SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by jbsox on Sept 1, 2022 17:22:55 GMT -5
Sale Wacha A solid addition at 2/3 Pivetta The winner of the ST young guy sweepstakes Adds up to a competitive rotation with a long list of next ups at Worcester. I wouldn’t completely write off Paxton as well next season. Also to be honest I wouldn’t mind flipping Pivetta.
|
|
|
Post by teddyballgame9 on Sept 1, 2022 17:53:47 GMT -5
Sale Wacha A solid addition at 2/3 Pivetta The winner of the ST young guy sweepstakes Adds up to a competitive rotation with a long list of next ups at Worcester. I wouldn’t completely write off Paxton as well next season. Also to be honest I wouldn’t mind flipping Pivetta. Honestly if we could get value for Piveta and sign a strong bullpen arm/closer, I’d like to give Houck a shot in the rotation and keep Whitlock in the pen. How does everyone feel about Bassitt? If he gets QO but we get picks for Eovaldi and JD isn’t it a wash.
|
|
|
Post by dfwsox on Sept 1, 2022 17:58:13 GMT -5
I wouldn’t completely write off Paxton as well next season. Also to be honest I wouldn’t mind flipping Pivetta. Honestly if we could get value for Piveta and sign a strong bullpen arm/closer, I’d like to give Houck a shot in the rotation and keep Whitlock in the pen. How does everyone feel about Bassitt? If he gets QO but we get picks for Eovaldi and JD isn’t it a wash. I dont see them giving JD a QO. But who knows. I like the idea of Houck getting another chance in the rotation. Both him and Whitlock got something for sure. Just got to find the best fit for both.
|
|
|
Post by jbsox on Sept 1, 2022 18:34:29 GMT -5
I wouldn’t completely write off Paxton as well next season. Also to be honest I wouldn’t mind flipping Pivetta. Honestly if we could get value for Piveta and sign a strong bullpen arm/closer, I’d like to give Houck a shot in the rotation and keep Whitlock in the pen. How does everyone feel about Bassitt? If he gets QO but we get picks for Eovaldi and JD isn’t it a wash. I’d love Bassitt. A workhouse durable veteran pitcher, but I don’t see him leaving the Mets, do you?
|
|
|
Post by xdmo on Sept 1, 2022 23:32:11 GMT -5
Wacha has to be a QO candidate, right? Edit: For context's sake, I think they should do this if the plan is to go over the tax again (which it should be). But I wouldn't do this and pencil in Wacha as your 2 or even your 3. I just dont think you should lose him for nothing after the season he's had. Worse case scenario, he regresses and is your 4 or 5 for a year, and then the money's off the books. Depends who the Sox value more, Eovaldi versus Wacha internally for 2023. It's a close toss up. You offer the QO to either one, they accept it probably. Edit- Maybe you offer QO to both in hopes one of them rejects the QO, but that's a risk.
|
|
|
Post by jkfer98 on Sept 1, 2022 23:43:37 GMT -5
Wacha has to be a QO candidate, right? Edit: For context's sake, I think they should do this if the plan is to go over the tax again (which it should be). But I wouldn't do this and pencil in Wacha as your 2 or even your 3. I just dont think you should lose him for nothing after the season he's had. Worse case scenario, he regresses and is your 4 or 5 for a year, and then the money's off the books. Depends who the Sox value more, Eovaldi versus Wacha internally for 2023. It's a close toss up. You offer the QO to either one, they accept it probably. Edit- Maybe you offer QO to both in hopes one of them rejects the QO, but that's a risk. I think you do both. I'd expect Eovaldi to reject and Wacha to accept. I would also consider moving Pivetta to the bullpen, based on what he's done this year. Would people be comfortable with Bello/Wacha/Whitlock being your 3/4/5 combo (not necessarily in that order, but betting on someone stepping up as a 3), and having Sale and an acquisition (or Eovaldi) as your 1/2? Feel like that might be the most realistic course of action.
|
|
|
Post by seamus on Sept 2, 2022 9:16:17 GMT -5
I'd feel pretty good about getting decent quality 3/4/5 production out of Wacha, Bella, Whitlock, and the jumble of Pivetta, Mata, Murphy, Crawford, Seabold, Winck. For me, I think it comes down to how confident you are in Sale starting 25+ games and how much you're willing to gamble on Bello breaking out to be a #2. I think they've got the depth at this point to be solid at the backend of the rotation, so it's the top where they can make the most meaningful impact. Eovaldi would be okay, but I think gambling on a high AAV deal for DeGrom (3/108?) or something like 4/120 for Rodon would make sense, especially if they don't land one of the big ticket shortstops.
|
|
|
Post by notstarboard on Sept 2, 2022 9:28:27 GMT -5
Depends who the Sox value more, Eovaldi versus Wacha internally for 2023. It's a close toss up. You offer the QO to either one, they accept it probably. Edit- Maybe you offer QO to both in hopes one of them rejects the QO, but that's a risk. I think you do both. I'd expect Eovaldi to reject and Wacha to accept. I would also consider moving Pivetta to the bullpen, based on what he's done this year. Would people be comfortable with Bello/Wacha/Whitlock being your 3/4/5 combo (not necessarily in that order, but betting on someone stepping up as a 3), and having Sale and an acquisition (or Eovaldi) as your 1/2? Feel like that might be the most realistic course of action. I think you definitely don't QO Wacha. He's been good this season, but record and ERA oversell his success. Going by WAR, xERA, and the outlier-y-ness of his HR/9 and HR/FB%, he doesn't look like he'd be worth that money. I've heard he isn't the best represented by advanced stats, but they'd need to be really far off for a QO to make sense. Compare with Rodon, who signed a 1/20 deal before the 2022 season after a 4.9 fWAR season in which he was the best pitcher in the AL (Ray won the CY by volume and normie stats; fight me). He's already put up 4.9 fWAR this season and counting. For comparison, Wacha has 1.5. I realize Rodon has historically had injury concerns and that was a factor in his 1/20 deal. Still, when you're paying QO money, you should be getting a higher caliber pitcher.
As for Eovaldi, I thought it was a lock coming into the year, but now I'm not so sure. He'll be 33 next year, he's had some injury trouble this year (not new for him), and he's been pretty mediocre when not injured. No clue how the chips will fall, but I'm currently more worried about having him for ~19 million than missing out on a fourth round pick if someone would have signed him despite the QO.
Edit: I do agree with that overall plan, though. Sale/FA/Pivetta/Whitlock/Bello (whatever order you'd like) feels like a pretty solid rotation, especially since we have some depth guys behind them, and especially since a rotation like this probably means a good amount of position player investment, and therefore an offense that should kick butt.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Sept 2, 2022 10:39:28 GMT -5
Listened to an Athletic podcast with Eno Saris - who dives into pitching about as deep as any public analyst out there - and they were talking about McClanahan going down. Saris remarked that Tampa had the highest number of injured players this year, and had been first or second to injuries to their pitchers for the last 5 years. The Sox had a few bizarro injures this year (hello Christ Sale...X 2). Not saying Bloom's brought this methodology to Boston, but might be worth worth watching to see if they if they consistently climb into the top two in this category as Bloom's player development model hits its stride. This is interesting. As much as the Rays are credited with pitching innovation, the opener, etc., they also have a lot of these injuries. Is it chance, or is it something to do with their approach?
|
|
|
Post by crossedsabres8 on Sept 2, 2022 10:49:02 GMT -5
A big issue is that Chris Sale makes $30M and you it's really hard to rely on him to be anything. Even if he's healthy next year, will he pitch like an Ace? Like a #2? Innings eater?
You can't really plan a rotation around him, but you can't really leave him out either.
The best thing for the Red Sox would probably be going out and signing a big name like Rodon. They could re-up with Wacha and Paxton and go into the season with
Rodon (or equivalent) Sale Paxton Wacha Whitlock Pivetta Houck Bello
And if there are enough bodies then the 3 guys who don't make the top 5 move to the pen. Pretty much everyone there at least has reliever experience.
But I can understand if Bloom and FSG don't want to spend big money on another 30 year old starter, since they would just finish paying one and are stuck with another.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 2, 2022 12:00:52 GMT -5
Listened to an Athletic podcast with Eno Saris - who dives into pitching about as deep as any public analyst out there - and they were talking about McClanahan going down. Saris remarked that Tampa had the highest number of injured players this year, and had been first or second to injuries to their pitchers for the last 5 years. The Sox had a few bizarro injures this year (hello Christ Sale...X 2). Not saying Bloom's brought this methodology to Boston, but might be worth worth watching to see if they if they consistently climb into the top two in this category as Bloom's player development model hits its stride. What methodology changes do you think would lead to increased injuries once guys are in MLB?
|
|
|
Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 2, 2022 12:46:20 GMT -5
Listened to an Athletic podcast with Eno Saris - who dives into pitching about as deep as any public analyst out there - and they were talking about McClanahan going down. Saris remarked that Tampa had the highest number of injured players this year, and had been first or second to injuries to their pitchers for the last 5 years. The Sox had a few bizarro injures this year (hello Christ Sale...X 2). Not saying Bloom's brought this methodology to Boston, but might be worth worth watching to see if they if they consistently climb into the top two in this category as Bloom's player development model hits its stride. What methodology changes do you think would lead to increased injuries once guys are in MLB? Bloom did mention voodoo...
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 2, 2022 13:11:26 GMT -5
A big issue is that Chris Sale makes $30M and you it's really hard to rely on him to be anything. Even if he's healthy next year, will he pitch like an Ace? Like a #2? Innings eater? You can't really plan a rotation around him, but you can't really leave him out either. The best thing for the Red Sox would probably be going out and signing a big name like Rodon. They could re-up with Wacha and Paxton and go into the season with Rodon (or equivalent) Sale Paxton Wacha Whitlock Pivetta Houck Bello And if there are enough bodies then the 3 guys who don't make the top 5 move to the pen. Pretty much everyone there at least has reliever experience. But I can understand if Bloom and FSG don't want to spend big money on another 30 year old starter, since they would just finish paying one and are stuck with another. That would be amazing starting pitching depth/quality, but if we assume Rodon+Wacha is ~40mil, and the Red Sox keep Xander for ~25mil, then that would leave them with only ~20mil to spend on a starting corner OFer, a starting CFer and any additional picks (relievers, catcher, etc.) - assuming they keep the same payroll and don't extend Devers (remove 10 mil each for getting under the tax or applying a Devers extension onto 2023 - which they don't have to do). Unless they make a big trade for a cheap starting OFer, I don't see how they pull it off. I would much rather they let Wacha go and use the money toward a starting OFer (like Neemo). The immense depth the Sox have built up in AAA should allow them to do this. Also, Hill coming back at ~3mil to piggyback with Houck would be a solid depth move. For Sale, based on his past performances and one good start, I expect we will get: an ace performance * 5 innings per start * X starts (where X is a d16 + d20 throw)
|
|
|
Post by seamus on Sept 2, 2022 13:19:25 GMT -5
I now desperately want to incorporate a d16 into my Saturday night D&D session.
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 6, 2022 16:00:08 GMT -5
Given how horrible the pitching has been, and it’s contributing factor to this years demise I feel this thread isn’t getting enough love and needs a bump.
I have no ideal how I feel about this years class. It’s very interesting, but comes with questions marks. You have guys like scherzer and Verlander who are just absolute studs, but at 38 and 40 could literally be slamming into a wall next year. If you want to go a few years younger with equal talent I believe Kershaw is a FA too but….he hasn’t been the works horse he once was and poses injury risk, guys like Syndergaard will also be out there He isn’t the guy he once was but at only 30 years old one wonders if he could be the 2022 version of Wacha on steroids (metaphorically speaking)
Then you have guys who will be headlining the class, which I’d you want younger, proven, healthier talent is a a very small class. A lot of teams will be bidding on Degrom and he’s been stated saying he wants to become the first 50 million dollar player.
Honestly, if the Sox are ok going over the luxury tax, I’m fine with QOs to Eovaldi and Wacha. With a cleaner bill of health next years rotation could be much better or just as disappointing. I’d imagine the likes of guys like Bello might be further along and more ready to step up and contribute.
Still, I would t be upset to see a trade made for a cost controlled front line starter. What? Suggest giving up prospects in a prospect forum? BLASPHEMY I know. Still, one wonders if Florida could be convinced into giving up an arm for the right price. Can’t count on Sale, but if Sale is healthy and pitches great…awesome, you just won the lottery.
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 6, 2022 16:01:19 GMT -5
I blame all typos on fat thumbs. Too lazy to edit. Sorryz
|
|
|
Post by jbsox on Sept 7, 2022 3:44:20 GMT -5
A big issue is that Chris Sale makes $30M and you it's really hard to rely on him to be anything. Even if he's healthy next year, will he pitch like an Ace? Like a #2? Innings eater? You can't really plan a rotation around him, but you can't really leave him out either. The best thing for the Red Sox would probably be going out and signing a big name like Rodon. They could re-up with Wacha and Paxton and go into the season with Rodon (or equivalent) Sale Paxton Wacha Whitlock Pivetta Houck Bello And if there are enough bodies then the 3 guys who don't make the top 5 move to the pen. Pretty much everyone there at least has reliever experience. But I can understand if Bloom and FSG don't want to spend big money on another 30 year old starter, since they would just finish paying one and are stuck with another. That would be amazing starting pitching depth/quality, but if we assume Rodon+Wacha is ~40mil, and the Red Sox keep Xander for ~25mil, then that would leave them with only ~20mil to spend on a starting corner OFer, a starting CFer and any additional picks (relievers, catcher, etc.) - assuming they keep the same payroll and don't extend Devers (remove 10 mil each for getting under the tax or applying a Devers extension onto 2023 - which they don't have to do). Unless they make a big trade for a cheap starting OFer, I don't see how they pull it off. I would much rather they let Wacha go and use the money toward a starting OFer (like Neemo). The immense depth the Sox have built up in AAA should allow them to do this. Also, Hill coming back at ~3mil to piggyback with Houck would be a solid depth move. For Sale, based on his past performances and one good start, I expect we will get: an ace performance * 5 innings per start * X starts (where X is a d16 + d20 throw) I like this idea a lot with a couple tweaks. Pencil in Bello as your 5th starter, and possibly dangle Pivetta and see what you can get for a cheap solid corner OF in a trade. Do we think it’s time to move on from Eovaldi? I also wouldn’t mind Pham back. Solidifying the top of the rotation getting Rondon with what you have can go a long way for your team. Keep Whitlock and Houck as relievers, and you possibly save money in the bullpen. Maybe roll the dice with a McGuire/Wong combo to save money at catcher.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,962
|
Post by jimoh on Sept 7, 2022 8:18:44 GMT -5
I blame all typos on fat thumbs. Too lazy to edit. Sorryz The Roman satirist Lucilius once wrote "I'm not spending much time on this; why should you?"
|
|
|
Post by jkfer98 on Sept 7, 2022 9:01:13 GMT -5
I think you do both. I'd expect Eovaldi to reject and Wacha to accept. I would also consider moving Pivetta to the bullpen, based on what he's done this year. Would people be comfortable with Bello/Wacha/Whitlock being your 3/4/5 combo (not necessarily in that order, but betting on someone stepping up as a 3), and having Sale and an acquisition (or Eovaldi) as your 1/2? Feel like that might be the most realistic course of action. I think you definitely don't QO Wacha. He's been good this season, but record and ERA oversell his success. Going by WAR, xERA, and the outlier-y-ness of his HR/9 and HR/FB%, he doesn't look like he'd be worth that money. I've heard he isn't the best represented by advanced stats, but they'd need to be really far off for a QO to make sense. Compare with Rodon, who signed a 1/20 deal before the 2022 season after a 4.9 fWAR season in which he was the best pitcher in the AL (Ray won the CY by volume and normie stats; fight me). He's already put up 4.9 fWAR this season and counting. For comparison, Wacha has 1.5. I realize Rodon has historically had injury concerns and that was a factor in his 1/20 deal. Still, when you're paying QO money, you should be getting a higher caliber pitcher. I get it that Wacha's numbers don't look as great under the hood, but I think that's more of a reason to give him the QO than not. I'd rather them overpay for him on a 1 year deal (especially if they're going over the tax again next year, which at this point I'm going to assume) than lock him in for multiple years, have him regress, and then be stuck with that contract the next season(s). You're basically giving him another "prove it" deal - and if he can replicate his success next year, I wouldn't be opposed to giving him a multi-year contract after that. And even if he doesn't accept, I think that puts the Red Sox in a better position because you'll either get a pick, or you'll reduce the competition in signing him and can probably get a more team-friendly multi-year deal. I have a hard time believing many teams would be willing to give up a first round pick for Wacha.
|
|
|
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Sept 7, 2022 10:29:47 GMT -5
I think you definitely don't QO Wacha. He's been good this season, but record and ERA oversell his success. Going by WAR, xERA, and the outlier-y-ness of his HR/9 and HR/FB%, he doesn't look like he'd be worth that money. I've heard he isn't the best represented by advanced stats, but they'd need to be really far off for a QO to make sense. Compare with Rodon, who signed a 1/20 deal before the 2022 season after a 4.9 fWAR season in which he was the best pitcher in the AL (Ray won the CY by volume and normie stats; fight me). He's already put up 4.9 fWAR this season and counting. For comparison, Wacha has 1.5. I realize Rodon has historically had injury concerns and that was a factor in his 1/20 deal. Still, when you're paying QO money, you should be getting a higher caliber pitcher. I get it that Wacha's numbers don't look as great under the hood, but I think that's more of a reason to give him the QO than not. I'd rather them overpay for him on a 1 year deal (especially if they're going over the tax again next year, which at this point I'm going to assume) than lock him in for multiple years, have him regress, and then be stuck with that contract the next season(s). You're basically giving him another "prove it" deal - and if he can replicate his success next year, I wouldn't be opposed to giving him a multi-year contract after that. And even if he doesn't accept, I think that puts the Red Sox in a better position because you'll either get a pick, or you'll reduce the competition in signing him and can probably get a more team-friendly multi-year deal. I have a hard time believing many teams would be willing to give up a first round pick for Wacha. With Wachas injury history I'd honestly give him the QO. If someone wants to give him 3/42 then he probably takes that due to that injury history.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxpride34 on Sept 7, 2022 10:30:23 GMT -5
If I'm bloom I would not bring back wacha, eovaldi or paxton. Paxton there is no way that option should be picked up. He'll be 34 and coming off another injury plus still needing to build up innings after missing time due to TJ. Evoaldi is far too injury prone and wacha I think will get overpaid based on this season but has been very inconsistent for years now. He could just as easily revert to a 4.5-5 era pitcher next season. The only FA pitcher I'd like to see them take a legit run at is Edwin Diaz. Any starters that are brought in should come via trade. This team really needs a top of the rotation guy and I'd target someone like Zach Gallen. I'd also look at miami and see what it would take to get a pablo lopez or maybe even sandy alcantara. Another option could be Aaron Nola.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Sept 7, 2022 10:43:50 GMT -5
If I'm bloom I would not bring back wacha, eovaldi or paxton. Paxton there is no way that option should be picked up. He'll be 34 and coming off another injury plus still needing to build up innings after missing time due to TJ. Evoaldi is far too injury prone and wacha I think will get overpaid based on this season but has been very inconsistent for years now. He could just as easily revert to a 4.5-5 era pitcher next season. The only FA pitcher I'd like to see them take a legit run at is Edwin Diaz. Any starters that are brought in should come via trade. This team really needs a top of the rotation guy and I'd target someone like Zach Gallen. I'd also look at miami and see what it would take to get a pablo lopez or maybe even sandy alcantara. Another option could be Aaron Nola. While your plan of "simply get another team's ace and make them play for the Red Sox" sounds nice on the face of it, I think you need to specify which two of Mayer, Casas, Bello, and Yorke you're willing to give up (as a start) to make it happen.
|
|
|
Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 7, 2022 10:51:38 GMT -5
If I'm bloom I would not bring back wacha, eovaldi or paxton. Paxton there is no way that option should be picked up. He'll be 34 and coming off another injury plus still needing to build up innings after missing time due to TJ. Evoaldi is far too injury prone and wacha I think will get overpaid based on this season but has been very inconsistent for years now. He could just as easily revert to a 4.5-5 era pitcher next season. The only FA pitcher I'd like to see them take a legit run at is Edwin Diaz. Any starters that are brought in should come via trade. This team really needs a top of the rotation guy and I'd target someone like Zach Gallen. I'd also look at miami and see what it would take to get a pablo lopez or maybe even sandy alcantara. Another option could be Aaron Nola. While your plan of "simply get another team's ace and make them play for the Red Sox" sounds nice on the face of it, I think you need to specify which two of Mayer, Casas, Bello, and Yorke you're willing to give up (as a start) to make it happen. Starting to get the sense Bleis is a mandatory ask as well from the other team. Just as an exercise, to match up of baseballtradevalues for Alcantra, it'd take Mayer, Bello, Yorke, and Bleis...
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 5,279
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Sept 7, 2022 11:08:35 GMT -5
While your plan of "simply get another team's ace and make them play for the Red Sox" sounds nice on the face of it, I think you need to specify which two of Mayer, Casas, Bello, and Yorke you're willing to give up (as a start) to make it happen. Starting to get the sense Bleis is a mandatory ask as well from the other team. Just as an exercise, to match up of baseballtradevalues for Alcantra, it'd take Mayer, Bello, Yorke, and Bleis... And that is precisely why I don't see Bloom going out and making a big time trade this offseason, a trade of decent magnitude would put a big dent in the farm which is currently around the 12th or so in the league. So while it's obviously not barren of talent, it's still a pretty long way from being one of the top 5 that Bloom and Co. obviously want to be since that is how you become perennial contenders. It's a tedious process but it kind of all starts with the farm up. Making a substantial trade that costs one or two of those guys mentioned probably drops them back down to the 20 range. It just doesn't seem likely to me that Bloom is ready to pull the trigger on that, nor do I think he should. Maybe if the team was one solid piece away but I would say as we've seen this year they aren't.
|
|
|
Post by seamus on Sept 7, 2022 11:09:09 GMT -5
I'm kinda disappointed that Zac Gallen has decided to have an Orel Hershiser streak and that Arizona has decided to be, like, interesting, because otherwise Gallen might have been a plausible target without selling everything on the farm. As it is, I think the best chance for a trade is probably going back to their pals in Milwaukee's front office and seeing if they're interested in selling off more arbitration eligible pitching. Woodruff might be gettable for something like Yorke/Houck/Coffey.
|
|
|