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9/20-9/21 Red Sox @ Reds Series Thread
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Post by patford on Sept 22, 2022 8:20:43 GMT -5
His offensive numbers are going to be essentially better than Mike Trout's best seasons. He is entered a level of of HR's that were only recently done during the steroid era. He has always been a good baseball player. What we are seeing this year makes no sense, if you ask me. He is having a Brady Anderson type outlier offensive season. Either he is having the luckiest walk season of all time or there is a lot to here to be distrustful about here. It's not a total outlier like Brady Anderson. Anderson's career high was more than double his best single season HR total. It came out of nowhere. Aaron Judge already has a 50 HR season on his resume. Judge is simply a great player, as he has been his entire career, a HOFer having a peak season. If he was wearing a Red Sox uniform this year instead I don't think it would be questioned around here. What makes it so strange is the gap between Judge's HR total and the rest of the MLB leaders.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 22, 2022 8:27:45 GMT -5
Of course. E.g., Bogaerts always outperforms his xwOBA. I'm always going on about how you shouldn't look at that stat in a vacuum or apply it in a one-size-fits-all way.
But I was just making an observation about a trend in xwOBA, which is a good way to judge whether Verdugo has actually been declining, as was being implied.
You can “advance stat” this thing into oblivion. And when you are done you can convince yourself that “gosh! Verdugo is actually better than I thought”. But the rest of us here on planet Earth see a marginal talent with regressing REAL numbers and can’t pretend to get excited at all. Verdugo is what he is - consistently a slightly above average hitter. You can think that's fine or you can be sad about it, but what I'm saying is that you're implying his ability is declining and I'm telling you that's not what the best read of the stats says.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 22, 2022 9:08:15 GMT -5
It deserves to be said again. Aaron Judge has earned and deserves the attention he is getting. Who?
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Post by Guidas on Sept 22, 2022 9:34:41 GMT -5
His offensive numbers are going to be essentially better than Mike Trout's best seasons. He is entered a level of of HR's that were only recently done during the steroid era. He has always been a good baseball player. What we are seeing this year makes no sense, if you ask me. He is having a Brady Anderson type outlier offensive season. Either he is having the luckiest walk season of all time or there is a lot to here to be distrustful about here. It's not a total outlier like Brady Anderson. Anderson's career high was more than double his best single season HR total. It came out of nowhere. Aaron Judge already has a 50 HR season on his resume. Judge is simply a great player, as he has been his entire career, a HOFer having a peak season. If he was wearing a Red Sox uniform this year instead I don't think it would be questioned around here. Judge hit 52 in 2017 when the ball was "live." There were also hitters that year who hit 59 (Stanton) 45 (JD Martinez) and 43 (Khris Davis). This year, MLB (once a-f-ing-gain) mucked with the ball to deaden it and added a humidor in each park to further "equalize" the ball. Judge has 60, but the next closest is Schwarber with 40. That is a significant and highly unrepresentative gap. Looking back to 2005, the gap between the leader and second place has usually been low single digits with a double-digit gap only once, at 12 in 2010 when Joey Bats had 54 and Pujols was next at 42. And remember, guys were busted for PED use after 2005, including ARod, who led MLB with 54 (Fielder was next with 50). Even then, the gap was not as significant. So, yes, the gap, the deadened ball and the humidor makes this achievement...an extreme outlier.
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Post by manfred on Sept 22, 2022 10:27:37 GMT -5
You can “advance stat” this thing into oblivion. And when you are done you can convince yourself that “gosh! Verdugo is actually better than I thought”. But the rest of us here on planet Earth see a marginal talent with regressing REAL numbers and can’t pretend to get excited at all. Verdugo is what he is - consistently a slightly above average hitter. You can think that's fine or you can be sad about it, but what I'm saying is that you're implying his ability is declining and I'm telling you that's not what the best read of the stats says. Very slightly above. His wRC+ is 101. And the notion that he is going to catch 2.0 WAR (b or f) is looking pretty bad. There was some confidence that would happen a month ago. If folks are grading on curves for X and others, then on the curve of what people hope from Verdugo or the Sox need, he’s had a bad year. But your larger point is fair… eye of the beholder. I think if he was your 3rd OF, you’d be a really good team. If the OF is 2-3 guys along his lines, you are potentially in trouble.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 22, 2022 10:49:38 GMT -5
Verdugo is what he is - consistently a slightly above average hitter. You can think that's fine or you can be sad about it, but what I'm saying is that you're implying his ability is declining and I'm telling you that's not what the best read of the stats says. Very slightly above. His wRC+ is 101. And the notion that he is going to catch 2.0 WAR (b or f) is looking pretty bad. There was some confidence that would happen a month ago. If folks are grading on curves for X and others, then on the curve of what people hope from Verdugo or the Sox need, he’s had a bad year. But your larger point is fair… eye of the beholder. I think if he was your 3rd OF, you’d be a really good team. If the OF is 2-3 guys along his lines, you are potentially in trouble. Yeah like I said, people can be sad about it if they want.
Not sure why you're harping on this question of how good the outfield is though. That's just an arbitrary third of the lineup. If they're average at LF/CF/RF they're way above average at 2B/SS/3B (pending Xander being re-signed/placed). Across that arbitrary group of 6 positions they look to be in good shape.
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Post by greenmonster on Sept 22, 2022 11:15:42 GMT -5
It's not a total outlier like Brady Anderson. Anderson's career high was more than double his best single season HR total. It came out of nowhere. Aaron Judge already has a 50 HR season on his resume. Judge is simply a great player, as he has been his entire career, a HOFer having a peak season. If he was wearing a Red Sox uniform this year instead I don't think it would be questioned around here. Judge hit 52 in 2017 when the ball was "live." There were also hitters that year who hit 59 (Stanton) 45 (JD Martinez) and 43 (Khris Davis). This year, MLB (once a-f-ing-gain) mucked with the ball to deaden it and added a humidor in each park to further "equalize" the ball. Judge has 60, but the next closest is Schwarber with 40. That is a significant and highly unrepresentative gap. Looking back to 2005, the gap between the leader and second place has usually been low single digits with a double-digit gap only once, at 12 in 2010 when Joey Bats had 54 and Pujols was next at 42. And remember, guys were busted for PED use after 2005, including ARod, who led MLB with 54 (Fielder was next with 50). Even then, the gap was not as significant. So, yes, the gap, the deadened ball and the humidor makes this achievement...an extreme outlier. Call me skeptical but is there any evidence that Yankees games were played with the deadened balls rather than continuing to be played with live balls? Might MLB have thought that someone chasing a HR record in New York was a great way to rebound baseball from a strike? Have opponents seen a bump in HR rates in games against the Yankees than against other teams? Matt Carpenter homered every 10 AB's while playing with the Yankees this year while his 36HR season in 2018 was every 19 AB's. No logical explanation. I also find it convenient that the stage is set for Judge to surpass Ruth & Maris during a game that is being shown on one of MLB's new streaming platform.... Hurry up and subscribe
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Post by manfred on Sept 22, 2022 11:27:33 GMT -5
Very slightly above. His wRC+ is 101. And the notion that he is going to catch 2.0 WAR (b or f) is looking pretty bad. There was some confidence that would happen a month ago. If folks are grading on curves for X and others, then on the curve of what people hope from Verdugo or the Sox need, he’s had a bad year. But your larger point is fair… eye of the beholder. I think if he was your 3rd OF, you’d be a really good team. If the OF is 2-3 guys along his lines, you are potentially in trouble. Yeah like I said, people can be sad about it if they want.
Not sure why you're harping on this question of how good the outfield is though. That's just an arbitrary third of the lineup. If they're average at LF/CF/RF they're way above average at 2B/SS/3B (pending Xander being re-signed/placed). Across that arbitrary group of 6 positions they look to be in good shape.
Not harping. But I am surprised as we near the end of the season and people start their wish lists that mostly people are saying one OF. The projected catcher pair doesn’t appear to be extraordinary offensively… but could be passable. 1b is very much an area of concern. And DH is vacant. So assuming X reups, at the moment they likely have 3 positions of certain good offense. That makes me very nervous.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 22, 2022 12:03:41 GMT -5
Yeah like I said, people can be sad about it if they want.
Not sure why you're harping on this question of how good the outfield is though. That's just an arbitrary third of the lineup. If they're average at LF/CF/RF they're way above average at 2B/SS/3B (pending Xander being re-signed/placed). Across that arbitrary group of 6 positions they look to be in good shape.
Not harping. But I am surprised as we near the end of the season and people start their wish lists that mostly people are saying one OF. The projected catcher pair doesnât appear to be extraordinary offensively⦠but could be passable. 1b is very much an area of concern. And DH is vacant. So assuming X reups, at the moment they likely have 3 positions of certain good offense. That makes me very nervous. Well, let's suppose they do nothing but re-sign Bogaerts and replace JDM with someone else who can muster a 115 wRC+. They could run out basically the same team that's scored the 4th most runs in the AL and that's without even assuming better health from Kiké and Story. Doesn't seem too dire to me.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 22, 2022 12:16:14 GMT -5
Not harping. But I am surprised as we near the end of the season and people start their wish lists that mostly people are saying one OF. The projected catcher pair doesnât appear to be extraordinary offensively⦠but could be passable. 1b is very much an area of concern. And DH is vacant. So assuming X reups, at the moment they likely have 3 positions of certain good offense. That makes me very nervous. Well, let's suppose they do nothing but re-sign Bogaerts and replace JDM with someone else who can muster a 115 wRC+. They could run out basically the same team that's scored the 4th most runs in the AL and that's without even assuming better health from Kiké and Story. Doesn't seem too dire to me. I'd also assume they're upgrading RF in some manner or another and will get better production out of 1st base as I am bullish on Casas to at least be an average 1st baseman next year hitting the ball. So I agree on it's face that this offense will probably put up runs next year and be one of the higher scoring offenses. However I think a big issue has been the situational hitting, it's seemed like all year in games they needed to win to either get the momentum or keep it going it just never happened because the offense went out there and laid an egg. I do believe part of that is just shear bad luck but the other part I think is they need some more power in this lineup and a better constructed lineup. I want Xander back but honestly I've seen enough of him batting 3rd, he's quite frankly not a good run producer. I'd bat him 2nd in that Pedey role of being a table setter. I think he could excel in that role more so than he has batting 3rd. I don't know how they go about doing that though, perhaps Rafi slides up a spot and they get a DH/JD replacement who is worthy of batting 4th.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 22, 2022 12:17:44 GMT -5
It deserves to be said again. Aaron Judge has earned and deserves the attention he is getting. ….little league right field in Yankee stadium definitely helped! Maybe the history book needs an *
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 22, 2022 12:21:53 GMT -5
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Post by benzinger on Sept 22, 2022 14:37:32 GMT -5
Not harping. But I am surprised as we near the end of the season and people start their wish lists that mostly people are saying one OF. The projected catcher pair doesnât appear to be extraordinary offensively⦠but could be passable. 1b is very much an area of concern. And DH is vacant. So assuming X reups, at the moment they likely have 3 positions of certain good offense. That makes me very nervous. Well, let's suppose they do nothing but re-sign Bogaerts and replace JDM with someone else who can muster a 115 wRC+. They could run out basically the same team that's scored the 4th most runs in the AL and that's without even assuming better health from Kiké and Story. Doesn't seem too dire to me. Hypothetically, how much better are they if they just kept Renfroe this year and made the rest of the moves they made? Is he essentially the guy with the 115 wRC+ that you are looking for? Note: I’m not suggesting they are more than a last place team even WITH Renfroe this year.
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Post by benzinger on Sept 22, 2022 14:40:27 GMT -5
It deserves to be said again. Aaron Judge has earned and deserves the attention he is getting. Agree 100%. I said it back in June that he was the runaway MVP this year and he hasn’t let up at all. I also like that he’s going to cost the Yankees another $70-80m more than they wanted/expected to spend on him as he ages into his 30’s, too.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 22, 2022 14:51:26 GMT -5
It deserves to be said again. Aaron Judge has earned and deserves the attention he is getting. Agree 100%. I said it back in June that he was the runaway MVP this year and he hasn’t let up at all. I also like that he’s going to cost the Yankees another $70-80m more than they wanted/expected to spend on him as he ages into his 30’s, too. I'm trying to think what my favored outcome would be with Judge between these two hypotheticals. The Yankees sign him for 8-10+ years at 40+ AAV, which in my mind relatively quickly into that deal he becomes an albatross. Or The Mets sign him and the Yankees fans all have a meltdown. Short term the Mets signing him would be amazing, long term the Yankees giving him a crazy deal could also be amazing. I guess in the possibility that he puts up another 5-6 years anything like he has this year I hope he signs with the Mets.
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