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Post by manfred on Nov 12, 2022 11:28:53 GMT -5
It is fine — likely correct — to say we don’t want to add these sort of contracts. But… if that is the market, that is the market. So we are going to have to expect some creative moves… which is a good way of saying risky. Bigger picture: for all the talk of how much money they *can* spend, it takes two to tango (as they say). The Sox need a lot of help in the pen, and seeing guys sign (and what they sign for) makes it complicated. Bullpen arms are inherently risky because, to simplify things only slightly, they're all in the same tier of not-quite-good-enough-to-be-starters who can find a niche of success for a few years in the bullpen, but it's almost impossible to say for whom that success will begin or when it will end. Spending big on relievers is the bigger risk - see Barnes, Kimbrel, et al. ad inf.
I think the key to next season will be the young pitching. How many solid innings can they get out of Whitlock, Houck, Crawford, Winckowski, German, Kelly, Seabold, and as the season goes on, Mata, Murphy, and Walter? If they get some good relief innings out of some combination of those guys, Barnes continues to look good like he did late last season, Schreiber is solid, and they can make one decent Strahm-like addition I think the bullpen can be pretty strong.
Fair enough, but if Whitlock starts, Crawford likely starts (either in Boston or AAA as depth), that list looks a lot different. I like Houck. But Winckowski, German, Kelly, and Seabold? Oh my. You seem to be suggesting that if they gave last year’s bullpen this year — likely minus Whitlock — they’ll be fine. I don’t buy that.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 12, 2022 12:00:39 GMT -5
Bullpen arms are inherently risky because, to simplify things only slightly, they're all in the same tier of not-quite-good-enough-to-be-starters who can find a niche of success for a few years in the bullpen, but it's almost impossible to say for whom that success will begin or when it will end. Spending big on relievers is the bigger risk - see Barnes, Kimbrel, et al. ad inf.
I think the key to next season will be the young pitching. How many solid innings can they get out of Whitlock, Houck, Crawford, Winckowski, German, Kelly, Seabold, and as the season goes on, Mata, Murphy, and Walter? If they get some good relief innings out of some combination of those guys, Barnes continues to look good like he did late last season, Schreiber is solid, and they can make one decent Strahm-like addition I think the bullpen can be pretty strong.
Fair enough, but if Whitlock starts, Crawford likely starts (either in Boston or AAA as depth), that list looks a lot different. I like Houck. But Winckowski, German, Kelly, and Seabold? Oh my. You seem to be suggesting that if they gave last year’s bullpen this year — likely minus Whitlock — they’ll be fine. I don’t buy that. Well if they have Sale, Paxton, Eovaldi, Bello, Pivetta, Whitlock, and Crawford to start, and might add more starters (Hill? Senga?) then someone's going to the bullpen. Winckowski strikes me as the sort of not-quite-good-enough-to-be-a-starter guy who could do okay in the bullpen. German certainly has upside. Maybe even Pivetta or Paxton winds up in the bullpen. Those were options they didn't use last year.
But look, it might not work. The bullpen might not be that good again. My point is just that spending big on relievers is not a magic fix; it's actually the riskiest approach to take.
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Post by xdmo on Nov 12, 2022 12:03:47 GMT -5
They need to spend money on a LH reliever this off-season, but other than that I'm not sure what the Sox need bullpen wise to fix it.
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Post by manfred on Nov 12, 2022 12:12:47 GMT -5
Fair enough, but if Whitlock starts, Crawford likely starts (either in Boston or AAA as depth), that list looks a lot different. I like Houck. But Winckowski, German, Kelly, and Seabold? Oh my. You seem to be suggesting that if they gave last year’s bullpen this year — likely minus Whitlock — they’ll be fine. I don’t buy that. Well if they have Sale, Paxton, Eovaldi, Bello, Pivetta, Whitlock, and Crawford to start, and might add more starters (Hill? Senga?) then someone's going to the bullpen. Winckowski strikes me as the sort of not-quite-good-enough-to-be-a-starter guy who could do okay in the bullpen. German certainly has upside. Maybe even Pivetta or Paxton winds up in the bullpen. Those were options they didn't use last year.
But look, it might not work. The bullpen might not be that good again. My point is just that spending big on relievers is not a magic fix; it's actually the riskiest approach to take.
I agree to a large extent. But they need at least one certain(as possible) guy… and the market appears to be pricing that dearly. My point was if you don’t want to spend big for that, and there is a great argument for that, then you better pray that what didn’t work last year works this year. For example… not having a legit closer sucked last year. I would put not-great odds that anyone on this list emerges as a lockdown guy. So it is status quo. My larger point is just that whatever the massive pool of money the Sox have, that only matters if the stars align — and I’m worried they don’t. They need bullpen help, but it looks like for some reason that is ridiculously expensive already. They need OF and DH, but those options are woeful. If they were not very good last year, and the pen was a weak spot, running much the same crew doesn’t seem like an ideal scenario. What would I do differently? I am not sure what can be done. Spmetimes you are just on a really tight spot. Add: this is where we need some genius. Who knew Koji would be a monster? We need a creative solution that none of us could predict. That is a big test.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 12, 2022 12:14:55 GMT -5
Fair enough, but if Whitlock starts, Crawford likely starts (either in Boston or AAA as depth), that list looks a lot different. I like Houck. But Winckowski, German, Kelly, and Seabold? Oh my. You seem to be suggesting that if they gave last year’s bullpen this year — likely minus Whitlock — they’ll be fine. I don’t buy that. Well if they have Sale, Paxton, Eovaldi, Bello, Pivetta, Whitlock, and Crawford to start, and might add more starters (Hill? Senga?) then someone's going to the bullpen. Winckowski strikes me as the sort of not-quite-good-enough-to-be-a-starter guy who could do okay in the bullpen. German certainly has upside. Maybe even Pivetta or Paxton winds up in the bullpen. Those were options they didn't use last year.
But look, it might not work. The bullpen might not be that good again. My point is just that spending big on relievers is not a magic fix; it's actually the riskiest approach to take.
I don't disagree in general but I think it's just as risky to throw a ton of spaghetti on the wall and hope that enough sticks. It sure as hell didn't work in 2022 and it wasn't working that great prior to that. What do you do when a bunch of fringe pitchers pitch like fringe pitchers? I mean the bullpen is a difference maker. In the post-season you saw the Astros trotting out quality option after quality option, Neris for the 6th, Abreu for the 7th, Montero for the 8th, Pressly for the 9th (think the Astros regret spending the $ on Pressly? No, of course not! They picked the right guy), and then Brown or Stanek or Smith even Seth Martinez as viable options beyond their main guys. Let's just say the Sox pen didn't exactly resemble that the past year. Like any free agent, it's about picking the right one and with the smaller sample sizes of relievers that's harder to do, but it's still something that is needed. Looking at those names, I don't know that Winckowski is better out of the pen, if his stuff plays better. I guess you can say that anybody's stuff should play better in shorter stints, but is he effective? I can see Crawford being a guy who can help out of the pen and I think Houck winds up there. Relying on Paxton for anything doesn't make any sense. I think Pivetta could be one of those guys who is better in the pen but the problem is that there is too reliability in the rotation to move Pivetta to the pen. Too many 120 innings type starters instead of 175 inning type guys which Pivetta kind of is, but they're not necessarily quality innings but the soaking up of innings at a better than replacement level rate in itself is valuable. I do think they're going to have to spend some money on a bullpen guy with a decent track record to provide some semblance of stability even with the inherent risks that bullpen guys present. I mean, if you miss with a pen guy, you're out $10 million/year. If you invest in a starter with a good track record and he gets hurt or underperforms that's $20 plus million/year. Either way there are risks in free agency no matter what you do.
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Post by jdb on Nov 12, 2022 12:23:13 GMT -5
If the White Sox are trying to trim payroll would Graveman and 2 years at $8 per be an option?
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Post by gerry on Nov 12, 2022 12:55:22 GMT -5
It wasn’t as if the Pen didn’t have good pitchers. Several RP’s contributed to the consistent blown holds and saves and embarrassing losses. They likely won’t be back.
Several other problems may have been resolved already. Barnes, who spent most of the season recovering from whatever, only found his groove towards the end. Houck and Whitlock played through what ultimately were season ending issues which needed surgery to correct. Into the breach stepped Schreiber and Kelly. They will likely be back and be reliable.
I think building a healthy core of Houck, Schreiber, Kelly, Barnes, maybe Whitlock is a very good start. Adding Hill and Crawford as long relievers/spot starters/rotation depth is smart on so many levels. Finding the right one or two RP’s on the market, and aiming some big AAA arms towards the Pen, as mentioned above, seems like a good idea. I am no longer worried about the Pen for 2023.
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Post by cdj on Nov 12, 2022 14:00:21 GMT -5
If the White Sox are trying to trim payroll would Graveman and 2 years at $8 per be an option? That’s my pick
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 12, 2022 14:02:22 GMT -5
If the White Sox are trying to trim payroll would Graveman and 2 years at $8 per be an option? That’s my pick He'd be a good get.
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Post by shagworthy on Nov 12, 2022 14:26:48 GMT -5
It wasn’t as if the Pen didn’t have good pitchers. Several RP’s contributed to the consistent blown holds and saves and embarrassing losses. They likely won’t be back. Several other problems may have been resolved already. Barnes, who spent most of the season recovering from whatever, only found his groove towards the end. Houck and Whitlock played through what ultimately were season ending issues which needed surgery to correct. Into the breach stepped Schreiber and Kelly. They will likely be back and be reliable. I think building a healthy core of Houck, Schreiber, Kelly, Barnes, maybe Whitlock is a very good start. Adding Hill and Crawford as long relievers/spot starters/rotation depth is smart on so many levels. Finding the right one or two RP’s on the market, and aiming some big AAA arms towards the Pen, as mentioned above, seems like a good idea. I am no longer worried about the Pen for 2023. Almost every pen is a crapshoot year to year. I am much more concerned with the holes they have in the everyday 9 than the pen. If they can't hit or slug, the pen doesn't matter. Yes, it's time to move on from JD, and unfortunately we're probably losing X, our outfield sans Verdugo was a giant disappointment last year and there are soo many holes to plug but not enough fingers for Johhny to stick in the dyke.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 12, 2022 15:31:20 GMT -5
Winckowski to the pen and forgeting about anything but his FB/slider combo would probably be a good help. I can't help but remember his nice ST games early last year, him sitting mid 90's and throwing nothing but the FB and slider then.
He's not a starter and the team already has enough fringe depth with Seabold, Murphy, Crawford and higher upside folks as well at AA and AAA. We see questionable relievers now getting 30-100m deals already this offseason. Time to develop some who we have.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 12, 2022 15:32:09 GMT -5
It wasn’t as if the Pen didn’t have good pitchers. Several RP’s contributed to the consistent blown holds and saves and embarrassing losses. They likely won’t be back. Several other problems may have been resolved already. Barnes, who spent most of the season recovering from whatever, only found his groove towards the end. Houck and Whitlock played through what ultimately were season ending issues which needed surgery to correct. Into the breach stepped Schreiber and Kelly. They will likely be back and be reliable. I think building a healthy core of Houck, Schreiber, Kelly, Barnes, maybe Whitlock is a very good start. Adding Hill and Crawford as long relievers/spot starters/rotation depth is smart on so many levels. Finding the right one or two RP’s on the market, and aiming some big AAA arms towards the Pen, as mentioned above, seems like a good idea. I am no longer worried about the Pen for 2023. Almost every pen is a crapshoot year to year. I am much more concerned with the holes they have in the everyday 9 than the pen. If they can't hit or slug, the pen doesn't matter. Yes, it's time to move on from JD, and unfortunately we're probably losing X, our outfield sans Verdugo was a giant disappointment last year and there are soo many holes to plug but not enough fingers for Johhny to stick in the dyke. All true. But that bullpen did give away many games last year and there's nobody you can really rely on. Barnes was good, then he was great, then he was a mess, then he was ok again. Hard to know what to expect there. Wouldn't want to go in with him as the closer. Houck should be good in the pen but making him a one inning reliever is a waste of what he can do. This guy can pitch two innings 3 times a week - if his back is ok. Schreiber should get a look at the closer role. Don't know if he'll get that chance. While Schreiber could be a fluke, he does have a pretty good minor league track record so I'll give him the benefit of any doubt. But beyond that, Kelly was promising but we'll see if can be a solid middle relief option. I like Taylor and Strahm, probably more than most but Strahm is probably a goner and who knows how healthy Taylor is? They could use a proven lefty like Taylor Rogers or Will Smith, even though both weren't at their best in 2022, and both have closed before. I know I don't want to see Darwinzon Hernandez again. I like the Graveman suggestion. Maybe spend the 15 - 18 million on Rogers and Graveman to give them closing experience and two good track records might help the pen out. I get the love of Whitlock in the pen, but that guy can't go on back-to-back days so he's a weapon twice per week, but given his minor league track record of starting I think the Sox have to give Whitlock a real crack at the rotation and let Houck try to do what Whitlock used to do. I know I'd feel better about a pen with Graveman, Rogers, Schreiber, and Houck as the main guys, and even in that scenario I'd look at Schreiber as the closer, although Cora might not. Perhaps Barnes, Kelly and Crawford and maybe Taylor round out the pen. If the Sox are supposedly going over the tax limit, I don't see why they can't pump in 15 - 20 million of improvements, and add another 30 million of improvements for their rotation, keep X, extend Devers, and get a useful RF and DH for another 50 million or so. To that end I would sign Haniger and either Yoshida or Comforto with a scenario of Comforto in RF and Haniger DHing or Yoshida/Haniger splitting LF/DH and Verdugo shifting over to RF.
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Post by thelpc on Nov 12, 2022 15:57:28 GMT -5
I seem to remember Seabold’s fastball being a few mph faster when he came out of the pen for a game with Worcester last year. Feel like his changeup could really play out of the pen. Don’t think he’s gonna hack it as a starter so I hope they gave him a look in the bullpen in spring training
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Post by greenmonster on Nov 12, 2022 17:29:00 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2022 10:09:32 GMT -5
Per MLB.com's Anne Rogers: "The other question is who will fit into the Royals’ budget this winter, and Picollo emphasized again that the payroll will be similar to this past season. [...] Trading from their big league roster to create payroll room and open up playing time for young players remains a likely route." Been curious for a while about Scott Barlow? Has been a fairly lockdown closer the last few years, but hasn't gotten much attention - probably because he's in Kansas City. You figure they're a team that Hosmer could feasibly be traded to and he would gladly waive his no trade clause. And if you don't want to give up a big prospect haul, you could feasibly take on some portion of Hunter Dozier's remaining 2 years, 16.75 mil (backup 1B/right handed accessory to Casas if you didn't DFA him?) to sweeten it for KC.
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Post by thelpc on Nov 18, 2022 17:52:19 GMT -5
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Nov 19, 2022 16:51:01 GMT -5
Bring back Strahm
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Nov 22, 2022 22:48:54 GMT -5
Lol, he will probably be a DFA when X re-signs….or someone else Just because Brasier was tendered a contract does not mean he will make the team.
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Post by keninten on Nov 23, 2022 1:31:54 GMT -5
Lol, he will probably be a DFA when X re-signs….or someone else Just because Brasier was tendered a contract does not mean he will make the team. Why wouldn`t they have just DFA Brasier and protected Ward instead?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 23, 2022 1:43:13 GMT -5
Why wouldn`t they have just DFA Brasier and protected Ward instead? If they protect Ward, and need his roster space for a reliever, then they would have to release him down the line and lose him. This way they only 'might' lose him. Essentially they were out of roster slots for what they felt was needed heading into the offseason/season so Ward (and others) wasn't protected. Also, Chaim likes reliever depth and Brasier is a fairly proven ~0.5 fWAR reliever (albeit an older one).
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Post by awalkinthepark on Nov 23, 2022 11:02:12 GMT -5
I think I am the only one who is more or less comfortable with the arms they have in their bullpen. Between Houck, Barnes, Schreiber, Brasier, Hernandez, Kelly, German, Ort, Crawford, Winkowski, Seabold and Josh Taylor, I think there is a chance it shakes out okay. You then also have Mata/Murphy/Walter who will likely get some innings somewhere. You need another lefty in there but I think that bullpen can be solid with a little bit of luck.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Nov 23, 2022 11:27:15 GMT -5
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Post by awalkinthepark on Nov 23, 2022 11:28:55 GMT -5
Wow, there's the lefty lol.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 23, 2022 11:32:28 GMT -5
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Post by soxfaninnj on Nov 23, 2022 11:33:27 GMT -5
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