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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 23, 2022 11:35:18 GMT -5
Worth a flier for just 2 mil guaranteed with a little upside for 2024 if he's decent. Could be worse I suppose.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 23, 2022 11:39:11 GMT -5
He has a 4.56 ERA since the start of 2021 but a 3.33 FIP/3.44 xFIP/3.70 xERA. Seems like a good get.
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Post by manfred on Nov 23, 2022 11:44:21 GMT -5
I’m in favor of something happening, so this will suffice.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Nov 23, 2022 11:52:01 GMT -5
Now the question is whether or not Bloom adds more pieces to the pen, or if they role with some combo of Houck/Barnes/Schreiber/Rodriguez/Brasier/Hernandez/Taylor/Ort/Kelly/German.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 23, 2022 12:01:25 GMT -5
They sure love them some team options. Needed to add a lefty to the bullpen. ERA driven by unsustainably bad LOB%. Deal sounds good to me.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 23, 2022 12:18:52 GMT -5
Now the question is whether or not Bloom adds more pieces to the pen, or if they role with some combo of Houck/Barnes/Schreiber/Rodriguez/Brasier/Hernandez/Taylor/Ort/Kelly/German. If they add Eovaldi/Hill (or the equivalent), then they'd have 7 starters even before getting to Crawford, Winckowski, Seabold, Murphy, Walter, and Mata. So that group can serve as bullpen reinforcements if needed. Seems like enough to me. And if they stop here on the bullpen they still have $76 million to spend on SP/SS/RF/DH.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 23, 2022 12:21:17 GMT -5
He only has three years of service time, so he can stick around through 2025. I don't really get the point of the club option when they have his arb rights.
He had a shoulder injury at the end of last year and the Mets non-tendered him, so that's a little worrisome.
$2 million to get a reliever that's been worth $2 million lately plus getting two years of arb rights looks like a nice piece of business.
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Post by iakovos11 on Nov 23, 2022 12:23:45 GMT -5
Winckowski was pretty good in the pen in the AFL last year (along with a velo uptick), if I recall correctly. Not sure if it means more missed bats, but I think with the depth, he needs to be given an opportunity in the pen. I think he has some potential there to be a solid 7th inning-ish guy.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 23, 2022 12:54:17 GMT -5
I take this to mean that Strahm isn't coming back. Too bad, he's one of the few relievers they had last year that I liked.
I was hoping for Strahm and a healthy Josh Taylor, but who knows if he'll be completely healthy this year? So they bring in Rodriguez whose ERA never matches his FIP. I don't like the walks but he does keep the ball in the yard.
He doesn't excite me but at least it's something.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Nov 23, 2022 13:17:14 GMT -5
A quick look at his splits indicate he's not a lefty killer. He had virtually no LH-RH split in 2022. For his career, he's given up a .691 OPS against LHB and .732 against RHB.
If they see something they like in him, it's a can't-lose signing at those modest dollars.
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Post by xdmo on Nov 23, 2022 13:35:53 GMT -5
I take this to mean that Strahm isn't coming back. Too bad, he's one of the few relievers they had last year that I liked. I was hoping for Strahm and a healthy Josh Taylor, but who knows if he'll be completely healthy this year? So they bring in Rodriguez whose ERA never matches his FIP. I don't like the walks but he does keep the ball in the yard. He doesn't excite me but at least it's something. I see it as Josh Taylor insurance if he stinks again. I think Strahm is still in play for the Sox.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,913
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 23, 2022 14:28:06 GMT -5
Winckowski was pretty good in the pen in the AFL last year (along with a velo uptick), if I recall correctly. Not sure if it means more missed bats, but I think with the depth, he needs to be given an opportunity in the pen. I think he has some potential there to be a solid 7th inning-ish guy. Two things that struck me about Winck was his start-to-start inconsistency, and that his first half was much better than his second half. Was that typical of pitchers of his caliber, based on the overall results?
So I dug up the best comps I could find -- pitchers who faced 250 to 350 hitters as starters, and whose wOBA and xwOBA allowed in their starts were the closest to Winck's.
300 PA, .340 / .363 (xwOBA / wOBA) -- Winck, age 24 rookie
259 PA, .330 /.352 -- Kutter Crawford, age 26 rookie 258 PA, .354 / .367 -- Adrian Martinez, age 26 rookie, A's
345 PA, .360 /.360 -- Keegan Thompson, age 27 sophomore, Cubs (mostly a reliever his rookie year)
Consistency (average standard deviation over 12 successive starts, which is what Crawford and Martinez had as totals):
.071 / .140 Crawford .094 / .110 Winck .111 / .126 Martinez .139 / .166 Thompson
I was thinking that more inconsistency would correspond to upside. Thompson is perhaps an outlier and there's no real difference among the other three.
First half vs. second (dividing their starts into two equal halves), xwOBA:
.353 / .356 Martinez
.306 / .351 Crawford
.313 / .371 Winck .324 / .397 Thompson
First half vs. second, wOBA:
.346 / .375 Thompson
.326 / .405 Winck .328 / .405 Martinez
.286 / .411 Crawford
Again, Thompson is a bit of an outlier in that his karma (wOBA-xwOBA) actually improved. Since that's partly real (not giving up pulled fly ballsy), that again suggests some upside. But all of these guys were less effective in their second halves, which is consistent with the league getting a better book on them as data accrues.
The one thing that might work in Wink's favor is that in debuting at age 24, he has more time to work on improving his ratio of games where he has his plus command to games where he doesn't. And perhaps pitching more often would help that.
I don't see him as a 7th inning guys but he might have a really solid role as the go-to guy to pitch 2 or 3 innings when you're trailing early. That is presumably Crawford's role whenever they have enough healthy guys to populate the rotation, so if pitching more often helps his consistency, he'd be a nice guy to have in Worcester to recall when Crawford has to go into the rotation.
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Post by stevedillard on Nov 23, 2022 15:54:10 GMT -5
I assume this means that Darwin's gone, right?
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Post by dirtdog on Nov 23, 2022 16:49:16 GMT -5
Meh. Bloom continues to feed his dumpster addiction. I guess the good news is if it doesnt work, it is financially insignificant.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Nov 23, 2022 16:56:32 GMT -5
I assume this means that Darwin's gone, right? Idk, I realize the results haven't been there, but lefties that sit at 95 aren't exactly a dime a dozen. I would prefer they hang onto him.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 23, 2022 17:05:07 GMT -5
Meh. Bloom continues to feed his dumpster addiction. I guess the good news is if it doesnt work, it is financially insignificant. I like that your first sentence is a criticism of making low-cost acquisitions and your second sentence explains the exact logic for doing it.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 23, 2022 17:13:38 GMT -5
Meh. Bloom continues to feed his dumpster addiction. I guess the good news is if it doesnt work, it is financially insignificant. What should they be spending on a 6th inning reliever, $10-15mil?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 23, 2022 20:05:08 GMT -5
Joely was almost exclusively a sinker(49.3%)/changeup(38.7%) pitcher last year. With that mix, it's not surprising he has fairly neutral lefty/righty splits.
He also has a slider(5.9%) which he has rarely used since returning to MLB in 2020 and a 4-seam(6.1%) with which the usage has decreased over the last two years.
Sinker averaged 92.8mph and changeup average 87.8mph last season. He ended last season being removed from ALDS with shoulder soreness (likely why the guarantee is low).
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Nov 23, 2022 20:41:51 GMT -5
Meh. Bloom continues to feed his dumpster addiction. I guess the good news is if it doesnt work, it is financially insignificant. I like that your first sentence is a criticism of making low-cost acquisitions and your second sentence explains the exact logic for doing it. i probably shouldn't speak for dirtdog, but i think he meant the 2nd part facetiously. Either way, i am pretty sure his first sentence is an appropriate take for some people. Also, i know your aware, it isn't just salary, it is a roster spot. That has its own opportunity cost. My diehard Mets friend didn't give rave reviews nor did he give awful reviews. Happy he made a move for the bullpen and hope this guy turns into Billy Wagner (lite)
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 23, 2022 20:59:09 GMT -5
I like that your first sentence is a criticism of making low-cost acquisitions and your second sentence explains the exact logic for doing it. i probably shouldn't speak for dirtdog, but i think he meant the 2nd part facetiously. Either way, i am pretty sure his first sentence is an appropriate take for some people. Also, i know your aware, it isn't just salary, it is a roster spot. That has its own opportunity cost. My diehard Mets friend didn't give rave reviews nor did he give awful reviews. Happy he made a move for the bullpen and hope this guy turns into Billy Wagner (lite) What do you mean facetiously? He actually meant that it is financially significant? Or did he mean that it's a bad thing because it isn't financially significant? If the first one - it isn't, if the second - that doesn't make sense to be upset about. By the way, at this salary he's not guaranteed a roster spot for the season by any means.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 23, 2022 21:17:50 GMT -5
i probably shouldn't speak for dirtdog, but i think he meant the 2nd part facetiously. Either way, i am pretty sure his first sentence is an appropriate take for some people. Also, i know your aware, it isn't just salary, it is a roster spot. That has its own opportunity cost. My diehard Mets friend didn't give rave reviews nor did he give awful reviews. Happy he made a move for the bullpen and hope this guy turns into Billy Wagner (lite) What do you mean facetiously? He actually meant that it is financially significant? Or did he mean that it's a bad thing because it isn't financially significant? If the first one - it isn't, if the second - that doesn't make sense to be upset about. By the way, at this salary he's not guaranteed a roster spot for the season by any means. Dirt dog needs to speak for himself to clarify. I interpreted his comments less as a slight at Rodriguez himself and more a comment about the Sox picking at low hanging fruit for the pen, getting a marginal guy, rather than attacking the high leverage late inning relief situation. He wasn't complaining about them not spending 10 million/year on a 6th inning guy, but rather not going after the high leverage 8th inning or closer type reliever(yet?), the guy you'd want to spend 10 million on. At least that's what I think he was saying. I'm certainly more curious who Chaim adds for late inning relief. Yes, Houck and Schreiber are part of the late inning relief situation but they need at least one more guy if not 2 given that I dont have a clue what to expect from Barnes and don't want to pencil him into high leverage. Personally I like Taylor Roger's despite his 4.76 ERA last year. I think there's enough track record to think he can help. I'd like to see Strahm back as well to go with Taylor and Rodriguez.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Nov 23, 2022 21:22:29 GMT -5
i probably shouldn't speak for dirtdog, but i think he meant the 2nd part facetiously. Either way, i am pretty sure his first sentence is an appropriate take for some people. Also, i know your aware, it isn't just salary, it is a roster spot. That has its own opportunity cost. My diehard Mets friend didn't give rave reviews nor did he give awful reviews. Happy he made a move for the bullpen and hope this guy turns into Billy Wagner (lite) What do you mean facetiously? He actually meant that it is financially significant? Or did he mean that it's a bad thing because it isn't financially significant? If the first one - it isn't, if the second - that doesn't make sense to be upset about. By the way, at this salary he's not guaranteed a roster spot for the season by any means. facetiously is an attempt to be not be serious, i read it as an add on to the first point, that is why i said either way. I also don't think he was upset, as you claim, he made an observation others i am sure made. so we signed a guy for 2 million dollars and he isn't guaranteed a roster spot ? wanna wager whether he will be on team on opening day ? I am pretty sure he will. I don't think he is signing relievers for 2 million when he probably has pre-arb options at his disposal. I am not as up to date on all this stuff as some, but does that mean that the 2 million doesn't count against the LT whether he is on the roster or not ? My guess is that it does. The Sox skirt the LT all the time, 2 million is 2 million. it could affect any number of decisions, the deadline...anything. You, and others, seem to think these decisions are marginal, but they really aren't. If the last 3 years have taught me anything, it is that.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 23, 2022 21:31:47 GMT -5
What do you mean facetiously? He actually meant that it is financially significant? Or did he mean that it's a bad thing because it isn't financially significant? If the first one - it isn't, if the second - that doesn't make sense to be upset about. By the way, at this salary he's not guaranteed a roster spot for the season by any means. facetiously is an attempt to be not be serious, i read it as an add on to the first point, that is why i said either way. I also don't think he was upset, as you claim, he made an observation others i am sure made. so we signed a guy for 2 million dollars and he isn't guaranteed a roster spot ? wanna wager whether he will be on team on opening day ? I am pretty sure he will. I don't think he is signing relievers for 2 million when he probably has pre-arb options at his disposal. I am not as up to date on all this stuff as some, but does that mean that the 2 million doesn't count against the LT whether he is on the roster or not ? My guess is that it does. The Sox skirt the LT all the time, 2 million is 2 million. it could affect any number of decisions, the deadline...anything. You, and others, seem to think these decisions are marginal, but there really aren't. If the last 3 years have taught me anything, it is that. As an aside, I always chuckle when I read "low risk" or "nothing to lose" when of course there is downside. Sure it won't hamstring a franchise but the risk of non performance and a carousel of instability and mediocre performances leading to losses is a real risk. Try Franchy at 1b, there's nothing to lose....except ballgames. He didn't cost much $ but he sure helped them lose games. Lol
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 23, 2022 22:00:01 GMT -5
What do you mean facetiously? He actually meant that it is financially significant? Or did he mean that it's a bad thing because it isn't financially significant? If the first one - it isn't, if the second - that doesn't make sense to be upset about. By the way, at this salary he's not guaranteed a roster spot for the season by any means. facetiously is an attempt to be not be serious, i read it as an add on to the first point, that is why i said either way. I also don't think he was upset, as you claim, he made an observation others i am sure made. so we signed a guy for 2 million dollars and he isn't guaranteed a roster spot ? wanna wager whether he will be on team on opening day ? I am pretty sure he will. I don't think he is signing relievers for 2 million when he probably has pre-arb options at his disposal. I am not as up to date on all this stuff as some, but does that mean that the 2 million doesn't count against the LT whether he is on the roster or not ? My guess is that it does. The Sox skirt the LT all the time, 2 million is 2 million. it could affect any number of decisions, the deadline...anything. You, and others, seem to think these decisions are marginal, but they really aren't. If the last 3 years have taught me anything, it is that. To clarify myself on “for the season”, I meant they could cut him if it’s not going well and it think twice about it. I fully expect he’ll be on the roster opening day at this price.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Nov 23, 2022 22:29:49 GMT -5
In actual Red Sox news: they sign Joely Rodriguez to a 1 yr deal with an option year. Acquire Hoy Park from Pittsburgh for DSL pitcher Inmer Lobo.
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