anything is 'the girlfriend problem.'" He went on to say that breaking up with a girlfriend or even falling hard for one, or martial problems "can ruin a season." I understand about a marriage, but when I pressed a little further on the girlfriend thing, he said, "A lot of these guys are in their early or mid-20s, but in a lot of ways, they're still high school heads emotionally for off the field stuff." 2) This assumes that Bloom spent as much as he could. If there was no mandate to stay below, then why not roll the dice on Gausman, or even sign the 2 year deal with an opt out with Rodón? Why go over if you're not going big? LOL, yeah, can confirm.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Aug 29, 2022 15:19:47 GMT -5
We're complaining about signing so many injury prone guys because of the results, but in 2021 we arguably had a more injury prone rotation with less depth and it worked out.
I mean, it sort of worked out. The rotation wasn't very good, it just felt like it was better because they had a legitimate major leaguers throwing every game. In actuality the WPA for the 2021 rotation was not significantly better than the 2022 rotation. And I'd be willing to say the 2022 rotation was better designed.
It's also odd to me we keep talking about how terrible the bullpen is this year when they are pretty average. 19th in fWAR (ahead of Toronto), 15th in FIP (ahead of Tampa Bay and Toronto), 12th in WPA. The perception of awfulness is probably there because of the ERA and they've had some very bad outings in leverage (as evident by being 26th in -WPA), but they've pretty much had made up for it by also being very clutch at times (4th in +WPA).
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Post by Guidas on Aug 29, 2022 16:01:45 GMT -5
We're complaining about signing so many injury prone guys because of the results, but in 2021 we arguably had a more injury prone rotation with less depth and it worked out. I mean, it sort of worked out. The rotation wasn't very good, it just felt like it was better because they had a legitimate major leaguers throwing every game. In actuality the WPA for the 2021 rotation was not significantly better than the 2022 rotation. And I'd be willing to say the 2022 rotation was better designed. It's also odd to me we keep talking about how terrible the bullpen is this year when they are pretty average. 19th in fWAR (ahead of Toronto), 15th in FIP (ahead of Tampa Bay and Toronto), 12th in WPA. The perception of awfulness is probably there because of the ERA and they've had some very bad outings in leverage (as evident by being 26th in -WPA), but they've pretty much had made up for it by also being very clutch at times (4th in +WPA). Well, that and all the blown saves. In that category they are 27th out of 30 teams. Also, 22nd in saves overall, which, I know, is a bit of a weak metric, but combined with blown saves at least gives an indication of a leaky pen.
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Post by Coreno on Aug 29, 2022 20:31:59 GMT -5
The thing about "injury prone" pitchers, is that its basically all of them.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Aug 30, 2022 0:42:59 GMT -5
The thing about "injury prone" pitchers, is that its basically all of them. If you look at the list of free agents most years, it is a whose who of recovering Tommy John surgeries and past their prime pitchers. That being said, there are a few veterans who can make the Red Sox deeper and more consistent.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 30, 2022 6:10:28 GMT -5
The thing about "injury prone" pitchers, is that its basically all of them. Well yes but as Chris O'Leary was talking about years ago, the way someone like Chris Sale or Walker Buehler throws is going to make them more susceptible to injury than someone who doesn't use the inverted W. Throwing a baseball at 100 MPH is not natural and it does put torque on your body. Cleaner mechanics often will lead to less injuries long term. Which is why these organizations "tinker" with some pitchers after the draft.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 30, 2022 7:03:47 GMT -5
So this team should simply have spent more money on pitching... I've mentioned enough times why that is a frustrating and conversation-ending argument. But it's particularly frustrating when it comes to the starting rotation, as this team is spending $59 million this year on three starters - and that is exactly the problem! They've combined for 105 IP and less than 1 WAR. Meanwhile, Hill and Wacha, at a cost of $12 million, have combined for 178 IP and 2.6 fWAR. It's just bananas to look at this rotation and think that the "bargain bin diving" on Wacha and Hill has been the problem. Are they injury-prone? Maybe a bit more than average. But they've still combined for more IP than all but one major league pitcher, and both are now healthy. They've also combined for more fWAR than all but 23 qualified starters. (And fWAR is relatively stingy - their bWAR is 4.0.) So these were very effective bargain bin moves, and much more effective, as far as 2022 goes, than any of the big money moves to build the rotation. But okay, they should simply have added another big contract instead (but presumably not, as you and I wanted last offseason, Eduardo Rodriguez). Then should they not have signed Story? Even subtracting Wacha, Hill, and Paxton doesn't quite get them enough to add Gausman (if they could have psychically predicted he'd be the big winner of the free agent class), and of course we have to wait a few years to see whether or not he turns into a Sale or Eovaldi type contract.
1) Hey, we were wrong about ERod - though who knew he'd have marriage problems? I remember interviewing an assistant GM for a profile of him. He'd won a world series (and who would go on to win two more) and I asked him what the variables on performance were. He named the usual suspects-injury, getting out of routines, too much partying-but I was a bit shocked when he said, "But next to injuries, one thing that can screw a guy up more than anything is 'the girlfriend problem.'" He went on to say that breaking up with a girlfriend or even falling hard for one, or martial problems "can ruin a season." I understand about a marriage, but when I pressed a little further on the girlfriend thing, he said, "A lot of these guys are in their early or mid-20s, but in a lot of ways, they're still high school heads emotionally for off the field stuff." 2) This assumes that Bloom spent as much as he could. If there was no mandate to stay below, then why not roll the dice on Gausman, or even sign the 2 year deal with an opt out with Rodón? Why go over if you're not going big? Well that sums up ERod pretty well. It makes you realize that sometimes physical elements aren't the only thing that can sideline players and they go through the same stuff as us. He was solid overall but made 10 starts because someone cheated on someone. So his issues regarding the contract weren't on the field. I'm sure he's going to out perform that deal in this market so if I'm Detroit I'm not worried yet. I also don't understand why athletes marry anyone before the age of 35. Wacha needs to be resigned but the chances of them going with a multi year deal with him is probably slim. He's probably a #4 on a good team and slots right below Eovaldi. Both should get a QO but I'm really thinking the only Sox player to get one will be Xander. I could see the Sox signing Tailion for a year at an inflated contract.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 30, 2022 9:28:50 GMT -5
The Marlins apparently are willing to trade from their rotation depth to add offense, they also said the same thing last offseason but we'll see. I'd hate to trade Casas but if Bloom wants to upgrade the rotation without dropping a big deal on a FA the Sox could match-up with the Marlins. Though I'm not sure if the Marlins would want an unproven guy in Casas or would want a more established guy. If they aren't interested in Casas that would probably just about eliminate the Sox from being a trade partner unless they want to get crazy and send Rafi down there.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Aug 30, 2022 9:43:37 GMT -5
The Marlins apparently are willing to trade from their rotation depth to add offense, they also said the same thing last offseason but we'll see. I'd hate to trade Casas but if Bloom wants to upgrade the rotation without dropping a big deal on a FA the Sox could match-up with the Marlins. Though I'm not sure if the Marlins would want an unproven guy in Casas or would want a more established guy. If they aren't interested in Casas that would probably just about eliminate the Sox from being a trade partner unless they want to get crazy and send Rafi down there. Was doing some research on ballpark numbers with Pablo Lopez, who they're most inclined to trade, not sure Fenway is his friend, unfortunately
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 30, 2022 9:45:56 GMT -5
Would we be willing to go big on degrom for 4 years and have his contract and have it off the books by the time story’s contract is done?
If bogey is gone I’m not sure people are comprehending how much money is really coming off the books. Even more so considering that Sale’s contract is out in 2 years
I’ll say this, if Pivetta is anything but our 5th starter I won’t have much faith in the rotation
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Aug 30, 2022 9:51:34 GMT -5
Would we be willing to go big on degrom for 4 years and have his contract and have it off the books by the time story’s contract is done? If bogey is gone I’m not sure people are comprehending how much money is really coming off the books. Even more so considering that Sale’s contract is out in 2 years I’ll say this, if Pivetta is anything but our 5th starter I won’t have much faith in the rotation Might be a hard sell to ownership to commit over $60mil to 2 starters (sale and degrom) who may spend more time on the IL than on the field. Henry and Co have spent a lot of money on pitchers not to take the field the last 5 years
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 30, 2022 9:58:58 GMT -5
Would we be willing to go big on degrom for 4 years and have his contract and have it off the books by the time story’s contract is done? If bogey is gone I’m not sure people are comprehending how much money is really coming off the books. Even more so considering that Sale’s contract is out in 2 years I’ll say this, if Pivetta is anything but our 5th starter I won’t have much faith in the rotation Might be a hard sell to ownership to commit over $60mil to 2 starters (sale and degrom) who may spend more time on the IL than on the field. Henry and Co have spent a lot of money on pitchers not to take the field the last 5 years I think you may be correct, based off Bloom's past couple offseasons I'm not sure he's the type to throw a big contract at a free agent pitcher. I see a trade being more likely but obviously trades are hard to predict and I'm not even sure what chips they may put on the table.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Aug 30, 2022 10:06:26 GMT -5
I'm all in on Kodai Senga, have been for a few years now. Hopefully he'll take an east coast meeting. Manaea is a guy that could take a 1 yr, get right deal. Maybe talk to the Rockies and see if they want to finall free Kyle Freeland
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Post by manfred on Aug 30, 2022 11:01:58 GMT -5
I am not in on de Grom. He is obviously other-worldly, but I think we’ve entered the breakdown stage of his career. If someone gambles and he stays healthy, Yahtzee. But that is a massive gamble.
At this point, I would love to have a few Pivetta-types. Not workd beaters, but they’ll start 30 times and keep you in more of those games than not.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Aug 31, 2022 16:27:06 GMT -5
I am not in on de Grom. He is obviously other-worldly, but I think we’ve entered the breakdown stage of his career. If someone gambles and he stays healthy, Yahtzee. But that is a massive gamble. At this point, I would love to have a few Pivetta-types. Not workd beaters, but they’ll start 30 times and keep you in more of those games than not. ….Pivetta types that start 30+ games are becoming more rare than a balanced budget. A starter throwing 30+ games is something I can totally agree with you on. I agree with you on a pass for De Grom, but I would like to see Wacha back.
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Post by manfred on Aug 31, 2022 17:29:46 GMT -5
I am not in on de Grom. He is obviously other-worldly, but I think we’ve entered the breakdown stage of his career. If someone gambles and he stays healthy, Yahtzee. But that is a massive gamble. At this point, I would love to have a few Pivetta-types. Not workd beaters, but they’ll start 30 times and keep you in more of those games than not. ….Pivetta types that start 30+ games are becoming more rare than a balanced budget. A starter throwing 30+ games is something I can totally agree with you on. I agree with you on a pass for De Grom, but I would like to see Wacha back. Me too. Wacha might not make 25 starts, but it is worth the risk. If you have Sale and Wacha, add Pivetta and a rotating cast of younger guys, I want a reliable arm added.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Aug 31, 2022 17:49:02 GMT -5
….Pivetta types that start 30+ games are becoming more rare than a balanced budget. A starter throwing 30+ games is something I can totally agree with you on. I agree with you on a pass for De Grom, but I would like to see Wacha back. Me too. Wacha might not make 25 starts, but it is worth the risk. If you have Sale and Wacha, add Pivetta and a rotating cast of younger guys, I want a reliable arm added. me too
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Post by soxinsf on Aug 31, 2022 18:51:47 GMT -5
Me too. Wacha might not make 25 starts, but it is worth the risk. If you have Sale and Wacha, add Pivetta and a rotating cast of younger guys, I want a reliable arm added. me too Sale Wacha A solid addition at 2/3 Pivetta The winner of the ST young guy sweepstakes Adds up to a competitive rotation with a long list of next ups at Worcester.
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Post by jkfer98 on Aug 31, 2022 22:32:14 GMT -5
Wacha has to be a QO candidate, right?
Edit: For context's sake, I think they should do this if the plan is to go over the tax again (which it should be). But I wouldn't do this and pencil in Wacha as your 2 or even your 3. I just dont think you should lose him for nothing after the season he's had. Worse case scenario, he regresses and is your 4 or 5 for a year, and then the money's off the books.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 1, 2022 16:13:46 GMT -5
Listened to an Athletic podcast with Eno Saris - who dives into pitching about as deep as any public analyst out there - and they were talking about McClanahan going down. Saris remarked that Tampa had the highest number of injured players this year, and had been first or second to injuries to their pitchers for the last 5 years.
The Sox had a few bizarro injures this year (hello Christ Sale...X 2). Not saying Bloom's brought this methodology to Boston, but might be worth worth watching to see if they if they consistently climb into the top two in this category as Bloom's player development model hits its stride.
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