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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 6, 2022 18:17:23 GMT -5
What is everyone predicting/wanting for the bullpen to start next season?
Here's my best stab:
Closer - Garrett Whitlock (R) Setup - John Schreiber (R) Setup - Andrew Chafin (L) - FA pickup Mid-reliever - Matt Barnes (R) Mid-reliever - Josh Taylor (L) Mid-reliever - Tyler Danish (R) - out of options Mid-reliever - Ryan Brasier (R) - competing for last spot with the young guys Swing - Rich Hill (L) - re-signed
Either Houck or Whitlock should head to the rotation. At the moment I have Whitlock closing because he has been a better relief pitcher than Houck. Houck would be the 5th starter with Hill as a piggy-back - signed at 3-5mil for 1 year.
Even with Taylor coming back, and possibly re-signing Hill, the team needs another lefty. Chafin has been very good over the past two years (1.4 & 1.5 fWAR) and has a player option for 6.5mil. I'm assuming he will decline the option to sign for ~16mil over 2 years.
Danish has been 'ok' this year and get's a roster spot due to the lack of options. Brasier currently has the last roster spot, but I wouldn't be surprised if one of the younger guys takes the spot - there are many good candidates, but nobody seems to stand out yet.
I wouldn't mind seeing Strahm back either - but with Hill, Chafin and Taylor, the need for a 4th lefty isn't high.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 6, 2022 20:32:41 GMT -5
What is everyone predicting/wanting for the bullpen to start next season? Here's my best stab: Closer - Garrett Whitlock (R) Setup - John Schreiber (R) Setup - Andrew Chafin (L) - FA pickup Mid-reliever - Matt Barnes (R) Mid-reliever - Josh Taylor (L) Mid-reliever - Tyler Danish (R) - out of options Mid-reliever - Ryan Brasier (R) - competing for last spot with the young guys Swing - Rich Hill (L) - re-signed Either Houck or Whitlock should head to the rotation. At the moment I have Whitlock closing because he has been a better relief pitcher than Houck. Houck would be the 5th starter with Hill as a piggy-back - signed at 3-5mil for 1 year. Even with Taylor coming back, and possibly re-signing Hill, the team needs another lefty. Chafin has been very good over the past two years (1.4 & 1.5 fWAR) and has a player option for 6.5mil. I'm assuming he will decline the option to sign for ~16mil over 2 years. Danish has been 'ok' this year and get's a roster spot due to the lack of options. Brasier currently has the last roster spot, but I wouldn't be surprised if one of the younger guys takes the spot - there are many good candidates, but nobody seems to stand out yet. I wouldn't mind seeing Strahm back either - but with Hill, Chafin and Taylor, the need for a 4th lefty isn't high. Let's see if they want to leave Chafin behind when going to Toronto. Would be a pretty big piece to lose
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 6, 2022 20:40:57 GMT -5
I would like to see no signs of Brasier, Danish, Taylor, or Barnes in our pen.
My view - a complete overhaul.
I know I won't get my wish completely - but we have way too many non-competitive arms.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 6, 2022 21:12:59 GMT -5
What is everyone predicting/wanting for the bullpen to start next season? Here's my best stab: Closer - Garrett Whitlock (R) Setup - John Schreiber (R) Setup - Andrew Chafin (L) - FA pickup Mid-reliever - Matt Barnes (R) Mid-reliever - Josh Taylor (L) Mid-reliever - Tyler Danish (R) - out of options Mid-reliever - Ryan Brasier (R) - competing for last spot with the young guys Swing - Rich Hill (L) - re-signed Either Houck or Whitlock should head to the rotation. At the moment I have Whitlock closing because he has been a better relief pitcher than Houck. Houck would be the 5th starter with Hill as a piggy-back - signed at 3-5mil for 1 year. Even with Taylor coming back, and possibly re-signing Hill, the team needs another lefty. Chafin has been very good over the past two years (1.4 & 1.5 fWAR) and has a player option for 6.5mil. I'm assuming he will decline the option to sign for ~16mil over 2 years. Danish has been 'ok' this year and get's a roster spot due to the lack of options. Brasier currently has the last roster spot, but I wouldn't be surprised if one of the younger guys takes the spot - there are many good candidates, but nobody seems to stand out yet. I wouldn't mind seeing Strahm back either - but with Hill, Chafin and Taylor, the need for a 4th lefty isn't high. My pitching staff looks like this: Starters RH Michael Wacha LH Chris Sale RH Nick Pivetta RH Brayan Bello RH Tanner Houck RH/LH FA Long Roles RH Kutter Crawford RH Josh Winckowski Bullpen RH Garrett Whitlock RH John Schreiber RH FA RH Matt Barnes RH Frank German RH Zack Kelly LH FA (would love to re-sign Strahm) LH Taylor (if healthy - huge if) I think Wacha gets re-signed, Houck rejoins the rotation, Bello will be a solid rotation add, Winck and Crawford are solid enough to pitch 2 to 3 innings in valuable relief, and the bullpen adds a FA or two.
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Post by bcsox on Sept 6, 2022 21:30:50 GMT -5
Barnes isn’t going away with the money he is making.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 6, 2022 21:58:08 GMT -5
What is everyone predicting/wanting for the bullpen to start next season? Here's my best stab: Closer - Garrett Whitlock (R) Setup - John Schreiber (R) Setup - Andrew Chafin (L) - FA pickup Mid-reliever - Matt Barnes (R) Mid-reliever - Josh Taylor (L) Mid-reliever - Tyler Danish (R) - out of options Mid-reliever - Ryan Brasier (R) - competing for last spot with the young guys Swing - Rich Hill (L) - re-signed Either Houck or Whitlock should head to the rotation. At the moment I have Whitlock closing because he has been a better relief pitcher than Houck. Houck would be the 5th starter with Hill as a piggy-back - signed at 3-5mil for 1 year. Even with Taylor coming back, and possibly re-signing Hill, the team needs another lefty. Chafin has been very good over the past two years (1.4 & 1.5 fWAR) and has a player option for 6.5mil. I'm assuming he will decline the option to sign for ~16mil over 2 years. Danish has been 'ok' this year and get's a roster spot due to the lack of options. Brasier currently has the last roster spot, but I wouldn't be surprised if one of the younger guys takes the spot - there are many good candidates, but nobody seems to stand out yet. I wouldn't mind seeing Strahm back either - but with Hill, Chafin and Taylor, the need for a 4th lefty isn't high. My pitching staff looks like this: Starters RH Michael Wacha LH Chris Sale RH Nick Pivetta RH Brayan Bello RH Tanner Houck RH/LH FA Long Roles RH Kutter Crawford RH Josh Winckowski Bullpen RH Garrett Whitlock RH John Schreiber RH FA RH Matt Barnes RH Frank German RH Zack Kelly LH FA (would love to re-sign Strahm) LH Taylor (if healthy - huge if) I think Wacha gets re-signed, Houck rejoins the rotation, Bello will be a solid rotation add, Winck and Crawford are solid enough to pitch 2 to 3 innings in valuable relief, and the bullpen adds a FA or two. Strahm may be a long shot, he announced he planned on transitioning into a starter in 2023
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 6, 2022 22:01:30 GMT -5
Let's see if they want to leave Chafin behind when going to Toronto. Would be a pretty big piece to lose Oi - didn't know that. Yeah, probably makes him a less-ideal choice.
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Post by seamus on Sept 7, 2022 9:18:12 GMT -5
I think Whitlock is far more likely to transition to the rotation than Houck just based on their pitch arsenals. Houck needs the "play up" boost from being in the bullpen in a way that Whitlock doesn't.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Sept 7, 2022 9:31:57 GMT -5
I think Whitlock is far more likely to transition to the rotation than Houck just based on their pitch arsenals. Houck needs the "play up" boost from being in the bullpen in a way that Whitlock doesn't. If we can make a reasonable bullpen without Whitlock, I agree. I just don't think Houck has shown enough as a starter. I'd hope we could find an effective multi-inning fireman among Crawford, Houck and Winckowski. Bello is the only no-doubt starter imho.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Sept 7, 2022 9:46:21 GMT -5
I would like to see no signs of Brasier, Danish, Taylor, or Barnes in our pen. My view - a complete overhaul. I know I won't get my wish completely - but we have way too many non-competitive arms. This organization could legitimately DFA the entire bullpen full of bums outside of Whitlock and Houck and no one would lose any sleep over it. Give German a chance this month and see if he can be a player. Call up Murphy and Seabold and see what they can do. If not then ship them out. Move Winckowski to the pen full time. Beg someone to take Barnes.
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Post by seamus on Sept 7, 2022 10:18:46 GMT -5
Barnes still shows flashes and actually had a pretty decent August. Maybe you can trade him away to somebody who thinks they can fix him if you're willing to eat the money and/or attach a prospect, but I think it's more likely that they give him another chance to sort it out as a low-leverage arm. With bullpen guys, you're usually chasing upside potential and he's still got that.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 7, 2022 10:26:53 GMT -5
I would like to see no signs of Brasier, Danish, Taylor, or Barnes in our pen. My view - a complete overhaul. I know I won't get my wish completely - but we have way too many non-competitive arms. This organization could legitimately DFA the entire bullpen full of bums outside of Whitlock and Houck and no one would lose any sleep over it. Give German a chance this month and see if he can be a player. Call up Murphy and Seabold and see what they can do. If not then ship them out. Move Winckowski to the pen full time. Beg someone to take Barnes. They talked about why you we saw Bazardo over German in he last podcast, it makes sense. I know people like to dream of the future in a lost season, but also why burn a 40 man spot and lose a guy when you don't need to either. There's a strong case for that in a lost season as well.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 7, 2022 10:28:24 GMT -5
Although, there would be something insanely satisfying if German/Whitlock made one the best 8th/9th inning combination in baseball in 2023.
FY MFY.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 7, 2022 10:36:44 GMT -5
Barnes has a 2.84 ERA/2.72 FIP since coming back from his injury. This would be a very weird time to give up on him.
Put me on record as also being against getting rid of Taylor and Schreiber, as some on this page have inexplicably suggested.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 7, 2022 11:13:51 GMT -5
Barnes has one year at about 8 million and an option for the same with a 2 million buyout. I don't think he would be hard to deal somewhere. They wouldn't get much return if any though.
I'd be okay either way, if Bloom can offload him to use the 8M elsewhere then sure go for it. If Bloom wants to roll the dice that the Barnes we've seen back from the injury is closer to his real talent and ability than the one we've seen since basically last July then sure go for it. One year 8M isn't some albatross of a deal and I personally don't understand why some blast the deal completely and act like he's getting paid like an elite closer because he's not.
The deal hasn't worked out but at the time of Barnes signing it I thought hey that could be a steal for him since he looked like a near elite bullpen arm. Obviously the sticky-tack and injuries since have derailed him and overall it certainly hasn't worked out but it wasn't a bad gamble if you ask me.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 7, 2022 11:16:23 GMT -5
Barnes has one year at about 8 million and an option for the same with a 2 million buyout. I don't think he would be hard to deal somewhere. They wouldn't get much return if any though. I'd be okay either way, if Bloom can offload him to use the 8M elsewhere then sure go for it. If Bloom wants to roll the dice that the Barnes we've seen back from the injury is closer to his real talent and ability than the one we've seen since basically last July then sure go for it. One year 8M isn't some albatross of a deal and I personally don't understand why some blast the deal completely and act like he's getting paid like an elite closer because he's not. The deal hasn't worked out but at the time of Barnes signing it I thought hey that could be a steal for him since he looked like a near elite bullpen arm. Obviously the sticky-tack and injuries since have derailed him and overall it certainly hasn't worked out but it wasn't a bad gamble if you ask me. I've got no problem having him back next season if he finishes up strong. But ya,you could probably attach one of their tough rule5 decisions to Barnes to move him in the offseason
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Post by incandenza on Sept 7, 2022 11:19:16 GMT -5
Barnes has one year at about 8 million and an option for the same with a 2 million buyout. I don't think he would be hard to deal somewhere. They wouldn't get much return if any though. I'd be okay either way, if Bloom can offload him to use the 8M elsewhere then sure go for it. If Bloom wants to roll the dice that the Barnes we've seen back from the injury is closer to his real talent and ability than the one we've seen since basically last July then sure go for it. One year 8M isn't some albatross of a deal and I personally don't understand why some blast the deal completely and act like he's getting paid like an elite closer because he's not. The deal hasn't worked out but at the time of Barnes signing it I thought hey that could be a steal for him since he looked like a near elite bullpen arm. Obviously the sticky-tack and injuries since have derailed him and overall it certainly hasn't worked out but it wasn't a bad gamble if you ask me. Consider that Ottavino cost $9 million at a time when he had a much better recent track record than Barnes and the Yankees had to package a prospect with him to trade him. If Bloom wanted to trade Barnes for the salary relief he'd definitely have to do the same.
All the more reason to just roll with him and hope he can be healthy and effective.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 7, 2022 11:21:46 GMT -5
Barnes has one year at about 8 million and an option for the same with a 2 million buyout. I don't think he would be hard to deal somewhere. They wouldn't get much return if any though. I'd be okay either way, if Bloom can offload him to use the 8M elsewhere then sure go for it. If Bloom wants to roll the dice that the Barnes we've seen back from the injury is closer to his real talent and ability than the one we've seen since basically last July then sure go for it. One year 8M isn't some albatross of a deal and I personally don't understand why some blast the deal completely and act like he's getting paid like an elite closer because he's not. The deal hasn't worked out but at the time of Barnes signing it I thought hey that could be a steal for him since he looked like a near elite bullpen arm. Obviously the sticky-tack and injuries since have derailed him and overall it certainly hasn't worked out but it wasn't a bad gamble if you ask me. I've got no problem having him back next season if he finishes up strong. But ya,you could probably attach one of their tough rule5 decisions to Barnes to move him in the offseason I think they could easily flip him without adding a tough rule 5 guy but it could kill two birds with one stone and strengthen the package from a probable non-prospect type of guy to maybe a Bloom lotto ticket type. Looking at last year's FA relievers and deals given out, Familia got 6M from the Phillies. Money gets tossed around pretty good to basically mid-level relievers with an up and down career. I could see some West Coast team in a big ballpark thinking Barnes can be a decent piece of a strong bullpen.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 7, 2022 11:23:37 GMT -5
Barnes has one year at about 8 million and an option for the same with a 2 million buyout. I don't think he would be hard to deal somewhere. They wouldn't get much return if any though. I'd be okay either way, if Bloom can offload him to use the 8M elsewhere then sure go for it. If Bloom wants to roll the dice that the Barnes we've seen back from the injury is closer to his real talent and ability than the one we've seen since basically last July then sure go for it. One year 8M isn't some albatross of a deal and I personally don't understand why some blast the deal completely and act like he's getting paid like an elite closer because he's not. The deal hasn't worked out but at the time of Barnes signing it I thought hey that could be a steal for him since he looked like a near elite bullpen arm. Obviously the sticky-tack and injuries since have derailed him and overall it certainly hasn't worked out but it wasn't a bad gamble if you ask me. Consider that Ottavino cost $9 million at a time when he had a much better recent track record than Barnes and the Yankees had to package a prospect with him to trade him. If Bloom wanted to trade Barnes for the salary relief he'd definitely have to do the same.
All the more reason to just roll with him and hope he can be healthy and effective.
I'm not so sure when I see that a guy like Familia got 6M from the Phillies last offseason. They'd probably have to pay a couple million but maybe not if he ends the season strong, but on the flipside if he ends the season strong why trade him?
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 7, 2022 11:24:06 GMT -5
I've got no problem having him back next season if he finishes up strong. But ya,you could probably attach one of their tough rule5 decisions to Barnes to move him in the offseason I think they could easily flip him without adding a tough rule 5 guy but it could kill two birds with one stone and strengthen the package from a probable non-prospect type of guy to maybe a Bloom lotto ticket type. Looking at last year's FA relievers and deals given out, Familia got 6M from the Phillies. Money gets tossed around pretty good to basically mid-level relievers with an up and down career. I could see some West Coast team in a big ballpark thinking Barnes can be a decent piece of a strong bullpen. Not attaching anyone would be ideal. I was kinda basing it off of the Ottavino deal
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Post by incandenza on Sept 7, 2022 11:30:16 GMT -5
Consider that Ottavino cost $9 million at a time when he had a much better recent track record than Barnes and the Yankees had to package a prospect with him to trade him. If Bloom wanted to trade Barnes for the salary relief he'd definitely have to do the same.
All the more reason to just roll with him and hope he can be healthy and effective.
I'm not so sure when I see that a guy like Familia got 6M from the Phillies last offseason. They'd probably have to pay a couple million but maybe not if he ends the season strong, but on the flipside if he ends the season strong why trade him? I couldn't begin to tell you why Dombrowski thought Familia would be wroth $6 million, but considering that he got released despite that investment, they obviously thought he would perform better than he has. They saw some value there. In any case, Familia's career ERA is 3.49 and Barnes' is 4.16 so the case can be made that his $6 million already goes to show that Barnes would be worth considerably less on the market than his $8 million salary.
In any event, I think you're right on the last point: if he finishes strong they should keep him. But if he doesn't I think he has no trade value anyway.
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Post by station13 on Sept 7, 2022 11:48:23 GMT -5
Barnes isn’t going away with the money he is making. He hasn't done anything for 1.5 years now to keep his roster. Sometimes you just need to cut ties.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 7, 2022 11:55:02 GMT -5
A few thoughts on the players being discussed:
Matt Barnes - Guaranteed 9.75mil (7.5mil + 8mil w/2.25mil buyout). If he goes on a tear through the rest of the season then a team may take him at that cost, but if that occurs then this team would likely take him at that cost. Familia had a 27.5% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate last year while Barnes has a 19.4% strikeout rate and 12.9% walk rate, along with injury issues, this year. Familia was a bad overpay by the Phillies but even if someone was willing to offer that again, Barnes doesn't come close. Best-case scenario (if he doesn't rebound) the Red Sox pay half of his guarantee to give him away to a team that thinks they can fix him. Doesn't make sense to me at this point unless the 26/40 man spot is that badly needed.
Josh Taylor - He's a proven 1-war lefty arm, which is quite valuable. Unless there's reason to believe he won't recover from his injuries, we should be desperately wanting him back ASAP as he has been the main piece they've been missing in the bullpen (a back-end lefty reliever).
Danish/Brasier - They are unexciting replacement-ish level players. It makes sense to always want someone better, but seasons are long and when attrition sets in, we'll be happy to have one or both for a spell. Brasier will cost ~2mil next year, so I could see the Red Sox cutting him if they don't find a taker in a trade (assuming the young guys look good) in order to open a 40-man spot. But given Bloom's penchant for depth, I'm betting he makes it into spring training. It makes more sense to keep Danish for now and replace him once the younger guys have proven to be better rather than cut him and risk the younger guys being worse. These guys are chaff - and bullpens need that.
I currently have Brasier as a placeholder until one of the young guys proves they deserve a spot. As we're generally speaking of the young guys as a group, it shows that hasn't happened yet. Let's hope we see it before the end of the season.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 7, 2022 17:17:40 GMT -5
My pitching staff looks like this: Starters RH Michael Wacha LH Chris Sale RH Nick Pivetta RH Brayan Bello RH Tanner Houck RH/LH FA Long Roles RH Kutter Crawford RH Josh Winckowski Bullpen RH Garrett Whitlock RH John Schreiber RH FA RH Matt Barnes RH Frank German RH Zack Kelly LH FA (would love to re-sign Strahm) LH Taylor (if healthy - huge if) I think Wacha gets re-signed, Houck rejoins the rotation, Bello will be a solid rotation add, Winck and Crawford are solid enough to pitch 2 to 3 innings in valuable relief, and the bullpen adds a FA or two. Strahm may be a long shot, he announced he planned on transitioning into a starter in 2023 I heard that, but some team still needs to buy into it! If they do not then he is still a reliever.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 7, 2022 17:20:17 GMT -5
I think Whitlock is far more likely to transition to the rotation than Houck just based on their pitch arsenals. Houck needs the "play up" boost from being in the bullpen in a way that Whitlock doesn't. Whitlock needs to prove he can stay in the rotation. I would rather have an entire year of Whitlock in the pen, then half a year in the rotation!
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