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Post by bcsox on Sept 8, 2022 16:11:18 GMT -5
As an avid Dalbec follower, but also someone who is lazy finding stats, it seemed that Dalbec had way too many at bats vs righties this year. Now some of that is forced because they didn’t have a better option at first a lot of the time, and certainly because the team faces many more RHP starters but does anyone have total at bats this year for him vs. RHP and the same vs LHP?
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Post by incandenza on Sept 8, 2022 16:42:19 GMT -5
As an avid Dalbec follower, but also someone who is lazy finding stats, it seemed that Dalbec had way too many at bats vs righties this year. Now some of that is forced because they didn’t have a better option at first a lot of the time, and certainly because the team faces many more RHP starters but does anyone have total at bats this year for him vs. RHP and the same vs LHP? Here's his splits page at fangraphs:
He's gotten 108 PAs against lefties and 232 against righties.
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Post by xdmo on Sept 8, 2022 22:07:22 GMT -5
I'd like to see Schwarber back at DH next season if the Phillies just give him up for minimal return. They have too many DH's right now and I could see the Phillies making Schwarber available. This lineup doesn't hit for enough power and doesn't put up long/tough enough at bats right now.
Schwarber is on a down year average wise, but he's still having a 118 wRC+ season with his power.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 8, 2022 22:14:44 GMT -5
I'd like to see Schwarber back at DH next season if the Phillies just give him up for minimal return. This lineup doesn't hit for enough power and doesn't put up long/tough enough at bats right now. I'm going to need a prospect or 2 coming back if I'm eating $60mil for a guy that can't field, and is going to rewrite the record book each season with strikeouts. His ballpark homerun expectancy drops at Fenway as well
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Post by xdmo on Sept 8, 2022 22:21:34 GMT -5
I'd like to see Schwarber back at DH next season if the Phillies just give him up for minimal return. This lineup doesn't hit for enough power and doesn't put up long/tough enough at bats right now. I'm going to need a prospect or 2 coming back if I'm eating $60mil for a guy that can't field, and is going to rewrite the record book each season with strikeouts. His ballpark homerun expectancy drops at Fenway as well I'd be okay with that, too. Schwarber might strike out a lot, but he sees a ton of pitches and puts the pressure on the pitcher.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 9, 2022 2:01:12 GMT -5
On Dalbec: despite this being a subpar season for him, he's still managed a 119 wRC+ against lefties, and 129 for his career. Why not just run with a Dalbec/Casas platoon at 1B to start the season? Trade Hosmer for either a marginal prospect or include a prospect to get back something useful for the major league roster. If Dalbec can rebound somewhat next year then they could trade him next offseason when his value might be a bit higher. And if by some chance he returns to his late-2021 form they can get him ABs at DH. It's not ideal to use a roster spot on the short end of a 1B platoon, but his ability to back up Devers at 3B mitigates that somewhat, and all the more so if he can fill in at corner OF. You're really trying to make me look up how Dalbec has hit LHP after a day off, aren't you?
If there's not a significant penalty from that -- if in fact he can hit lefties coming off the bench -- than this is an obvious choice for the reasons you state.
And I just figured out how I can use Stacast to very easily get his splits vs. LHP by days off.
Mind blown.
122 career PA vs. LHP, after a personal day off:
.450 wOBA, .418 xwOBA
203 career PA vs. LHP after playing the day before:
.312 wOBA, .324 xwOBA.
He has no split at all vs. RHP:
.301 / .306 (157 PA) after day off
.296 / .306 (402 PA) after playing
I can't explain this at all (yet) and it may even be noise, but my statement that there was no reason to believe he could hit coming off the bench was plainly wrong. He's an easy keeper, with an eye to his having a good enough year in his bench role to be sought after as an everyday 3B.
That catch here is that none of Devers, Casas, Verdugo, or Nimmo (I've already ordered the jersey) are guys you would platoon. But you can start Dalbec and/or Refsynder fairly regularly against LHP and then have whoever is sitting is available to hit for either their guy or the catcher. That will mess with opposing bullpen strategies, and the sitting guys will often still get 2 PA.
BTW, vs. RHP this year, Dalbec was a 53% regular; vs. LHP he was 74%. (Pct of all team PA he had, x 9).
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Post by xdmo on Sept 9, 2022 13:52:22 GMT -5
Would anyone be scared to pencil in Duran for LF and making Verdugo available for trade talks?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 9, 2022 14:37:32 GMT -5
Would anyone be scared to pencil in Duran for LF and making Verdugo available for trade talks? What has Duran done that makes you think he should be penciled into an MLB starting role, even if it's in LF and not CF?
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Post by xdmo on Sept 9, 2022 14:51:20 GMT -5
Would anyone be scared to pencil in Duran for LF and making Verdugo available for trade talks? What has Duran done that makes you think he should be penciled into an MLB starting role, even if it's in LF and not CF? Not sure, but the dropoff from Verdugo to Duran might not be that much of a margin for league minimum dollars. Verdugo is having a unlucky year and has a OPS hovering around .740 He had a OPS around .777 in 2021. Maybe the answer is neither. Verdugo will cost around 6-7 million I'm guessing in 2023 in second year of arbitration. He's starting to get expensive for a league average hitting LF. Maybe the new shift rule will help Verdugo be a .800 OPS LF. Be a little better than what he's given the Sox production wise right now.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 10, 2022 13:39:38 GMT -5
What has Duran done that makes you think he should be penciled into an MLB starting role, even if it's in LF and not CF? Not sure, but the dropoff from Verdugo to Duran might not be that much of a margin for league minimum dollars. Verdugo is having a unlucky year and has a OPS hovering around .740 He had a OPS around .777 in 2021. Maybe the answer is neither. Verdugo will cost around 6-7 million I'm guessing in 2023 in second year of arbitration. He's starting to get expensive for a league average hitting LF. Maybe the new shift rule will help Verdugo be a .800 OPS LF. Be a little better than what he's given the Sox production wise right now. What?
The league average LF has a .310 / .311 xw/xOBA. The 45th best outfielder (out of 86 with 250+ PA) has a .311 xwOBA.
Verdugo is .333 / .324, the former ranking 24th and hence making him a first-division starter.
But he is also 10th in MLB for Win Probability Added among outfielders since we acquired him, ranking 3rd in MLB in FanGraph's "Clutch" approximation.
He's actually been worth $25M this year, $12M of that being his "clutch" hitting. And before you say "that's not predictive" ... last year his "clutch" hitting added $13M of value.
I'm putting "clutch" in "quotes" because a lot of what is measured as such is his hitting badly when leading or trailing by 4 or more runs, and other low-leverage situations.
However, in a Sox uni, he's had 26 PA with Leverage Index 4.0 or better. Excluding 2 IBB, he's hit .450 / .458 / .600.
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Post by GyIantosca on Sept 10, 2022 16:38:56 GMT -5
I believe no matter how good Bloom like the pitching in AAA. He needs to grab one high end starter. There's Noah Sydergaard. I would like to kick the tires on trying to trade for Nola. Something like one of these guys. Bloom has to get it done.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 10, 2022 17:20:20 GMT -5
Would anybody take a chance on Heaney as a free agent?
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 10, 2022 17:23:40 GMT -5
I believe no matter how good Bloom like the pitching in AAA. He needs to grab one high end starter. There's Noah Sydergaard. I would like to kick the tires on trying to trade for Nola. Something like one of these guys. Bloom has to get it done. I dont disagree that a front end starter is needed but that's not Syndergaard anymore. I'd rather bring wacha back than bring in Syndergaard. He's a name at this point, he's not close to the same guy anymore. He's also obviously Injury prone. I hope Bloom stays away from Syndergaard.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 10, 2022 18:11:46 GMT -5
I believe no matter how good Bloom like the pitching in AAA. He needs to grab one high end starter. There's Noah Sydergaard. I would like to kick the tires on trying to trade for Nola. Something like one of these guys. Bloom has to get it done. I dont disagree that a front end starter is needed but that's not Syndergaard anymore. I'd rather bring wacha back than bring in Syndergaard. He's a name at this point, he's not close to the same guy anymore. He's also obviously Injury prone. I hope Bloom stays away from Syndergaard. His 2022 whiff rate is honestly shocking. The 5mph loss on both his sinker and 4seam has (understandably) turned him into a completely different player.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 10, 2022 18:30:58 GMT -5
I dont disagree that a front end starter is needed but that's not Syndergaard anymore. I'd rather bring wacha back than bring in Syndergaard. He's a name at this point, he's not close to the same guy anymore. He's also obviously Injury prone. I hope Bloom stays away from Syndergaard. His 2022 whiff rate is honestly shocking. The 5mph loss on both his sinker and 4seam has (understandably) turned him into a completely different player. Yea hes not a guy I'd want for the Sox unless it was a 1-2 year deal. I think someone gives him 3+. Just not worth the risk with diminished stuff and big injury risk. He won't come cheap.
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Post by greenmonster on Sept 11, 2022 7:34:37 GMT -5
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 11, 2022 8:14:51 GMT -5
DD could be interested, but it's not going to be easy to fit in Xander after he ballooned the payroll committing so many dollars and years to Schwarber and Castellanos (for a combined total fWAR of 1.0 to date, ouch)
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Sept 11, 2022 8:48:53 GMT -5
DD could be interested, but it's not going to be easy to fit in Xander after he ballooned the payroll committing so many dollars and years to Schwarber and Castellanos (for a combined total fWAR of 1.0 to date, ouch) That's only an issue for whoever is their GM in 2025. They're in their competitive window and have Painter and Abel likely ready next summer.
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Post by patford on Sept 11, 2022 8:51:10 GMT -5
As an avid Dalbec follower, but also someone who is lazy finding stats, it seemed that Dalbec had way too many at bats vs righties this year. Now some of that is forced because they didn’t have a better option at first a lot of the time, and certainly because the team faces many more RHP starters but does anyone have total at bats this year for him vs. RHP and the same vs LHP? My opinion is Dalbec needs regular at bats. If I recall there are statistics that back that up. Yes he is going to have large splits but if he's in a lineup almost everyday I really think he would hit in the .200-.230 range with walks and lots of HR. He would be something like Schwarber but with much better defensive ability and versatility. If he could learn and adapt to the position the best opening for him would be RF. He's actually pretty fast and has an absolute cannon. It shouldn't take very long to see if he can play the position. As we saw with Duran a big part of OF defense is instinct, the part a player can't learn. Run him out there every day for the rest of the year in AAA and see if he looks lost or surprisingly good.
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Post by alan on Sept 11, 2022 9:09:05 GMT -5
My big target this free agency is Brandon Nimmo. Walk a lot, hits for average, and plays good defense. Dugie in left, Kiké in center, Nimmo in right is a pretty damn good OF if you ask me. Shop Duran and Dalbec around, they're now our version Miguel Andujar and Clint Frazier
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Post by alan on Sept 11, 2022 9:12:46 GMT -5
As an avid Dalbec follower, but also someone who is lazy finding stats, it seemed that Dalbec had way too many at bats vs righties this year. Now some of that is forced because they didn’t have a better option at first a lot of the time, and certainly because the team faces many more RHP starters but does anyone have total at bats this year for him vs. RHP and the same vs LHP? My opinion is Dalbec needs regular at bats. If I recall there are statistics that back that up. Yes he is going to have large splits but if he's in a lineup almost everyday I really think he would hit in the .200-.230 range with walks and lots of HR. He would be something like Schwarber but with much better defensive ability and versatility. If he could learn and adapt to the position the best opening for him would be RF. He's actually pretty fast and has an absolute cannon. It shouldn't take very long to see if he can play the position. As we saw with Duran a big part of OF defense is instinct, the part a player can't learn. Run him out there every day for the rest of the year in AAA and see if he looks lost or surprisingly good. He literally got regular at bats this year, and sucked. He was amazing in the second half last year, but his power has just vanished this year (20%+ Barrel% last year, just 11.8% this year). He's probably going to be a very good platoon bat in the majors, and like Chris and Ian said on the new pod, there's a market for that, like Darin Ruf with the Giants (now Mets) before 2022
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 11, 2022 10:29:28 GMT -5
The penalty for signing a QO free agent this year for us will be pick ~#53 (second round), pick ~#140 (either 5th round pick or a QO comp pick we would have got), the ~$2 million in slot money that goes with those picks, and $1 million in international bonus money
Steeper than in years past
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 11, 2022 13:03:59 GMT -5
The penalty for signing a QO free agent this year for us will be pick ~#53 (second round), pick ~#140 (either 5th round pick or a QO comp pick we would have got), the ~$2 million in slot money that goes with those picks, and $1 million in international bonus money Steeper than in years past ….best alternative…..re-sign Bogaerts and Wacha, I am not as keen on Eovaldi, but he too would solve the need for pitching without needing to sign a QO from another team.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Sept 11, 2022 18:34:37 GMT -5
I wonder if Bryan Reynolds would be available if Bloom were to inquire in the offseason. He was ranked as the 37th most valuable trade piece in baseball at the deadline this year by Fangraphs because his contract is so team friendly, but he will be arbitration eligible after next season and I doubt the Pirates will be competing in that division next year. If Bloom could pry him away, it would solve an enormous hole in our outfield. An outfield of Verdugo-Kiké-Reynolds would be amazing.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 12, 2022 10:51:21 GMT -5
Enmanuel Valdez is a minor league FA. If the Red Sox put him on the 40-man does that eliminate the possibility he can sign with another team?
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