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9/30-10/2 Red Sox @ Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by taiwansox on Oct 1, 2022 15:53:20 GMT -5
Jays 112 runs, Sox 53 runs this season over 18 games, Jays 14-4 (if today becomes a loss) record They are such a relentlessly boring team to watch. Had to find something else to watch for entertainment. On the bright side you can say the Red Sox are playing October baseball, albeit not very well. Usually the end of the season brings on sadness that there's no baseball for awhile. I can honestly say this year's team alleviated that. I've seen enough baseball from the 2022 Red Sox. I'm good. It makes you miss the Red Sox of old, awesome hitting with terrible pitching so even losing was entertaining. I doubt next year can possibly be this bad though
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Post by station13 on Oct 1, 2022 15:56:31 GMT -5
pitching has no idea how to approach 2 strike. Always getting punked on it.
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Post by taiwansox on Oct 1, 2022 15:59:21 GMT -5
Just realized we haven’t scored yet this series lol
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Post by station13 on Oct 1, 2022 16:06:56 GMT -5
Kelly is giving up a a cycle here
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 1, 2022 16:14:43 GMT -5
They are such a relentlessly boring team to watch. Had to find something else to watch for entertainment. On the bright side you can say the Red Sox are playing October baseball, albeit not very well. Usually the end of the season brings on sadness that there's no baseball for awhile. I can honestly say this year's team alleviated that. I've seen enough baseball from the 2022 Red Sox. I'm good. It makes you miss the Red Sox of old, awesome hitting with terrible pitching so even losing was entertaining. I doubt next year can possibly be this bad though Might be one of those things where it gets worse before it gets better. The Sox got hit hard with injuries but that doesnt really encapsulate why they're so bad. The Ray's lost Franco and their top pitchers and keep rolling. A lot of teams have injuries. What pitchers these days stay healthy? They are just so inferior to Toronto, Tampa, and New York, although Toronto has beaten them to a pulp in a way I've never seen. Get outscored 16-0 over 2 days? That's nothing. They lost 28-5 in a game against them. And Baltimore is already better and that gulf will also widen as their farm system is among the best in baseball. I know the Sox have money to spend but its hard to see how they narrow the gap. This isn't a case of they're suddenly healthy again and they're good to go. This team flat out isn't particularly good.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 1, 2022 16:24:19 GMT -5
It makes you miss the Red Sox of old, awesome hitting with terrible pitching so even losing was entertaining. I doubt next year can possibly be this bad though Might be one of those things where it gets worse before it gets better. The Sox got hit hard with injuries but that doesnt really encapsulate why they're so bad. The Ray's lost Franco and their top pitchers and keep rolling. A lot of teams have injuries. What pitchers these days stay healthy? They are just so inferior to Toronto, Tampa, and New York, although Toronto has beaten them to a pulp in a way I've never seen. Get outscored 16-0 over 2 days? That's nothing. They lost 28-5 in a game against them. And Baltimore is already better and that gulf will also widen as their farm system is among the best in baseball. I know the Sox have money to spend but its hard to see how they narrow the gap. This isn't a case of they're suddenly healthy again and they're good to go. This team flat out isn't particularly good. On paper, they shouldn't be this bad (the bats, anyway) - Xander is still there, Raffi, Kiké, JD, Verdugo - so what else is going on? Is this a team just going through the motions (which would certainly make sense) - is it coaching (as in skills, approaches)? Motivation (Cora and the coaches)? Attitude - is the team flat because of the impending contract situations? What they do/don't do at the deadlines? Who they've let walk? It just feels to me as though there is more wrong with this team than just getting hit by injuries. Does the team overrate its talent? This has to be embarrassing for ownership. I would think Bloom too. Fascinating off season ahead for sure.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 1, 2022 16:38:16 GMT -5
Sad to see Xander 4 for his last 32 with a batting champion recently in sight. More likely to fall under .300 by the end of the season at this rate.
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Post by station13 on Oct 1, 2022 16:40:23 GMT -5
Sad to see Xander 4 for his last 32 with a batting champion recently in sight. More likely to fall under .300 by the end of the season at this rate. When BABIP doesn't favors him, it's ugly.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 1, 2022 16:48:33 GMT -5
Might be one of those things where it gets worse before it gets better. The Sox got hit hard with injuries but that doesnt really encapsulate why they're so bad. The Ray's lost Franco and their top pitchers and keep rolling. A lot of teams have injuries. What pitchers these days stay healthy? They are just so inferior to Toronto, Tampa, and New York, although Toronto has beaten them to a pulp in a way I've never seen. Get outscored 16-0 over 2 days? That's nothing. They lost 28-5 in a game against them. And Baltimore is already better and that gulf will also widen as their farm system is among the best in baseball. I know the Sox have money to spend but its hard to see how they narrow the gap. This isn't a case of they're suddenly healthy again and they're good to go. This team flat out isn't particularly good. On paper, they shouldn't be this bad (the bats, anyway) - Xander is still there, Raffi, Kiké, JD, Verdugo - so what else is going on? Is this a team just going through the motions (which would certainly make sense) - is it coaching (as in skills, approaches)? Motivation (Cora and the coaches)? Attitude - is the team flat because of the impending contract situations? What they do/don't do at the deadlines? Who they've let walk? It just feels to me as though there is more wrong with this team than just getting hit by injuries. Does the team overrate its talent? This has to be embarrassing for ownership. I would think Bloom too. Fascinating off season ahead for sure. The pitching is awful. The bullpen is bad. The offense isn't good enough to offset the pitching and defense. A bunch of other teams are simply a good deal better. With this lineup there are only 2 hitters who are substantially better than average, and ones a free agent soon and the other is next year. JD is on the decline and roughly average. Hernandez, when healthy, is ok, but nothing special. I think Casas will be good. I'm a believer in him. I've seen much better offensive Red Sox teams than this one which lacks power, speed, and plate discipline. I do believe Casas will help a good deal there in 2 of those areas. I don't think Cora or the coaches were much of a help, but I'd say the talent was lesser than at least half the teams in the league. Ultimately that's on Bloom to fix. It's not like they can run this same team back with another manager and coaches and expect to do much better.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 1, 2022 17:23:12 GMT -5
There shouldn't be one fan satisfied with the production by Story this year. Matter of fact, I am pretty sure he is pissed about it more than anyone. benizinger may have overstated it, but that is his posting style, some people take him too literally.
The WAR / Value is a red herring. He was expected to do more, and he didn't. Even when he was healthy. We need more from him next year to get back to Red Sox success. We don't need all the value coming from defense, we need consistent offense from him., not month long hot streak. He is a big part of the future of this club.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 1, 2022 17:24:50 GMT -5
It makes you miss the Red Sox of old, awesome hitting with terrible pitching so even losing was entertaining. I doubt next year can possibly be this bad though Might be one of those things where it gets worse before it gets better. The Sox got hit hard with injuries but that doesnt really encapsulate why they're so bad. The Ray's lost Franco and their top pitchers and keep rolling. A lot of teams have injuries. What pitchers these days stay healthy?They are just so inferior to Toronto, Tampa, and New York, although Toronto has beaten them to a pulp in a way I've never seen. Get outscored 16-0 over 2 days? That's nothing. They lost 28-5 in a game against them. And Baltimore is already better and that gulf will also widen as their farm system is among the best in baseball. I know the Sox have money to spend but its hard to see how they narrow the gap. This isn't a case of they're suddenly healthy again and they're good to go. This team flat out isn't particularly good. I'll give you the Rays, and the reason they've been able to overcome injuries is that they have a powerful pipeline of young talent that's running at full blast. That's not the case for the Red Sox because of how the farm bottom out in the late 2010s (though it's starting to get better; Casas and Bello, among others, are starting to be able to plug some holes).
But it's too much to wand wave their injuries away with "well every team has injuries." Their top three starters (Sale, Eovaldi, Wacha) combined for 228 innings. For the Yankees, Cole, Cortes, and Taillon combined for 517 IP. For the Blue Jays Gausman, Manoah, and Stripling combined for 485. The Mariners got 495 out of their top three. Etc. Through injuries the Red Sox essentially redistributed a fifth of their innings from front line starters to the likes of Winckowski, Seabold, and Crawford.
Anyway, no, it's not the only problem with the team. But it has definitely been their single biggest problem.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 1, 2022 17:27:17 GMT -5
There shouldn't be one fan satisfied with the production by Story this year. Matter of fact, I am pretty sure he is pissed about it more than anyone. benizinger may have overstated it, but that is his posting style, some people take him too literally. The WAR / Value is a red herring. He was expected to do more, and he didn't. Even when he was healthy. We need more from him next year to get back to Red Sox success. We don't need all the value coming from defense, we need consistent offense from him., not month long hot streak. He is a big part of the future of this club. I'm not "satisfied" with how much time he lost to injury. But if he stays healthy and puts up elite defense and average offensive production for the next 5 years to the tune of 4 WAR per season I don't understand why any fan shouldn't be satisfied with that.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 1, 2022 17:31:32 GMT -5
There shouldn't be one fan satisfied with the production by Story this year. Matter of fact, I am pretty sure he is pissed about it more than anyone. benizinger may have overstated it, but that is his posting style, some people take him too literally. The WAR / Value is a red herring. He was expected to do more, and he didn't. Even when he was healthy. We need more from him next year to get back to Red Sox success. We don't need all the value coming from defense, we need consistent offense from him., not month long hot streak. He is a big part of the future of this club. I'm not "satisfied" with how much time he lost to injury. But if he stays healthy and puts up elite defense and average offensive production for the next 5 years to the tune of 4 WAR per season I don't understand why any fan shouldn't be satisfied with that. but he didn't. At what point does it become about real time production. It was a lost season for him. It isn't compromising a belief to say so.
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Post by manfred on Oct 1, 2022 17:41:58 GMT -5
There shouldn't be one fan satisfied with the production by Story this year. Matter of fact, I am pretty sure he is pissed about it more than anyone. benizinger may have overstated it, but that is his posting style, some people take him too literally. The WAR / Value is a red herring. He was expected to do more, and he didn't. Even when he was healthy. We need more from him next year to get back to Red Sox success. We don't need all the value coming from defense, we need consistent offense from him., not month long hot streak. He is a big part of the future of this club. I'm not "satisfied" with how much time he lost to injury. But if he stays healthy and puts up elite defense and average offensive production for the next 5 years to the tune of 4 WAR per season I don't understand why any fan shouldn't be satisfied with that. I am more on your side in this than the anti-Story-ers, but I would not be satisfied with average offense. He wasn’t signed to be a defense-first guy… they could’ve gotten a glove-first 2b for much less dough. They *need* him to hit more than this. I also think we should be slightly nervous about expecting elite defense into his mid-30s, especially with his arm already in decline. That said, I view this as a lost year that might not represent how he hits next year at all. Clean slate.
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Post by dirtdog on Oct 1, 2022 18:01:13 GMT -5
Cant say say I am sorry I missed humiliation number two. Looks like Bello got hammered and the offense never got on the plane in Boston.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Oct 1, 2022 18:11:26 GMT -5
As far as the hitting goes, i think the loss of Tim Hyers was huge. I never was enamored with Fatse keep saying to stay with the process. what process..Swinging at pitchers pitches and no situational hitting to speak of? Injuries were a definite problem with the starting pitching, but fundamentals were also severely lacking and that is on the coaches.
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Post by juanpena on Oct 1, 2022 19:01:39 GMT -5
Might be one of those things where it gets worse before it gets better. The Sox got hit hard with injuries but that doesnt really encapsulate why they're so bad. The Ray's lost Franco and their top pitchers and keep rolling. A lot of teams have injuries. What pitchers these days stay healthy?They are just so inferior to Toronto, Tampa, and New York, although Toronto has beaten them to a pulp in a way I've never seen. Get outscored 16-0 over 2 days? That's nothing. They lost 28-5 in a game against them. And Baltimore is already better and that gulf will also widen as their farm system is among the best in baseball. I know the Sox have money to spend but its hard to see how they narrow the gap. This isn't a case of they're suddenly healthy again and they're good to go. This team flat out isn't particularly good. I'll give you the Rays, and the reason they've been able to overcome injuries is that they have a powerful pipeline of young talent that's running at full blast. That's not the case for the Red Sox because of how the farm bottom out in the late 2010s (though it's starting to get better; Casas and Bello, among others, are starting to be able to plug some holes).
But it's too much to wand wave their injuries away with "well every team has injuries." Their top three starters (Sale, Eovaldi, Wacha) combined for 228 innings. For the Yankees, Cole, Cortes, and Taillon combined for 517 IP. For the Blue Jays Gausman, Manoah, and Stripling combined for 485. The Mariners got 495 out of their top three. Etc. Through injuries the Red Sox essentially redistributed a fifth of their innings from front line starters to the likes of Winckowski, Seabold, and Crawford.
Anyway, no, it's not the only problem with the team. But it has definitely been their single biggest problem.
Cortes began the season as the Yankees No. 5 starter, after Cole, Severino (who's lost significant time due to injury), Taillon and Montgomery. Stripling wasn't even in the Jays rotation to start year. The starters were Gausman, Berrios, Ryu, Manoah and Kikuchi. Their No. 3 starter to open the season, Ryu, threw 27 innings.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 1, 2022 19:16:44 GMT -5
I'll give you the Rays, and the reason they've been able to overcome injuries is that they have a powerful pipeline of young talent that's running at full blast. That's not the case for the Red Sox because of how the farm bottom out in the late 2010s (though it's starting to get better; Casas and Bello, among others, are starting to be able to plug some holes).
But it's too much to wand wave their injuries away with "well every team has injuries." Their top three starters (Sale, Eovaldi, Wacha) combined for 228 innings. For the Yankees, Cole, Cortes, and Taillon combined for 517 IP. For the Blue Jays Gausman, Manoah, and Stripling combined for 485. The Mariners got 495 out of their top three. Etc. Through injuries the Red Sox essentially redistributed a fifth of their innings from front line starters to the likes of Winckowski, Seabold, and Crawford. Anyway, no, it's not the only problem with the team. But it has definitely been their single biggest problem.
Cortes began the season as the Yankees No. 5 starter, after Cole, Severino (who's lost significant time due to injury), Taillon and Montgomery. Stripling wasn't even in the Jays rotation to start year. The starters were Gausman, Berrios, Ryu, Manoah and Kikuchi. Their No. 3 starter to open the season, Ryu, threw 27 innings. Exactly. Was it surprising that pitchers with an extensive history of injuries get injured?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 1, 2022 19:23:33 GMT -5
I'm not "satisfied" with how much time he lost to injury. But if he stays healthy and puts up elite defense and average offensive production for the next 5 years to the tune of 4 WAR per season I don't understand why any fan shouldn't be satisfied with that. I am more on your side in this than the anti-Story-ers, but I would not be satisfied with average offense. He wasn’t signed to be a defense-first guy… they could’ve gotten a glove-first 2b for much less dough. They *need* him to hit more than this. I also think we should be slightly nervous about expecting elite defense into his mid-30s, especially with his arm already in decline. That said, I view this as a lost year that might not represent how he hits next year at all. Clean slate. Its also possible Story is trending downward offensively. He wasn't particularly good in 2021 with Colorado. My concern with his deal is that as he hits the back half of his deal he could be increasingly below average offensively and will be a 2b or 3b as his SS days will be in the rearview mirror. I wouldnt surprised if by 2025 the word albatross is being used to describe his contract. I certainly hope that's not the case. He's above average defensively but I am hoping that was a plus, not a counterbalance to his offense. His offense is average at this point. Hope he gets back to being well above average offensively.
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Post by xdmo on Oct 1, 2022 20:03:26 GMT -5
Has anyone own this team like Springer? George Springer probably has a .1500 Ops against the Sox in his career against them. It feels that way.
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Post by xdmo on Oct 1, 2022 20:12:42 GMT -5
Bello gave up 12 base runners in 4 innings. Three on base a inning on average. Maybe he's wearing down after his longest season of his career so far.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 1, 2022 20:50:39 GMT -5
Cant say say I am sorry I missed humiliation number two. Looks like Bello got hammered and the offense never got on the plane in Boston. Bello gave up two hits that were hard-hit and had an xBA of .200 or better, a 2-out, base-empty double by Hernandez in the 3rd and a liner by Springer leading off the 4th.
He gave up four fly balls that were hit 72.4, 77.5, 82.0, and 87.0, with launch angles of 16, 16, 17, and 24, distances of 206, 213, 229, and 238, and XBA's of .800, .920 ,940, and .950. Two of those four started the 2nd inning, sandwiched around a 75.7, 31 degrees, .310 fly to LF that Phan backed up on and that some LFers might have made a very nice catch on, and a wild pitch. After that there was another WP, and that was the first 2 runs.
The second two runs scored via the Hernandrz 2-out double, a walk, and the last of the magic semi-bloopers, a double to right by Danny Jansen, who had the RBI magic blooper in the first. I believe some guys have a skill for hitting bloop singles (Xander seems to) but I don't think that too many of them are backup catchers.
Meanwile, Bello pitched out of a cheapo jam in the first, starting with Springer's magic blooper and a ball Bichette pounded into the ground for a .190 xBA single; he fanned Guerrrero and Kirk and got Chapman on an easy grounder. He did the same think in the 4th when Bichette followed Springer's legit single with a 93.8, .350 blooper to right. He got Guerrero to hit a 69.4, 3-foot grounder to Raffy, then threw seven straight balls but came back to get Chapman to hit a .300 xBA grounder for a GDP.
The Jays went 6 for 6 on expected hits and 4 for 11 on expected outs, 2 more than you ordinarily get by luck. None of the outs were remotely lucky.
I just ran the numbers, and teams average 0.37 bloop or flare hits (fly ball hits of less than 300 feet) per game. One of every 65 balls put into play is a bloop or flare hit.
But wait, there's more! How common is a magic semi-blooper, one with an xBA of .700 or better? One in 149 balls in play (with a .914 BA). Bello's, of course, had extra-special magic, all with .800 xBA or better ... that's 1 in 232 balls put into play (with a .947 BA).
So giving up 4 bloop / flare hits, magic or otherwise, out of 16 balls put in play is ... 4 more than expected. Every one of those balls would have been an out had the hitters made somewhat better contact.
But wait, there's even more! All four magic bloopers were untimely. Two led off innings, and the other two each came with 2 runners on, and scored 3 of them.
If you turn the six cheap hits into outs, the 4 runs given up in the first 3 innings become ... five scoreless innings. The final game box score line is 6 4 0 0 2 4.
In both versions, he faces Springer, a red-hot Bichette, Guerrero, Kirk, and Chapman for a third time and is not score on.
I've been meaning to do a study of whether any hitters or pitchers have a blooper skill or weakness, respectively. That should happen in the off-season ...
Edit: using the 1 in 150 chance of a ball put into play being a .700+ xBA fly ball of less than 300 feet ... the odds of Bello giving up 4 out of 16 are about 300,000 to 1. See the Bello thread for what that might mean.
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Post by jclmontana on Oct 1, 2022 22:42:55 GMT -5
The front office and Cora are probably on a really short leash next year, like a month into the season short leash. The suck this year has been multi-Factorial, but this team is miserable in the sum is greater than it’s parts sort of way. Either Bloom can figure it out or he can’t. I think he can’t, that Bloom is a really sharp mind that isn’t suited to the big chair. I have only been following the Sox for 19 years, but this is by far the least engagingly, most worthless team that I can remember.
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 1, 2022 22:59:15 GMT -5
The front office and Cora are probably on a really short leash next year, like a month into the season short leash. The suck this year has been multi-Factorial, but this team is miserable in the sum is greater than it’s parts sort of way. Either Bloom can figure it out or he can’t. I think he can’t, that Bloom is a really sharp mind that isn’t suited to the big chair. I have only been following the Sox for 19 years, but this is by far the least engagingly, most worthless team that I can remember. Lol. A month into next season short leash. Thats not even remotely true.
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 2, 2022 1:52:56 GMT -5
The front office and Cora are probably on a really short leash next year, like a month into the season short leash. The suck this year has been multi-Factorial, but this team is miserable in the sum is greater than it’s parts sort of way. Either Bloom can figure it out or he can’t. I think he can’t, that Bloom is a really sharp mind that isn’t suited to the big chair. I have only been following the Sox for 19 years, but this is by far the least engagingly, most worthless team that I can remember. That's some recency bias. 2012, 2014, 2015 and 2020 come to mind.
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