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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 8, 2022 6:58:16 GMT -5
I’d leave him in pen too. We might be able to have a decent pen if we can add a lefty or two. I can see German and Mata in pen too.
Whitlock Schreiber Lefty Barnes Hauck Mata German Lefty Hill as player/coach?
Would allow us to spend money on two starters. Wacha and ?.
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mobaz
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Posts: 2,754
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Post by mobaz on Sept 8, 2022 7:19:34 GMT -5
I’d leave him in pen too. We might be able to have a decent pen if we can add a lefty or two. I can see German and Mata in pen too. Whitlock Schreiber Lefty Barnes Hauck Mata German Lefty Hill as player/coach? Would allow us to spend money on two starters. Wacha and ?. I'd personally keep Mata as a starter as long as possible, JUST IN CASE.
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Post by xdmo on Oct 1, 2022 20:48:21 GMT -5
www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/09/sean-doolittle-plans-to-pitch-in-2023.htmlI see the Sox going after Doolittle pretty hard this off-season. The Sox need a lefty reliever. They'll probably keep Josh Taylor around, but I don't think they're going to give him much rope if he shows nothing in spring training next year. Outside of Taylor, the Sox got nothing for left handed relievers.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 2, 2022 9:37:45 GMT -5
I adore Sean Doolittle for any number of reasons, but he's not a guy you "go after" at this point in his career.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 3, 2022 12:01:45 GMT -5
It's pretty simple: add a righty and two lefties, and not guys who might be really good but that you expect will be really good.
Ort, Kelly, and German have zero MLB roster spots saved for them. If they are 8 through 10 on your bullpen depth chart, they will see plenty of MLB action because of injuries.
Sale, X, Wacha, Bello, Whitlock, Pivetta.
Crawford as long man and spot starter
Houck, Barnes, Schreiber, and
Right, lefty, lefty.
In the NRI world, load up on potential Brasier / Schreiber breakthroughs (including Taylor; 40-man crunches are endemic among good teams and I can't see anyone giving him a 40-man spot).
----
An argument that good relief pitching may well be undervalued by modern analytics ...
A study I may or may not do: is there any evidence that bad bullpen performance leads to bad clutch hitting, because of its impact on team psychology? I've already noticed that team clutch hitting seems to be streaky. I'm pretty sure that first half clutch performance (offense + defense) is not statistically predictive, because I've seen that data. But that doesn't mean that a team that was un-clutch for most or all season was just unlucky. It means that half of the teams that were significantly un-clutch in the first half straightened things out and performed well in the clutch in the second half.
I don't think you can deny that hitters perform badly in the clutch when they are pressing. We saw that all year. And it just seems to me that an effective, trustworthy bullpen sets a tone for confident performances in every aspect of play. Expecting to win is huge.
If you do decide to spend more money (or prospect talent) on the bullpen, the challenge of course is identifying guys who will be good again next year.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 3, 2022 13:48:32 GMT -5
Can you bring in 3 such bullpen guys with the money they'll need to spend elsewhere though? Thinking SP, RF, SS and maybe Devers extension when I say that. Third legit FA bullpen arm just seems like more of a nice-to-have over just carrying, say, Kelly on the MLB roster to start the year. I do think nobody from the Ort, German, Bazardo crew stepping up has set the ideal minimum of legit RP acquisitions at 2 though.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 3, 2022 13:55:54 GMT -5
Can you bring in 3 such bullpen guys with the money they'll need to spend elsewhere though? Thinking SP, RF, SS and maybe Devers extension when I say that. Third legit FA bullpen arm just seems like more of a nice-to-have over just carrying, say, Kelly on the MLB roster to start the year. I do think nobody from the Ort, German, Bazardo crew stepping up has set the ideal minimum of legit RP acquisitions at 2 though. What could a bullpen arm cost, Michael, $10?
...Okay, maybe it's more like $10 million to add three arms on the Diekman/Strahm tier. But that's what I have them pencilled in to spend on the bullpen. Seems plenty affordable. (Quibble with eric though: there is literally no relief pitcher on earth you can expect will be very good; "might be" is the ceiling with these guys.)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 3, 2022 14:21:41 GMT -5
I hear you but Diekman and Strahm cost $7m alone and I take the premise as "more sure than that." Strahm himself won't be that cheap again now that he's essentially gotten through the season mostly healthy and Diekman was coming off Oakland declining a $4m option on him, so this wasn't really top of the market. A true late-inning type is going to be $7-8m AAV alone, and I want at least one of those to work in with Barnes, Schreiber, and Houck.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 3, 2022 18:36:33 GMT -5
Now with the Canadian rules changed, Chafin should be in play for that ~8mil range. Given he's a lefty, he would work great alongside the current right-handed relievers. If they then add Hill for 4-6mil, along with the chaff in AAA, the bullpen should be pretty solid and deep (helped by the AAA starter depth, which could assist in the bullpen if needed).
So, 12-14 mil for the bullpen seems reasonable and allows for ~70mil to be spent elsewhere.
But knowing Bloom, there will be some reclamation projects thrown in there.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 3, 2022 20:07:13 GMT -5
Can you bring in 3 such bullpen guys with the money they'll need to spend elsewhere though? Thinking SP, RF, SS and maybe Devers extension when I say that. Third legit FA bullpen arm just seems like more of a nice-to-have over just carrying, say, Kelly on the MLB roster to start the year. I do think nobody from the Ort, German, Bazardo crew stepping up has set the ideal minimum of legit RP acquisitions at 2 though. I just checked Kelly's xwOBA and it's .260, quite a bit better than his wOBA of .316. I'll have to look at it broken down by batted ball type to gets a truer picture.
But here's a useful set of facts which I am looking up right now. Average wOBA or xwOBA by role (where the 30 best relievers are regarded as closers, etc,):
.241 closer .262 8th .273 7th .288 6th
.240 / .237 Whitlock, relief
.250 / .255 Schreiber .260 / .316 Kelly .289 / .262 Houck .292 / .301 Bazardo .299 / .276 Barnes, August on .353 / .366 Ort (.325 / .381 since FB velo increase) .395 / .508 German
Houck as a starter was .059 / .042 worse, Whitlock as a starter was .075 / .075 worse, but was really hurting for most of that.
I'll have to get the true xwOBA figures to get a better handle on whether they need a RH acquisition. Adding another guy who should be good (intermediate between known quantity and taking a flyer, i.e. reasonably confident about upside) might well be
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Post by greenmonster on Oct 5, 2022 13:44:04 GMT -5
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Post by ponch73 on Oct 5, 2022 14:17:46 GMT -5
Wonder why the Rays would DFA a guy like this who is young and cheap? Perhaps it was the lack of swing-and-miss stuff?
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Post by incandenza on Oct 13, 2022 8:21:55 GMT -5
Updating this old comment...
(Kimbrel wasn't a free agent but the Dodgers traded Pollock for the right to pay him $16 million so that indicates what his market value was.)
The very best of the newly-signed relievers (Iglesias) was 46th in the majors in reliever ERA (min. 30 IP) and none of the others were in the top 100.
Lest anyone get any funny ideas about signing an expensive relief pitcher...
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Post by greenmonster on Nov 10, 2022 10:22:40 GMT -5
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Post by xdmo on Nov 10, 2022 10:36:00 GMT -5
He seems like a minor league contract with a invite to spring training type of signing with opt outs and stuff.
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Post by soxaddict on Nov 10, 2022 20:49:19 GMT -5
Has Bloom's name written all over him. A once elite reliever, coming off injury. Possibly a Paxton type deal.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 11, 2022 12:29:51 GMT -5
I'd love to take a flyer on Anderson. I just would not pencil him into the opening day bullpen.
Suarez getting 5 years from SD is nuts. I wonder what that might do to the RP market.
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Post by GyIantosca on Nov 11, 2022 12:52:52 GMT -5
I wish a couple kids could step up and claim bullpen jobs. Pull them from starting roles and convert to bullpen.
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Post by soxfanatic on Nov 12, 2022 10:02:20 GMT -5
Rafael Montero off the board. He re-signed with Houston.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 12, 2022 10:20:23 GMT -5
Rafael Montero off the board. He re-signed with Houston. 3/34.5
Wouldn't want that one on the books
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 12, 2022 10:26:33 GMT -5
After the early reliever deals it may be cheaper to sign back-end starters to fill the holes.
Pencil Paxton (@ 4mil) into the bullpen and bring back Hill.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 12, 2022 10:26:40 GMT -5
3/34.5 for a 32 year old with a career 4.64 ERA? Good lord. That guy has regression written all over him.
The bullpen market seems a little bananas at the moment.
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Nov 12, 2022 10:35:20 GMT -5
I think it’s pretty clear that Bloom will stay away from pricy bullpen additions. He even needed German to assuage adding Ottavino’s salary two years ago. It does make sense for a number of reasons, but I wouldn’t expect any deals over $20mil total. He might still be feeling burned by Barnes.
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Post by manfred on Nov 12, 2022 10:47:09 GMT -5
It is fine — likely correct — to say we don’t want to add these sort of contracts.
But… if that is the market, that is the market. So we are going to have to expect some creative moves… which is a good way of saying risky.
Bigger picture: for all the talk of how much money they *can* spend, it takes two to tango (as they say). The Sox need a lot of help in the pen, and seeing guys sign (and what they sign for) makes it complicated.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 12, 2022 11:20:00 GMT -5
It is fine — likely correct — to say we don’t want to add these sort of contracts. But… if that is the market, that is the market. So we are going to have to expect some creative moves… which is a good way of saying risky. Bigger picture: for all the talk of how much money they *can* spend, it takes two to tango (as they say). The Sox need a lot of help in the pen, and seeing guys sign (and what they sign for) makes it complicated. Bullpen arms are inherently risky because, to simplify things only slightly, they're all in the same tier of not-quite-good-enough-to-be-starters who can find a niche of success for a few years in the bullpen, but it's almost impossible to say for whom that success will begin or when it will end. Spending big on relievers is the bigger risk - see Barnes, Kimbrel, et al. ad inf.
I think the key to next season will be the young pitching. How many solid innings can they get out of Whitlock, Houck, Crawford, Winckowski, German, Kelly, Seabold, and as the season goes on, Mata, Murphy, and Walter? If they get some good relief innings out of some combination of those guys, Barnes continues to look good like he did late last season, Schreiber is solid, and they can make one decent Strahm-like addition I think the bullpen can be pretty strong.
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